Prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity in Australian baby boomers: the Busselton healthy ageing study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Chronic medical conditions accumulate within individuals with age. However, knowledge concerning the trends, patterns and determinants of multimorbidity remains limited. This study assessed the prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity using extensive individual phenotyping in a general population of Australian middle-aged adults. METHODS: Participants (n = 5029, 55% female), born between 1946 and 1964 and attending the cross-sectional phase of the Busselton Healthy Ageing Study (BHAS) between 2010 and 2015, were studied. Prevalence of 21 chronic conditions was estimated using clinical measurement, validated instrument scores and/or self-reported doctor-diagnosis. Non-random patterns of multimorbidity were explored using observed/expected (O/E) prevalence ratios and latent class analysis (LCA). Variables associated with numbers of conditions and class of multimorbidity were investigated. RESULTS: The individual prevalence of 21 chronic conditions ranged from 2 to 54% and multimorbidity was common with 73% of the cohort having 2 or more chronic conditions. (mean ± SD 2.75 ± 1.84, median = 2.00, range 0-13). The prevalence of multimorbidity increased with age, obesity, physical inactivity, tobacco smoking and family history of asthma, diabetes, myocardial infarct or cancer. There were 13 pairs and 27 triplets of conditions identified with a prevalence > 1.5% and O/E > 1.5. Of the triplets, arthritis (> 50%), bowel disease (> 33%) and depression-anxiety (> 33%) were observed most commonly. LCA modelling identified 4 statistically and clinically distinct classes of multimorbidity labelled as: 1) "Healthy" (70%) with average of 1.95 conditions; 2) "Respiratory and Atopy" (11%, 3.65 conditions); 3) "Non-cardiometabolic" (14%, 4.77 conditions), and 4) "Cardiometabolic" (5%, 6.32 conditions). Predictors of multimorbidity class membership differed between classes and differed from predictors of number of co-occurring conditions. CONCLUSION: Multimorbidity is common among middle-aged adults from a general population. Some conditions associated with ageing such as arthritis, bowel disease and depression-anxiety co-occur in clinically distinct patterns and at higher prevalence than expected by chance. These findings may inform further studies into shared biological and environmental causes of co-occurring conditions of ageing. Recognition of distinct patterns of multimorbidity may aid in a holistic approach to care management in individuals presenting with multiple chronic conditions, while also guiding health resource allocation in ageing populations.

Retinol supplementation and mesothelioma incidence in workers earlier exposed to blue asbestos (Crocidolite) at Wittenoom, Western Australia.

Owing to the high rates of malignant mesothelioma in workers exposed to crocidolite earlier at Wittenoom and evidence of protection against cancer by vitamin A, a population-based cancer prevention programme providing retinol supplements (25 000 IU/day) was commenced in 1990. The former workers at Wittenoom known to be alive and living in Western Australia in June 1990 constitute the study population. The participants were classified into two groups: those who received supplemental retinol (intervention group) and those who received none (comparison group). The relative rate of mesothelioma for those receiving retinol was estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for cumulative asbestos exposure and age at first exposure to asbestos. Nine hundred and twenty-eight former Wittenoom workers received retinol at some stage of the programme, whereas 1471 workers never received retinol (comparison group). Those who received retinol were younger, had a greater exposure to asbestos and smoked less than the comparison group. There were 65 cases of mesothelioma in the retinol group and 88 in the comparison group. After adjustment, the hazard ratio was 0.99 (95% confidence interval=0.70-1.41). This result did not alter when the participants who received only retinol once or those who received beta-carotene earlier were excluded from the analysis. In conclusion, this study provides little support for possible preventive effects of retinol against mesothelioma in workers exposed to blue asbestos.