Clinician perspectives on clinical decision support systems in lung cancer: Implications for shared decision-making.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer treatment decisions are typically made among clinical experts in a multidisciplinary tumour board (MTB) based on clinical data and guidelines. The rise of artificial intelligence and cultural shifts towards patient autonomy are changing the nature of clinical decision-making towards personalized treatments. This can be supported by clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) that generate personalized treatment information as a basis for shared decision-making (SDM). Little is known about lung cancer patients' treatment decisions and the potential for SDM supported by CDSSs. The aim of this study is to understand to what extent SDM is done in current practice and what clinicians need to improve it. OBJECTIVE: To explore (1) the extent to which patient preferences are taken into consideration in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treatment decisions; (2) clinician perspectives on using CDSSs to support SDM. DESIGN: Mixed methods study consisting of a retrospective cohort study on patient deviation from MTB advice and reasons for deviation, qualitative interviews with lung cancer specialists and observations of MTB discussions and patient consultations. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: NSCLC patients (N = 257) treated at a single radiotherapy clinic and nine lung cancer specialists from six Dutch clinics. RESULTS: We found a 10.9% (n = 28) deviation rate from MTB advice; 50% (n = 14) were due to patient preference, of which 85.7% (n = 12) chose a less intensive treatment than MTB advice. Current MTB recommendations are based on clinician experience, guidelines and patients' performance status. Most specialists (n = 7) were receptive towards CDSSs but cited barriers, such as lack of trust, lack of validation studies and time. CDSSs were considered valuable during MTB discussions rather than in consultations. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer decisions are heavily influenced by clinical guidelines and experience, yet many patients prefer less intensive treatments. CDSSs can support SDM by presenting the harms and benefits of different treatment options rather than giving single treatment advice. External validation of CDSSs should be prioritized. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: This study did not involve patients or the public explicitly; however, the study design was informed by prior interviews with volunteers of a cancer patient advocacy group. The study objectives and data collection were supported by Dutch health care insurer CZ for a project titled 'My Best Treatment' that improves patient-centeredness and the lung cancer patient pathway in the Netherlands.

Stereotactic ablative body radiotherapy (SABR) combined with immunotherapy (L19-IL2) versus standard of care in stage IV NSCLC patients, ImmunoSABR: a multicentre, randomised controlled open-label phase II trial.

BACKGROUND: About 50% of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients have metastatic disease at initial diagnosis, which limits their treatment options and, consequently, the 5-year survival rate (15%). Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), either alone or in combination with chemotherapy, have become standard of care (SOC) for most good performance status patients. However, most patients will not obtain long-term benefit and new treatment strategies are therefore needed. We previously demonstrated clinical safety of the tumour-selective immunocytokine L19-IL2, consisting of the anti-ED-B scFv L19 antibody coupled to IL2, combined with stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR). METHODS: This investigator-initiated, multicentric, randomised controlled open-label phase II clinical trial will test the hypothesis that the combination of SABR and L19-IL2 increases progression free survival (PFS) in patients with limited metastatic NSCLC. One hundred twenty-six patients will be stratified according to their metastatic load (oligo-metastatic: ≤5 or poly-metastatic: 6 to 10) and randomised to the experimental-arm (E-arm) or the control-arm (C-arm). The C-arm will receive SOC, according to the local protocol. E-arm oligo-metastatic patients will receive SABR to all lesions followed by L19-IL2 therapy; radiotherapy for poly-metastatic patients consists of irradiation of one (symptomatic) to a maximum of 5 lesions (including ICI in both arms if this is the SOC). The accrual period will be 2.5-years, starting after the first centre is initiated and active. Primary endpoint is PFS at 1.5-years based on blinded radiological review, and secondary endpoints are overall survival, toxicity, quality of life and abscopal response. Associative biomarker studies, immune monitoring, CT-based radiomics, stool collection, iRECIST and tumour growth rate will be performed. DISCUSSION: The combination of SABR with or without ICI and the immunocytokine L19-IL2 will be tested as 1st, 2nd or 3rd line treatment in stage IV NSCLC patients in 14 centres located in 6 countries. This bimodal and trimodal treatment approach is based on the direct cytotoxic effect of radiotherapy, the tumour selective immunocytokine L19-IL2, the abscopal effect observed distant from the irradiated metastatic site(s) and the memory effect. The first results are expected end 2023. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ImmunoSABR Protocol Code: NL67629.068.18; EudraCT: 2018-002583-11; Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03705403; ISRCTN ID: ISRCTN49817477; Date of registration: 03-April-2019.

