A machine-learning method for biobank-scale genetic prediction of blood group antigens.

A key element for successful blood transfusion is compatibility of the patient and donor red blood cell (RBC) antigens. Precise antigen matching reduces the risk for immunization and other adverse transfusion outcomes. RBC antigens are encoded by specific genes, which allows developing computational methods for determining antigens from genomic data. We describe here a classification method for determining RBC antigens from genotyping array data. Random forest models for 39 RBC antigens in 14 blood group systems and for human platelet antigen (HPA)-1 were trained and tested using genotype and RBC antigen and HPA-1 typing data available for 1,192 blood donors in the Finnish Blood Service Biobank. The algorithm and models were further evaluated using a validation cohort of 111,667 Danish blood donors. In the Finnish test data set, the median (interquartile range [IQR]) balanced accuracy for 39 models was 99.9 (98.9-100)%. We were able to replicate 34 out of 39 Finnish models in the Danish cohort and the median (IQR) balanced accuracy for classifications was 97.1 (90.1-99.4)%. When applying models trained with the Danish cohort, the median (IQR) balanced accuracy for the 40 Danish models in the Danish test data set was 99.3 (95.1-99.8)%. The RBC antigen and HPA-1 prediction models demonstrated high overall accuracies suitable for probabilistic determination of blood groups and HPA-1 at biobank-scale. Furthermore, population-specific training cohort increased the accuracies of the models. This stand-alone and freely available method is applicable for research and screening for antigen-negative blood donors.

Longitudinal metabolite and protein trajectories prior to diabetes mellitus diagnosis in Danish blood donors: a nested case-control study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Metabolic risk factors and plasma biomarkers for diabetes have previously been shown to change prior to a clinical diabetes diagnosis. However, these markers only cover a small subset of molecular biomarkers linked to the disease. In this study, we aimed to profile a more comprehensive set of molecular biomarkers and explore their temporal association with incident diabetes. METHODS: We performed a targeted analysis of 54 proteins and 171 metabolites and lipoprotein particles measured in three sequential samples spanning up to 11 years of follow-up in 324 individuals with incident diabetes and 359 individuals without diabetes in the Danish Blood Donor Study (DBDS) matched for sex and birth year distribution. We used linear mixed-effects models to identify temporal changes before a diabetes diagnosis, either for any incident diabetes diagnosis or for type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus diagnoses specifically. We further performed linear and non-linear feature selection, adding 28 polygenic risk scores to the biomarker pool. We tested the time-to-event prediction gain of the biomarkers with the highest variable importance, compared with selected clinical covariates and plasma glucose. RESULTS: We identified two proteins and 16 metabolites and lipoprotein particles whose levels changed temporally before diabetes diagnosis and for which the estimated marginal means were significant after FDR adjustment. Sixteen of these have not previously been described. Additionally, 75 biomarkers were consistently higher or lower in the years before a diabetes diagnosis. We identified a single temporal biomarker for type 1 diabetes, IL-17A/F, a cytokine that is associated with multiple other autoimmune diseases. Inclusion of 12 biomarkers improved the 10-year prediction of a diabetes diagnosis (i.e. the area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.79 to 0.84), compared with clinical information and plasma glucose alone. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Systemic molecular changes manifest in plasma several years before a diabetes diagnosis. A particular subset of biomarkers shows distinct, time-dependent patterns, offering potential as predictive markers for diabetes onset. Notably, these biomarkers show shared and distinct patterns between type 1 diabetes and type 2 diabetes. After independent replication, our findings may be used to develop new clinical prediction models.

Genetics may affect the risk of undergoing surgery for rhizarthrosis.

