A latent capture history model for digital aerial surveys.

We anticipate that unmanned aerial vehicles will become popular wildlife survey platforms. Because detecting animals from the air is imperfect, we develop a mark-recapture line transect method using two digital cameras, possibly mounted on one aircraft, which cover the same area with a short time delay between them. Animal movement between the passage of the cameras introduces uncertainty in individual identity, so individual capture histories are unobservable and are treated as latent variables. We obtain the likelihood for mark-recapture line transects without capture histories by automatically enumerating all possibilities within segments of the transect that contain ambiguous identities, instead of attempting to decide identities in a prior step. We call this method "Latent Capture-history Enumeration" (LCE). We include an availability model for species that are periodically unavailable for detection, such as cetaceans that are undetectable while diving. External data are needed to estimate the availability cycle length, but not the mean availability rate, if the full availability model is employed. We compare the LCE method with the recently developed cluster capture-recapture method (CCR), which uses a Palm likelihood approximation, providing the first comparison of CCR with maximum likelihood. The LCE estimator has slightly lower variance, more so as sample size increases, and close to nominal coverage probabilities. Both methods are approximately unbiased. We illustrate with semisynthetic data from a harbor porpoise survey.

Latent Cytomegalovirus Infection and Previous Capsular Polysaccharide Vaccination Predict Poor Vaccine Responses in Older Adults, Independent of Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are more prone to severe infection. Vaccination is a key strategy to reduce this risk. Some studies suggest vaccine efficacy may be reduced in patients with CKD, despite preserved maintenance of long-term responses to some pathogens and vaccines. Here, we investigated immune responses to 2 vaccines in patients with CKD to identify predictors of immunological responsiveness. METHODS: Individuals >65 years old, with or without nondialysis CKD (n = 36 and 29, respectively), were vaccinated with a nonadjuvanted seasonal influenza vaccine (T-dependent) and Pneumovax23 (23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide [PPV23], T-independent). Humoral responses were measured at baseline, day 28, and 6 months. Lymphocyte subset and plasma cell/blast analyses were performed using flow cytometry. Cytomegalovirus (CMV) serotyping was assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. RESULTS: Only modest responsiveness was observed to both vaccines, independent of CKD status (25% adequate response in controls vs. 12%-18% in the CKD group). Unexpectedly, previous immunization with PPV23 (median 10-year interval) and CMV seropositivity were associated with poor PPV23 responsiveness in both study groups (P < .001 and .003, respectively; multivariable linear regression model). Patients with CKD displayed expanded circulating populations of T helper 2 and regulatory T cells, which were unrelated to vaccine responses. Despite fewer circulating B cells, patients with CKD were able to mount a similar day 7 plasma cell/blast response to controls. CONCLUSION: Patients with nondialysis CKD can respond similarly to vaccines as age- and sex-matched healthy individuals. CKD patients display an immune signature that is independent of vaccine responsiveness. Prior PPV23 immunization and CMV infection may influence responsiveness to vaccination. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT02535052.

The Relationship Between Intact Parathyroid Hormone and 25-Hydroxyvitamin D in United Kingdom Resident South Asians and Whites: A Comparative, Cross-Sectional Observational Study.

Ethnic differences in intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH) at similar total 25 hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations have been reported between US resident Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics, but this has not been studied between South Asians and Whites. We, therefore, compared the iPTH relationship to 25(OH)D in UK resident South Asians and Whites. A comparative, cross-sectional observational study in which demographic and laboratory data on South Asian and White residents of Wolverhampton, UK were analyzed. Log-log models measured the association between 25(OH)D and the interaction term of ethnicity and iPTH. Seven hundred and seventy-two patients consisting of 315 white subjects (208 women) and 457 South Asian subjects (331 women) were studied. Compared to South Asians, White subjects were older, had higher serum concentrations of 25(OH)D, creatinine (lower eGFR), adjusted calcium and magnesium, but similar concentrations of iPTH and phosphate. In an adjusted model, variables significantly associated with 25(OH)D included age, creatinine, adjusted calcium and ethnicity; but not iPTH and the interaction term of ethnicity and iPTH (beta coefficient -0.071, 95% CI -0.209, 0.067, p=0.32). In our study cohort, iPTH was not, per se, influenced by 25 (OH)D. We found no ethnic differences in the association between iPTH and 25(OH)D between South Asians and White UK residents.

