Predicting COVID-19 Incidence Using Wastewater Surveillance Data, Denmark, October 2021-June 2022.

Analysis of wastewater is used in many settings for surveillance of SARS-CoV-2, but it remains unclear how well wastewater testing results reflect incidence. Denmark has had an extensive wastewater analysis system that conducts 3 weekly tests in ≈200 sites and has 85% population coverage; the country also offers free SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests to all residents. Using time series analysis for modeling, we found that wastewater data, combined with information on circulating variants and the number of human tests performed, closely fitted the incidence curve of persons testing positive. The results were consistent at a regional level and among a subpopulation of frequently tested healthcare personnel. We used wastewater analysis data to estimate incidence after testing was reduced to a minimum after March 2022. These results imply that data from a large-scale wastewater surveillance system can serve as a good proxy for COVID-19 incidence and for epidemic control.

Early detection of local SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks by wastewater surveillance: a feasibility study.

Wastewater surveillance and quantitative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RNA are increasingly used to monitor the spread of COVID-19 in the community. We studied the feasibility of applying the surveillance data for early detection of local outbreaks. A Monte Carlo simulation model was constructed, applying data on reported variation in RNA gene copy concentration in faeces and faecal masses shed. It showed that, even with a constant number of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedders, the variation in concentrations found in wastewater samples will be large, and that it will be challenging to translate viral concentrations into incidence estimates, especially when the number of shedders is low. Potential signals for early detection of hypothetical outbreaks were analysed for their performance in terms of sensitivity and specificity of the signals. The results suggest that a sudden increase in incidence is not easily identified on the basis of wastewater surveillance data, especially in small sampling areas and in low-incidence situations. However, with a high number of shedders and when combining data from multiple consecutive tests, the performance of wastewater sampling is expected to improve considerably. The developed modelling approach can increase our understanding of the results from wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.

Assessing the effect on the public health risk of current and alternative border control of Salmonella Typhimurium and Enteritidis in imported frozen poultry meat in Jordan.

The JFDA applies border control for Salmonella Typhimurium and Salmonella Enteritidis in frozen poultry products. A QMRA model was developed to evaluate the effectiveness of this system in controlling the risk for consumers. The model consists of three modules; consumer phase, risk estimation, and risk reduction. The model inputs were the occurrence of Salmonella in different types of imported poultry products, the LOD of the Rapid'Salmonella, the number of tested samples of each batch, and the criteria for rejection. The model outputs were public health impact as the Minimum Relative Residual Risk (MRRR) given the batches' refusal and the percentage of Batches that are Not-compliant with the Microbiological Criteria (BNMC) of rejection. To estimate the overall MRRR of the border control, the estimated country and product-specific MRRR were summarized and weighted by the total imports of each product from each country. The current border control based on one sample per batch gives an overall MRRR value of 27%. The alternative scenarios based on three and five samples per batch are 12% and 8%, respectively. Overall, the higher the prevalence and/or concentration of Salmonella in imported products, the more the likelihood that batches will be rejected. For products with up-to-date data of occurrence, the estimated BNMC was similar to the observed proportion of rejected batches. The lack of data on the Salmonella concentrations in poultry products from different countries is the major source of the uncertainties in the model. It reduces our opportunities to obtain valid estimates of the absolute risk.

The health impact of substituting unprocessed red meat by pulses in the Danish diet.

BACKGROUND: Diets consisting of high amounts of animal-based protein have been associated with adverse public health effects and are often deemed environmentally unsustainable. Therefore, replacing red meat by pulses has been proposed to reduce the adverse impact on human health and environment. However, unprocessed red meat is an important source of nutrients, such as vitamin B12, iron, zinc and selenium, and the substitution may have negative impact on nutrient adequacy. METHOD: Using a risk-benefit assessment (RBA) approach, we, therefore, estimated the health impact of substituting unprocessed red meat by pulses on the burden of non-communicable diseases in Denmark, using Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY). Furthermore, we assessed the impact of the substitution on nutrient adequacy. RESULTS: We found that 187 (95% UI: 209; 168) healthy years of life could be gained per 100,000 individuals per year by substituting 100% of unprocessed red meat by pulses in the Danish diet. We found a decrease in the intake of vitamin B12, zinc and selenium due to the substitution. An additional 10% of the Danish population will become at risk of vitamin B12 and selenium inadequacy, and an additional 20% will be at risk of zinc inadequacy due to the substitution. For iron, a small decrease in the proportion at risk of inadequacy was found. CONCLUSION: Substitution of unprocessed red meat by pulses was estimated to provide a beneficial health impact on the burden of non-communicable disease, expressed in DALY. Additionally, it was found that the complete substitution will lead to a higher risk of nutrient inadequacies.

