A Phase 2 Randomized Trial of Survodutide in MASH and Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Dual agonism of glucagon receptor and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor may be more effective than GLP-1 receptor agonism alone for treating metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). The efficacy and safety of survodutide (a dual agonist of glucagon receptor and GLP-1 receptor) in persons with MASH and liver fibrosis are unclear. METHODS: In this 48-week, phase 2 trial, we randomly assigned adults with biopsy-confirmed MASH and fibrosis stage F1 through F3 in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to receive once-weekly subcutaneous injections of survodutide at a dose of 2.4, 4.8, or 6.0 mg or placebo. The trial had two phases: a 24-week rapid-dose-escalation phase, followed by a 24-week maintenance phase. The primary end point was histologic improvement (reduction) in MASH with no worsening of fibrosis. Secondary end points included a decrease in liver fat content by at least 30% and biopsy-assessed improvement (reduction) in fibrosis by at least one stage. RESULTS: A total of 293 randomly assigned participants received at least one dose of survodutide or placebo. Improvement in MASH with no worsening of fibrosis occurred in 47% of the participants in the survodutide 2.4-mg group, 62% of those in the 4.8-mg group, and 43% of those in the 6.0-mg group, as compared with 14% of those in the placebo group (P<0.001 for the quadratic dose-response curve as best-fitting model). A decrease in liver fat content by at least 30% occurred in 63% of the participants in the survodutide 2.4-mg group, 67% of those in the 4.8-mg group, 57% of those in the 6.0-mg group, and 14% of those in the placebo group; improvement in fibrosis by at least one stage occurred in 34%, 36%, 34%, and 22%, respectively. Adverse events that were more frequent with survodutide than with placebo included nausea (66% vs. 23%), diarrhea (49% vs. 23%), and vomiting (41% vs. 4%); serious adverse events occurred in 8% with survodutide and 7% with placebo. CONCLUSIONS: Survodutide was superior to placebo with respect to improvement in MASH without worsening of fibrosis, warranting further investigation in phase 3 trials. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim; 1404-0043 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04771273; EudraCT number, 2020-002723-11.).

A Phase 3, Randomized, Controlled Trial of Resmetirom in NASH with Liver Fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is a progressive liver disease with no approved treatment. Resmetirom is an oral, liver-directed, thyroid hormone receptor beta-selective agonist in development for the treatment of NASH with liver fibrosis. METHODS: We are conducting an ongoing phase 3 trial involving adults with biopsy-confirmed NASH and a fibrosis stage of F1B, F2, or F3 (stages range from F0 [no fibrosis] to F4 [cirrhosis]). Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive once-daily resmetirom at a dose of 80 mg or 100 mg or placebo. The two primary end points at week 52 were NASH resolution (including a reduction in the nonalcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD] activity score by ≥2 points; scores range from 0 to 8, with higher scores indicating more severe disease) with no worsening of fibrosis, and an improvement (reduction) in fibrosis by at least one stage with no worsening of the NAFLD activity score. RESULTS: Overall, 966 patients formed the primary analysis population (322 in the 80-mg resmetirom group, 323 in the 100-mg resmetirom group, and 321 in the placebo group). NASH resolution with no worsening of fibrosis was achieved in 25.9% of the patients in the 80-mg resmetirom group and 29.9% of those in the 100-mg resmetirom group, as compared with 9.7% of those in the placebo group (P<0.001 for both comparisons with placebo). Fibrosis improvement by at least one stage with no worsening of the NAFLD activity score was achieved in 24.2% of the patients in the 80-mg resmetirom group and 25.9% of those in the 100-mg resmetirom group, as compared with 14.2% of those in the placebo group (P<0.001 for both comparisons with placebo). The change in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels from baseline to week 24 was -13.6% in the 80-mg resmetirom group and -16.3% in the 100-mg resmetirom group, as compared with 0.1% in the placebo group (P<0.001 for both comparisons with placebo). Diarrhea and nausea were more frequent with resmetirom than with placebo. The incidence of serious adverse events was similar across trial groups: 10.9% in the 80-mg resmetirom group, 12.7% in the 100-mg resmetirom group, and 11.5% in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: Both the 80-mg dose and the 100-mg dose of resmetirom were superior to placebo with respect to NASH resolution and improvement in liver fibrosis by at least one stage. (Funded by Madrigal Pharmaceuticals; MAESTRO-NASH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03900429.).

