Seafood prices reveal impacts of a major ecological disturbance.

Coastal hypoxia (dissolved oxygen ≤ 2 mg/L) is a growing problem worldwide that threatens marine ecosystem services, but little is known about economic effects on fisheries. Here, we provide evidence that hypoxia causes economic impacts on a major fishery. Ecological studies of hypoxia and marine fauna suggest multiple mechanisms through which hypoxia can skew a population's size distribution toward smaller individuals. These mechanisms produce sharp predictions about changes in seafood markets. Hypoxia is hypothesized to decrease the quantity of large shrimp relative to small shrimp and increase the price of large shrimp relative to small shrimp. We test these hypotheses using time series of size-based prices. Naive quantity-based models using treatment/control comparisons in hypoxic and nonhypoxic areas produce null results, but we find strong evidence of the hypothesized effects in the relative prices: Hypoxia increases the relative price of large shrimp compared with small shrimp. The effects of fuel prices provide supporting evidence. Empirical models of fishing effort and bioeconomic simulations explain why quantifying effects of hypoxia on fisheries using quantity data has been inconclusive. Specifically, spatial-dynamic feedbacks across the natural system (the fish stock) and human system (the mobile fishing fleet) confound "treated" and "control" areas. Consequently, analyses of price data, which rely on a market counterfactual, are able to reveal effects of the ecological disturbance that are obscured in quantity data. Our results are an important step toward quantifying the economic value of reduced upstream nutrient loading in the Mississippi Basin and are broadly applicable to other coupled human-natural systems.

Insights into the Spin-State Transitions in [Fe(tpy)2]2+: Importance of the Terpyridine Rocking Motion.

Iron(II) polypyridine complexes have the potential for numerous applications on a global scale, such as sensitizers, sensors, and molecular memory. The excited-state properties of these systems, particularly the intersystem crossing (ISC) rates, are sensitive to the choice of ligands and can be significantly altered depending on the coordination environment. We employ density functional theory and Smolyak's sparse grid interpolation algorithm to construct potential energy surfaces (PESs) for the photophysically relevant states ((1)A, (3,5)MC, and (1,3)MLCT) of the [Fe(tpy)2](2+) (tpy = 2,2':6',2"-terpyridine) complex, with the goal of obtaining a deeper understanding of the ground- and excited-state electronic structure of this system. The three dimensions that define our adiabatic PESs consist of equatorial and axial metal-ligand bond length distortions and a terpyridine ligand "rocking angle", which has not previously been investigated. The intersection crossing seams and minimum energy crossing points (MECPs) between surfaces are also determined. Overall, we find that the PESs of all electronic excited states investigated are characterized by low-energy valleys along the tpy rocking-angle coordinate. This results in the presence of large low-energy areas around the MECPs on the intersection seams of different electronic states and indicates that inclusion of this third coordinate is crucial for an adequate description of the PESs and surface crossing seams of the [Fe(tpy)2](2+) complex. Finally, we suggest that tuning the energetics of the tpy ligand rocking motion could provide a way to control the ISC process in this complex.

Modeling a single season of Aedes albopictus populations based on host-seeking data in response to temperature and precipitation in eastern Tennessee.

In the southern Appalachia of the U.S., Aedes mosquitoes maintain and transmit La Crosse virus (LACV) which causes La Crosse encephalitis, a neuroinvasive disease of children. In response to mosquito outbreaks, communities organize prevention, detection, and response measures that are dependent on local characteristics of the mosquito population and the community. Knowing Ae. albopictus is an accessory vector of LACV and a nuisance biter, our objective was to build a system of ordinary differential equations to model dynamics in a single season using our data and readily available environmental variables that can reflect the abundance and activity of Ae. albopictus. Consequently, we built an Ae. albopictus single-season mathematical model for eastern Tennessee to fit our 2013 mosquito collection data in order to understand the population fluctuations. We included precipitation, temperature, and rate of change of temperature in the model because Aedes mosquitoes oviposit desiccant tolerant eggs with peak activity occurring over 26° C and those data are readily available and used frequently as forecast predictors. Our ordinary differential equation model accurately fits the data and facilitates predictions and better understanding of Ae. albopictus populations in southern Appalachia.

