Assessing healthcare quality using routine data: evaluating the performance of the national tuberculosis programme in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of healthcare facilities by means of indicators based on guidelines for clinical care of TB, which is likely a good measure of overall facility quality. METHODS: We assessed quality of care in all public health facilities in South Africa using graphical, correlation and locally weighted kernel regression analysis of routine TB test data. RESULTS: Facility performance falls short of national standards of care. Only 74% of patients with TB provided a second specimen for testing, 18% received follow-up testing and 14% received drug resistance testing. Only resistance testing rates improved over time, tripling between 2004 and 2011. National awareness campaigns and changes in clinical guidelines had only a transient impact on testing rates. The poorest performing facilities remained at the bottom of the rankings over the period of study. CONCLUSION: The optimal policy strategy requires both broad-based policies and targeted resources to poor performers. This approach to assessing facility quality of care can be adapted to other contexts and also provides a low-cost method for evaluating the effectiveness of proposed interventions. Devising targeted policies based on routine data is a cost-effective way to improve the quality of public health care provided.

The Impact of Anti-Retroviral Therapy on Tuberculosis Detection at the National Level in South Africa.

Human immunodeficiency virus/tuberculosis (HIV/TB) coinfection is particularly prevalent in South Africa, where TB has been the leading cause of death for more than a decade. The 2004-2008 national rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provides a unique opportunity to examine the population-level impact of ART on the TB epidemic. We performed longitudinal regression analysis to follow the evolution of TB outcomes before and after the introduction of ART using a large data set from the National Health Laboratory Service. This is the first study to produce estimates of the impact of the ART rollout by exploiting staggered timing and geographic variation in the rollout. After ART became available in a health facility, 3.7% (P < 0.0001) more patients were tested for TB and 3.2% (P < 0.0001) more received repeat testing; however, there was a steep rise in testing before the introduction of ART. Although the number of TB-positive patients increased by 4.3% (P = 0.0002) in the first year post-ART, the TB rate among tested patients fell by 2 percentage points (8%, P = 0.001) after 2 years. Sputum smear testing declined relative to more technologically advanced diagnostics post-ART. Antiretroviral therapy availability increased the attention to TB screening and drew new patients into the health-care system. Small increases in the numbers of repeat patients are indicative of retention in care. The decline in TB rates post-ART suggests that the reduction in TB risk due to improved immune functioning and health-care contact likely outweighed the increased TB risk because of the longer lifespan of ART initiators.

Feasibility of using postal and web-based surveys to estimate the prevalence of tuberculosis among health care workers in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Health Care Workers (HCWs) are among the highest risk groups for contracting tuberculosis (TB), which is ranked the third most common occupational health disease in South Africa. Little is known about the true extent of the burden of TB among South African HCWs and current surveillance approaches are inadequate. The study aimed to determine the feasibility of using postal and web-based surveys accessed through registries of registered professionals to estimate the prevalence of TB among HCWs in South Africa. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cross sectional survey on a sample of professional nurses and doctors (general practitioners) registered on the Medpages database platform; a subscription based registry for practising health care professionals. The survey included professionals who were actively involved in the clinical management of patients, either in public or private health care facilities. The paper based survey, including pre-paid return envelopes, was distributed via the post office and web-based surveys were distributed via e-mail through a hyperlink. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the data and the Chi-square test to determine associations between categorical variables. Active TB was defined as any history of TB. RESULTS: Out of a total of 3,400 health care professionals contacted, 596 (18%) responses were received: 401 (67%) web-based and 195 (33%) postal. A significantly higher percentage of complete forms were from postal compared to web-based (97% [189/195] versus 87% [348/401], p<0.001). Younger (<60 years) professionals were more likely to use the web-based compared to postal (87% [236/270] versus 71% [134/189], p<0.001). Overall, the prevalence of active TB infection was 8.7%, (95%CI: 6.3%-11.7%) and there was no difference observed between doctors and nurses (10.8% [18/167] versus 7.5% [22/292], p = 0.236). CONCLUSION: This novel approach demonstrated the feasibility of using an existing registry of professionals to conduct surveys to estimate the prevalence of TB. Our findings showed a high TB prevalence; however the estimate might have been biased by the low response rate. Further research to optimise our approach could lead to a viable option in improving surveillance among health care professionals.