MASH clinical trials and drugs pipeline: An impending Tsunami.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), formerly known as NAFLD, has ascended to prominence as the predominant chronic liver disease in Western countries and now stands as a leading cause of liver transplantations. In the more advanced stage, Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatohepatitis (MASH), may lead to fibrosis, a gateway to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and liver failure. Despite extensive research and exploration of various drug mechanisms, the anticipation for the inaugural approved drug to materialize by 2024 is palpable, marking a significant milestone. Numerous pathways have been investigated for MASH treatment, exploring thyroid hormone receptors, glucagon-like peptides 1, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors, and agents influencing hepatic steatosis synthesis, inflammatory pathways, genetic components, fibrosis mechanisms, and an array of other avenues. Over time, key regulatory directions have crystallized, now manifesting in two primary endpoints under investigation: resolution of steatohepatitis without worsening fibrosis and/or improvement of fibrosis stage without worsening of steatohepatitis, especially used in Phase 3 clinical trials, while alternative non-invasive endpoints are explored in Phase 2 trials. The prospect of proving efficacy in clinical trials opens doors to combination therapies, evaluating the ideal combination of drugs to yield comprehensive benefits, extending beyond the liver to other organs. Certain combination drug trials are already underway. In this review, we discuss the forefront of MASH drug research as of 2023/2024, illuminating mechanisms, outcomes, and future trajectories. Furthermore, we tackle the challenges confronting MASH trials and propose potential strategies for surmounting them.

MASLD/MetALD and mortality in individuals with any cardio-metabolic risk factor: A population-based study with 26.7 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A new term, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), has been proposed by a multi-society expert panel. However, it remains unclear whether hepatic steatosis per se in MASLD contributes to an increased risk of mortality in individuals with any cardio-metabolic risk factor (CMRF), which is also a significant risk factor for increased mortality. This study aimed to compare all-cause and cause-specific mortality between the "MASLD/MetALD" and "no steatotic liver disease (SLD)" groups in individuals with any CMRF. APPROACH AND RESULTS: A population-based cohort study was conducted using 10,750 participants of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. All-cause and cause-specific (cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, and liver) mortality risks were compared between the "MASLD," "MetALD," and "no SLD" groups using the Cox proportional hazards model with complex survey design weights, adjusted for confounders. Over 26 years, the "MASLD" group did not show significantly increased all-cause (adjusted HR 1.04[95% CI: 0.95-1.14], p = 0.413), cardiovascular (0.88 [0.75-1.04], p = 0.139), or cancer (1.06[0.84-1.33], p = 0.635) mortality risk compared to the "no SLD" group in individuals with any CMRF. The MetALD group was associated with increased all-cause (1.41 [1.05-1.89], p = 0.022), cancer (2.35 [1.33-4.16], p = 0.004), and liver (15.04 [2.96-76.35], p = 0.002) mortality risk compared with the no SLD group. This trend was more pronounced in the MetALD group with advanced fibrosis assessed by Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4). CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with CMRF, the presence of steatotic liver disease (MASLD) alone did not increase the risk of mortality, except in cases with more alcohol consumption (MetALD). Therefore controlling metabolic risk factors and reducing alcohol consumption in people with MASLD or MetALD will be crucial steps to improve long-term health outcomes.

Incidence of liver cancer in young adults according to the Global Burden of Disease database 2019.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The worldwide burden of cancer is increasing in younger populations. However, the epidemiology of primary liver cancer remains understudied in young adults compared to other cancer forms. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This study analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease study between 2010 and 2019 to assess the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years associated with primary liver cancer in the young (15-49 y), stratified by region, nation, sociodemographic index, and sex. The study found a global estimate of 78,299 primary liver cancer cases, 60,602 deaths, and 2.90 million disability-adjusted life years in the young population. The Western Pacific region exhibited the highest burden in 2019, showing the most significant increase compared to other regions between 2010 and 2019. More than half of the countries worldwide have undergone an increase in primary liver cancer incidence rates in young adults. Around 12.51% of deaths due to primary liver cancer occur in young individuals. Throughout the study period, there was a significant decline in primary liver cancer mortality due to most etiologies, except for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease-attributable primary liver cancer (annual percentage change + 0.87%, 95% CI: 0.70%-1.05%) and alcohol-attributable primary liver cancer (annual percentage change + 0.21%, 95% CI: 0.01%-0.42%). The limitations of the Global Burden of Disease database include reliance on the quality of primary data and possible underestimation of alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past decade, there has been a marked increase in the burden of primary liver cancer, especially that originating from steatotic liver disease. This trend calls for the development of urgent and comprehensive strategies to mitigate this rising burden globally.