Osteoarthritis is a prevalent and severe disease. Involvement of the trapeziometacarpal joint is common and can lead to both pain and disability. Genetics are known to affect the risk of osteoarthritis, but it remains unclear how genetics affect disease trajectories. In this study, we investigated whether the genetic associations of trapeziometacarpal osteoarthritis (rhizarthrosis) vary with the need for surgical treatment. The study was conducted as a case-control genome-wide association study using individuals from the Copenhagen Hospital Biobank pain and degenerative musculoskeletal disease study and the Danish Blood Donor Study (N = 208,342). We identified patients diagnosed with rhizarthrosis and grouped them by treatment status, resulting in two case groups: surgical (N = 1083) and nonsurgical (N = 1888). The case groups were tested against osteoarthritis-free controls in two genome-wide association studies. We then compared variants suggestive of association (p < 10-6) in either of these analyses directly between the treatment groups (surgical vs. nonsurgical rhizarthrosis). We identified 10 variants suggestive of association with either surgical (seven variants) or nonsurgical (three variants) rhizarthrosis. None of the variants reached nominal significance in the opposite treatment group (p ≥ 0.14), and all 10 variants were significantly different between the treatment groups at a false discovery rate of 5%. These results suggest possible differences in the genetic associations of rhizarthrosis depending on surgical treatment. Clinical significance: Uncovering genetic differences between clinically distinct patient groups can reveal biological determinants of disease trajectories.

An assessment of the value of deep neural networks in genetic risk prediction for surgically relevant outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Postoperative complications affect up to 15% of surgical patients constituting a major part of the overall disease burden in a modern healthcare system. While several surgical risk calculators have been developed, none have so far been shown to decrease the associated mortality and morbidity. Combining deep neural networks and genomics with the already established clinical predictors may hold promise for improvement. METHODS: The UK Biobank was utilized to build linear and deep learning models for the prediction of surgery relevant outcomes. An initial GWAS for the relevant outcomes was initially conducted to select the Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms for inclusion in the models. Model performance was assessed with Receiver Operator Characteristics of the Area Under the Curve and optimum precision and recall. Feature importance was assessed with SHapley Additive exPlanations. RESULTS: Models were generated for atrial fibrillation, venous thromboembolism and pneumonia as genetics only, clinical features only and a combined model. For venous thromboembolism, the ROC-AUCs were 60.1% [59.6%-60.4%], 63.4% [63.2%-63.4%] and 66.6% [66.2%-66.9%] for the linear models and 51.5% [49.4%-53.4%], 63.2% [61.2%-65.0%] and 62.6% [60.7%-64.5%] for the deep learning SNP, clinical and combined models, respectively. For atrial fibrillation, the ROC-AUCs were 60.3% [60.0%-60.4%], 78.7% [78.7%-78.7%] and 80.0% [79.9%-80.0%] for the linear models and 59.4% [58.2%-60.9%], 78.8% [77.8%-79.8%] and 79.8% [78.8%-80.9%] for the deep learning SNP, clinical and combined models, respectively. For pneumonia, the ROC-AUCs were 50.1% [49.6%-50.6%], 69.2% [69.1%-69.2%] and 68.4% [68.0%-68.5%] for the linear models and 51.0% [49.7%-52.4%], 69.7% [.5%-70.8%] and 69.7% [68.6%-70.8%] for the deep learning SNP, clinical and combined models, respectively. CONCLUSION: In this report we presented linear and deep learning predictive models for surgery relevant outcomes. Overall, predictability was similar between linear and deep learning models and inclusion of genetics seemed to improve accuracy.

Validity of the Systemizer Profile Questionnaire: A New Tool to Identify Cognitive, Mentalizing, Sensory, Social, and Systemizing Abilities in Adults with Autism-Spectrum-Disorders With and Without Comorbid ADHD.

PURPOSE: Systemizer Profile Questionnaire (SPQ), which has not been used before, investigates difficulties in mentalisation, sensory- and/or social sensitivity and social cognition (MSSSC) in subjects with Autism-Spectrum-Disorders (ASD) with and without Attention-Deficit-Hyperactivity-Disorder (ADHD). The aim of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the SPQ domains, and to assess the predictive validity of the SPQ against the Ritvo Autism Asperger Diagnostic Scale (RAADS). METHODS: Three-hundred-fifty-four study subjects with ICD-10 verified ASD confirmed by RAADS and 354 controls matched on age group and gender were recruited and evaluated systematically with SPQ, standardized questions about demographic and clinical data. Hypothesized SPQ subscales formed from 85 items were evaluated using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Resulting revised sub-scales were confirmed using item response theory (IRT) and the predictive validity of the SPQ scores was evaluated using RAADS scores above 64 as the standard. RESULTS: Twenty-two of the original 85 items were removed, resulting in an instrument with 63 items across nine psychometrically valid domains. These domains had high sensitivity (range: 0.64 to 0.84), and high specificity (range: 0.73 to 0.90). Positive predictive values (range: 0.76 to 0.89) and negative predictive values (range: 0.69 to 0.90) were also high. For the total SPQ score the sensitivity was 0.95, the specificity was 0.87, the positive predictive value was 0.88 and the negative predictive value was 0.95. CONCLUSION: SPQ domains are valid descriptions/profiles of MSSSC given that ASD is confirmed by RAADS, though irrelevant if not, as SPQ is not a diagnostic instrument.