Development of an isotoxic decision support system integrating genetic markers of toxicity for the implantation of a rectum spacer.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies revealed that dose escalated radiotherapy for prostate cancer patients leads to higher tumor control probabilities (TCP) but also to higher rectal toxicities. An isotoxic model was developed to maximize the given dose while controlling the toxicity level. This was applied to analyze the effect of an implantable rectum spacer (IRS) and extended with a genetic test of normal tissue radio-sensitivity. A virtual IRS (V-IRS) was tested using this method. We hypothesized that the patients with increased risk of toxicity would benefit more from an IRS. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Sixteen localized prostate cancer patients implanted with an IRS were included in the study. Treatment planning was performed on computed tomography (CT) images before and after the placement of the IRS and with a V-IRS. The normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) was calculated using a QUANTEC reviewed model for Grade > =2 late rectal bleeding and the number of fractions of the plans were adjusted until the NTCP value was under 5%. The resulting treatment plans were used to calculate the TCP before and after placement of an IRS. This was extended by adding the effect of two published genetic single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP's) for late rectal bleeding. RESULTS: The median TCP resulting from the optimized plans in patients before the IRS was 75.1% [32.6-90.5%]. With IRS, the median TCP is significantly higher: 98.9% [80.8-99.9%] (p < .01). The difference in TCP between the V-IRS and the real IRS was 1.8% [0.0-18.0%]. Placing an IRS in the patients with SNP's improved the TCP from 49.0% [16.1-80.8%] and 48.9% [16.0-72.8%] to 96.3% [67.0-99.5%] and 90.1% [49.0-99.5%] (p < .01) respectively for either SNP. CONCLUSION: This study was a proof-of-concept for an isotoxic model with genetic biomarkers with a V-IRS as a multifactorial decision support system for the decision of a placement of an IRS.

MODEL-BASED COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF CONVENTIONAL AND INNOVATIVE CHEMO-RADIATION IN LUNG CANCER.

INTRODUCTION: Optimizing radiotherapy with or without chemotherapy through advanced imaging and accelerated radiation schemes shows promising results in locally advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study compared the cost-effectiveness of positron emission tomography-computed tomography based isotoxic accelerated sequential chemo-radiation (SRT2) and concurrent chemo-radiation with daily low-dose cisplatin (CRT2) with standard sequential (SRT1) and concurrent chemo-radiation (CRT1). METHODS: We used an externally validated mathematical model to simulate the four treatment strategies. The model was built using data from 200 NSCLC patients treated with curative sequential chemo-radiation. For concurrent strategies, data from a meta-analysis and a single study were included in the model. Costs, utilities, and resource use estimates were obtained from literature. Primary outcomes were the incremental cost-effectiveness and cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of each strategy. Scenario analyses were carried out to investigate the impact of uncertainty. RESULTS: Total undiscounted costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for SRT1, CRT1, SRT2, and CRT2 were EUR 17,288, EUR 18,756, EUR 19,072, EUR 17,360 and QALYs 1.10, 1.15, 1.40, and 1.40, respectively. Compared with SRT1, the ICURs were EUR 38,024/QALY for CRT1, EUR 6,249/QALY for SRT2, and EUR 346/QALY for CRT2. CRT2 was highly cost-effective compared with SRT1. Moreover, CRT2 was more effective and less costly than CRT1 and SRT2. Therefore, these strategies were dominated by CRT2. CONCLUSION: Optimized sequential and concurrent chemo-radiation strategies are more effective and cost-effective than the current conventional sequential and concurrent strategies. Concurrent chemo-radiation with a daily low dose cisplatin regimen is the most cost-effective treatment option for locally advanced inoperable NSCLC patients.