Serum identification of at-risk MASH: The metabolomics-advanced steatohepatitis fibrosis score (MASEF).

BACKGROUND: Early identification of those with NAFLD activity score ≥ 4 and significant fibrosis (≥F2) or at-risk metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is a priority as these patients are at increased risk for disease progression and may benefit from therapies. We developed and validated a highly specific metabolomics-driven score to identify at-risk MASH. METHODS: We included derivation (n = 790) and validation (n = 565) cohorts from international tertiary centers. Patients underwent laboratory assessment and liver biopsy for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease. Based on 12 lipids, body mass index, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase, the MASEF score was developed to identify at-risk MASH and compared to the FibroScan-AST (FAST) score. We further compared the performance of a FIB-4 + MASEF algorithm to that of FIB-4 + liver stiffness measurements (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE). RESULTS: The diagnostic performance of the MASEF score showed an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.79), 0.69, 0.74, 0.53, and 0.85 in the derivation cohort, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.83), 0.78, 0.65, 0.48, and 0.88 in the validation cohort, while FibroScan-AST performance in the validation cohort was 0.74 (95% CI 0.68-0.79; p = 0.064), 0.58, 0.79, 0.67, and 0.73, respectively. FIB-4+MASEF showed similar overall performance compared with FIB-4 + LSM by VCTE ( p = 0.69) to identify at-risk MASH. CONCLUSION: MASEF is a promising diagnostic tool for the assessment of at-risk MASH. It could be used alternatively to LSM by VCTE in the algorithm that is currently recommended by several guidance publications.

A global action agenda for turning the tide on fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver disease is a major public health threat due to its very high prevalence and related morbidity and mortality. Focused and dedicated interventions are urgently needed to target disease prevention, treatment, and care. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We developed an aligned, prioritized action agenda for the global fatty liver disease community of practice. Following a Delphi methodology over 2 rounds, a large panel (R1 n = 344, R2 n = 288) reviewed the action priorities using Qualtrics XM, indicating agreement using a 4-point Likert-scale and providing written feedback. Priorities were revised between rounds, and in R2, panelists also ranked the priorities within 6 domains: epidemiology, treatment and care, models of care, education and awareness, patient and community perspectives, and leadership and public health policy. The consensus fatty liver disease action agenda encompasses 29 priorities. In R2, the mean percentage of "agree" responses was 82.4%, with all individual priorities having at least a super-majority of agreement (> 66.7% "agree"). The highest-ranked action priorities included collaboration between liver specialists and primary care doctors on early diagnosis, action to address the needs of people living with multiple morbidities, and the incorporation of fatty liver disease into relevant non-communicable disease strategies and guidance. CONCLUSIONS: This consensus-driven multidisciplinary fatty liver disease action agenda developed by care providers, clinical researchers, and public health and policy experts provides a path to reduce the prevalence of fatty liver disease and improve health outcomes. To implement this agenda, concerted efforts will be needed at the global, regional, and national levels.