Optimising healthy and safe fish intake recommendations: a trade-off between personal preference and cost.

Individuals may perceive personalised dietary advice as more relevant and motivational than national guidelines. Personal preference and food cost are factors that can affect consumer decisions. The objective of this study was to present a method for modelling and analysing the trade-off between deviation from preference and food cost for optimised personalised dietary recommendations. Quadratic programming was applied to minimise deviation from fish preference and cost simultaneously with different weights on the cost for 3016 Danish adults (whose dietary intake and body weight were recorded in a national dietary survey). Model constraints included recommendations for EPA, DHA and vitamin D and tolerable levels for methyl mercury, dioxins and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls. When only minimising deviation from preference, 50 % of the study population should be recommended to increase fish intake, 48 % should be suggested to maintain current consumption and 2 % should be suggested to decrease fish consumption. When only minimising cost, the vast majority (99 %) should be recommended to only consume herring, which is the least-expensive fish species. By minimising deviation from preference and cost simultaneously with different weights on the cost, personalised optimal trade-off curves between deviation from fish intake preference and fish cost could be generated for each individual in our study population, except for twenty-two individuals (0·7 %) whose contaminant background exposure was too high. In the future, the method of this paper could be applied in the personal communication of healthy and safe food recommendations that fit the preferences of individual consumers.

Use of Mathematical Optimization Models to Derive Healthy and Safe Fish Intake.

Background: Recommended fish intake differs substantially from observed fish intake. In Denmark, ∼15% of the population consumes the state-recommended fish intake. How much fish individuals eat varies greatly, and this variation cannot be captured by considering the fish intake of the average population. Objective: We developed a method intended to provide realistic and achievable personalized dietary recommendations based on an individual's body weight and current fish intake. The objective of the study was to propose specific fish intake levels for individuals that meet the recommendations for eicosapentaenoic acid, docosahexaenoic acid, and vitamin D without violating the permitted intake recommendations for methyl mercury, dioxins, and polychlorinated biphenyls. Methods: Two mathematical optimization models were developed that apply quadratic programming to model personalized recommended fish intake, fulfilling criteria on nutrients and contaminants, while simultaneously deviating as little as possible from observed individual intake. A recommended intake for 8 fish species was generated for each individual in a group of 3016 Danes (1552 women and 1464 men, aged 18-75 y), whose fish intakes and body weights were known from a national dietary survey. Results: Individual, personal dietary recommendations were successfully modeled. Modeled fish intake levels were compared to observed fish intakes. For women, the average proposed increase in fish intake was 14 g/wk for lean fish and 63 g/wk for fatty fish; and for men these numbers were 12 and 55 g/wk, respectively. Conclusions: Using fish intake as an example, we show how quadratic programming models may be used to advise individual consumers how to optimize their diet, taking both benefits and risks into account. This approach has the potential to increase compliance with dietary guidelines by targeting the individual consumers and minimizing the need for large and ultimately unrealistic behavior changes.

Personalised fish intake recommendations: the effect of background exposure on optimisation.

National dietary guidelines are directed at the general population. However, these guidelines may be perceived as unrealistic by a substantial part of the population, as they differ considerably from individual consumption patterns and preferences. Personalised dietary recommendations will probably improve adherence, and it has been shown that these recommendations can be derived by mathematical optimisation methods. However, to better account for risks and benefits of specific foods, the background exposure to nutrients and contaminants needs to be considered as well. This background exposure may come from other foods and supplements, and also from environmental sources like the air and the sun. The objective of this study was therefore to analyse the effect of including individual variation in background exposure when modelling personalised dietary recommendations for fish. We used a quadratic programming model to generate recommended fish intake accounting for personal preference by deviating as little as possible from observed individual intake. Model constraints ensure that the modelled intake meets recommendations for EPA, DHA and vitamin D without violating tolerable exposure to methyl mercury, dioxins and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls. Several background exposures were analysed for 3016 Danish adults, whose food intakes and body weights were reported in a national dietary survey. We found that the lower nutrient constraints were critical for the largest part of the study population, and that a total of 55% should be advised to increase their fish intake. The modelled fish intake recommendations were particularly sensitive to the vitamin D background exposure.