Vitamin A deficiency: experience from a tertiary referral UK hospital; not just a low- and middle-income country issue.

OBJECTIVE: Vitamin A (VA) deficiency, more common in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) secondary to malnutrition, is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The prevalence and impact of VA deficiency in high-income countries (HIC) where chronic conditions may predispose is less well understood. DESIGN: Interpretation of serum retinol may be affected by inflammation, so C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were sought. Binary logistic regression and generalised estimating equations were performed to review the relationship between CRP and VA. SETTING: We examined the scale of low and deficient VA status in our tertiary University Teaching Hospital (HIC). PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing serum retinol concentrations 2012-2016 were identified from laboratory records, and records examined. RESULTS: Totally, 628 assays were requested, with eighty-two patients VA low (0·7-0·99 Umol/l) or deficient (<0·7 Umol/l). Sixteen patients were symptomatic (fifteen deficient), predominantly visual. Only one symptomatic patient's VA deficiency was secondary to poor intake. Other symptomatic patients had chronic illnesses resulting in malabsorption. The incidence of a low VA level increases significantly with a raised CRP. CONCLUSION: The majority of patients tested either were replete or likely to have abnormal VA levels due to concomitant inflammation. A minority of patients had signs and symptoms of VA deficiency and was a cause of significant morbidity, but aetiology differs from LMIC, overwhelmingly malabsorption, most commonly secondary to surgery or hepatobiliary disease. A correlation between inflammation and low VA levels exists, which raises the possibility that requesting a VA level in an asymptomatic patient with active inflammation may be of questionable benefit.

Simvastatin Improves Neutrophil Function and Clinical Outcomes in Pneumonia. A Pilot Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial.

Rationale: Population studies suggest improved sepsis outcomes with statins, but the results of randomized controlled trials in patients with sepsis and organ dysfunction in critical care settings have broadly been negative. In vitro data suggest that statins modulate age-related neutrophil functions, improving neutrophil responses to infection, but only in older patients and at high doses.Objectives: To determine if high-dose simvastatin improves neutrophil functions and is safe and tolerated in hospitalized older adults with community-acquired pneumonia with sepsis (CAP + S) not admitted to critical care.Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled pilot study of simvastatin 80 mg or placebo for 7 days for patients with CAP + S aged 55 years or older admitted to a secondary care hospital. The Day 4 primary endpoint was change in neutrophil extracellular trap formation (NETosis). Day 4 secondary endpoints included neutrophil chemotaxis, safety and tolerability, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score, mortality, readmission, and markers of tissue degradation/inflammation.Measurements and Main Results: Four days of simvastatin adjuvant therapy in patients with CAP + S was associated with improvements in systemic neutrophil function (NETosis and chemotaxis), a reduction in systemic neutrophil elastase burden, and improved Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores compared with placebo. A post hoc analysis demonstrated that simvastatin therapy was associated with improved hospitalization-free survival compared with placebo. Simvastatin was well tolerated in this elderly and multimorbid patient group with common coprescription of macrolide antibiotics.Conclusions: This pilot study supports high-dose simvastatin as an adjuvant therapy for CAP + S in an older and milder disease cohort than assessed previously. A definitive multicenter study is now warranted in this population to assess the likelihood of benefit and harm.Clinical trial registered with EudraCT (2012-00343-29).

Subclinical atherosclerosis in systemic sclerosis and rheumatoid arthritis: a comparative matched-cohort study.