Genome-wide association study reveals a locus in ADARB2 for complete freedom from headache in Danish Blood Donors.

Headache disorders are the most common disorders of the nervous system. The lifetime prevalence of headache disorders show that some individuals never experience headache. The etiology of complete freedom from headache is not known. To assess genetic variants associated with complete freedom from headache, we performed a genome-wide association study of individuals who have never experienced a headache. We included 63,992 individuals (2,998 individuals with complete freedom from headache and 60,994 controls) from the Danish Blood Donor Study Genomic Cohort. Participants were included in two rounds, from 2015 to 2018 and in 2020. We discovered a genome-wide significant association, with the lead variant rs7904615[G] in ADARB2 (EAF = 27%, OR = 1.20 [1.13-1.27], p = 3.92 × 10-9). The genomic locus was replicated in a non-overlapping cohort of 13,032 individuals (539 individuals with complete freedom from headache and 12,493 controls) from the Danish Blood Donor Study Genomic Cohort (p < 0.05, two-sided). Participants for the replication were included from 2015 to 2020. In conclusion, we show that complete freedom from headache has a genetic component, and we suggest that ADARB2 is involved in complete freedom from headache. The genomic locus was specific for complete freedom from headache and was not associated with any primary headache disorders.

SMIM1 absence is associated with reduced energy expenditure and excess weight.

BACKGROUND: Obesity rates have nearly tripled in the past 50 years, and by 2030 more than 1 billion individuals worldwide are projected to be obese. This creates a significant economic strain due to the associated non-communicable diseases. The root cause is an energy expenditure imbalance, owing to an interplay of lifestyle, environmental, and genetic factors. Obesity has a polygenic genetic architecture; however, single genetic variants with large effect size are etiological in a minority of cases. These variants allowed the discovery of novel genes and biology relevant to weight regulation and ultimately led to the development of novel specific treatments. METHODS: We used a case-control approach to determine metabolic differences between individuals homozygous for a loss-of-function genetic variant in the small integral membrane protein 1 (SMIM1) and the general population, leveraging data from five cohorts. Metabolic characterization of SMIM1-/- individuals was performed using plasma biochemistry, calorimetric chamber, and DXA scan. FINDINGS: We found that individuals homozygous for a loss-of-function genetic variant in SMIM1 gene, underlying the blood group Vel, display excess body weight, dyslipidemia, altered leptin to adiponectin ratio, increased liver enzymes, and lower thyroid hormone levels. This was accompanied by a reduction in resting energy expenditure. CONCLUSION: This research identified a novel genetic predisposition to being overweight or obese. It highlights the need to investigate the genetic causes of obesity to select the most appropriate treatment given the large cost disparity between them. FUNDING: This work was funded by the National Institute of Health Research, British Heart Foundation, and NHS Blood and Transplant.

Integrative common and rare variant analyses provide insights into the genetic architecture of liver cirrhosis.

We report a multi-ancestry genome-wide association study on liver cirrhosis and its associated endophenotypes, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and γ-glutamyl transferase. Using data from 12 cohorts, including 18,265 cases with cirrhosis, 1,782,047 controls, up to 1 million individuals with liver function tests and a validation cohort of 21,689 cases and 617,729 controls, we identify and validate 14 risk associations for cirrhosis. Many variants are located near genes involved in hepatic lipid metabolism. One of these, PNPLA3 p.Ile148Met, interacts with alcohol intake, obesity and diabetes on the risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We develop a polygenic risk score that associates with the progression from cirrhosis to HCC. By focusing on prioritized genes from common variant analyses, we find that rare coding variants in GPAM associate with lower ALT, supporting GPAM as a potential target for therapeutic inhibition. In conclusion, this study provides insights into the genetic underpinnings of cirrhosis.

