Limited alpine climatic warming and modeled phenology advancement for three alpine species in the Northeast United States.

UNLABELLED: • PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Most alpine plants in the Northeast United States are perennial and flower early in the growing season, extending their limited growing season. Concurrently, they risk the loss of reproductive efforts to late frosts. Quantifying long-term trends in northeastern alpine flower phenology and late-spring/early-summer frost risk is limited by a dearth of phenology and climate data, except for Mount Washington, New Hampshire (1916 m a.s.l.).• METHODS: Logistic phenology models for three northeastern US alpine species (Diapensia lapponica, Carex bigelowii and Vaccinium vitis-idaea) were developed from 4 yr (2008-2011) of phenology and air temperature measurements from 12 plots proximate to Mount Washington's long-term summit meteorological station. Plot-level air temperature, the logistic phenology models, and Mount Washington's climate data were used to hindcast model yearly (1935-2011) floral phenology and frost damage risk for the focal species.• KEY RESULTS: Day of year and air growing degree-days with threshold temperatures of -4°C (D. lapponica and C. bigelowii) and -2°C (V. vitis-idaea) best predicted flowering. Modeled historic flowering dates trended significantly earlier but the 77-yr change was small (1.2-2.1 d) and did not significantly increase early-flowering risk from late-spring/early-summer frost damage.• CONCLUSIONS: Modeled trends in phenological advancement and sensitivity for three northeastern alpine species are less pronounced compared with lower elevations in the region, and this small shift in flower timing did not increase risk of frost damage. Potential reasons for limited earlier phenological advancement at higher elevations include a slower warming trend and increased cloud exposure with elevation and/or inadequate chilling requirements.

Distinct latitudinal patterns of shifting spring phenology across the Appalachian Trail Corridor.

Warming associated with climate change will advance the onset of spring phenology for many forest plants across the Eastern United States. Understory forbs and spring ephemerals that fix a disproportionate amount of carbon during early spring may be negatively affected by earlier canopy closure; however, information on the spatial patterns of phenological change for these communities is still lacking. To assess the potential for changes in spring phenological windows, we synthesized observations from the Appalachian Mountain Club's (AMCs) Mountain Watch (MW) project, the National Phenology Network (NPN), and AMC's iNaturalist projects between 2004 and 2022 (n = 118,250) across the length of the Appalachian Trail (AT) Corridor (34° N-46° N latitude). We used hierarchical Bayesian modeling to examine the sensitivity of spring flowering and leaf-out for 11 understory species and 14 canopy tree species to mean spring temperature (April-June). We conducted analyses across the AT Corridor, partitioned by regions of 4° latitude (south, mid-Atlantic, and north). Spring phenologies for both understory plants and canopy trees advanced with warming (~6 and ~3 days/°C, respectively). However, the sensitivity of each group varied by latitude, with the phenology of trees and understory plants advancing to a greater degree in the mid-Atlantic region (~10 days/°C) than in the southern or northern regions (~5 days/°C). While we find evidence that phenological windows remain stable in the southern and mid-Atlantic portions of the AT, we observed an expansion of the spring phenological window in the north where there was greater understory forb temperature sensitivity compared with trees (~2.7 days/°C). Our analyses indicate the differential sensitivity of forest plant phenology to potential warming across a large latitudinal gradient in the Eastern United States. Further, evidence for a temperature-driven expansion of the spring phenological window suggests a potential beneficial effect for understory plants in the northern AT, although phenological mismatch with potential pollinators and increased vulnerability to late winter frosts are possible. Using extensive citizen-science datasets allows us to synthesize regional- and continental-scale data to explore spatial and temporal trends in spring phenology related to warming. Such data can help to standardize approaches in phenological research and its application to forest climate resiliency.

Resource-based niches provide a basis for plant species diversity and dominance in arctic tundra.

Ecologists have long been intrigued by the ways co-occurring species divide limiting resources. Such resource partitioning, or niche differentiation, may promote species diversity by reducing competition. Although resource partitioning is an important determinant of species diversity and composition in animal communities, its importance in structuring plant communities has been difficult to resolve. This is due mainly to difficulties in studying how plants compete for below-ground resources. Here we provide evidence from a 15N-tracer field experiment showing that plant species in a nitrogen-limited, arctic tundra community were differentiated in timing, depth and chemical form of nitrogen uptake, and that species dominance was strongly correlated with uptake of the most available soil nitrogen forms. That is, the most productive species used the most abundant nitrogen forms, and less productive species used less abundant forms. To our knowledge, this is the first documentation that the composition of a plant community is related to partitioning of differentially available forms of a single limiting resource.