Quantification of CT-assessed radiation-induced lung damage in lung cancer patients treated with or without chemotherapy and cetuximab.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Prediction models for radiation-induced lung damage (RILD) are still unsatisfactory, with clinical toxicity endpoints that are difficult to quantify objectively. We therefore evaluated RILD more objectively, quantitatively and on a continuous scale measuring the lung tissue density changes per voxel. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) alone, sequential and concurrent chemo-RT with and without the addition of cetuximab were studied. Follow-up computed tomography (CT) scans were co-registered using deformable registration to baseline CT scans. CT density changes were correlated to the RT dose delivered in every part of the lungs. RESULTS: One hundred and seventeen lung cancer patients were included. Mean dose to tumor was 60 Gy (range 45-79.2 Gy). Dose response curves showed a linear increase in the dose region between 0 and 65 Gy having a slope (based on coefficients of the multilevel model) expressed as a lung density increase per dose of 0.86 (95% CI 0.73-0.99), 1.31 (95% CI 1.19-1.43), 1.39 (95% CI 1.28-1.50) and 2.07 (95% CI 1.93-2.21) for patients treated only with RT (N=19), sequential chemo-RT (N=30), concurrent chemo-RT (N=49), and concurrent chemo-RT with cetuximab (N=19), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: CT density changes allow quantitative assessment of lung damage after fractionated RT, giving complementary information to standard used clinical endpoints. Patients receiving cetuximab showed a significantly larger dose response compared with other treatments.

Modern clinical research: How rapid learning health care and cohort multiple randomised clinical trials complement traditional evidence based medicine.

BACKGROUND: Trials are vital in informing routine clinical care; however, current designs have major deficiencies. An overview of the various challenges that face modern clinical research and the methods that can be exploited to solve these challenges, in the context of personalised cancer treatment in the 21st century is provided. AIM: The purpose of this manuscript, without intending to be comprehensive, is to spark thought whilst presenting and discussing two important and complementary alternatives to traditional evidence-based medicine, specifically rapid learning health care and cohort multiple randomised controlled trial design. Rapid learning health care is an approach that proposes to extract and apply knowledge from routine clinical care data rather than exclusively depending on clinical trial evidence, (please watch the animation: http://youtu.be/ZDJFOxpwqEA). The cohort multiple randomised controlled trial design is a pragmatic method which has been proposed to help overcome the weaknesses of conventional randomised trials, taking advantage of the standardised follow-up approaches more and more used in routine patient care. This approach is particularly useful when the new intervention is a priori attractive for the patient (i.e. proton therapy, patient decision aids or expensive medications), when the outcomes are easily collected, and when there is no need of a placebo arm. DISCUSSION: Truly personalised cancer treatment is the goal in modern radiotherapy. However, personalised cancer treatment is also an immense challenge. The vast variety of both cancer patients and treatment options makes it extremely difficult to determine which decisions are optimal for the individual patient. Nevertheless, rapid learning health care and cohort multiple randomised controlled trial design are two approaches (among others) that can help meet this challenge.

Prognostic value of metabolic metrics extracted from baseline positron emission tomography images in non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Maximum, mean and peak SUV of primary tumor at baseline FDG-PET scans, have often been found predictive for overall survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. In this study we further investigated the prognostic power of advanced metabolic metrics derived from intensity volume histograms (IVH) extracted from PET imaging. METHODS: A cohort of 220 NSCLC patients (mean age, 66.6 years; 149 men, 71 women), stages I-IIIB, treated with radiotherapy with curative intent were included (NCT00522639). Each patient underwent standardized pre-treatment CT-PET imaging. Primary GTV was delineated by an experienced radiation oncologist on CT-PET images. Common PET descriptors such as maximum, mean and peak SUV, and metabolic tumor volume (MTV) were quantified. Advanced descriptors of metabolic activity were quantified by IVH. These comprised five groups of features: absolute and relative volume above relative intensity threshold (AVRI and RVRI), absolute and relative volume above absolute intensity threshold (AVAI and RVAI), and absolute intensity above relative volume threshold (AIRV). MTV was derived from the IVH curves for volumes with SUV above 2.5, 3 and 4, and of 40% and 50% maximum SUV. Univariable analysis using Cox Proportional Hazard Regression was performed for overall survival assessment. RESULTS: Relative volume above higher SUV (80%) was an independent predictor of OS (p = 0.05). None of the possible surrogates for MTV based on volumes above SUV of 3, 40% and 50% of maximum SUV showed significant associations with OS [p (AVAI3) = 0.10, p (AVAI4) = 0.22, p (AVRI40%) = 0.15, p (AVRI50%) = 0.17]. Maximum and peak SUV (r = 0.99) revealed no prognostic value for OS [p (maximum SUV) = 0.20, p (peak SUV) = 0.22]. CONCLUSIONS: New methods using more advanced imaging features extracted from PET were analyzed. Best prognostic value for OS of NSCLC patients was found for relative portions of the tumor above higher uptakes (80% SUV).