Systemic autoimmune inflammatory disorders confer a higher risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease leading to increased morbidity and mortality and reduced life expectancy compared to the general population. CV risk in systemic sclerosis (SSc) has not been studied extensively but surrogate markers of atherosclerosis namely carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and pulse wave velocity (PWV) are impaired in some but not all studies in SSc patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis assessed by cIMT and PWV between two well-characterized SSc and Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) cohorts. Consecutive SSc patients attending the Scleroderma Clinic were compared with RA patients recruited in the Dudley Rheumatoid Arthritis Co-morbidity Cohort (DRACCO), a prospective study examining CV burden in RA. Augmentation Index (Aix75) and cIMT were measured in all participants. Propensity score matching was utilised to select patients from the two cohorts with similar demographic characteristics, CV risk factors and inflammatory load. Unpaired analysis was performed using unpaired t test for continuous variables and χ2 test for dichotomous variables. Statistical analysis was repeated using paired t test for continuous normal variables and McNemar's test for dichotomous variables. Fifty five age- and sex-matched SSc and RA patients were included in the analysis. No difference was demonstrated between SSc and RA subjects regarding cIMT (0.66 mm vs 0.63 mm, respectively) and Aix75% measurements (33.4 vs 31.7, respectively) neither in paired (p = 0.623 for cIMT and p = 0.204 for Aix%) nor in unpaired t test analysis (p = 0.137 for cIMT and p = 0.397 for AIx%). The results of this comparative study show that subclinical atherosclerosis is comparable between SSc and RA, a systemic disease with well-defined high atherosclerotic burden. Such findings underscore the importance of CV risk management in SSc in parallel with other disease-related manifestations.

Effect of Intravenous Interferon ß-1a on Death and Days Free From Mechanical Ventilation Among Patients With Moderate to Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is associated with high mortality. Interferon (IFN) ß-1a may prevent the underlying event of vascular leakage. Objective: To determine the efficacy and adverse events of IFN-ß-1a in patients with moderate to severe ARDS. Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group trial conducted at 74 intensive care units in 8 European countries (December 2015-December 2017) that included 301 adults with moderate to severe ARDS according to the Berlin definition. The radiological and partial pressure of oxygen, arterial (Pao2)/fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio2) criteria for ARDS had to be met within a 24-hour period, and the administration of the first dose of the study drug had to occur within 48 hours of the diagnosis of ARDS. The last patient visit was on March 6, 2018. Interventions: Patients were randomized to receive an intravenous injection of 10 µg of IFN-ß-1a (144 patients) or placebo (152 patients) once daily for 6 days. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a score combining death and number of ventilator-free days at day 28 (score ranged from -1 for death to 27 if the patient was off ventilator on the first day). There were 16 secondary outcomes, including 28-day mortality, which were tested hierarchically to control type I error. Results: Among 301 patients who were randomized (mean age, 58 years; 103 women [34.2%]), 296 (98.3%) completed the trial and were included in the primary analysis. At 28 days, the median composite score of death and number of ventilator-free days at day 28 was 10 days (interquartile range, -1 to 20) in the IFN-ß-1a group and 8.5 days (interquartile range, 0 to 20) in the placebo group (P = .82). There was no significant difference in 28-day mortality between the IFN-ß-1a vs placebo groups (26.4% vs 23.0%; difference, 3.4% [95% CI, -8.1% to 14.8%]; P = .53). Seventy-four patients (25.0%) experienced adverse events considered to be related to treatment during the study (41 patients [28.5%] in the IFN-ß-1a group and 33 [21.7%] in the placebo group). Conclusions and Relevance: Among adults with moderate or severe ARDS, intravenous IFN-ß-1a administered for 6 days, compared with placebo, resulted in no significant difference in a composite score that included death and number of ventilator-free days over 28 days. These results do not support the use of IFN-ß-1a in the management of ARDS. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02622724.

Subclinical Reactivation of Cytomegalovirus Drives CD4+CD28null T-Cell Expansion and Impaired Immune Response to Pneumococcal Vaccination in Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis.