Prevalence of drug-resistant tuberculosis and imputed burden in South Africa: a national and sub-national cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Globally, per-capita, South Africa reports a disproportionately high number of cases of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis. We sought to estimate the prevalence of resistance to tuberculosis drugs in newly diagnosed and retreated patients with tuberculosis provincially and nationally, and compared these with the 2001-02 estimates. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was done between June 15, 2012-June 14, 2014, using population proportionate randomised cluster sampling in the nine provinces in South Africa. 343 clusters were included, ranging between 31 and 48 per province. A patient was eligible for inclusion in the survey if he or she presented as a presumptive case during the intake period at a drug resistance survey enrolling facility. Consenting participants (≥18 years old) completed a questionnaire and had a sputum sample tested for resistance to first-line and second-line drugs. Analysis was by logistic regression with robust SEs, inverse probability weighted against routine data, and estimates were derived using a random effects model. FINDINGS: 101 422 participants were tested in 2012-14. Nationally, the prevalence of MDR tuberculosis was 2·1% (95% CI 1·5-2·7) among new tuberculosis cases and 4·6% (3·2-6·0) among retreatment cases. The provincial point prevalence of MDR tuberculosis ranged between 1·6% (95% CI 0·9-2·9) and 5·1% (3·7-7·0). Overall, the prevalence of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (4·6%, 95% CI 3·5-5·7) was higher than the prevalence of MDR tuberculosis (2·8%, 2·0-3·6; p=0·01). Comparing the current survey with the previous (2001-02) survey, the overall MDR tuberculosis prevalence was 2·8% versus 2·9% and prevalance of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis was 3·4% versus 1·8%, respectively. The prevalence of isoniazid mono-resistant tuberculosis was above 5% in all provinces. The prevalence of ethionamide and pyrazinamide resistance among MDR tuberculosis cases was 44·7% (95% CI 25·9-63·6) and 59·1% (49·0-69·1), respectively. The prevalence of XDR tuberculosis was 4·9% (95% CI 1·0-8·8). Nationally, the estimated numbers of cases of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis, MDR tuberculosis, and isoniazid mono-resistant tuberculosis for 2014 were 13 551, 8249, and 17 970, respectively. INTERPRETATION: The overall prevalence of MDR tuberculosis in South Africa in 2012-14 was similar to that in 2001-02; however, prevalence of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis almost doubled among new cases. Furthermore, the high prevalence of isoniazid mono-resistant tuberculosis, not routinely screened for, and resistance to second-line drugs has implications for empirical management. FUNDING: President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under the terms of 1U19GH000571.

The Epidemiology of Meningitis among Adults in a South African Province with a High HIV Prevalence, 2009-2012.

INTRODUCTION: Meningitis is a major cause of mortality in southern Africa. We aimed to describe the aetiologies and frequencies of laboratory-confirmed fungal and bacterial meningitis among adults in a South African province with an 11% HIV prevalence, over 4 years. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, observational study of secondary laboratory data, extracted on all cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens submitted to public-sector laboratories in Gauteng province from 2009 through 2012. We calculated cause-specific incidence rates in the general and HIV-infected populations and used Poisson regression to determine if trends were significant. RESULTS: We identified 11,891 (10.7%) incident cases of meningitis from 110,885 CSF specimens. Cryptococcal meningitis, tuberculous meningitis and pneumococcal meningitis accounted for 62.3% (n = 7,406), 24.6% (n = 2,928) and 10.1% (n = 1,197) of cases over the four-year period. The overall incidence (cases per 100,000 persons) of cryptococcal meningitis declined by 23% from 24.4 in 2009 to 18.7 in 2012 (p <0.001) and decreased by 19% among HIV-infected persons from 178.2 to 144.7 (p <0.001). Tuberculous meningitis decreased by 40% from 11.3 in 2009 to 6.8 in 2012 (p <0.001) and decreased by 36% among HIV-infected persons from 54.4 to 34.9 (p <0.001). Pneumococcal meningitis decreased by 41% from 4.2 in 2009 to 2.5 in 2012 (p <0.001) and decreased by 38% among HIV-infected persons from 28.0 to 17.5 (p <0.001). Among cases of other bacterial meningitis (248/11,891, 2.1%), Neisseria meningitidis (n = 93), Escherichia coli (n = 72) and Haemophilus influenzae (n = 20) were the most common organisms identified. CONCLUSIONS: In this high HIV-prevalence province, cryptococcal meningitis was the leading cause of laboratory-confirmed meningitis among adults. Over a 4-year period, there was a significant decrease in incidence of cryptococcal, tuberculous and pneumococcal meningitis. This coincided with expansion of the national antiretroviral treatment programme, enhanced tuberculosis control programme and routine childhood immunisation with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines.