Efficacy, tolerability and pharmacokinetics of survodutide, a glucagon/glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor dual agonist, in cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Survodutide is a glucagon/glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor dual agonist in development for treatment of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). We investigated survodutide in people with cirrhosis. METHODS: This multinational, non-randomized, open-label, phase 1 clinical trial initially evaluated a single subcutaneous (s.c.) dose of survodutide 0.3 mg in people with Child-Pugh class A, B or C cirrhosis and healthy individuals with or without overweight/obesity matched for age, sex, and weight; the primary endpoints were the area under the plasma concentration-time curve from 0 to infinity (AUC0-∞) and maximal plasma concentration (Cmax). Subsequently, people with overweight/obesity with or without cirrhosis and Child-Pugh class A or B received once-weekly s.c. doses escalated from 0.3 mg to 6.0 mg over 24 weeks then maintained for 4 weeks; the primary endpoint was drug-related treatment-emergent adverse events, with MASH/cirrhosis-related endpoints explored. RESULTS: In the single-dose cohorts (n = 41), mean AUC0-∞ and Cmax were similar in those with cirrhosis compared with healthy individuals (90% confidence intervals for adjusted geometric mean ratios spanned 1). Drug-related adverse events occurred in 25.0% of healthy individuals and ≤25.0% of those with cirrhosis after single doses, and 82.4% and 87.5%, respectively, of the multiple-dose cohorts (n = 41) over 28 weeks. Liver fat content, liver stiffness, liver volume, body weight, and other hepatic and metabolic disease markers were generally reduced after 28 weeks of survodutide treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Survodutide is generally tolerable in people with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis, does not require pharmacokinetic-related dose adjustment, and may improve liver-related non-invasive tests, supporting its investigation for MASH-related cirrhosis. Clinical trial number; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05296733. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Survodutide is a glucagon receptor/glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor dual agonist in development for treatment of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), which causes cirrhosis in ∼20% of cases. This trial delineates the pharmacokinetic and safety profile of survodutide in people with compensated or decompensated cirrhosis, and revealed associated reductions in liver fat content, markers of liver fibrosis and body weight. These findings have potential relevance for people with MASH-including those with decompensated cirrhosis, who are usually excluded from clinical trials of investigational drugs. Based on this study, further investigation of survodutide for MASH-related cirrhosis is warranted.

The Global Burden of Alcohol-associated Cirrhosis and Cancer in Young and Middle-aged Adults.

Alcohol is a substance that impacts premature mortality and morbidity.1 The liver is invariably subjected to the impact of alcohol, which can result in cirrhosis and cancer. Alcohol also has detrimental effects that extend beyond the liver. While traditionally associated with advanced age, emerging data reported a rising burden of cancers and alcohol-associated liver disease in the young.1-3 Thus, the primary objective was to evaluate the trend of alcohol-associated cirrhosis and cancer in young and middle-aged adults (aged 15-49) utilizing the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019.4 We chose the age group less than 50 years old based on the definition of early-onset cancer and the inherent selection of the age group in the GBD database.4-6 The detailed methods are provided in the Supplementary Appendix. Briefly, data were sourced from population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems, or verbal autopsy studies. Verbal autopsy is a well-established approach for monitoring health, providing valuable information on mortality patterns and the reasons behind deaths in areas lacking robust medical death certification processes. The researchers employed the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate the burden linked to cancer and cirrhosis associated with alcohol use.

Degree of Discordance Between FIB-4 and Transient Elastography: An Application of Current Guidelines on General Population Cohort.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In the American Gastroenterological Association/American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AGA/AASLD) Clinical Care Pathway, Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) is used to stratify patients at risk for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) as low-, indeterminate-, or high-risk for developing advanced liver fibrosis. We assessed the performance of FIB-4 in a general population. METHODS: Using the 2017 to 2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys dataset, we selected subjects ≥18 years who had FibroScan data. We followed AGA/AASLD guidelines to identify subjects with characteristics that place them at risk for MASLD-associated liver fibrosis. Other causes of liver disease were excluded. Our final cohort had 3741 subjects. We then categorized these subjects based on recommended FIB-4 cutoffs. FibroScan liver stiffness measurement (LSM) served as the outcome measurement. RESULTS: Among the 2776 subjects (74.2%) classified as low risk by FIB-4, 277 subjects (10%) were not classified at low risk by LSM, and 75 subjects (2.7%) were classified as high risk by LSM. Among the 86 subjects classified as high risk by FIB-4, 68 subjects (79.1%) were not at high risk by LSM, and 54 subjects (62.8%) were at low risk by LSM. Subjects misclassified by FIB-4 as low risk were older; had a higher body mass index, waist circumference, glycohemoglobin A1c level, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, diastolic blood pressure, controlled attenuation parameter score, white blood cell count, alkaline phosphatase, and fasting glucose level; but had lower high-density lipoprotein, and albumin level (all P < .05). Misclassified subjects were also more likely to have prediabetes/diabetes. CONCLUSION: Using FIB-4 in the AGA/AASLD guidelines to risk-stratify subjects at risk for MASLD-associated fibrosis results in many subjects being misclassified into the low- and high-risk categories. Therefore, it may be worthwhile considering caution in interpretation and/or alternative strategies.