A Stochastic Model to Assess the Effect of Meat Inspection Practices on the Contamination of the Pig Carcasses.

The objective of meat inspection is to promote animal and public health by preventing, detecting, and controlling hazards originating from animals. With the improvements of sanitary level in pig herds, the hazards profile has shifted and the inspection procedures no longer target major foodborne pathogens (i.e., not risk based). Additionally, carcass manipulations performed when searching for macroscopic lesions can lead to cross-contamination. We therefore developed a stochastic model to quantitatively describe cross-contamination when consecutive carcasses are submitted to classic inspection procedures. The microbial hazard used to illustrate the model was Salmonella, the data set was obtained from Brazilian slaughterhouses, and some simplifying assumptions were made. The model predicted that due to cross-contamination during inspection, the prevalence of contaminated carcass surfaces increased from 1.2% to 95.7%, whereas the mean contamination on contaminated surfaces decreased from 1 logCFU/cm² to -0.87 logCFU/cm², and the standard deviations decreased from 0.65 to 0.19. These results are explained by the fact that, due to carcass manipulations with hands, knives, and hooks, including the cutting of contaminated lymph nodes, Salmonella is transferred to previously uncontaminated carcasses, but in small quantities. These small quantities can easily go undetected during sampling. Sensitivity analyses gave insight into the model performance and showed that the touching and cutting of lymph nodes during inspection can be an important source of carcass contamination. The model can serve as a tool to support discussions on the modernization of pig carcass inspection.

Evaluating the health impact of increased linseed consumption in the Danish population.

Consumption of linseeds has been suggested to have beneficial effects on human health. However, toxic constituents of linseed may compromise these benefits. We conducted a quantitative risk-benefit assessment to evaluate the overall health impact of increasing linseed intake up to 45 g/day in the Danish population (15-74 years). We quantified the risks associated with increased cadmium exposure and the benefits associated with increased intake of dietary fibre. Increased intakes of alpha-linoleic acid (ALA) were included in a sensitivity analysis. The overall health impact of different linseed intake scenarios was estimated in terms of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). We found that the beneficial effects of linseed due to increased intake of dietary fibre outweighed the adverse health effects due to increased cadmium exposure in all scenarios. Up to 670 DALYs/100,000 individuals could be averted per year by increasing linseed consumption in the Danish population. The estimated beneficial health impact increased further when including ALA in the assessment. Different sources of uncertainty might affect the results, and more research is needed on both the health effects associated with intake of linseed and its constituents, and the bioavailability of ALA and cadmium from linseed to further improve the risk-benefit assessment.

Evaluation of alternative methods of tunnel composting (submitted by the European Composting Network) II.

Two alternative methods for producing compost in a tunnel, from certain category (Cat.) 3 animal by-products (ABP) and other non-ABP material, were assessed. The first method proposed a minimum temperature of 55°C for 72 h and the second 60°C for 48 h, both with a maximum particle size of 200 mm. The assessment of the Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ) exclusively focused on Cat. 3 ABP materials (catering waste and processed foodstuffs of animal origin no longer intended for human consumption). The proposed composting processes were evaluated for their efficacy to achieve a reduction of at least 5 log10 of Enterococcus faecalis and Salmonella Senftenberg (775W, H2S negative) and at least 3 log10 of relevant thermoresistant viruses. The applicant provided a list of biological hazards that may enter the composting process and selected parvoviruses as the indicator of the thermoresistant viruses. The evidence provided by the applicant included: (a) literature data on thermal inactivation of biological hazards; (b) results from validation studies on the reduction of E. faecalis, Salmonella Senftenberg 775W H2S negative and canine parvovirus carried out in composting plants across Europe; (c) and experimental data from direct measurements of reduction of infectivity of murine parvovirus in compost material applying the time/temperature conditions of the two alternative methods. The evidence provided showed the capacity of the proposed alternative methods to reduce E. faecalis and Salmonella Senftenberg 775W H2S negative by at least 5 log10, and parvoviruses by at least 3 log10. The BIOHAZ Panel concluded that the two alternative methods under assessment can be considered to be equivalent to the processing method currently approved in the Commission Regulation (EU) No 142/2011.

BSE risk posed by ruminant collagen and gelatine derived from bones.