Background: Infection is the leading cause of death in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis (AAV). Expansion of CD4+CD28null T cells is associated with increased risk of infection and mortality, but is only present in cytomegalovirus (CMV)-seropositive individuals. We hypothesized that subclinical CMV reactivation drives CD4+CD28null T-cell expansion, that this is associated with impaired immune response to heterologous antigens, and that antiviral therapy may ameliorate this. Methods: In a proof-of-concept open-label clinical trial, 38 CMV-seropositive AAV patients were randomized to receive valacyclovir for 6 months or no intervention. CMV reactivation was measured monthly in plasma and urine. CD4+CD28null T cells were enumerated at baseline and at 6 months. At 6 months, 36 patients were vaccinated with a 13-valent pneumococcal vaccine. Serotype-specific immunoglobulin G was assayed before and 4 weeks postvaccination to calculate the antibody response ratio. Results: Valacyclovir treatment suppressed subclinical CMV reactivation and reduced CD4+CD28null T-cell proportion. CD4+CD28null T-cell reduction correlated with improved vaccine response, whereas CMV reactivation associated with reduced response to vaccination. Furthermore, expansion of CD4+CD28null T cells was associated with a reduction in the functional capacity of the CD4 compartment. Conclusions: Suppression of CMV may improve the immune response to a T-cell-dependent pneumococcal vaccination in patients with AAV, thus offering potential clinical benefit. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT01633476.

Glucocorticoid activation by 11ß-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase enzymes in relation to inflammation and glycaemic control in chronic kidney disease: A cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have dysregulated cortisol metabolism secondary to changes in 11ß-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (11ß-HSD) enzymes. The determinants of this and its clinical implications are poorly defined. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study to characterize shifts in cortisol metabolism in relation to renal function, inflammation and glycaemic control. Systemic activation of cortisol by 11ß-HSD was measured as the metabolite ratio (tetrahydrocortisol [THF]+5α-tetrahydrocortisol [5αTHF])/tetrahydrocortisone (THE) in urine. RESULTS: The cohort included 342 participants with a median age of 63 years, median estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 28 mL/min/1.73 m2 and median urine albumin-creatinine ratio of 35.5 mg/mmol. (THF+5αTHF)/THE correlated negatively with eGFR (Spearman's ρ = -0.116, P = 0.032) and positively with C-reactive protein (ρ = 0.208, P < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, C-reactive protein remained a significant independent predictor of (THF+5αTHF)/THE, but eGFR did not. Elevated (THF+5αTHF)/THE was associated with HbA1c (ρ = 0.144, P = 0.008) and diabetes mellitus (odds ratio for high vs low tertile of (THF+5αTHF)/THE 2.57, 95% confidence interval 1.47-4.47). Associations with diabetes mellitus and with HbA1c among the diabetic subgroup were independent of eGFR, C-reactive protein, age, sex and ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, glucocorticoid activation by 11ß-HSD in our cohort comprising a spectrum of renal function was associated with inflammation and impaired glucose control.

Therapeutic lumbar puncture for headache in idiopathic intracranial hypertension: Minimal gain, is it worth the pain?

BACKGROUND: Headache is disabling and prevalent in idiopathic intracranial hypertension. Therapeutic lumbar punctures may be considered to manage headache. This study evaluated the acute effect of lumbar punctures on headache severity. Additionally, the effect of lumbar puncture pressure on post-lumbar puncture headache was evaluated. METHODS: Active idiopathic intracranial hypertension patients were prospectively recruited to a cohort study, lumbar puncture pressure and papilloedema grade were noted. Headache severity was recorded using a numeric rating scale (NRS) 0-10, pre-lumbar puncture and following lumbar puncture at 1, 4 and 6 hours and daily for 7 days. RESULTS: Fifty two patients were recruited (mean lumbar puncture opening pressure 32 (28-37 cmCSF). At any point in the week post-lumbar puncture, headache severity improved in 71% (but a small reduction of -1.1 ± 2.6 numeric rating scale) and exacerbated in 64%, with 30% experiencing a severe exacerbation ≥ 4 numeric rating scale. Therapeutic lumbar punctures are typically considered in idiopathic intracranial hypertension patients with severe headaches (numeric rating scale ≥ 7). In this cohort, the likelihood of improvement was 92% (a modest reduction of headache pain by -3.0 ± 2.8 numeric rating scale, p = 0.012, day 7), while 33% deteriorated. Idiopathic intracranial hypertension patients with mild (numeric rating scale 1-3) or no headache (on the day of lumbar puncture, prior to lumbar puncture) had a high risk of post- lumbar puncture headache exacerbation (81% and 67% respectively). Importantly, there was no relationship between lumbar puncture opening pressure and headache response after lumbar puncture. CONCLUSION: Following lumbar puncture, the majority of idiopathic intracranial hypertension patients experience some improvement, but the benefit is small and post-lumbar puncture headache exacerbation is common, and in some prolonged and severe. Lumbar puncture pressure does not influence the post-lumbar puncture headache.