Longitudinal Outcomes Associated With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease: A Meta-analysis of 129 Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The progression of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) has been found to manifest in a series of hepatic and extrahepatic complications. A comprehensive meta-analysis of the longitudinal outcomes associated with MASLD has yet to be conducted. METHODS: To investigate the longitudinal outcomes associated with MASLD, Medline and Embase databases were searched to identify original studies that evaluated the longitudinal risks of incident clinical outcomes among MASLD patients compared with non-MASLD individuals. DerSimonian Laird random-effects meta-analysis was performed. Pooled effect estimates were calculated, and heterogeneity among studies was evaluated. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-nine studies were included in the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis revealed a significant increase in the risk of cardiovascular outcomes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-1.60; P < .01), various metabolic outcomes such as incident hypertension (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.46-2.08; P < .01), diabetes (HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 2.10-3.13; P < .01), pre-diabetes (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.22-2.35; P < .01), metabolic syndrome (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.13-5.85; P = .02), chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.27-1.50; P < .01), as well as all cancers (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.35-1.76; P < .01) among MASLD patients compared with non-MASLD individuals. By subgroup analysis, MASLD patients with advanced liver disease (HR, 3.60; 95% CI, 2.10-6.18; P < .01) were also found to be associated with a significantly greater risk (P = .02) of incident diabetes than those with less severe MASLD (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.0-2.45; P = .02) when compared with non-MASLD. CONCLUSIONS: The present study emphasizes the association between MASLD and its clinical outcomes including cardiovascular, metabolic, oncologic, and other outcomes. The multisystemic nature of MASLD found in this analysis requires treatment targets to reduce systemic events and end organ complications.

Global prevalence, clinical characteristics, surveillance, treatment allocation, and outcomes of alcohol-associated hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although the burden of alcohol-associated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increasing with rising alcohol consumption, clinical presentation and outcomes of alcohol-associated HCC have not been systematically assessed. We aimed to determine the prevalence, clinical characteristics, surveillance rates, treatment allocation, and outcomes of alcohol-associated HCC. METHODS: Medline and Embase were searched from inception to January 2023. Proportional data were analyzed using a generalized linear mixed model. The odds ratio (OR) or mean difference comparing alcohol-associated HCC and other causes was obtained with pairwise meta-analysis. Survival outcomes were evaluated using a pooled analysis of hazard ratios. RESULTS: Of 4,824 records identified, 55 articles (86,345 patients) were included. Overall, 30.4% (CI: 24.0%-37.7%) of HCC were alcohol-associated, with the highest proportion in Europe and the lowest in the Americas. People with alcohol-associated HCC were more likely male, but similar in age and comorbidities, compared to other causes. 20.8% (CI: 11.4%-34.9%) of people with alcohol-associated HCC underwent surveillance compared to 35.0%, 31.6%, and 21.4% in hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and metabolic dysfunction-associated HCC, respectively (all P<0.05). Alcohol-associated HCC had a lower likelihood of BCLC stage (0/A) (OR: 0.7, CI: 0.6-0.9; P=0.018) and curative therapy (24.5% vs 33.9%; OR 0.7, CI: 0.5-0.9; P=0.003), and higher mortality (HR: 1.3, CI: 1.1-1.5, P=0.012) when compared to other causes. CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol-associated HCC is associated with lower surveillance rates, more advanced BCLC stage, lower likelihood of receiving curative therapy, and poorer survival. These data call for measures to reduce heavy alcohol consumption and improve strategies for effective HCC surveillance in high-risk individuals.

From Shadows to Spotlight: Exploring the Escalating Burden of Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease and Alcohol Use Disorder in Young Women.