The European Commission requested an estimation of the BSE risk (C-, L- and H-BSE) from gelatine and collagen derived from ovine, caprine or bovine bones, and produced in accordance with Regulation (EC) No 853/2004, or Regulation (EC) No 1069/2009 and its implementing Regulation (EU) No 142/2011. A quantitative risk assessment was developed to estimate the BSE infectivity, measured in cattle oral infectious dose 50 (CoID50), in a small size batch of gelatine including one BSE-infected bovine or ovine animal at the clinical stage. The model was built on a scenario where all ruminant bones could be used for the production of gelatine and high-infectivity tissues remained attached to the skull (brain) and vertebral column (spinal cord). The risk and exposure pathways defined for humans and animals, respectively, were identified. Exposure routes other than oral via food and feed were considered and discussed but not assessed quantitatively. Other aspects were also considered as integrating evidence, like the epidemiological situation of the disease, the species barrier, the susceptibility of species to BSE and the assumption of an exponential dose-response relationship to determine the probability of BSE infection in ruminants. Exposure to infectivity in humans cannot be directly translated to risk of disease because the transmission barrier has not yet been quantified, although it is considered to be substantial, i.e. much greater amounts of infectivity would be needed to successfully infect a human and greater in the oral than in the parenteral route of exposure. The probability that no new case of BSE in the cattle or small ruminant population would be generated through oral exposure to gelatine made of ruminant bones is 99%-100% (almost certain) This conclusion is based on the current state of knowledge, the epidemiological situation of the disease and the current practices, and is also valid for collagen.

Re-evaluation of certain aspects of the EFSA Scientific Opinion of April 2010 on risk assessment of parasites in fishery products, based on new scientific data. Part 1: ToRs1-3.

Surveillance data published since 2010, although limited, showed that there is no evidence of zoonotic parasite infection in market quality Atlantic salmon, marine rainbow trout, gilthead seabream, turbot, meagre, Atlantic halibut, common carp and European catfish. No studies were found for greater amberjack, brown trout, African catfish, European eel and pikeperch. Anisakis pegreffii, A. simplex (s. s.) and Cryptocotyle lingua were found in European seabass, Atlantic bluefin tuna and/or cod, and Pseudamphistomum truncatum and Paracoenogonimus ovatus in tench, produced in open offshore cages or flow-through ponds or tanks. It is almost certain that fish produced in closed recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) or flow-through facilities with filtered water intake and exclusively fed heat-treated feed are free of zoonotic parasites. Since the last EFSA opinion, the UV-press and artificial digestion methods have been developed into ISO standards to detect parasites in fish, while new UV-scanning, optical, molecular and OMICs technologies and methodologies have been developed for the detection, visualisation, isolation and/or identification of zoonotic parasites in fish. Freezing and heating continue to be the most efficient methods to kill parasites in fishery products. High-pressure processing may be suitable for some specific products. Pulsed electric field is a promising technology although further development is needed. Ultrasound treatments were not effective. Traditional dry salting of anchovies successfully inactivated Anisakis. Studies on other traditional processes - air-drying and double salting (brine salting plus dry salting) - suggest that anisakids are successfully inactivated, but more data covering these and other parasites in more fish species and products is required to determine if these processes are always effective. Marinade combinations with anchovies have not effectively inactivated anisakids. Natural products, essential oils and plant extracts, may kill parasites but safety and organoleptic data are lacking. Advanced processing techniques for intelligent gutting and trimming are being developed to remove parasites from fish.

Update of the list of qualified presumption of safety (QPS) recommended microbiological agents intentionally added to food or feed as notified to EFSA 19: Suitability of taxonomic units notified to EFSA until September 2023.

