Adjusting mobile phone data to account for children's travel and the impact on measles dynamics in Zambia.

Models of measles transmission can be used to identify areas of high risk to tailor immunization strategies. Estimates of spatial connectivity can be derived from data such as mobile phone records, however it is not clear how this maps to the movement of children who are more likely to be infected. Using travel surveys across two districts in Zambia and national mobile phone data, we compared estimates of out-of-district travel for the population captured in the mobile phone data and child-specific travel from travel surveys. We then evaluated the impact of unadjusted and adjusted connectivity measures on simulated measles virus introduction events across Zambia. The number of trips made by children from the travel survey was three to five times lower than the general population estimates from mobile phone data. This decreased the percentage of districts with measles virus introduction events from 78% when using unadjusted data to 51% - 64% following adjustment. Failure to account for age-specific heterogeneities in travel estimated from mobile phone data resulted in overestimating subnational areas at high risk of introduction events, which could divert mitigation efforts to districts that are at lower risk.

Tracking Progress Toward Elimination of Mother to Child Transmission of HIV in Zambia: Findings from the Early Infant Diagnosis of HIV Program (2009-2017).

BACKGROUND: We carried out analyses of early infant testing results at Livingstone Central Hospital in Zambia to assess time of testing, linkages to care and availability of test results for clinical decision making. METHODS: We abstracted data from registers of HIV-exposed infants who had dried blood spots cards (DBS) collected for DNA-PCR from January 2009 to December 2017. Only those tested from 2014 to 2017 had additional data which were used to estimate risk factors for mother-to-child HIV transmission using logistic regression models. RESULTS: DBS were collected from 2630 children. The proportion of HIV-positive tests decreased from 21% in 2009 to 2% in 2016 and 2017. Median turnaround time for results was 9 weeks (IQR: 5, 15) for HIV-negative, 7 weeks (IQR: 5, 13) for HIV-positive children. Only 2% of infants whose mothers took antiretroviral therapy (ART) were HIV positive, while 18% of infants whose mothers took short course antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) were infected. Infants of mothers who did not take ARVs had 9 times the odds of an HIV positive test (OR = 8.9, 95% CI: 3.6, 22.6). Infants of mothers who received short course ARVs were 40% less likely to get an HIV test within the first 2 months of life (OR = 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4, 0.9) compared to infants of mothers who received ART. Only 52% had a third test at median age 52 weeks (IQR: 50, 54). CONCLUSIONS: Long turnaround time for test results and low retention in care after the initial HIV test were critical challenges to clinical decision making.

Urban-rural disparities in treatment outcomes among recurrent TB cases in Southern Province, Zambia.

BACKGROUND: At least 13-20% of all Tuberculosis (TB) cases are recurrent TB. Recurrent TB has critical public health importance because recurrent TB patients have high risk of Multi-Drug Resistant TB (MDR-TB). It is critical to understand variations in the prevalence and treatment outcomes of recurrent TB between different geographical settings. The objective of our study was to estimate the prevalence of recurrent TB among TB cases and compare risk of unfavorable treatment outcomes between rural and urban settings. METHODS: In a retrospective cohort study conducted in southern province of Zambia, we used mixed effects logistic regression to asses associations between explanatory and outcome variables. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality and exposure was setting (rural/urban). Data was abstracted from the facility TB registers. RESULTS: Overall 3566 recurrent TB cases were diagnosed among 25,533 TB patients. The prevalence of recurrent TB was 15.3% (95% CI: 14.8 15.9) in urban and 11.3% (95% CI: 10.7 12.0) in rural areas. Death occurred in 197 (5.5%), 103 (2.9%) were lost to follow-up, and 113 (3.2%) failed treatment. Rural settings had 70% higher risk of death (adjusted OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2 2.7). Risk of lost to follow-up was twice higher in rural than urban (adjusted OR: 2.0 95% CI: 1.3 3.0). Compared to HIV-uninfected, HIV-infected individuals on Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) were 70% more likely to die (adjusted OR: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.2 3.1). CONCLUSION: Recurrent TB prevalence was generally high in both urban and rural settings. The risk of mortality and lost to follow-up was higher among rural patients. We recommend a well-organized Directly Observed Therapy strategy adapted to setting where heightened TB control activities are focused on areas with poor treatment outcomes.