INTRODUCTION: The burden of alcohol-related complications is considerable, particularly alcohol-associated liver disease and alcohol use disorder (AUD). However, there are deficiencies in comprehensive epidemiological research focusing on these issues, especially among young women who display higher susceptibility to such complications compared with their male counterparts. We thus aimed to determine the global burden of these conditions in this vulnerable group. METHODS: Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we analyzed the prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of alcohol-associated cirrhosis (AC), liver cancer from alcohol, and AUD in young women. The findings were categorized by region, nation, and sociodemographic index. RESULTS: The highest age-standardized prevalence rates were observed in AUD (895.96 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 722.6-1,103.58]), followed by AC (65.33 [95% UI 48.37-86.49]) and liver cancer from alcohol (0.13 [95% UI 0.09-0.19]) per 100,000 people. The highest age-standardized mortality rates were observed in AC (0.75 [95% UI 0.55-0.97]), followed by AUD (0.48 [95% UI 0.43-0.53]) and liver cancer from alcohol (0.06 [95% UI 0.04-0.09]). The highest burdens of AC and AUD were observed in Central Europe, whereas the high-income Asia Pacific had the highest burden of liver cancer from alcohol. DISCUSSION: Throughout the past decade, the trend of AUD varied among regions while the impact of alcohol-associated liver disease has increased, requiring urgent public health strategy to mitigate these complications, particularly in female patients in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

The Burden of Overweight and Obesity-Associated Gastrointestinal Cancers in Low and Lower-Middle-Income Countries: A Global Burden of Disease 2019 Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is associated with cancer, including gastrointestinal (GI). Data from low (LICs) and lower-middle-income countries (MICs) are limited. METHODS: We utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to determine the mortality from GI cancer risk of high body mass index (BMI) in these countries. RESULTS: Mortality rates of GI cancers from high BMI increased in LICs and lower MICs, while burdens decreased or remained stable in high and middle-income countries. DISCUSSION: The GI cancer-related burden from high BMI increased in LICs and lower MICs, necessitating a concerted effort to tackle the obesity pandemic.

Machine learning models are superior to noninvasive tests in identifying clinically significant stages of NAFLD and NAFLD-related cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We assessed the performance of machine learning (ML) models in identifying clinically significant NAFLD-associated liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We implemented ML models including logistic regression (LR), random forest (RF), and artificial neural network to predict histological stages of fibrosis using 17 demographic/clinical features in 1370 patients with NAFLD who underwent liver biopsy, FibroScan, and labs within a 6-month period at multiple U.S. centers. Histological stages of fibrosis (≥F2, ≥F3, and F4) were predicted using ML, FibroScan liver stiffness measurements, and Fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). NASH with significant fibrosis (NAS ≥ 4 + ≥F2) was assessed using ML, FibroScan-AST (FAST) score, FIB-4, and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). We used 80% of the cohort to train and 20% to test the ML models. For ≥F2, ≥F3, F4, and NASH + NAS ≥ 4 + ≥F2, all ML models, especially RF, had primarily higher accuracy and AUC compared with FibroScan, FIB-4, FAST, and NFS. AUC for RF versus FibroScan and FIB-4 for ≥F2, ≥F3, and F4 were (0.86 vs. 0.81, 0.78), (0.89 vs. 0.83, 0.82), and (0.89 vs. 0.86, 0.85), respectively. AUC for RF versus FAST, FIB-4, and NFS for NASH + NAS ≥ 4 + ≥F2 were (0.80 vs. 0.77, 0.66, 0.63). For NASH + NAS ≥ 4 + ≥F2, all ML models had lower/similar percentages within the indeterminate zone compared with FIB-4 and NFS. Overall, ML models performed better in sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value compared with traditional noninvasive tests. CONCLUSIONS: ML models performed better overall than FibroScan, FIB-4, FAST, and NFS. ML could be an effective tool for identifying clinically significant liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with NAFLD.