The qualified presumption of safety (QPS) process was developed to provide a safety assessment approach for microorganisms intended for use in food or feed chains. The QPS approach is based on an assessment of published data for each taxonomic unit (TU), with respect to its taxonomic identity, the body of relevant knowledge and safety concerns. Safety concerns identified for a TU are, where possible, confirmed at the species/strain or product level and reflected by 'qualifications'. In the period covered by this Statement, no new information was found that would change the status of previously recommended QPS TUs. Of 71 microorganisms notified to EFSA between April and September 2023 (30 as feed additives, 22 as food enzymes or additives, 7 as novel foods and 12 from plant protection products [PPP]), 61 were not evaluated because: 26 were filamentous fungi, 1 was Enterococcus faecium, 5 were Escherichia coli, 1 was a bacteriophage (all excluded from the QPS evaluation) and 28 were TUs that already have a QPS status. The other 10 notifications belonged to 9 TUs which were evaluated for a possible QPS status: Ensifer adhaerens and Heyndrickxia faecalis did not get the QPS recommendation due to the limited body of knowledge about their occurrence in the food and/or feed chains and Burkholderia ubonensis also due to its ability to generate biologically active compounds with antimicrobial activity; Klebsiella pneumoniae, Serratia marcescens and Pseudomonas putida due to safety concerns. K. pneumoniae is excluded from future QPS evaluations. Chlamydomonas reinhardtii is recommended for QPS status with the qualification 'for production purposes only'; Clostridium tyrobutyricum is recommended for QPS status with the qualification 'absence of genetic determinants for toxigenic activity'; Candida oleophila has been added as a synonym of Yarrowia lipolytica. The Panel clarifies the extension of the QPS status for genetically modified strains.

Update of the list of qualified presumption of safety (QPS) recommended microbiological agents intentionally added to food or feed as notified to EFSA 20: Suitability of taxonomic units notified to EFSA until March 2024.

The qualified presumption of safety (QPS) process was developed to provide a safety assessment approach for microorganisms intended for use in food or feed chains. In the period covered by this statement, no new information was found that would change the status of previously recommended QPS TUs. The TUs in the QPS list were updated based on a verification, against their respective authoritative databases, of the correctness of the names and completeness of synonyms. A new procedure has been established to ensure the TUs are kept up to date in relation to recent taxonomical insights. Of 83 microorganisms notified to EFSA between October 2023 and March 2024 (47 as feed additives, 25 as food enzymes or additives, 11 as novel foods), 75 were not evaluated because: 15 were filamentous fungi, 1 was Enterococcus faecium, 10 were Escherichia coli, 1 was a Streptomyces (all excluded from the QPS evaluation) and 48 were TUs that already have a QPS status. Two of the other eight notifications were already evaluated for a possible QPS status in the previous Panel Statement: Heyndrickxia faecalis (previously Weizmannia faecalis) and Serratia marcescens. One was notified at genus level so could not be assessed for QPS status. The other five notifications belonging to five TUs were assessed for possible QPS status. Akkermansia muciniphila and Actinomadura roseirufa were still not recommended for QPS status due to safety concerns. Rhizobium radiobacter can be recommended for QPS status with the qualification for production purposes. Microbacterium arborescens and Burkholderia stagnalis cannot be included in the QPS list due to a lack of body of knowledge for its use in the food and feed chain and for B. stagnalis also due to safety concerns. A. roseirufa and B. stagnalis have been excluded from further QPS assessment.

Public health aspects of Vibrio spp. related to the consumption of seafood in the EU.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio vulnificus and non-O1/non-O139 Vibrio cholerae are the Vibrio spp. of highest relevance for public health in the EU through seafood consumption. Infection with V. parahaemolyticus is associated with the haemolysins thermostable direct haemolysin (TDH) and TDH-related haemolysin (TRH) and mainly leads to acute gastroenteritis. V. vulnificus infections can lead to sepsis and death in susceptible individuals. V. cholerae non-O1/non-O139 can cause mild gastroenteritis or lead to severe infections, including sepsis, in susceptible individuals. The pooled prevalence estimate in seafood is 19.6% (95% CI 13.7-27.4), 6.1% (95% CI 3.0-11.8) and 4.1% (95% CI 2.4-6.9) for V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus and non-choleragenic V. cholerae, respectively. Approximately one out of five V. parahaemolyticus-positive samples contain pathogenic strains. A large spectrum of antimicrobial resistances, some of which are intrinsic, has been found in vibrios isolated from seafood or food-borne infections in Europe. Genes conferring resistance to medically important antimicrobials and associated with mobile genetic elements are increasingly detected in vibrios. Temperature and salinity are the most relevant drivers for Vibrio abundance in the aquatic environment. It is anticipated that the occurrence and levels of the relevant Vibrio spp. in seafood will increase in response to coastal warming and extreme weather events, especially in low-salinity/brackish waters. While some measures, like high-pressure processing, irradiation or depuration reduce the levels of Vibrio spp. in seafood, maintaining the cold chain is important to prevent their growth. Available risk assessments addressed V. parahaemolyticus in various types of seafood and V. vulnificus in raw oysters and octopus. A quantitative microbiological risk assessment relevant in an EU context would be V. parahaemolyticus in bivalve molluscs (oysters), evaluating the effect of mitigations, especially in a climate change scenario. Knowledge gaps related to Vibrio spp. in seafood and aquatic environments are identified and future research needs are prioritised.