Long-term survival outcomes of HIV infected children receiving antiretroviral therapy: an observational study from Zambia (2003-2015).

BACKGROUND: In 2017, 64% of children living with HIV in Zambia accessed Antiretroviral Therapy (ART). Despite expanded ART coverage, there is paucity of information on effectiveness of pediatric ART in reducing mortality. The aim of this research is to describe treatment outcomes, measure mortality rates and assess predictors of mortality among children receiving ART. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort study design, we abstracted routinely collected clinical data from medical records of children from birth to 15 years old, who had received ART for at least 6 months at Livingstone Central Hospital in Southern Province Zambia, between January 2003 and June 2015. The primary outcome was death. Cause of death was ascertained from medical records and death certificates. Distribution of survival times according to baseline covariates were estimated using Kaplan Meier and Cox Proportional Hazards methods. RESULTS: Overall, 1039 children were commenced on ART during the study period. The median age at treatment initiation was 3.6 years (IQR: 1.3-8.6) and 520 (50%) children were female. Of these, 71 (7%) died, 164 (16%) were lost to follow-up, 210 (20%) transferred and 594 (56%) were actively on treatment. After 4450 person years, mortality rate was 1.6/100 (95% CI: 1.4-1.8). Mortality was highest during the first 3 months of treatment (11.7/100 (95% CI: 7.6-16.3). In multivariable proportional hazards regression, the adjusted hazards of death were highest among children aged < 1 year (aHR = 3.1 (95% CI: 1.3-6.4), compared to those aged 6-15 years, WHO stage 4 (aHR =4.8 (95% CI: 2.3-10), compared to WHO stage 1 and 2. In the sensitivity analysis to address bias due to loss to follow-up, mortality increased 5 times when we assumed that all the children who were lost to follow up died within 90 days of their last visit. CONCLUSION: We observed low attrition due to mortality among children on ART. Loss to follow-up was high (16%). Mortality was highest during the first 3 months of treatment. Children aged less than one year and those with advanced WHO disease stage had higher mortality. We recommend effective interventions to improve retention in care and early diagnosis of HIV in children.

Predictors of loss to follow-up among children on long-term antiretroviral therapy in Zambia (2003-2015).

BACKGROUND: Retention in care is critical for children living with HIV taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is high in HIV treatment programs in resource limited settings. We estimated the cumulative incidence of LTFU and identified associated risk factors among children on ART at Livingstone Central Hospital (LCH), Zambia. METHODS: Using a retrospective cohort study design, we abstracted data from medical records of children who received ART between 2003 and 2015. Loss to follow-up was defined as no clinical and pharmacy contact for at least 90 days after the child missed their last scheduled clinical visit. Non-parametric competing risks models were used to estimate the cumulative incidence of death, LTFU and transfer. Cause-specific Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios of the risk factors of LTFU. RESULTS: A total of 1039 children aged 0-15 years commenced ART at LCH between 2003 and 2015. Median duration of follow-up was 3.8 years (95% CI: 1.2-6.5), median age at ART initiation was 3.6 years (IQR: 1.3-8.6), 179 (17%) started treatment during their first year of life. At least 167 (16%) were LTFU and we traced 151 (90%). Of those we traced, 39 (26%) had died, 71 (47%) defaulted, 20 (13%) continued ART at other clinics and 21 (14%) continued treatment with gaps. The cumulative incidence of LTFU for the entire cohort was 2.7% (95% CI: 1.9-3.9) at 3 months, 4.1% (95% CI: 2.9-5.4) at 6 months and 14.1% (95% CI: 12.4-16.9) after 5 years on ART. Associated risk factors were: 1) non-disclosure of HIV status at baseline, aHR = 1.9 (1.2-2.9), 2) No phone ownership, aHR = 2.1 (1.6-2.9), 3) starting treatment between 2013 to 2015, aHR = 5.6 (2.2-14.1). CONCLUSION: Among the children LTFU mortality and default were substantially high. Children who started treatment in recent years (2013-2015) had the highest hazard of LTFU. Lack of access to a phone and non-disclosure of HIV-status to the index child was associated with higher hazards of LTFU. We recommend re-enforcement of client counselling and focused follow-up strategies using modern technology such as mobile phones as adjunct to current approaches.