Comparing Prognostic Factors of Cancers Identified by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Human Readers in Breast Cancer Screening.

Invasiveness status, histological grade, lymph node stage, and tumour size are important prognostic factors for breast cancer survival. This evaluation aims to compare these features for cancers detected by AI and human readers using digital mammography. Women diagnosed with breast cancer between 2009 and 2019 from three UK double-reading sites were included in this retrospective cohort evaluation. Differences in prognostic features of cancers detected by AI and the first human reader (R1) were assessed using chi-square tests, with significance at p < 0.05. From 1718 screen-detected cancers (SDCs) and 293 interval cancers (ICs), AI flagged 85.9% and 31.7%, respectively. R1 detected 90.8% of SDCs and 7.2% of ICs. Of the screen-detected cancers detected by the AI, 82.5% had an invasive component, compared to 81.1% for R1 (p-0.374). For the ICs, this was 91.5% and 93.8% for AI and R1, respectively (p = 0.829). For the invasive tumours, no differences were found for histological grade, tumour size, or lymph node stage. The AI detected more ICs. In summary, no differences in prognostic factors were found comparing SDC and ICs identified by AI or human readers. These findings support a potential role for AI in the double-reading workflow.

Prospective implementation of AI-assisted screen reading to improve early detection of breast cancer.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to improve breast cancer screening; however, prospective evidence of the safe implementation of AI into real clinical practice is limited. A commercially available AI system was implemented as an additional reader to standard double reading to flag cases for further arbitration review among screened women. Performance was assessed prospectively in three phases: a single-center pilot rollout, a wider multicenter pilot rollout and a full live rollout. The results showed that, compared to double reading, implementing the AI-assisted additional-reader process could achieve 0.7-1.6 additional cancer detection per 1,000 cases, with 0.16-0.30% additional recalls, 0-0.23% unnecessary recalls and a 0.1-1.9% increase in positive predictive value (PPV) after 7-11% additional human reads of AI-flagged cases (equating to 4-6% additional overall reading workload). The majority of cancerous cases detected by the AI-assisted additional-reader process were invasive (83.3%) and small-sized (≤10 mm, 47.0%). This evaluation suggests that using AI as an additional reader can improve the early detection of breast cancer with relevant prognostic features, with minimal to no unnecessary recalls. Although the AI-assisted additional-reader workflow requires additional reads, the higher PPV suggests that it can increase screening effectiveness.

Improving shared decision making for lung cancer treatment by developing and validating an open-source web based patient decision aid for stage I-II non-small cell lung cancer.

The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a proof-of-concept open-source individualized Patient Decision Aid (iPDA) with a group of patients, physicians, and computer scientists. The iPDA was developed based on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS). A previously published questionnaire was adapted and used to test the user-friendliness and content of the iPDA. The questionnaire contained 40 multiple-choice questions, and answers were given on a 5-point Likert Scale (1-5) ranging from "strongly disagree" to "strongly agree." In addition to the questionnaire, semi-structured interviews were conducted with patients. We performed a descriptive analysis of the responses. The iPDA was evaluated by 28 computer scientists, 21 physicians, and 13 patients. The results demonstrate that the iPDA was found valuable by 92% (patients), 96% (computer scientists), and 86% (physicians), while the treatment information was judged useful by 92%, 96%, and 95%, respectively. Additionally, the tool was thought to be motivating for patients to actively engage in their treatment by 92%, 93%, and 91% of the above respondents groups. More multimedia components and less text were suggested by the respondents as ways to improve the tool and user interface. In conclusion, we successfully developed and tested an iPDA for patients with stage I-II Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC).

Artificial Intelligence as Supporting Reader in Breast Screening: A Novel Workflow to Preserve Quality and Reduce Workload.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a new strategy for using artificial intelligence (AI) as supporting reader for the detection of breast cancer in mammography-based double reading screening practice. METHODS: Large-scale multi-site, multi-vendor data were used to retrospectively evaluate a new paradigm of AI-supported reading. Here, the AI served as the second reader only if it agrees with the recall/no-recall decision of the first human reader. Otherwise, a second human reader made an assessment followed by the standard clinical workflow. The data included 280 594 cases from 180 542 female participants screened for breast cancer at seven screening sites in two countries and using equipment from four hardware vendors. The statistical analysis included non-inferiority and superiority testing of cancer screening performance and evaluation of the reduction in workload, measured as arbitration rate and number of cases requiring second human reading. RESULTS: Artificial intelligence as a supporting reader was found to be superior or noninferior on all screening metrics compared with human double reading while reducing the number of cases requiring second human reading by up to 87% (245 395/280 594). Compared with AI as an independent reader, the number of cases referred to arbitration was reduced from 13% (35 199/280 594) to 2% (5056/280 594). CONCLUSION: The simulation indicates that the proposed workflow retains screening performance of human double reading while substantially reducing the workload. Further research should study the impact on the second human reader because they would only assess cases in which the AI prediction and first human reader disagree.