Nationwide and regional incidence of microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in South Africa, 2004-12: a time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: South Africa has the highest incidence of tuberculosis in the world, largely resulting from a high population prevalence of HIV infection. We investigated the incidence of microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis, and new cases of pulmonary tuberculosis registered for treatment, nationally and provincially in South Africa from 2004 to 2012, during which time there were changes in antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage among individuals with HIV infection. METHODS: We identified cases of microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis from 2004 to 2012 from the National Health Laboratory Service Corporate Data Warehouse. New cases registered for treatment were identified from National Department of Health electronic registries. A time series analysis, using autoregressive models, was undertaken on incidence of microbiologically confirmed pulmonary disease nationally and provincially; this trend was also examined relative to ART coverage of adults with HIV infection. FINDINGS: During the 9-year period, 3 523 371 cases of microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis were recorded nationally. Annual incidence (per 100 000 population) increased from 650 (95% CI 648-652) in 2004 to 848 (845-850) in 2008, declining to 774 (771-776) by 2012 (9% decrease from 2008 to 2012). Incidence varied by age-group, sex, and province. There was an inverse association between incidence of microbiologically confirmed disease and ART coverage among HIV-infected individuals nationally and provincially. Trends in incidence of tuberculosis cases registered for treatment mirrored those of microbiologically confirmed cases nationally and provincially; however, incidence of microbiologically confirmed cases was consistently higher than cases registered for treatment nationally and in seven of nine provinces. INTERPRETATION: Since its peak in 2008, the incidence of microbiologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in South Africa had declined by 2012; this decline is associated with an increase in ART coverage. Future integration of registries for microbiologically confirmed cases and new cases registered for treatment would improve the assessment of the burden of pulmonary tuberculosis in South Africa. FUNDING: National Institute for Communicable Diseases: Division of the National Health Laboratory Service, South Africa.

Excess Mortality Associated with Influenza among Tuberculosis Deaths in South Africa, 1999-2009.

BACKGROUND: Published data on the interaction between influenza and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) are limited. We aimed to estimate the influenza-associated mortality among individuals with PTB in South Africa from 1999-2009. METHODS: We modelled the excess influenza-associated mortality by applying Poisson regression models to monthly PTB and non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths, using laboratory-confirmed influenza as a covariate. RESULTS: PTB deaths increased each winter, coinciding with influenza virus circulation. Among individuals of any age, mean annual influenza-associated PTB mortality rate was 164/100,000 person-years (n = 439). The rate of non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths was 27/100,000 (n = 1125) for HIV-infected and 5/100,000 (n = 2367) for HIV-uninfected individuals of all ages. Among individuals aged <65 years, influenza-associated PTB mortality risk was elevated compared to influenza-associated non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths in HIV-infected (relative risk (RR): 5.2; 95% CI: 4.6-5.9) and HIV-uninfected individuals (RR: 61.0; CI: 41.4-91.0). Among individuals aged ≥65 years, influenza-associated PTB mortality risk was elevated compared to influenza-associated non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths in HIV-uninfected individuals (RR: 13.0; 95% CI: 12.0-14.0). CONCLUSION: We observed an increased risk of influenza-associated mortality in persons with PTB compared to non-tuberculosis respiratory deaths. If confirmed in other settings, our findings may support recommendations for active inclusion of patients with TB for influenza vaccination and empiric influenza anti-viral treatment of patients with TB during influenza epidemics.

Long-term consistent use of a vaginal microbicide gel among HIV-1 sero-discordant couples in a phase III clinical trial (MDP 301) in rural south-west Uganda.

BACKGROUND: A safe and effective vaginal microbicide could substantially reduce HIV acquisition for women. Consistent gel use is, however, of great importance to ensure continued protection against HIV infection, even with a safe and effective microbicide. We assessed the long-term correlates of consistent gel use in the MDP 301 clinical trial among HIV-negative women in sero-discordant couples in south-west Uganda. METHODS: HIV-negative women living with an HIV-infected partner were enrolled between 2005 and 2008, in a three-arm phase III microbicide trial and randomized to 2% PRO2000, 0.5% PRO2000 or placebo gel arms. Follow-up visits continued up to September 2009. The 2% arm was stopped early due to futility and the 229 women enrolled in this arm were excluded from this analysis. Data were analyzed on 544 women on the 0.5% and placebo arms who completed at least 52 weeks of follow-up, sero-converted or became pregnant before 52 weeks. Consistent gel use was defined as satisfying all of the following three conditions: (i) reported gel use at the last sex act for at least 92% of the 26 scheduled visits or at least 92% of the visits attended if fewer than 26; (ii) at least one used applicator returned for each visit for which gel use was reported at the last sex act; (iii) attended at least 13 visits (unless the woman sero-converted or became pregnant during follow-up). Logistic regression models were fitted to investigate factors associated with consistent gel use. RESULTS: Of the 544 women, 473 (86.9%) were followed for at least 52 weeks, 29 (5.3%) sero-converted and 42 (7.7%) became pregnant before their week 52 visit. Consistent gel use was reported by 67.8%. Women aged 25 to 34 years and those aged 35 years or older were both more than twice as likely to have reported consistently using gel compared to women aged 17 to 24 years. Living in a household with three or more rooms used for sleeping compared to one room was associated with a twofold increase in consistent gel use. CONCLUSION: In rural Uganda younger women and women in houses with less space are likely to require additional support to achieve consistent microbicide gel use. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Protocol Number ISRCTN64716212.