Clinical management of children with fever: a cross-sectional study of quality of care in rural Zambia.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate current practices and standards of evaluation and treatment of childhood febrile illness in Southern Province, Zambia. METHODS: From November to December 2013, we conducted a cross-sectional survey of facilities and health workers and we observed the health workers' interactions with febrile children and their caregivers. The facility survey recorded level of staffing, health services provided by the facility, availability and adequacy of medical equipment, availability of basic drugs and supplies and availability of treatment charts and guidelines. The health worker survey assessed respondents' training, length of service, access to national guidelines and job aids for managing illnesses, and their practice and knowledge on management of neonatal and child illnesses. We also conducted exit interviews with caregivers to collect information on demographic characteristics, chief complaints, counselling and drug dispensing practices. FINDINGS: This study included 24 health facilities, 53 health workers and 161 children presenting with fever. Facilities were insufficiently staffed, stocked and equipped to adequately manage childhood fever. Children most commonly presented with upper respiratory tract infections (46%; 69), diarrhoea (31%; 27) and malaria (10%; 16). Health workers insufficiently evaluated children for danger signs, and less than half (47%; 9/19) of children with pneumonia received appropriate antibiotic treatment. Only 57% (92/161) were tested for malaria using either rapid diagnostic tests or microscopy. CONCLUSION: Various health system challenges resulted in a substantial proportion of children receiving insufficient management and treatment of febrile illness. Interventions are needed including strengthening the availability of commodities and improving diagnosis and treatment of febrile illness.

Antiretroviral therapy improves survival among TB-HIV co-infected patients who have CD4+ T-cell count above 350cells/mm3.

BACKGROUND: Co-infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV infected individuals especially in developing countries. Early initiation of cART in these patients when CD4+ T cell count is less than 200cells/mm3 has reduced disease progression and mortality. However for patients with higher CD4+ T cell counts greater than 350cells/mm3 evidence is conflicting. In this study we seek to evaluate the effectiveness of cART in reducing mortality among TB-HIV co-infected patients with CD4 + T cells above 350cells/mm3 at the time of TB diagnosis. METHOD: In a retrospective cohort study we analyzed 337 HIV-TB co-infected patients with CD4+ T cells above 350cells/mm3 at baseline who were diagnosed between 2006 and 2012 in the southern province of Zambia. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. We estimated the effect of cART by comparing survival according to cART and controlling for differential loss to follow-up. RESULTS: Of the 257 patients on cART, 22 died (9 %) and 20 (8 %) were lost to follow-up; of 80 patients not on cART, 20 died (25 %) and 19 (24 %) were lost to follow-up. Patients treated with cART had better survival compared to those not treated (P < 0 · 0001, log-rank test). In a proportional hazard regression adjusting for Cotrimoxazole, the risk of death was reduced by 78 % with cART (95 % CI: 0 · 47, 0 · 91). In a propensity score analysis, the effect of cART was still beneficial. CONCLUSION: In patients with HIV-associated TB and CD4+ T cells above 350cells/mm3, treatment with cART reduced mortality for up to 4 years as compared to no cART and was associated with better retention in care.

Modeling the Cost of Vaccinating a Measles Zero-Dose Child in Zambia Using Three Vaccination Strategies.

