Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower-but still of potential use to decision-makers-for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

Leptospirosis in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: An Ecosystem Approach in the Animal-Human Interface.

BACKGROUND: Leptospirosis is an epidemic-prone neglected disease that affects humans and animals, mostly in vulnerable populations. The One Health approach is a recommended strategy to identify drivers of the disease and plan for its prevention and control. In that context, the aim of this study was to analyze the distribution of human cases of leptospirosis in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, and to explore possible drivers. Additionally, it sought to provide further evidence to support interventions and to identify hypotheses for new research at the human-animal-ecosystem interface. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The risk for human infection was described in relation to environmental, socioeconomic, and livestock variables. This ecological study used aggregated data by municipality (all 496). Data were extracted from secondary, publicly available sources. Thematic maps were constructed and univariate analysis performed for all variables. Negative binomial regression was used for multivariable statistical analysis of leptospirosis cases. An annual average of 428 human cases of leptospirosis was reported in the state from 2008 to 2012. The cumulative incidence in rural populations was eight times higher than in urban populations. Variables significantly associated with leptospirosis cases in the final model were: Parana/Paraiba ecoregion (RR: 2.25; CI95%: 2.03-2.49); Neossolo Litolítico soil (RR: 1.93; CI95%: 1.26-2.96); and, to a lesser extent, the production of tobacco (RR: 1.10; CI95%: 1.09-1.11) and rice (RR: 1.003; CI95%: 1.002-1.04). CONCLUSION: Urban cases were concentrated in the capital and rural cases in a specific ecoregion. The major drivers identified in this study were related to environmental and production processes that are permanent features of the state. This study contributes to the basic knowledge on leptospirosis distribution and drivers in the state and encourages a comprehensive approach to address the disease in the animal-human-ecosystem interface.

Where does human plague still persist in Latin America?

BACKGROUND: Plague is an epidemic-prone disease with a potential impact on public health, international trade, and tourism. It may emerge and re-emerge after decades of epidemiological silence. Today, in Latin America, human cases and foci are present in Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Peru. AIMS: The objective of this study is to identify where cases of human plague still persist in Latin America and map areas that may be at risk for emergence or re-emergence. This analysis will provide evidence-based information for countries to prioritize areas for intervention. METHODS: Evidence of the presence of plague was demonstrated using existing official information from WHO, PAHO, and Ministries of Health. A geo-referenced database was created to map the historical presence of plague by country between the first registered case in 1899 and 2012. Areas where plague still persists were mapped at the second level of the political/administrative divisions (counties). Selected demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental variables were described. RESULTS: Plague was found to be present for one or more years in 14 out of 25 countries in Latin America (1899-2012). Foci persisted in six countries, two of which have no report of current cases. There is evidence that human cases of plague still persist in 18 counties. Demographic and poverty patterns were observed in 11/18 counties. Four types of biomes are most commonly found. 12/18 have an average altitude higher than 1,300 meters above sea level. DISCUSSION: Even though human plague cases are very localized, the risk is present, and unexpected outbreaks could occur. Countries need to make the final push to eliminate plague as a public health problem for the Americas. A further disaggregated risk evaluation is recommended, including identification of foci and possible interactions among areas where plague could emerge or re-emerge. A closer geographical approach and environmental characterization are suggested.

Socioeconomic factors and vulnerability to outbreaks of leptospirosis in Nicaragua.

Leptospirosis is an epidemic-prone zoonotic disease that occurs worldwide, with more than 500,000 human cases reported annually. It is influenced by environmental and socioeconomic factors that affect the occurrence of outbreaks and the incidence of the disease. Critical areas and potential drivers for leptospirosis outbreaks have been identified in Nicaragua, where several conditions converge and create an appropriate scenario for the development of leptospirosis. The objectives of this study were to explore possible socioeconomic variables related to leptospirosis critical areas and to construct and validate a vulnerability index based on municipal socioeconomic indicators. Municipalities with lower socioeconomic status (greater unsatisfied basic needs for quality of the household and for sanitary services, and higher extreme poverty and illiteracy rates) were identified with the highest leptospirosis rates. The municipalities with highest local vulnerability index should be the priority for intervention. A distinction between risk given by environmental factors and vulnerability to risk given by socioeconomic conditions was shown as important, which also applies to the "causes of outbreaks" and "causes of cases".

Leptospirosis: a silent epidemic disease.

This special issue of International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health is dedicated to leptospirosis, an endemic zoonotic disease that is a cause of many acute undifferentiated fevers, especially in tropical countries. While it can be debated whether leptospirosis is an emerging disease, it is evident that it is becoming an emerging public health problem. It is recognized as a disease of epidemic potential that has a significant health impact in many parts of the world.

Leptospirosis outbreaks in Nicaragua: identifying critical areas and exploring drivers for evidence-based planning.

Leptospirosis is an epidemic-prone zoonotic disease that occurs worldwide. In Central America, leptospirosis outbreaks have been reported in almost all countries; Nicaragua in particular has faced several outbreaks. The objective of this study was to stratify the risk and identify "critical areas" for leptospirosis outbreaks in Nicaragua, and to perform an exploratory analysis of potential "drivers". This ecological study includes the entire country (153 municipalities). Cases from 2004 to 2010 were obtained from the country's health information system, demographic and socioeconomic variables from its Census, and environmental data from external sources. Criteria for risk stratification of leptospirosis were defined. Nicaragua reported 1,980 cases of leptospirosis during this period, with the highest percentage of cases (26.36%) in León, followed by Chinandega (15.35%). Among the 153 municipalities, 48 were considered critical areas, 85 were endemic and 20 silent. Using spatial and statistical analysis, the variable presenting the most evident pattern of association with critical areas defined by top quintile of incidence rate is the percentage of municipal surface occupied by the soil combination of cambisol (over pyroclastic and lava bedrock) and andosol (over a volcanic ashes foundation). Precipitation and percentage of rural population are also associated with critical areas. This methodology and findings could be used for Nicaragua's Leptospirosis Intersectoral Plan, and to identify possible risk areas in other countries with similar drivers.