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and the Risk of Esophagitis, Barrett's Esophagus, and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma: A Primary Care Case-Control Study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic gastroesophageal reflux predisposes to the development of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Asthma and medication to treat it are associated with gastroesophageal reflux and EAC. We studied subjects with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) to examine the relationship between COPD and medication used to treat it, and the risk of reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus, and EAC. METHODS: A case-control study from the UK General Practice Research Database was conducted. Cases were aged 50 or above with a diagnosis of COPD and were matched with controls without a diagnosis of COPD by age, general practitioners practice, and time on the database. EAC was confirmed by cross-referencing cancer registry data. Cox-regression analysis was performed to assess the relationship between COPD, reflux esophagitis, Barrett's esophagus, and EAC. RESULTS: A total of 45,141 cases were studied [24,464 male, age 75 (50 to 100) years]. Among COPD cases there were 55 esophageal cancers (30 EAC) and 506 Barrett's esophagus, compared with 62 (34 EAC) and 329 Barrett's esophagus among controls. COPD was not associated with EAC on univariable [0.92 (0.56 to 1.50), P=0.73] and multivariable analysis [0.85 (0.52 to 1.40), P=0.53]. COPD was however, associated with Barrett's esophagus on univariable [0.92 (0.56 to 1.50), P=0.73] and multivariable [1.53 (1.31 to 1.78), P<0.001] analysis and reflux esophagitis on univariable [1.41 (1.36 to 1.48), P<0.001] and multivariable [1.33 (1.27 to 1.40), P<0.001] analysis. CONCLUSION: COPD is associated with an increased risk of reflux esophagitis and Barrett's esophagus but not EAC.

Combined liver-kidney transplantation versus liver transplant alone based on KDIGO stratification of estimated glomerular filtration rate: data from the United Kingdom Transplant registry - a retrospective cohort study.

Patient selection for combined liver-kidney transplantation (CLKT) is a current issue on the background of organ shortage. This study aimed to compare outcomes and post-transplant renal function for patients receiving CLKT and liver transplantation alone (LTA) based on native renal function using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) stratification. Using the UK National transplant database (NHSBT) 6035 patients receiving a LTA (N = 5912; 98%) or CLKT (N = 123; 2%) [2001-2013] were analysed, and stratified by KDIGO stages of eGFR at transplant (eGFR group-strata). There was no difference in patient/graft survival between LTA and CLKT in eGFR group-strata (P > 0.05). Of 377 patients undergoing renal replacement therapy (RRT) at time of transplantation, 305 (81%) and 72 (19%) patients received LTA and CLKT respectively. A significantly greater proportion of CLKT patients had severe end-stage renal disease (eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 ) at 1 year post-transplant compared to LTA (9.5% vs. 5.7%, P = 0.001). Patient and graft survival benefit for patients on RRT at transplantation was favouring CLKT versus LTA (P = 0.038 and P = 0.018, respectively) but the renal function of the long-term survivors was not superior following CLKT. The data does not support CLKT approach based on eGFR alone, and the advantage of CLKT appear to benefit only those who are on established RRT at the time of transplant.