Open Source Repository and Online Calculator of Prediction Models for Diagnosis and Prognosis in Oncology.

(1) Background: The main aim was to develop a prototype application that would serve as an open-source repository for a curated subset of predictive and prognostic models regarding oncology, and provide a user-friendly interface for the included models to allow online calculation. The focus of the application is on providing physicians and health professionals with patient-specific information regarding treatment plans, survival rates, and side effects for different expected treatments. (2) Methods: The primarily used models were the ones developed by our research group in the past. This selection was completed by a number of models, addressing the same cancer types but focusing on other outcomes that were selected based on a literature search in PubMed and Medline databases. All selected models were publicly available and had been validated TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of studies on prediction models for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis) type 3 or 2b. (3) Results: The open source repository currently incorporates 18 models from different research groups, evaluated on datasets from different countries. Model types included logistic regression, Cox regression, and recursive partition analysis (decision trees). (4) Conclusions: An application was developed to enable physicians to complement their clinical judgment with user-friendly patient-specific predictions using models that have received internal/external validation. Additionally, this platform enables researchers to display their work, enhancing the use and exposure of their models.

Lessons From a Systematic Literature Search on Diagnostic DNA Methylation Biomarkers for Colorectal Cancer: How to Increase Research Value and Decrease Research Waste?

OBJECTIVES: To improve colorectal cancer (CRC) survival and lower incidence rates, colonoscopy and/or fecal immunochemical test screening are widely implemented. Although candidate DNA methylation biomarkers have been published to improve or complement the fecal immunochemical test, clinical translation is limited. We describe technical and methodological problems encountered after a systematic literature search and provide recommendations to increase (clinical) value and decrease research waste in biomarker research. In addition, we present current evidence for diagnostic CRC DNA methylation biomarkers. METHODS: A systematic literature search identified 331 diagnostic DNA methylation marker studies published before November 2020 in PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar. For 136 bodily fluid studies, extended data extraction was performed. STARD criteria and level of evidence were registered to assess reporting quality and strength for clinical translation. RESULTS: Our systematic literature search revealed multiple issues that hamper the development of DNA methylation biomarkers for CRC diagnosis, including methodological and technical heterogeneity and lack of validation or clinical translation. For example, clinical translation and independent validation were limited, with 100 of 434 markers (23%) studied in bodily fluids, 3 of 434 markers (0.7%) translated into clinical tests, and independent validation for 92 of 411 tissue markers (22%) and 59 of 100 bodily fluids markers (59%). DISCUSSION: This systematic literature search revealed that major requirements to develop clinically relevant diagnostic CRC DNA methylation markers are often lacking. To avoid the resulting research waste, clinical needs, intended biomarker use, and independent validation should be better considered before study design. In addition, improved reporting quality would facilitate meta-analysis, thereby increasing the level of evidence and enabling clinical translation.

Knowledge Graphs for COVID-19: An Exploratory Review of the Current Landscape.

BACKGROUND: Searching through the COVID-19 research literature to gain actionable clinical insight is a formidable task, even for experts. The usefulness of this corpus in terms of improving patient care is tied to the ability to see the big picture that emerges when the studies are seen in conjunction rather than in isolation. When the answer to a search query requires linking together multiple pieces of information across documents, simple keyword searches are insufficient. To answer such complex information needs, an innovative artificial intelligence (AI) technology named a knowledge graph (KG) could prove to be effective. METHODS: We conducted an exploratory literature review of KG applications in the context of COVID-19. The search term used was "covid-19 knowledge graph". In addition to PubMed, the first five pages of search results for Google Scholar and Google were considered for inclusion. Google Scholar was used to include non-peer-reviewed or non-indexed articles such as pre-prints and conference proceedings. Google was used to identify companies or consortiums active in this domain that have not published any literature, peer-reviewed or otherwise. RESULTS: Our search yielded 34 results on PubMed and 50 results each on Google and Google Scholar. We found KGs being used for facilitating literature search, drug repurposing, clinical trial mapping, and risk factor analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our synopses of these works make a compelling case for the utility of this nascent field of research.