Magnetic resonance elastography-based prediction model for hepatic decompensation in NAFLD: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) is an accurate, continuous biomarker of liver fibrosis; however, the optimal combination with clinical factors to predict the risk of incident hepatic decompensation is unknown. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate an MRE-based prediction model for hepatic decompensation for patients with NAFLD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: This international multicenter cohort study included participants with NAFLD undergoing MRE from 6 hospitals. A total of 1254 participants were randomly assigned as training (n = 627) and validation (n = 627) cohorts. The primary end point was hepatic decompensation, defined as the first occurrence of variceal hemorrhage, ascites, or HE. Covariates associated with hepatic decompensation on Cox-regression were combined with MRE to construct a risk prediction model in the training cohort and then tested in the validation cohort. The median (IQR) age and MRE values were 61 (18) years and 3.5 (2.5) kPa in the training cohort and 60 (20) years and 3.4 (2.5) kPa in the validation cohort, respectively. The MRE-based multivariable model that included age, MRE, albumin, aspartate aminotransferase, and platelets had excellent discrimination for the 3- and 5-year risk of hepatic decompensation (c-statistic 0.912 and 0.891, respectively) in the training cohort. The diagnostic accuracy remained consistent in the validation cohort with a c-statistic of 0.871 and 0.876 for hepatic decompensation at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and was superior to Fibrosis-4 in both cohorts ( p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: An MRE-based prediction model allows for accurate prediction of hepatic decompensation and assists in the risk stratification of patients with NAFLD.

IL-31 levels correlate with pruritus in patients with cholestatic and metabolic liver diseases and is farnesoid X receptor responsive in NASH.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Pruritus is associated with multiple liver diseases, particularly those with cholestasis, but the mechanism remains incompletely understood. Our aim was to evaluate serum IL-31 as a putative biomarker of pruritus in clinical trials of an farnesoid X receptor (FXR) agonist, cilofexor, in patients with NASH, primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Serum IL-31 was measured in clinical studies of cilofexor in NASH, PSC, and PBC. In patients with PSC or PBC, baseline IL-31 was elevated compared to patients with NASH and healthy volunteers (HVs). IL-31 correlated with serum bile acids among patients with NASH, PBC, and PSC. Baseline IL-31 levels in PSC and PBC were positively correlated with Visual Analog Scale for pruritus and 5-D itch scores. In patients with NASH, cilofexor dose-dependently increased IL-31 from Week (W)1 to W24. In patients with NASH receiving cilofexor 100 mg, IL-31 was higher in those with Grade 2-3 pruritus adverse events (AEs) than those with Grade 0-1 pruritus AEs. IL-31 weakly correlated with C4 at baseline in patients with NASH, and among those receiving cilofexor 100 mg, changes in IL-31 and C4 from baseline to W24 were negatively correlated. IL-31 messenger RNA (mRNA) was elevated in hepatocytes from patients with PSC and NASH compared to HVs. In a humanized liver murine model, obeticholic acid increased IL-31 mRNA expression in human hepatocytes and serum levels of human IL-31. CONCLUSIONS: IL-31 levels correlate with pruritus in patients with cholestatic disease and NASH, with FXR agonist therapy resulting in higher serum levels in the latter group. IL-31 appears to derive in part from increased hepatocyte expression. These findings have therapeutic implications for patients with liver disease and pruritus.

Examining the interim proposal for name change to steatotic liver disease in the US population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Fatty liver is the commonest liver condition globally and traditionally associated with NAFLD. A consensus meeting was held in Chicago to explore various terminologies. Herein, we explore the proposed changes in nomenclature in a population data set from the US. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Statistical analysis was conducted using survey-weighted analysis. Assessment of fatty liver was conducted with vibration-controlled transient elastography. A controlled attenuation parameter of 288 dB/m was used to identify hepatic steatosis. Patients were classified into nonalcoholic steatotic liver disease, alcohol-associated steatotic liver disease, and viral hepatitis steatotic liver disease. Liver stiffness measures at ≥8.8, ≥11.7, and ≥14 kPa were used to identify clinically significant fibrosis, advanced fibrosis, and cirrhosis, respectively. A total of 5102 individuals were included in the analysis. Using a survey-weighted analysis, a total of 25.43%, 6.95%, and 0.73% of the population were classified as nonalcoholic steatotic liver disease, alcohol-associated steatotic liver disease, and viral hepatitis steatotic liver disease, respectively. A sensitivity analysis at controlled attenuation parameter of 248 dB/m and fatty liver index found similar distribution. In a comparison between nonalcoholic steatotic liver disease, alcohol-associated steatotic liver disease, and viral hepatitis steatotic liver disease, there was no significant difference between the odds of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis between groups. However, viral hepatitis steatotic liver disease individuals were found to have a significantly higher odds of clinically significant fibrosis (OR: 3.76, 95% CI, 1.27-11.14, p =0.02) compared with nonalcoholic steatotic liver disease. CONCLUSIONS: The current analysis assessed the proposed changes based on discussions from the consensus meeting. Although the definitions are an interim analysis of discussions, steatotic liver disease respects the underlying liver etiology and reduces stigma while increasing awareness of FL among viral and alcohol-associated steatosis/steatohepatitis.