Countries with moderate to high measles-containing vaccine coverage face challenges in reaching the remaining measles zero-dose children. There is growing interest in targeted vaccination activities to reach these children. We developed a framework for prioritizing districts for targeted measles and rubella supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) for Zambia in 2020, incorporating the use of the WHO's Measles Risk Assessment Tool (MRAT) and serosurveys. This framework was used to build a model comparing the cost of vaccinating one zero-dose child under three vaccination scenarios: standard nationwide SIA, targeted subnational SIA informed by MRAT, and targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and measles seroprevalence data. In the last scenario, measles seroprevalence data are acquired via either a community-based serosurvey, residual blood samples from health facilities, or community-based IgG point-of-contact rapid diagnostic testing. The deterministic model found that the standard nationwide SIA is the least cost-efficient strategy at 13.75 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated. Targeted SIA informed by MRAT was the most cost-efficient at 7.63 USD per zero-dose child, assuming that routine immunization is just as effective as subnational SIA in reaching zero-dose children. Under similar conditions, a targeted subnational SIA informed by both MRAT and seroprevalence data resulted in 8.17-8.35 USD per zero-dose child vaccinated, suggesting that use of seroprevalence to inform SIA planning may not be as cost prohibitive as previously thought. Further refinement to the decision framework incorporating additional data may yield strategies to better target the zero-dose population in a financially feasible manner.

Feasibility and acceptability of collecting dried blood spots (DBS) from children after vaccination during supplementary immunization activities to estimate measles and rubella seroprevalence.

Nested serosurveys within routine service delivery platforms such as planned supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) provide an opportunity to collect information that can be used to answer valuable questions on the effectiveness and efficiency of the delivery model to inform future activities. However, integrating research data collection in SIAs is rarely done due to concerns it will negatively impact the program. We conducted a serosurvey nested within the November 2020 measles-rubella SIA integrated with the Child Health Week activities in Zambia to evaluate this approach. In-depth interviews with the study teams and vaccination campaign staff at the vaccination sites were conducted. Recorded interviews were transcribed, transcripts were coded and then grouped into themes based on a process evaluation framework. A multi-methods analytical approach was used to assess the feasibility and acceptability of collecting dried blood spots from children during the SIA. This included a quantitative assessment of participant enrollment. The serosurvey successfully enrolled 90% of children from Child Health Week due to close coordination and teamwork between the vaccination teams and serosurvey team, in addition to substantial social mobilization efforts. Continually adjusting the sampling interval that was used to select eligible children allowed us to enroll throughout the SIA and capture a representative sample of children in attendance although it was challenging for the staff involved. As vaccination programs aim to tailor their approaches to reach the hardest-to-reach children, embedding research questions in SIAs will allow evaluation of the successes and challenges and compare alternative approaches. Lessons learned from this experience collecting data during an SIA can be applicable to future research activities embedded in SIAs or other delivery platforms.

Who is missed in a community-based survey: Assessment and implications of biases due to incomplete sampling frame in a community-based serosurvey, Choma and Ndola Districts, Zambia, 2022.

Community-based serological studies are increasingly relied upon to measure disease burden, identify population immunity gaps, and guide control and elimination strategies; however, there is little understanding of the potential for and impact of sampling biases on outcomes of interest. As part of efforts to quantify measles immunity gaps in Zambia, a community-based serological survey using stratified multi-stage cluster sampling approach was conducted in Ndola and Choma districts in May-June 2022, enrolling 1245 individuals. We carried out a follow-up study among individuals missed from the sampling frame of the serosurvey in July-August 2022, enrolling 672 individuals. We assessed the potential for and impact of biases in the community-based serosurvey by i) estimating differences in characteristics of households and individuals included and excluded (77% vs 23% of households) from the sampling frame of the serosurvey and ii) evaluating the magnitude these differences make on healthcare-seeking behavior, vaccination coverage, and measles seroprevalence. We found that missed households were 20% smaller and 25% less likely to have children. Missed individuals resided in less wealthy households, had different distributions of sex and occupation, and were more likely to seek care at health facilities. Despite these differences, simulating a survey in which missed households were included in the sampling frame resulted in less than a 5% estimated bias in these outcomes. Although community-based studies are upheld as the gold standard study design in assessing immunity gaps and underlying community health characteristics, these findings underscore the fact that sampling biases can impact the results of even well-conducted community-based surveys. Results from these studies should be interpreted in the context of the study methodology and challenges faced during implementation, which include shortcomings in establishing accurate and up-to-date sampling frames. Failure to account for these shortcomings may result in biased estimates and detrimental effects on decision-making.