Modeling-Based Decision Support System for Radical Prostatectomy Versus External Beam Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer Incorporating an In Silico Clinical Trial and a Cost-Utility Study.

The aim of this study is to build a decision support system (DSS) to select radical prostatectomy (RP) or external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) for low- to intermediate-risk prostate cancer patients. We used an individual state-transition model based on predictive models for estimating tumor control and toxicity probabilities. We performed analyses on a synthetically generated dataset of 1000 patients with realistic clinical parameters, externally validated by comparison to randomized clinical trials, and set up an in silico clinical trial for elderly patients. We assessed the cost-effectiveness (CE) of the DSS for treatment selection by comparing it to randomized treatment allotment. Using the DSS, 47.8% of synthetic patients were selected for RP and 52.2% for EBRT. During validation, differences with the simulations of late toxicity and biochemical failure never exceeded 2%. The in silico trial showed that for elderly patients, toxicity has more influence on the decision than TCP, and the predicted QoL depends on the initial erectile function. The DSS is estimated to result in cost savings (EUR 323 (95% CI: EUR 213-433)) and more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs; 0.11 years, 95% CI: 0.00-0.22) than randomized treatment selection.

Can predicting COVID-19 mortality in a European cohort using only demographic and comorbidity data surpass age-based prediction: An externally validated study.

OBJECTIVE: To establish whether one can build a mortality prediction model for COVID-19 patients based solely on demographics and comorbidity data that outperforms age alone. Such a model could be a precursor to implementing smart lockdowns and vaccine distribution strategies. METHODS: The training cohort comprised 2337 COVID-19 inpatients from nine hospitals in The Netherlands. The clinical outcome was death within 21 days of being discharged. The features were derived from electronic health records collected during admission. Three feature selection methods were used: LASSO, univariate using a novel metric, and pairwise (age being half of each pair). 478 patients from Belgium were used to test the model. All modeling attempts were compared against an age-only model. RESULTS: In the training cohort, the mortality group's median age was 77 years (interquartile range = 70-83), higher than the non-mortality group (median = 65, IQR = 55-75). The incidence of former/active smokers, male gender, hypertension, diabetes, dementia, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic cardiac disease, chronic neurological disease, and chronic kidney disease was higher in the mortality group. All stated differences were statistically significant after Bonferroni correction. LASSO selected eight features, novel univariate chose five, and pairwise chose none. No model was able to surpass an age-only model in the external validation set, where age had an AUC of 0.85 and a balanced accuracy of 0.77. CONCLUSION: When applied to an external validation set, we found that an age-only mortality model outperformed all modeling attempts (curated on www.covid19risk.ai) using three feature selection methods on 22 demographic and comorbid features.

Prediction of residual metabolic activity after treatment in NSCLC patients.

PURPOSE: Metabolic response assessment is often used as a surrogate of local failure and survival. Early identification of patients with residual metabolic activity is essential as this enables selection of patients who could potentially benefit from additional therapy. We report on the development of a pre-treatment prediction model for metabolic response using patient, tumor and treatment factors. METHODS: One hundred and one patients with inoperable NSCLC (stage I-IV), treated with 3D conformal radical (chemo)-radiotherapy were retrospectively included in this study. All patients received a pre and post-radiotherapy fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography-computed tomography FDG-PET-CT scan. The electronic medical record system and the medical patient charts were reviewed to obtain demographic, clinical, tumor and treatment data. Primary outcome measure was examined using a metabolic response assessment on a post-radiotherapy FDG-PET-CT scan. Radiotherapy was delivered in fractions of 1.8 Gy, twice a day, with a median prescribed dose of 60 Gy. RESULTS: Overall survival was worse in patients with residual metabolic active areas compared with the patients with a complete metabolic response (p=0.0001). In univariate analysis, three variables were significantly associated with residual disease: larger primary gross tumor volume (GTV(primary), p=0.002), higher pre-treatment maximum standardized uptake value (SUV(max), p=0.0005) in the primary tumor and shorter overall treatment time (OTT, p=0.046). A multivariate model including GTV(primary), SUV(max), equivalent radiation dose at 2 Gy corrected for time (EQD(2, T)) and OTT yielded an area under the curve assessed by the leave-one-out cross validation of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65-0.76). CONCLUSION: Our results confirmed the validity of metabolic response assessment as a surrogate of survival. We developed a multivariate model that is able to identify patients at risk of residual disease. These patients may benefit from an individualized and more adequate therapeutic approach, thereby improving local control and survival.