Intravenous pulse methylprednisolone for induction of remission in severe ANCA associated Vasculitis: a multi-center retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous pulse methylprednisolone (MP) is commonly included in the management of severe ANCA associated vasculitis (AAV) despite limited evidence of benefit. We aimed to evaluate outcomes in patients who had, or had not received MP, along with standard therapy for remission induction in severe AAV. METHODS: We retrospectively studied 114 consecutive patients from five centres in Europe and the United States with a new diagnosis of severe AAV (creatinine > 500 µmol/L or dialysis dependency) and that received standard therapy (plasma exchange, cyclophosphamide and high-dose oral corticosteroids) for remission induction with or without pulse MP between 2000 and 2013. We evaluated survival, renal recovery, relapses, and adverse events over the first 12 months. RESULTS: Fifty-two patients received pulse MP in addition to standard therapy compared to 62 patients that did not. There was no difference in survival, renal recovery or relapses. Treatment with MP associated with higher risk of infection during the first 3 months (hazard ratio (HR) 2.7, 95%CI [1.4-5.3], p = 0.004) and higher incidence of diabetes (HR 6.33 [1.94-20.63], p = 0.002), after adjustment for confounding factors. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest that addition of pulse intravenous MP to standard therapy for remission induction in severe AAV may not confer clinical benefit and may be associated with more episodes of infection and higher incidence of diabetes.

Evaluating the learning curve for laparoscopic liver resection: a comparative study between standard and learning curve CUSUM.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) requires training in both hepatobiliary surgery and advanced laparoscopy. Available data on LLR learning curves are derived from pioneer surgeons. The aims of this study were to evaluate the LLR learning curve for second generation surgeons, and to compare different CUSUM methodology with and without risk adjustment. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of a prospective database of 111 consecutive patients who underwent LLR by two surgeons at a single centre between 2011 and 2016. The LLR learning curve for minor hepatectomy (MH) was evaluated for each surgeon using standard CUSUM before and after risk-adjusting for operative difficulty using the Iwate index, and compared with Learning Curve (LC) CUSUM. The end points were operative time and conversion rate. RESULTS: Standard CUSUM analysis identified a learning curve of 50-60 MH procedures. The corresponding learning curve reduced to 25-30 after risk-adjusting for operative difficulty, whilst LC-CUSUM identified a learning curve of 17-25 procedures. CONCLUSIONS: The learning curve for laparoscopic minor liver resection by second generation surgeons is shorter than that for pioneer surgeons. Laparoscopic HPB fellowship programmes may further shorten the learning curve, facilitating safe expansion of LLR. The LC-CUSUM method is an alternative technique that warrants further study.

The role of ultrasound-defined tenosynovitis and synovitis in the prediction of rheumatoid arthritis development.

OBJECTIVES: Tenosynovitis (TS) is common in early arthritis. However, the value of US-defined TS in predicting RA development is unclear. We assessed the predictive utility of US-defined TS alongside US-defined synovitis and clinical and serological variables in a prospective cohort of early arthritis patients. METHODS: One hundred and seven patients with clinically apparent synovitis of one or more joint and symptom duration ⩽3 months underwent baseline clinical, laboratory and US assessment of 19 bilateral joint sites and 16 bilateral tendon compartments. Diagnostic outcome was determined after 18 months, applying the 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria for RA. The predictive values of US-defined TS for persistent RA were compared with those of US-defined synovitis, clinical and serological variables. RESULTS: A total of 4066 US joint sites and 3424 US tendon compartments were included in the analysis. Forty-six patients developed persistent RA, 17 patients developed non-RA persistent disease and 44 patients had resolving disease at follow-up. US-defined TS in at least one tendon compartment at baseline was common in all groups (RA 85%, non-RA persistent disease 71% and resolving 70%). On multi-variate analysis, US-defined digit flexor TS provided independent predictive data over and above the presence of ACPA and US-defined joint synovitis. CONCLUSION: US-defined digit flexor TS provided independent predictive data for persistent RA development in patients with early arthritis. The predictive utility of this tendon site should be further assessed in a larger cohort; investigators designing imaging-based predictive algorithms for RA development should include this tendon component as a candidate variable.