Patient satisfaction among persons living with HIV/AIDS and receiving antiretroviral therapy in urban Uganda: A factor analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Patient satisfaction is an important predictor of health outcomes among patients in HIV/AIDS treatment and care, yet it is rarely measured in routine clinic settings in most of Africa. The aims of our study were to evaluate the internal validity and reliability of the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems instrument for measuring satisfaction, assess the general level of patient satisfaction, and identify the factors associated with the level of satisfaction among patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Uganda. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of 475 HIV/AIDS-infected patients from July to August 2015 in Kampala, Uganda. Eligible participants were 18 years or older, consented to the study and receiving antiretroviral therapy and outpatient care at the selected public health clinic. This study used a modified version of the validated Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) instrument to assess the level of satisfaction among HIV/AIDS patients receiving outpatient care. We collected data on socio-demographics, clinical variables and 18-items adapted from the CAHPS instrument rating satisfaction with aspects of health services. We conducted an exploratory factor analysis to assess the internal validity of the 18 items and multiple linear regression analysis of factors associated with patient satisfaction with care. RESULTS: Majority of the respondents were females (76.8%), and the mean age was 37 years (SD = 10). The modified CAHPS instrument had high internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.94) for measuring satisfaction with HIV/AIDS care. Female sex (p = 0.016), perceived providers' technical and interpersonal skills (p = 0.022), emotional health (p = 0.032), and quality of reception services (p<0.001) were significantly associated with satisfaction in this urban HIV/AIDS public clinic. CONCLUSION: The reliability of the CAHPS instrument was high for measuring satisfaction. Providers' technical and interpersonal skills, and the quality of reception services are key to achieving patient satisfaction. Health system interventions to address the gaps identified will enhance the quality of patient-centered HIV/AIDS care in the Ugandan setting.

Acceptability of serosurveys in southern Zambia: data collector and caregiver perspectives.

Background: Factors associated with whether individuals choose to participate in serosurveys are not well understood. Understanding perceptions from multiple perspectives, including the perspectives of both data collectors and participants, through a holistic model such as the socio-ecological model contextualizes individual, interpersonal, and structural level influences on survey research participation. We used a multiple methods approach to characterize reasons for serosurvey participation in communities in Southern Province, Zambia where a serosurvey was conducted in 2016. Methods: The first phase conducted focus group discussions and in-depth interviews with 24 data collectors who participated in a measles-rubella serosurvey in 2016. The second phase surveyed 34 caregivers at health facilities to identify barriers and facilitators to serosurvey participation. Emergent themes were then classified into a socio-ecological model using individual, interpersonal, and structural level constructs. Results: Common themes emerged from data collectors as well as caregivers surveyed. At the individual level, providing incentives was a facilitator, and some religious beliefs were described as a barrier to serosurvey participation. At the interpersonal level, family dynamics and community peer influences could help or hinder serosurvey participation. Community health workers were consistently named as facilitators of participation. At the structural level, concerns about specimen collection, who was selected for serosurveys, and not receiving test results arose as potential barriers. The most frequently reported facilitator was provision of information about the purpose of the serosurvey (85% of respondents). The most frequently reported barrier was lack of clarity regarding use of their blood specimen (53% of respondents). For specimen collection type, caregivers consistently preferred finger prick blood collection over both venous blood draw and oral swabs. Conclusion: Serosurvey participation was deemed acceptable to most study participants. The socio-ecological model revealed barriers and facilitators for participation to guide strategies to improve participation which can be applied to ongoing serosurveys for SARS-CoV-2. Serosurveys should continue to develop engagement plans to provide information about blood collection ahead of the serosurvey and communicate the objectives of such studies through trusted sources such as community health workers and traditional leaders.