Lymphocyte-Sparing Radiotherapy: The Rationale for Protecting Lymphocyte-rich Organs When Combining Radiotherapy With Immunotherapy.

There is now strong clinical and preclinical evidence that lymphocytes, for example, CD8+ T cells, are key effectors of immunotherapy and that irradiation of large blood vessels, the heart, and lymphoid organs (including nodes, spleen, bones containing bone marrow, and thymus in children) causes transient or persistent lymphopenia. Furthermore, there is extensive clinical evidence, across multiple cancer sites and treatment modalities, that lymphopenia correlates strongly with decreased overall survival. At the moment, we lack quantitative evidence to establish the relationship between dose-volume and dose-rate to critical normal structures and lymphopenia. Therefore, we propose that data should be systematically recorded to characterise a possible quantitative relationship. This might enable us to improve the efficacy of radiotherapy and develop strategies to predict and prevent treatment-related lymphopenia. In anticipation of more quantitative data, we recommend the application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable to lymphocyte-rich regions for radiotherapy treatment planning to reduce the radiation doses to these structures, thus moving toward "Lymphocyte-Sparing Radiotherapy."

Radiomics: from qualitative to quantitative imaging.

Historically, medical imaging has been a qualitative or semi-quantitative modality. It is difficult to quantify what can be seen in an image, and to turn it into valuable predictive outcomes. As a result of advances in both computational hardware and machine learning algorithms, computers are making great strides in obtaining quantitative information from imaging and correlating it with outcomes. Radiomics, in its two forms "handcrafted and deep," is an emerging field that translates medical images into quantitative data to yield biological information and enable radiologic phenotypic profiling for diagnosis, theragnosis, decision support, and monitoring. Handcrafted radiomics is a multistage process in which features based on shape, pixel intensities, and texture are extracted from radiographs. Within this review, we describe the steps: starting with quantitative imaging data, how it can be extracted, how to correlate it with clinical and biological outcomes, resulting in models that can be used to make predictions, such as survival, or for detection and classification used in diagnostics. The application of deep learning, the second arm of radiomics, and its place in the radiomics workflow is discussed, along with its advantages and disadvantages. To better illustrate the technologies being used, we provide real-world clinical applications of radiomics in oncology, showcasing research on the applications of radiomics, as well as covering its limitations and its future direction.

Challenges and caveats of a multi-center retrospective radiomics study: an example of early treatment response assessment for NSCLC patients using FDG-PET/CT radiomics.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models based on individual patient characteristics can improve treatment decisions and outcome in the future. In many (radiomic) studies, small size and heterogeneity of datasets is a challenge that often limits performance and potential clinical applicability of these models. The current study is example of a retrospective multi-centric study with challenges and caveats. To highlight common issues and emphasize potential pitfalls, we aimed for an extensive analysis of these multi-center pre-treatment datasets, with an additional 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) scan acquired during treatment. METHODS: The dataset consisted of 138 stage II-IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients from four different cohorts acquired from three different institutes. The differences between the cohorts were compared in terms of clinical characteristics and using the so-called 'cohort differences model' approach. Moreover, the potential prognostic performances for overall survival of radiomic features extracted from CT or FDG-PET, or relative or absolute differences between the scans at the two time points, were assessed using the LASSO regression method. Furthermore, the performances of five different classifiers were evaluated for all image sets. RESULTS: The individual cohorts substantially differed in terms of patient characteristics. Moreover, the cohort differences model indicated statistically significant differences between the cohorts. Neither LASSO nor any of the tested classifiers resulted in a clinical relevant prognostic model that could be validated on the available datasets. CONCLUSION: The results imply that the study might have been influenced by a limited sample size, heterogeneous patient characteristics, and inconsistent imaging parameters. No prognostic performance of FDG-PET or CT based radiomics models can be reported. This study highlights the necessity of extensive evaluations of cohorts and of validation datasets, especially in retrospective multi-centric datasets.