Persistence of microbiological hazards in food and feed production and processing environments.

Listeria monocytogenes (in the meat, fish and seafood, dairy and fruit and vegetable sectors), Salmonella enterica (in the feed, meat, egg and low moisture food sectors) and Cronobacter sakazakii (in the low moisture food sector) were identified as the bacterial food safety hazards most relevant to public health that are associated with persistence in the food and feed processing environment (FFPE). There is a wide range of subtypes of these hazards involved in persistence in the FFPE. While some specific subtypes are more commonly reported as persistent, it is currently not possible to identify universal markers (i.e. genetic determinants) for this trait. Common risk factors for persistence in the FFPE are inadequate zoning and hygiene barriers; lack of hygienic design of equipment and machines; and inadequate cleaning and disinfection. A well-designed environmental sampling and testing programme is the most effective strategy to identify contamination sources and detect potentially persistent hazards. The establishment of hygienic barriers and measures within the food safety management system, during implementation of hazard analysis and critical control points, is key to prevent and/or control bacterial persistence in the FFPE. Once persistence is suspected in a plant, a 'seek-and-destroy' approach is frequently recommended, including intensified monitoring, the introduction of control measures and the continuation of the intensified monitoring. Successful actions triggered by persistence of L. monocytogenes are described, as well as interventions with direct bactericidal activity. These interventions could be efficient if properly validated, correctly applied and verified under industrial conditions. Perspectives are provided for performing a risk assessment for relevant combinations of hazard and food sector to assess the relative public health risk that can be associated with persistence, based on bottom-up and top-down approaches. Knowledge gaps related to bacterial food safety hazards associated with persistence in the FFPE and priorities for future research are provided.

Results from the SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system in Denmark, July 2021 to June 2022.

The microbiological analysis of wastewater samples is increasingly used for the surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 globally. We described the setup process of the national SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system in Denmark, presented its main results during the first year of activities, from July 2021 to June 2022, and discussed their operational significance. The Danish SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system was designed to cover 85 % of the population in Denmark and it entailed taking three weekly samples from 230 sites. Samples were RT-qPCR tested for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, targeting the genetic markers N1, N2 and RdRp, and for two faecal indicators, Pepper Mild Mottle Virus and crAssphage. We calculated the weekly SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in the wastewater from each sampling site and monitored it in view of the results from individual testing, at the national and regional levels. We attempted to use wastewater results to identify potential local outbreaks, and we sequenced positive wastewater samples using Nanopore sequencing to monitor the circulation of viral variants in Denmark. The system reached its full implementation by October 2021 and covered up to 86.4 % of the Danish population. The system allowed for monitoring of the national and regional trends of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Denmark. However, the system contribution to the identification of potential local outbreaks was limited by the extensive information available from clinical testing. The sequencing of wastewater samples identified relevant variants of concern, in line with results from sequencing of human samples. Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, Denmark implemented a nationwide SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based surveillance system that integrated routine surveillance from individual testing. Today, while testing for COVID-19 at the community level has been discontinued, the system is on the frontline to monitor the occurrence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark.

Use of risk assessment and predictive microbiology in regulatory science related to the scientific opinions of the EFSA BIOHAZ Panel.

EFSA's Panel on Biological Hazards (BIOHAZ Panel) deals with questions on biological hazards relating to food safety and food-borne diseases. This covers food-borne zoonoses, transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, antimicrobial resistance, food microbiology, food hygiene, animal-by products, and associated waste management issues. The scientific assessments are diverse and frequently the development of new methodological approaches is required to deal with a mandate. Among the many risk factors, product characteristics (pH, water activity etc.), time and temperature of processing and storage along the food supply chain are highly relevant for assessing the biological risks. Therefore, predictive microbiology becomes an essential element of the assessments. Uncertainty analysis is incorporated in all BIOHAZ scientific assessments, to meet the general requirement for transparency. Assessments should clearly and unambiguously state what sources of uncertainty have been identified and their impact on the conclusions of the assessment. Four recent BIOHAZ Scientific Opinions are presented to illustrate the use of predictive modelling and quantitative microbial risk assessment principles in regulatory science. The Scientific Opinion on the guidance on date marking and related food information, gives a general overview on the use of predictive microbiology for shelf-life assessment. The Scientific Opinion on the efficacy and safety of high-pressure processing of food provides an example of inactivation modelling and compliance with performance criteria. The Scientific Opinion on the use of the so-called 'superchilling' technique for the transport of fresh fishery products illustrates the combination of heat transfer and microbial growth modelling. Finally, the Scientific Opinion on the delayed post-mortem inspection in ungulates, shows how variability and uncertainty, were quantitatively embedded in assessing the probability of Salmonella detection on carcasses, via stochastic modelling and expert knowledge elicitation.