An evaluation of the early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Zambia's routine immunization program.

Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for both populations and healthcare systems are vast. In addition to morbidity and mortality from COVID-19, the pandemic also disrupted local health systems, including reductions or delays in routine vaccination services and catch-up vaccination campaigns. These disruptions could lead to outbreaks of other infectious diseases that result in an additional burden of disease and strain on the healthcare system. We evaluated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Zambia's routine childhood immunization program in 2020 using multiple sources of data. We relied on administrative vaccination data and Zambia's 2018 Demographic and Health Survey to project national disruptions to district-specific routine childhood vaccination coverage within the pandemic year 2020. Next, we leveraged a 2016 population-based serological survey to predict age-specific measles seroprevalence and assessed the impact of changes in vaccination coverage on measles outbreak risk in each district. We found minor disruptions to routine administration of measles-rubella and pentavalent vaccines in 2020. This was in part due to Zambia's Child Health Week held in June of 2020 which helped to reach children missed during the first six months of the year. We estimated that the two-month delay in a measles-rubella vaccination campaign, originally planned for September of 2020 but conducted in November of 2020 as a result of the pandemic, had little impact on modeled district-specific measles outbreak risks. This study estimated minimal increases in the number of children missed by vaccination services in Zambia during 2020. However, the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission since our analysis concluded means efforts to maintain routine immunization services and minimize the risk of measles outbreaks will continue to be critical. The methodological framework developed in this analysis relied on routinely collected data to estimate disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic to national routine vaccination program performance and its impact on children missed at the subnational level can be deployed in other countries or for other vaccines.

Measles immunity gaps among children and adolescents with HIV in Zambia despite high measles vaccination and antiretroviral therapy coverage.

OBJECTIVE: The study objective was to identify measles and rubella immunity gaps among people with HIV (PWH) in Zambia despite high measles vaccine coverage and widespread access to antiretroviral therapy. DESIGN: Nationally representative cross-sectional serosurvey using biorepository specimens. METHODS: Blood specimens collected in the Zambia Population HIV Impact Assessment survey (ZAMPHIA) of 2016 were tested for measles and rubella immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies by enzyme immunoassay. Hierarchical generalized additive models were fit to characterize age-specific measles and rubella seroprevalence profiles by HIV infection status. Log-binomial regression was performed to identify factors associated with seronegativity. RESULTS: Of the 25 383 specimens, a subsample of 11 500 were selected and 9852 (85%) were successfully tested. Measles seroprevalence was lower among PWH compared with HIV-uninfected individuals until approximately 30 years of age. Among children younger than the age of 10 years, measles seroprevalence was 47.2% [95% confidence interval (CI): 32.7, 61.7] in PWH and 76.4% (95% CI: 74.9, 78.0) in HIV-uninfected children in same age category. In contrast, rubella seroprevalence was higher among PWH than HIV-uninfected individuals, particularly for children younger than 10 years (68.6% vs. 44.3%, P  < 0.001). Having a detectable viral load was associated with being measles seronegative (adjusted prevalence ratio 0.15, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.38). CONCLUSIONS: These results from a nationally representative serosurvey demonstrate persistence of measles immunity gaps among PWH younger than 30 years of age. There is need to implement the World Health Organization's recommendation to revaccinate children living with HIV against measles following immune reconstitution with antiretroviral therapy to protect these children and prevent measles outbreaks.