The predictive value of ePAQ in the urodynamic diagnoses-A prospective cohort study.

AIMS: To assess whether the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire-Pelvic Floor (ePAQ-PF) had accuracy in predicting the urodynamic diagnoses of Detrusor Overactivity (DO) and/or Urodynamic Stress Incontinence (USI). METHODS: Tertiary urogynaecology unit linked to an academic university teaching hospital. Consecutive women who presented with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and were booked to have urodynamic studies. Women completed an ePAQ-PF prior to having urodynamics (UDS) by clinicians who were blinded to the ePAQ-PF results while conducting this procedure. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed for predictive accuracy of overactive bladder (OAB) score in DO and of stress urinary incontinence (SUI) score in USI. Prospective cohort study designed to meet the requirements of the standards for reporting of diagnostic accuracy (STARD). RESULTS: 390 women with a mean age of 54.2 (range 21-92) years were recruited. The majority (n = 294; 75%) were White Caucasian and had two children (n = 157; 40.3%). Of them, 67.2% (n = 262) had DO and USI was confirmed in 21.5% (n = 84). The area under the ROC curve for DO was 0.704 (95% confidence interval 0.650-0.759) and for USI it was 0.731 (95% confidence interval 0.652-0.778). CONCLUSIONS: The OAB and SUI scores on the ePAQ-PF demonstrated that they are fair predictors in diagnosing DO and USI. As the OAB and SUI score on ePAQ-PF increased so did the likelihood of DO (up to a score of 75) and USI on UDS.

Pulmonary Infections in the Elderly Lead to Impaired Neutrophil Targeting, Which Is Improved by Simvastatin.

RATIONALE: Dysregulated neutrophil functions with age and sepsis are described. Statins are associated with improved infection survival in some observational studies, but trials in critically ill patients have not shown benefit. Statins also alter neutrophil responses in vitro. OBJECTIVES: To assess neutrophil migratory accuracy with age during respiratory infections and determine if and how a statin intervention could alter these blunted responses. METHODS: The migratory accuracy of blood neutrophils from young (aged <35 yr) and old (aged >60 yr) patients in health and during a lower respiratory tract infection, community-acquired pneumonia, and pneumonia associated with sepsis was assessed with and without simvastatin. In vitro results were confirmed in a double-blind randomized clinical trial in healthy elders. Cell adhesion markers were assessed. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In vitro neutrophil migratory accuracy in the elderly deteriorated as the severity of the infectious pulmonary insult increased, without recovery at 6 weeks. Simvastatin rescued neutrophil migration with age and during mild to moderate infection, at high dose in older adults, but not during more severe sepsis. Confirming in vitro results, high-dose (80-mg) simvastatin improved neutrophil migratory accuracy without impeding other neutrophil functions in a double-blind randomized clinical trial in healthy elders. Simvastatin modified surface adhesion molecule expression and activity, facilitating accurate migration in the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Infections in older adults are associated with prolonged, impaired neutrophil migration, potentially contributing to poor outcomes. Statins improve neutrophil migration in vivo in health and in vitro in milder infective events, but not in severe sepsis, supporting their potential utility as an early intervention during pulmonary infections. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu (2011-002082-38).

Glomerular filtration rate: new age- and gender- specific reference ranges and thresholds for living kidney donation.