Elimination of neglected diseases in latin america and the Caribbean: a mapping of selected diseases.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, around 195 million people live in poverty, a situation that increases the burden of some infectious diseases. Neglected diseases, in particular, are often restricted to poor, marginalized sections of the population. Tools exist to combat these diseases, making it imperative to work towards their elimination. In 2009, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) received a mandate to support the countries in the Region in eliminating neglected diseases and other poverty-related infections. The objective of this study is to analyze the presence of selected diseases using geo-processing techniques. Five diseases with information available at the first sub-national level (states) were mapped, showing the presence of the disease ("hotspots") and overlap of diseases ("major hotspots"). In the 45 countries/territories (approximately 570 states) of the Region, there is: lymphatic filariasis in four countries (29 states), onchocerciasis in six countries (25 states), schistosomiasis in four countries (39 states), trachoma in three countries (29 states), and human rabies transmitted by dogs in ten countries (20 states). Of the 108 states with one or more of the selected diseases, 36 states present the diseases in overlapping areas ("major hotspots"). Additional information about soil-transmitted helminths was included. The analysis suggests a majority of the selected diseases are not widespread and can be considered part of an unfinished agenda with elimination as a goal. Integrated plans and a comprehensive approach, ensuring access to existing diagnostic and treatment methods, and establishing a multi-sectoral agenda that addresses social determinants, including access to adequate water and sanitation, are required. Future studies can include additional diseases, socio-economic and environmental variables.

Equity and accessibility in health? Out-of-pocket expenditures on health care in middle income countries: evidence from Mexico.

This study analyzes the results of a cross-sectional survey which set out to determine the costs to patients of searching for and receiving health care in public and private institutions. The information analyzed was obtained from the study population of the Mexican National Health Survey. The dependent variable was the out-of-pocket users' costs and the independent variables were the insurance conditions, type of institution and income. The empirical findings suggest that there is a need for a more detailed analysis of user costs in middle income countries in general, where the health system is based on social security, public assistance and private institutions. This study shows that the out of pocket costs faced by users are inequitable and fall disproportionately upon socially and economically marginalized populations.

Equity and accessibility in health? Out-of-pocket expenditures on health care in middle income countries: evidence from Mexico / ¿Equidad y accesibilidad en salud? Gasto personal de los usuarios en países de ingresos medios: evidencias desde México

This study analyzes the results of a cross-sectional survey which set out to determine the costs to patients of searching for and receiving health care in public and private institutions. The information analyzed was obtained from the study population of the Mexican National Health Survey. The dependent variable was the out-of-pocket users' costs and the independent variables were the insurance conditions, type of institution and income. The empirical findings suggest that there is a need for a more detailed analysis of user costs in middle income countries in general, where the health system is based on social security, public assistance and private institutions. This study shows that the out of pocket costs faced by users are inequitable and fall disproportionately upon socially and economically marginalized populations.

Se presentan los resultados de un estudio transversal, cuyo principal objetivo fue determinar los costos personales de los usuarios en el proceso de búsqueda, obtención y seguimiento de la atención a la salud en instituciones públicas y privadas del sistema mexicano de salud. La información fue obtenida de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud de México. La variable dependiente se refirió a los costos personales de los usuarios y como variables independientes se definieron la condición de aseguramiento, tipo de institución e ingreso económico. Los resultados sugieren que en países de ingresos medios los costos a los usuarios de servicios de salud requieren de un análisis muy detallado, ya que el sistema de salud esta fragmentado en asistencia pública, seguridad social y asistencia privada. Este estudio muestra evidencias de cómo los costos a los usuarios afectan de manera inequitativa a familias de menor ingreso y de mayor marginación social.

Atención médica ambulatoria en México: el costo para los usuarios / Ambulatory medical care in Mexico: the cost for users

Objetivo. Analizar los resultados de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud II (ENSA-II), en lo relativo a los costos del proceso de búsqueda y obtención de la atención médica ambulatoria en diferentes instituciones del sector público y privado. Material y métodos. La información se obtuvo a partir de los indicadores de costos de la atención médica que notificó la población de estudio de la ENSA-II. Los costos para el bolsillo del consumidor fueron la variable dependientes, y las independientes, la condición de aseguramiento y el ingreso económico. Las significancia de los niveles de variación se identificó aplicando la prueba de Duncan. Resultados. Los costos en todo el país, en dólares estadunidenses, fueron: transporte, $ 2.20; consulta general, $7,90; medicamentos, $ 9.60, y estudios de diagnóstico, $13.6. El costo promedio total de la atención ambulatoria fue de $22.70. Los hallazgos empíricos permiten sugerir una nueva propuesta de análisis de los costos en salud, tanto directos como indirectos, en que incurren los consumidores de servicios de salud, dichos costos representan una carga importante en relación con el ingreso familiar, situación que se agudiza en el caso de la población no asegurada. Conclusiones. La incorporación de la perspectiva económica en el análisis de los problemas de los sistemas de salud, no debe limitarse a los costos de producción de servicios en que incurren los proveedores, sobre todo si lo que se busca es resolver los problemas de equidad y accesibilidad que actualmente caracterizan a la oferta de servicios médicos en México