Hemispheric black carbon increase after the 13th-century Maori arrival in New Zealand.

New Zealand was among the last habitable places on earth to be colonized by humans1. Charcoal records indicate that wildfires were rare prior to colonization and widespread following the 13th- to 14th-century Maori settlement2, but the precise timing and magnitude of associated biomass-burning emissions are unknown1,3, as are effects on light-absorbing black carbon aerosol concentrations over the pristine Southern Ocean and Antarctica4. Here we used an array of well-dated Antarctic ice-core records to show that while black carbon deposition rates were stable over continental Antarctica during the past two millennia, they were approximately threefold higher over the northern Antarctic Peninsula during the past 700 years. Aerosol modelling5 demonstrates that the observed deposition could result only from increased emissions poleward of 40° S-implicating fires in Tasmania, New Zealand and Patagonia-but only New Zealand palaeofire records indicate coincident increases. Rapid deposition increases started in 1297 (±30 s.d.) in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, consistent with the late 13th-century Maori settlement and New Zealand black carbon emissions of 36 (±21 2 s.d.) Gg y-1 during peak deposition in the 16th century. While charcoal and pollen records suggest earlier, climate-modulated burning in Tasmania and southern Patagonia6,7, deposition in Antarctica shows that black carbon emissions from burning in New Zealand dwarfed other preindustrial emissions in these regions during the past 2,000 years, providing clear evidence of large-scale environmental effects associated with early human activities across the remote Southern Hemisphere.

Increasing Accumulation of Perfluorocarboxylate Contaminants Revealed in an Antarctic Firn Core (1958-2017).

Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) are synthetic chemicals with a variety of industrial and consumer applications that are now widely distributed in the global environment. Here, we report the measurement of six perfluorocarboxylates (PFCA, C4-C9) in a firn (granular compressed snow) core collected from a non-coastal, high-altitude site in Dronning Maud Land in Eastern Antarctica. Snow accumulation of the extracted core dated from 1958 to 2017, a period coinciding with the advent, use, and geographical shift in the global industrial production of poly/perfluoroalkylated substances, including PFAA. We observed increasing PFCA accumulation in snow over this time period, with chemical fluxes peaking in 2009-2013 for perfluorooctanoate (PFOA, C8) and nonanoate (PFNA, C9) with little evidence of a decline in these chemicals despite supposed recent global curtailments in their production. In contrast, the levels of perfluorobutanoate (PFBA, C4) increased markedly since 2000, with the highest fluxes in the uppermost snow layers. These findings are consistent with those previously made in the Arctic and can be attributed to chlorofluorocarbon replacements (e.g., hydrofluoroethers) as an inadvertent consequence of global regulation.

Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability.

Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers, disintegration of floating ice shelves and a 'greening' through the expansion in range of various flora. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion, local sea-ice loss, an increase in westerly winds, and changes in the strength and location of low-high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation.

Synchronous volcanic eruptions and abrupt climate change ∼17.7 ka plausibly linked by stratospheric ozone depletion.

Glacial-state greenhouse gas concentrations and Southern Hemisphere climate conditions persisted until ∼17.7 ka, when a nearly synchronous acceleration in deglaciation was recorded in paleoclimate proxies in large parts of the Southern Hemisphere, with many changes ascribed to a sudden poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and subsequent climate impacts. We used high-resolution chemical measurements in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide, Byrd, and other ice cores to document a unique, ∼192-y series of halogen-rich volcanic eruptions exactly at the start of accelerated deglaciation, with tephra identifying the nearby Mount Takahe volcano as the source. Extensive fallout from these massive eruptions has been found >2,800 km from Mount Takahe. Sulfur isotope anomalies and marked decreases in ice core bromine consistent with increased surface UV radiation indicate that the eruptions led to stratospheric ozone depletion. Rather than a highly improbable coincidence, circulation and climate changes extending from the Antarctic Peninsula to the subtropics-similar to those associated with modern stratospheric ozone depletion over Antarctica-plausibly link the Mount Takahe eruptions to the onset of accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation ∼17.7 ka.

Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history.

Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Wilkes subglacial basin ice sheet response to Southern Ocean warming during late Pleistocene interglacials.

The response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past intervals of oceanic and atmospheric warming is still not well constrained but is critical for understanding both past and future sea-level change. Furthermore, the ice sheet in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin appears to have undergone thinning and ice discharge events during recent decades. Here we combine glaciological evidence on ice sheet elevation from the TALDICE ice core with offshore sedimentological records and ice sheet modelling experiments to reconstruct the ice dynamics in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin over the past 350,000 years. Our results indicate that the Wilkes Subglacial Basin experienced an extensive retreat 330,000 years ago and a more limited retreat 125,000 years ago. These changes coincide with warmer Southern Ocean temperatures and elevated global mean sea level during those interglacial periods, confirming the sensitivity of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to ocean warming and its potential role in sea-level change.

Improved estimates of preindustrial biomass burning reduce the magnitude of aerosol climate forcing in the Southern Hemisphere.

Fire plays a pivotal role in shaping terrestrial ecosystems and the chemical composition of the atmosphere and thus influences Earth's climate. The trend and magnitude of fire activity over the past few centuries are controversial, which hinders understanding of preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative forcing. Here, we present evidence from records of 14 Antarctic ice cores and 1 central Andean ice core, suggesting that historical fire activity in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) exceeded present-day levels. To understand this observation, we use a global fire model to show that overall SH fire emissions could have declined by 30% over the 20th century, possibly because of the rapid expansion of land use for agriculture and animal production in middle to high latitudes. Radiative forcing calculations suggest that the decreasing trend in SH fire emissions over the past century largely compensates for the cooling effect of increasing aerosols from fossil fuel and biofuel sources.

Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core.

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long--28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

Atmospheric trends and radiative forcings of CF4 and C2F6 inferred from firn air.

The atmospheric histories of two potent greenhouse gases, tetrafluoromethane (CF4) and hexafluoroethane (C2F6), have been reconstructed for the 20th century based on firn air measurements from both hemispheres. The reconstructed atmospheric trends show that the mixing ratios of both CF4 and C2F6 have increased during the 20th century by factors of approximately 2 and approximately 10, respectively. Initially, the increasing mixing ratios coincided with the rise in primary aluminum production. However, a slower atmospheric growth rate for CF4 appears to be evident during the 1990s, which supports recent aluminum industry reports of reduced CF4 emissions. This work illustrates the changing relationship between CF4 and C2F6 that is likely to be largely the result of both reduced emissions from the aluminum industry and faster growing emissions of C2F6 from the semiconductor industry. Measurements of C2F6 in the older firn air indicate a natural background mixing ratio of <0.3 parts per trillion (ppt), demonstrating that natural sources of this gas are negligible. However, CF4 was deduced to have a preindustrial mixing ratio of 34 -1 ppt (-50% of contemporary levels). This is in good agreement with the previous work of Harnisch et al. (18) and provides independent confirmation of their results. As a result of the large global warming potentials of CF4 and C2F6, these results have important implications for radiative forcing calculations. The radiative forcings of CF4 and C2F6 are shown to have increased over the past 50 years to values in 2001 of 4.1 x 10(-3) Wm(-2) and 7.5 x 10(-4) Wm(-2), respectively, relative to preindustrial concentrations. These forcings are small compared to present day forcings due to the major greenhouse gases but, if the current trends continue, they will continue to increase since both gases have essentially infinite lifetimes. There is, therefore, a large incentive to reduce perfluorocarbon emissions such that through the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, the atmospheric growth rates may decline in the future.