Challenges Addressing Inequalities in Measles Vaccine Coverage in Zambia through a Measles-Rubella Supplementary Immunization Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Measles-rubella supplementary immunization activities (MR-SIAs) are conducted to address inequalities in coverage and fill population immunity gaps when routine immunization services fail to reach all children with two doses of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV). We used data from a post-campaign coverage survey in Zambia to measure the proportion of measles zero-dose and under-immunized children who were reached by the 2020 MR-SIA and identified reasons associated with persistent inequalities following the MR-SIA. METHODS: Children between 9 and 59 months were enrolled in a nationally representative, cross-sectional, multistage stratified cluster survey in October 2021 to estimate vaccination coverage during the November 2020 MR-SIA. Vaccination status was determined by immunization card or through caregivers' recall. MR-SIA coverage and the proportion of measles zero-dose and under-immunized children reached by MR-SIA were estimated. Log-binomial models were used to assess risk factors for missing the MR-SIA dose. RESULTS: Overall, 4640 children were enrolled in the nationwide coverage survey. Only 68.6% (95% CI: 66.7%, 70.6%) received MCV during the MR-SIA. The MR-SIA provided MCV1 to 4.2% (95% CI: 0.9%, 4.6%) and MCV2 to 6.3% (95% CI: 5.6%, 7.1%) of enrolled children, but 58.1% (95% CI: 59.8%, 62.8%) of children receiving the MR-SIA dose had received at least two prior MCV doses. Furthermore, 27.8% of measles zero-dose children were vaccinated through the MR-SIA. The MR-SIA reduced the proportion of measles zero-dose children from 15.1% (95% CI: 13.6%, 16.7%) to 10.9% (95% CI: 9.7%, 12.3%). Zero-dose and under-immunized children were more likely to miss MR-SIA doses (prevalence ratio (PR): 2.81; 95% CI: 1.80, 4.41 and 2.22; 95% CI: 1.21 and 4.07) compared to fully vaccinated children. CONCLUSIONS: The MR-SIA reached more under-immunized children with MCV2 than measles zero-dose children with MCV1. However, improvement is needed to reach the remaining measles zero-dose children after SIA. One possible solution to address the inequalities in vaccination is to transition from nationwide non-selective SIAs to more targeted and selective strategies.

HIV test-and-treat policy improves clinical outcomes in Zambian adults from Southern Province: a multicenter retrospective cohort study.

Background: Globally, most countries have implemented a test-and-treat policy to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with HIV infection. However, the impact of this strategy has not been critically appraised in many settings, including Zambia. We evaluated the retention and clinical outcomes of adults enrolled in antiretroviral therapy (ART) and assessed the impact of the test-and-treat policy. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among 6,640 individuals who initiated ART between January 1, 2014 and July 31, 2016 [before test-and-treat cohort (BTT), n = 2,991] and between August 1, 2016 and October 1, 2020 [after test-and-treat cohort (ATT), n = 3,649] in 12 districts of the Southern province. To assess factors associated with retention, we used logistic regression (xtlogit model). Results: The median age [interquartile range (IQR)] was 34.8 years (28.0, 42.1), and 60.2% (n = 3,995) were women. The overall retention was 83.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 82.6, 84.4], and it was significantly higher among the ATT cohort, 90.6 vs. 74.8%, p < 0.001. The reasons for attrition were higher in the BTT compared to the ATT cohorts: stopped treatment (0.3 vs. 0.1%), transferred out (9.3 vs. 3.2%), lost to follow-up (13.5 vs. 5.9%), and death (1.4 vs. 0.2%). Retention in care was significantly associated with the ATT cohort, increasing age and baseline body mass index (BMI), rural residence, and WHO stage 2, while non-retention was associated with never being married, divorced, and being in WHO stage 3. Conclusion: The retention rate and attrition factors improved in the ATT compared to the BTT cohorts. Drivers of retention were test-and-treat policy, older age, high BMI, rural residence, marital status, and WHO stage 1. Therefore, there is need for interventions targeting young people, urban residents, non-married people, and those in the symptomatic WHO stages and with low BMI. Our findings highlight improved ART retention after the implementation of the test-and-treat policy.

Changes in mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in Zambia: Implications for the effectiveness of NPIs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted many facets of human behavior, including human mobility partially driven by the implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as stay at home orders, travel restrictions, and workplace and school closures. Given the importance of human mobility in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, there have been an increase in analyses of mobility data to understand the COVID-19 pandemic to date. However, despite an abundance of these analyses, few have focused on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Here, we use mobile phone calling data to provide a spatially refined analysis of sub-national human mobility patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic from March 2020-July 2021 in Zambia using transmission and mobility models. Overall, among highly trafficked intra-province routes, mobility decreased up to 52% during the time of the strictest NPIs (March-May 2020) compared to baseline. However, despite dips in mobility during the first wave of COVID-19 cases, mobility returned to baseline levels and did not drop again suggesting COVID-19 cases did not influence mobility in subsequent waves.

