RESUMO
Climate change is increasingly putting milk production from cattle-based dairy systems in north sub-Saharan Africa (NSSA) under stress, threatening livelihoods and food security. Here we combine livestock heat stress frequency, dry matter feed production and water accessibility data to understand where environmental changes in NSSA's drylands are jeopardizing cattle milk production. We show that environmental conditions worsened for â¼17% of the study area. Increasing goat and camel populations by â¼14% (â¼7.7 million) and â¼10% (â¼1.2 million), respectively, while reducing the dairy cattle population by â¼24% (â¼5.9 million), could result in â¼0.14 Mt (+5.7%) higher milk production, lower water (-1,683.6 million m3, -15.3%) and feed resource (-404.3 Mt, -11.2%) demand-and lower dairy emissions by â¼1,224.6 MtCO2e (-7.9%). Shifting herd composition from cattle towards the inclusion of, or replacement with, goats and camels can secure milk production and support NSSA's dairy production resilience against climate change.