BACKGROUND: There is a need for a large, contemporary, multi-centre series of measured glomerular filtration rates (mGFR) from healthy individuals to determine age- and gender-specific reference ranges for GFR. We aimed to address this and to use the ranges to provide age- and gender-specific advisory GFR thresholds considered acceptable for living kidney donation. METHODS: Individual-level data including pre-donation mGFR from 2974 prospective living kidney donors from 18 UK renal centres performed between 2003 and 2015 were amalgamated. Age- and gender-specific GFR reference ranges were determined by segmented multiple linear regression and presented as means ± two standard deviations. RESULTS: Males had a higher GFR than females (92.0 vs 88.1 mL/min/1.73m2, P < 0.0001). Mean mGFR was 100 mL/min/1.73m2 until 35 years of age, following which there was a linear decline that was faster in females compared to males (7.7 vs 6.6 mL/min/1.73m2/decade, P = 0.013); 10.5% of individuals aged > 60 years had a GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m2. The GFR ranges were used along with other published evidence to provide advisory age- and gender-specific GFR thresholds for living kidney donation. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that GFR declines after 35 years of age, and the decline is faster in females. A significant proportion of the healthy population over 60 years of age have a GFR < 60 mL/min/1.73m2 which may have implications for the definition of chronic kidney disease. Age and gender differences in normal GFR can be used to determine advisory GFR thresholds for living kidney donation.

The risk of microbial contamination associated with six different needle-free connectors.

BACKGROUND: needle-free connectors are widely used in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to identify any differences between microbial ingress into six different connectors (three neutral-displacement, one negative-displacement and two anti-reflux connectors). METHODS: each connector underwent a 7-day clinical simulation involving repeated microbial contamination of the connector's injection ports with Staphylococcus aureus followed by decontamination and then saline flushes through each connector. The simulation was designed to be a surrogate marker for the potential risk of contamination in clinical practice. RESULTS: increasing numbers of S. aureus were detected in the flushes over the 7 days of sampling despite adherence to a rigorous decontamination programme. Significant differences in the number of S. aureus recovered from the saline flush of some types of connectors were also detected. Two different durations (5- and 15-second) of decontamination of the injection ports with 70% isopropyl alcohol (IPA) wipes were also investigated. There was no significant difference between the median number of S. aureus recovered in the saline flushes following a 5-second (165.5, 95% CI=93-260) or a 15-second decontamination regimen (75, 10-190). CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that there may be differences in the risk of internal microbial contamination with different types of connectors and that even 15 seconds of decontamination may not fully eradicate microorganisms from the injection ports of some devices.

Hospital acquired Acute Kidney Injury is associated with increased mortality but not increased readmission rates in a UK acute hospital.

BACKGROUND: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) has evoked much interest over the past decade and is reported to be associated with high inpatient mortality. Preventable death and increased readmission rates related to AKI have been the focus of considerable interest. METHODS: We studied hospital acquired AKI in all emergency hospital admissions, except transfers from ICU to ICU or patients known to renal services, to ascertain mortality and readmission rates, and trackable modifiable factors for death, using cox regression and Kaplan Meier survival curves. Data was extracted from the electronic patient records and a series of case notes reviewed. Admissions were included between April 2006 and March 2010 (and patients followed up until September 2011). RESULTS: Overall incidence of AKI was 2.2%, (AKI stage 1, 61%, stage 2,27% and stage 3, 12%). In patients who sustain in-hospital AKI, 34% die in hospital, 42% are dead at 90 days and 48% at 1 year post discharge, compared to 12% 1 year mortality in patients without AKI. In multivariable analyses, AKI is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality (Hazard Ratio 1.6: 95% confidence intervals 1.43-1.75: P < 0.001), death within 90 days of discharge (Hazard Ratio 1.5: 95% confidence intervals 1.3-1.9: P < 0.001) and subsequent mortality beyond 90 days (Hazard Ratio 2.9: 95% confidence intervals 2.7-3.1: P < 0.001) after adjustment for co-morbidities and peak C-reactive protein. Thirty percent of the patients who died in the first 90 days post discharge and had AKI, also had malignancy. Readmission rates at 30 and 90 days were not increased by AKI after adjustment for co-morbidities and peak C-reactive protein. CONCLUSIONS: A significant proportion of deaths in the first 90 days post-discharge may not be avoidable, due to malignancy and other end-stage disease. Readmission rates were not higher in patients who had had AKI.