Tropifexor plus cenicriviroc combination versus monotherapy in nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: Results from the phase 2b TANDEM study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: With distinct mechanisms of action, the combination of tropifexor (TXR) and cenicriviroc (CVC) may provide an effective treatment for NASH. This randomized, multicenter, double-blind, phase 2b study assessed the safety and efficacy of TXR and CVC combination, compared with respective monotherapies. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients (N = 193) were randomized 1:1:1:1 to once-daily TXR 140 µg (TXR 140 ), CVC 150 mg (CVC), TXR 140 µg + CVC 150 mg (TXR 140 + CVC), or TXR 90 µg + CVC 150 mg (TXR 90 + CVC) for 48 weeks. The primary and secondary end points were safety and histological improvement, respectively. Rates of adverse events (AEs) were similar across treatment groups. Pruritus was the most frequently experienced AE, with highest incidence in the TXR 140 group (40.0%). In TXR and combination groups, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) decreased from baseline to 48 weeks (geometric mean change: -21%, TXR 140 ; -16%, TXR 140 + CVC; -13%, TXR 90 + CVC; and +17%, CVC). Reductions in body weight observed at week 24 (mean changes from baseline: TXR 140 , -2.5 kg; TXR 140 + CVC, -1.7 kg; TXR 90 + CVC, -1.0 kg; and CVC, -0.1 kg) were sustained to week 48. At least 1-point improvement in fibrosis stage/steatohepatitis resolution without worsening of fibrosis was observed in 32.3%/25.8%, 31.6%/15.8%, 29.7%/13.5%, and 32.5%/22.5% of patients in the TXR 140 , CVC, TXR 140 + CVC, and TXR 90 + CVC groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The safety profile of TXR + CVC combination was similar to respective monotherapies, with no new signals. TXR monotherapy showed sustained ALT and body weight decreases. No substantial incremental efficacy was observed with TXR + CVC combination on ALT, body weight, or in histological end points compared with monotherapy.

HCC EV ECG score: An extracellular vesicle-based protein assay for detection of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The sensitivity of current surveillance methods for detecting early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is suboptimal. Extracellular vesicles (EVs) are promising circulating biomarkers for early cancer detection. In this study, we aim to develop an HCC EV-based surface protein assay for early detection of HCC. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Tissue microarray was used to evaluate four potential HCC-associated protein markers. An HCC EV surface protein assay, composed of covalent chemistry-mediated HCC EV purification and real-time immuno-polymerase chain reaction readouts, was developed and optimized for quantifying subpopulations of EVs. An HCC EV ECG score, calculated from the readouts of three HCC EV subpopulations ( E pCAM + CD63 + , C D147 + CD63 + , and G PC3 + CD63 + HCC EVs), was established for detecting early-stage HCC. A phase 2 biomarker study was conducted to evaluate the performance of ECG score in a training cohort ( n  = 106) and an independent validation cohort ( n  = 72).Overall, 99.7% of tissue microarray stained positive for at least one of the four HCC-associated protein markers (EpCAM, CD147, GPC3, and ASGPR1) that were subsequently validated in HCC EVs. In the training cohort, HCC EV ECG score demonstrated an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.95 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.90-0.99) for distinguishing early-stage HCC from cirrhosis with a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 90%. The AUROCs of the HCC EV ECG score remained excellent in the validation cohort (0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.99) and in the subgroups by etiology (viral: 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90-1.00; nonviral: 0.94; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99). CONCLUSION: HCC EV ECG score demonstrated great potential for detecting early-stage HCC. It could augment current surveillance methods and improve patients' outcomes.