Fleet behavior is responsive to a large-scale environmental disturbance: Hypoxia effects on the spatial dynamics of the northern Gulf of Mexico shrimp fishery.

The northwestern Gulf of Mexico shelf experiences one of the largest seasonal hypoxic zones in the western hemisphere. Hypoxia (dissolved oxygen, DO ≤ 2.0 mg·L-1) is most severe from May to August during the height of the Gulf shrimp fishery, but its effects on the fishery are not well known. Prior studies indicate that hypoxia alters the spatial dynamics of shrimp and other species through habitat loss and aggregation in nearby oxygenated refuge habitats. We hypothesized that hypoxia-induced changes in the distribution of shrimp also alter the spatial dynamics of the Gulf shrimp fleet. We integrated data on the geographic distribution of shrimp tows and bottom DO to evaluate the effects of hypoxia on spatial patterns in shrimping effort. Our analyses indicate that shrimping effort declines in low DO waters on both the Texas and Louisiana shelf, but that considerable effort still occurs in low DO waters off Louisiana, likely because riverine nutrients fuel both benthic production and low bottom DO in the same general regions. The response of the shrimp fleet to hypoxia on the Louisiana shelf was complex with shifts in effort inshore, offshore, westward, and eastward of the hypoxic zone, as well as to an oxygenated area between two hypoxia regimes associated with the Mississippi and the Atchafalaya River outflows. In contrast, effort on the Texas shelf mostly shifted offshore in response to low DO but also shifted inshore in some years. Spatial patterns in total shrimping effort were driven primarily by the number of shrimp tows, consistent with aggregation of the fleet outside of hypoxic waters, though tow duration also declined in low DO waters. Overall, our results demonstrate that hypoxia alters the spatial dynamics of the Gulf shrimp fishery with potential consequences for harvest interactions and the economic condition of the fishery.

Reaction Path Following with Sparse Interpolation.

Computing the potential energy of an N-atom molecule is an expensive optimization process of 3N - 6 molecular coordinates, so following reaction pathways as a function of all 3N - 6 coordinates is unfeasible for large molecules. In this paper, we present a method that isolates d < 3N - 6 molecular coordinates and continuously follows reaction paths on d-dimensional potential energy surfaces approximated by a Smolyak's sparse grid interpolation algorithm.1 Compared to dense grids, sparse grids efficiently improve the ratio of invested storage and computing time to approximation accuracy and thus allow one to increase the number of coordinates d in molecular reaction path following simulations. Furthermore, evaluation of the interpolant is much less expensive than the evaluation of the actual energy function, so our technique offers a computationally efficient way to simulate reaction paths on ground and excited state potential energy surfaces. To demonstrate the capabilities of our method, we present simulation results for the isomerization of 2-butene with two, three, and six degrees of freedom.

Chemical, microbial and physical evaluation of commercial bottled waters in greater Houston area of Texas.

Due to the increased demand and consumption of bottled water in the United States, there has been a growing concern about the quality of this product. Retail outlets sell local as well as imported bottled water to consumers. Three bottles for each of 35 different brands of bottled water were randomly collected from local grocery stores in the greater Houston area. Out of the 35 different brands, 16 were designated as spring water, 11 were purified and/or fortified tap water, 5 were carbonated water and 3 were distilled water. Chemical, microbial and physical properties of all samples were evaluated including pH, conductivity, bacteria counts, anion concentration, trace metal concentration, heavy metal and volatile organics concentration were determined in all samples. Inductively coupled plasma/mass spectrometry (ICPMS) was used for elemental analysis, gas chromatography with electron capture detector (GCECD) as well as gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GCMS) were used for analysis of volatile organics, ion chromatography (IC) and selective ion electrodes were used for the analysis of anions. Bacterial identification was performed using the Biolog software (Biolog, Inc., Hayward, Ca, USA). The results obtained were compared with guidelines of drinking water recommended by the International Bottled Water Association (IBWA), United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) drinking water standard. The majority of the analyzed chemicals were below their respective drinking water standards for maximum admissible concentrations (MAC). Volatile organic chemicals were found to be below detection limits. Four of the 35 brands of the bottled water samples analyzed were found to be contaminated with bacteria.