Impact of disruptions to routine vaccination programs, quantifying burden of measles, and mapping targeted supplementary immunization activities.

Measles is a highly transmissible disease that requires high levels of vaccination coverage for control and elimination. Areas that are unable to achieve and maintain high coverage levels are at risk for measles outbreaks resulting in increased morbidity and mortality. Public health emergencies, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, pose a threat to the functioning of health systems by disrupting immunization services which can derail measles vaccination efforts. Efforts to bridge coverage gaps in immunization include the rapid return to fully functioning services as well as deploying supplementary immunization activities (SIAs), which are additional vaccination campaigns intended to catch-up children who have missed routine services. However, SIAs, which to date tend to be national efforts, can be difficult to mobilize quickly, resource-intensive, and even more challenging to deploy during a public health crisis. By mapping expected burden of measles, more effective SIAs that are setting-specific and resource-efficient can be planned and mobilized. Using a spatial transmission model of measles dynamics, we projected and estimated the expected burden of national and local measles outbreaks in Zambia with the current COVID-19 pandemic as a framework to inform disruptions to routine vaccination. We characterize the impact of disruptions to routine immunization services on measles incidence, map expected case burden, and explore SIA strategies to mitigate measles outbreaks. We find that disruptions lasting six months or longer as well as having low MCV1 coverage prior to disruptions resulted in an observable increase of measles cases across provinces. Targeting provinces at higher risk of measles outbreaks for SIAs is an effective strategy to curb measles virus incidence following disruptions to routine immunization services.

Leveraging a national biorepository in Zambia to assess measles and rubella immunity gaps across age and space.

High-quality, representative serological surveys allow direct estimates of immunity profiles to inform vaccination strategies but can be costly and logistically challenging. Leveraging residual serum samples is one way to increase their feasibility. We subsampled 9854 residual sera from a 2016 national HIV survey in Zambia and tested these specimens for anti-measles and anti-rubella virus IgG antibodies using indirect enzyme immunoassays. We demonstrate innovative methods for sampling residual sera and analyzing seroprevalence data, as well as the value of seroprevalence estimates to understand and control measles and rubella. National measles and rubella seroprevalence for individuals younger than 50 years was 82.8% (95% CI 81.6, 83.9%) and 74.9% (95% CI 73.7, 76.0%), respectively. Despite a successful childhood vaccination program, measles immunity gaps persisted across age groups and districts, indicating the need for additional activities to complement routine immunization. Prior to vaccine introduction, we estimated a rubella burden of 96 congenital rubella syndrome cases per 100,000 live births. Residual samples from large-scale surveys can reduce the cost and challenges of conducting serosurveys, and multiple pathogens can be tested. Procedures to access quality specimens, ensure ethical approvals, and link sociodemographic data can improve the timeliness and value of results.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Zambia: a glimpse at the possible challenges ahead for COVID-19 vaccination rollout in sub-Saharan Africa.

With unprecedented speed, multiple vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are available 1 year after the COVID-19 pandemic was first identified. As we push to achieve global control through these new vaccines, old challenges present themselves, including cold-chain storage, the logistics of mass vaccination, and vaccine hesitancy. Understanding how much hesitancy toward COVID-19 vaccines might occur and what factors may be driving these concerns can improve the ability of public health workers and communicators to maximize vaccine uptake. We nested a survey within a measles-rubella mass vaccination campaign in Zambia in November 2020 and asked about sentiments and beliefs toward COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Among parents bringing their children to receive a measles-rubella vaccine, we found high acceptability of COVID-19 vaccination of their children, but substantial uncertainty and hesitancy about receiving the vaccine themselves. COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy was correlated with beliefs around COVID-19 severity and risk, as well as vaccine safety and effectiveness.