Microbiological safety of aged meat.

The impact of dry-ageing of beef and wet-ageing of beef, pork and lamb on microbiological hazards and spoilage bacteria was examined and current practices are described. As 'standard fresh' and wet-aged meat use similar processes these were differentiated based on duration. In addition to a description of the different stages, data were collated on key parameters (time, temperature, pH and aw) using a literature survey and questionnaires. The microbiological hazards that may be present in all aged meats included Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC), Salmonella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, Listeria monocytogenes, enterotoxigenic Yersinia spp., Campylobacter spp. and Clostridium spp. Moulds, such as Aspergillus spp. and Penicillium spp., may produce mycotoxins when conditions are favourable but may be prevented by ensuring a meat surface temperature of -0.5 to 3.0°C, with a relative humidity (RH) of 75-85% and an airflow of 0.2-0.5 m/s for up to 35 days. The main meat spoilage bacteria include Pseudomonas spp., Lactobacillus spp. Enterococcus spp., Weissella spp., Brochothrix spp., Leuconostoc spp., Lactobacillus spp., Shewanella spp. and Clostridium spp. Under current practices, the ageing of meat may have an impact on the load of microbiological hazards and spoilage bacteria as compared to standard fresh meat preparation. Ageing under defined and controlled conditions can achieve the same or lower loads of microbiological hazards and spoilage bacteria than the variable log10 increases predicted during standard fresh meat preparation. An approach was used to establish the conditions of time and temperature that would achieve similar or lower levels of L. monocytogenes and Yersinia enterocolitica (pork only) and lactic acid bacteria (representing spoilage bacteria) as compared to standard fresh meat. Finally, additional control activities were identified that would further assure the microbial safety of dry-aged beef, based on recommended best practice and the outputs of the equivalence assessment.

Assessment on the efficacy of methods 2 to 5 and method 7 set out in Commission Regulation (EU) No 142/2011 to inactivate relevant pathogens when producing processed animal protein of porcine origin intended to feed poultry and aquaculture animals.

An assessment was conducted on the level of inactivation of relevant pathogens that could be present in processed animal protein of porcine origin intended to feed poultry and aquaculture animals when methods 2 to 5 and method 7, as detailed in Regulation (EU) No 142/2011, are applied. Five approved scenarios were selected for method 7. Salmonella Senftenberg, Enterococcus faecalis, spores of Clostridium perfringens and parvoviruses were shortlisted as target indicators. Inactivation parameters for these indicators were extracted from extensive literature search and a recent EFSA scientific opinion. An adapted Bigelow model was fitted to retrieved data to estimate the probability that methods 2 to 5, in coincidental and consecutive modes, and the five scenarios of method 7 are able to achieve a 5 log10 and a 3 log10 reduction of bacterial indicators and parvoviruses, respectively. Spores of C. perfringens were the indicator with the lowest probability of achieving the target reduction by methods 2 to 5, in coincidental and consecutive mode, and by the five considered scenarios of method 7. An expert knowledge elicitation was conducted to estimate the certainty of achieving a 5 log10 reduction of spores of C. perfringens considering the results of the model and additional evidence. A 5 log10 reduction of C. perfringens spores was judged: 99-100% certain for methods 2 and 3 in coincidental mode; 98-100% certain for method 7 scenario 3; 80-99% certain for method 5 in coincidental mode; 66-100% certain for method 4 in coincidental mode and for method 7 scenarios 4 and 5; 25-75% certain for method 7 scenario 2; and 0-5% certain for method 7 scenario 1. Higher certainty is expected for methods 2 to 5 in consecutive mode compared to coincidental mode.