Genome-wide analyses identify 21 infertility loci and over 400 reproductive hormone loci across the allele frequency spectrum.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) may help inform treatments for infertility, whose causes remain unknown in many cases. Here we present GWAS meta-analyses across six cohorts for male and female infertility in up to 41,200 cases and 687,005 controls. We identified 21 genetic risk loci for infertility (P≤5E-08), of which 12 have not been reported for any reproductive condition. We found positive genetic correlations between endometriosis and all-cause female infertility (rg=0.585, P=8.98E-14), and between polycystic ovary syndrome and anovulatory infertility (rg=0.403, P=2.16E-03). The evolutionary persistence of female infertility-risk alleles in EBAG9 may be explained by recent directional selection. We additionally identified up to 269 genetic loci associated with follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinising hormone, oestradiol, and testosterone through sex-specific GWAS meta-analyses (N=6,095-246,862). While hormone-associated variants near FSHB and ARL14EP colocalised with signals for anovulatory infertility, we found no rg between female infertility and reproductive hormones (P>0.05). Exome sequencing analyses in the UK Biobank (N=197,340) revealed that women carrying testosterone-lowering rare variants in GPC2 were at higher risk of infertility (OR=2.63, P=1.25E-03). Taken together, our results suggest that while individual genes associated with hormone regulation may be relevant for fertility, there is limited genetic evidence for correlation between reproductive hormones and infertility at the population level. We provide the first comprehensive view of the genetic architecture of infertility across multiple diagnostic criteria in men and women, and characterise its relationship to other health conditions.

Variants at the Interleukin 1 Gene Locus and Pericarditis.

Importance: Recurrent pericarditis is a treatment challenge and often a debilitating condition. Drugs inhibiting interleukin 1 cytokines are a promising new treatment option, but their use is based on scarce biological evidence and clinical trials of modest sizes, and the contributions of innate and adaptive immune processes to the pathophysiology are incompletely understood. Objective: To use human genomics, transcriptomics, and proteomics to shed light on the pathogenesis of pericarditis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of pericarditis from 5 countries. Associations were examined between the pericarditis-associated variants and pericarditis subtypes (including recurrent pericarditis) and secondary phenotypes. To explore mechanisms, associations with messenger RNA expression (cis-eQTL), plasma protein levels (pQTL), and CpG methylation of DNA (ASM-QTL) were assessed. Data from Iceland (deCODE genetics, 1983-2020), Denmark (Copenhagen Hospital Biobank/Danish Blood Donor Study, 1977-2022), the UK (UK Biobank, 1953-2021), the US (Intermountain, 1996-2022), and Finland (FinnGen, 1970-2022) were included. Data were analyzed from September 2022 to August 2023. Exposure: Genotype. Main Outcomes and Measures: Pericarditis. Results: In this genome-wide association study of 4894 individuals with pericarditis (mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 51.4 [17.9] years, 2734 [67.6%] male, excluding the FinnGen cohort), associations were identified with 2 independent common intergenic variants at the interleukin 1 locus on chromosome 2q14. The lead variant was rs12992780 (T) (effect allele frequency [EAF], 31%-40%; odds ratio [OR], 0.83; 95% CI, 0.79-0.87; P = 6.67 × 10-16), downstream of IL1B and the secondary variant rs7575402 (A or T) (EAF, 45%-55%; adjusted OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.93; adjusted P = 9.6 × 10-8). The lead variant rs12992780 had a smaller odds ratio for recurrent pericarditis (0.76) than the acute form (0.86) (P for heterogeneity = .03) and rs7575402 was associated with CpG methylation overlapping binding sites of 4 transcription factors known to regulate interleukin 1 production: PU.1 (encoded by SPI1), STAT1, STAT3, and CCAAT/enhancer-binding protein ß (encoded by CEBPB). Conclusions and Relevance: This study found an association between pericarditis and 2 independent sequence variants at the interleukin 1 gene locus. This finding has the potential to contribute to development of more targeted and personalized therapy of pericarditis with interleukin 1-blocking drugs.