Quantification of forest carbon flux and stock uncertainties under climate change and their use in regionally explicit decision making: Case study in Finland.

Uncertainties are essential, yet often neglected, information for evaluating the reliability in forest carbon balance projections used in national and regional policy planning. We analysed uncertainties in the forest net biome exchange (NBE) and carbon stocks under multiple management and climate scenarios with a process-based ecosystem model. Sampled forest initial state values, model parameters, harvest levels and global climate models (GCMs) served as inputs in Monte Carlo simulations, which covered forests of the 18 regions of mainland Finland over the period 2015-2050. Under individual scenarios, the results revealed time- and region-dependent variability in the magnitude of uncertainty and mean values of the NBE projections. The main sources of uncertainty varied with time, by region and by the amount of harvested wood. Combinations of uncertainties in the representative concentration pathways scenarios, GCMs, forest initial values and model parameters were the main sources of uncertainty at the beginning, while the harvest scenarios dominated by the end of the simulation period, combined with GCMs and climate scenarios especially in the north. Our regionally explicit uncertainty analysis was found a useful approach to reveal the variability in the regional potentials to reach a policy related, future target level of NBE, which is important information when planning realistic and regionally fair national policy actions.

Potential of continuous cover forestry on drained peatlands to increase the carbon sink in Finland.

Land-based mitigation measures are needed to achieve climate targets. One option is the mitigation of currently high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of nutrient-rich drained peatland forest soils. Continuous cover forestry (CCF) has been proposed as a measure to manage this GHG emission source; however, its emission reduction potential and impact on timber production at regional and national scales have not been quantified. To quantify the potential emission reduction, we simulated four management scenarios for Finnish forests: (i) The replacement of clear-cutting by selection harvesting on nutrient-rich drained peatlands (CCF) and (ii) the current forest management regime (BAU), and both at two harvest levels, namely (i) the mean annual harvesting (2016-2018) and (ii) the maximum sustainable yield. The simulations were conducted at the stand scale with a forest simulator (MELA) coupled with a hydrological model (SpaFHy), soil C model (Yasso07) and empirical GHG exchange models. Simulations showed that the management scenario that avoided clear-cutting on nutrient-rich drained peatlands (i.e. CCF) produced approximately 1 Tg CO2 eq. higher carbon sinks annually compared with BAU at equal harvest level for Finland. This emission reduction can be attributed to the maintenance of a higher biomass sink and to the mitigation of soil emissions from nutrient-rich drained peatland sites.

Soil GHG dynamics after water level rise - Impacts of selection harvesting in peatland forests.

Managed boreal peatlands are widespread and economically important, but they are a large source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Peatland GHG emissions are related to soil water-table level (WT), which controls the vertical distribution of aerobic and anaerobic processes and, consequently, sinks and sources of GHGs in soils. On forested peatlands, selection harvesting reduces stand evapotranspiration and it has been suggested that the resulting WT rise decreases soil net emissions, while the tree growth is maintained. We monitored soil concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O and O2 by depth down to 80 cm, and CO2 and CH4 fluxes from soil in two nutrient-rich Norway spruce dominated peatlands in Southern Finland to examine the responses of soil GHG dynamics to WT rise. Selection harvesting raised WT by 14 cm on both sites, on average, mean WTs of the monitoring period being 73 cm for unharvested control and 59 cm for selection harvest. All soil gas concentrations were associated with proximity to WT. Both CH4 and CO2 showed remarkable vertical concentration gradients, with high values in the deepest layer, likely due to slow gas transfer in wet peat. CH4 was efficiently consumed in peat layers near and above WT where it reached sub-atmospheric concentrations, indicating sustained oxidation of CH4 from both atmospheric and deeper soil origins also after harvesting. Based on soil gas concentration data, surface peat (top 25/30 cm layer) contributed most to the soil-atmosphere CO2 fluxes and harvesting slightly increased the CO2 source in deeper soil (below 45/50 cm), which could explain the small CO2 flux differences between treatments. N2O production occurred above WT, and it was unaffected by harvesting. Overall, the WT rise obtained with selection harvesting was not sufficient to reduce soil GHG emissions, but additional hydrological regulation would have been needed.

Role of land cover in Finland's greenhouse gas emissions.

We present regionally aggregated emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from five land cover categories in Finland: artificial surfaces, arable land, forest, waterbodies, and wetlands. Carbon (C) sequestration to managed forests and unmanaged wetlands was also assessed. Models FRES and ALas were applied for emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O) from artificial surfaces and agriculture, and PREBAS for forest growth and C balance. Empirical emission coefficients were used to estimate emissions from drained forested peatland (CH4, N2O), cropland (CO2), waterbodies (CH4, CO2), peat production sites and undrained mires (CH4, CO2, N2O). We calculated gross emissions of 147.2 ± 6.8 TgCO2eq yr-1 for 18 administrative units covering mainland Finland, using data representative of the period 2017-2025. Emissions from energy production, industrial processes, road traffic and other sources in artificial surfaces amounted to 45.7 ± 2.0 TgCO2eq yr-1. The loss of C in forest harvesting was the largest emission source in the LULUCF sector, in total 59.8 ± 3.3 TgCO2eq yr-1. Emissions from domestic livestock production, field cultivation and organic soils added up to 12.2 ± 3.5 TgCO2eq yr-1 from arable land. Rivers and lakes (13.4 ± 1.9 TgCO2eq yr-1) as well as undrained mires and peat production sites (14.7 ± 1.8 TgCO2eq yr-1) increased the total GHG fluxes. The C sequestration from the atmosphere was 93.2 ± 13.7 TgCO2eq yr-1. with the main sink in forest on mineral soil (79.9 ± 12.2 TgCO2eq yr-1). All sinks compensated 63% of total emissions and thus the net emissions were 53.9 ± 15.3 TgCO2eq yr-1, or a net GHG flux per capita of 9.8 MgCO2eq yr-1.

Sources and sinks of greenhouse gases in the landscape: Approach for spatially explicit estimates.

Climate change mitigation is a global response that requires actions at the local level. Quantifying local sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHG) facilitate evaluating mitigation options. We present an approach to collate spatially explicit estimated fluxes of GHGs (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) for main land use sectors in the landscape, to aggregate, and to calculate the net emissions of an entire region. Our procedure was developed and tested in a large river basin in Finland, providing information from intensively studied eLTER research sites. To evaluate the full GHG balance, fluxes from natural ecosystems (lakes, rivers, and undrained mires) were included together with fluxes from anthropogenic activities, agriculture and forestry. We quantified the fluxes based on calculations with an anthropogenic emissions model (FRES) and a forest growth and carbon balance model (PREBAS), as well as on emission coefficients from the literature regarding emissions from lakes, rivers, undrained mires, peat extraction sites and cropland. Spatial data sources included CORINE land use data, soil map, lake and river shorelines, national forest inventory data, and statistical data on anthropogenic activities. Emission uncertainties were evaluated with Monte Carlo simulations. Artificial surfaces were the most emission intensive land-cover class. Lakes and rivers were about as emission intensive as arable land. Forests were the dominant land cover in the region (66%), and the C sink of the forests decreased the total emissions of the region by 72%. The region's net emissions amounted to 4.37 ± 1.43 Tg CO2-eq yr-1, corresponding to a net emission intensity 0.16 Gg CO2-eq km-2 yr-1, and estimated per capita net emissions of 5.6 Mg CO2-eq yr-1. Our landscape approach opens opportunities to examine the sensitivities of important GHG fluxes to changes in land use and climate, management actions, and mitigation of anthropogenic emissions.