Using multistate models with clinical trial data for a deeper understanding of complex disease processes.

A clinical trial represents a large commitment from all individuals involved and a huge financial obligation given its high cost; therefore, it is wise to make the most of all collected data by learning as much as possible. A multistate model is a generalized framework to describe longitudinal events; multistate hazards models can treat multiple intermediate/final clinical endpoints as outcomes and estimate the impact of covariates simultaneously. Proportional hazards models are fitted (one per transition), which can be used to calculate the absolute risks, that is, the probability of being in a state at a given time, the expected number of visits to a state, and the expected amount of time spent in a state. Three publicly available clinical trial datasets, colon, myeloid, and rhDNase, in the survival package in R were used to showcase the utility of multistate hazards models. In the colon dataset, a very well-known and well-used dataset, we found that the levamisole+fluorouracil treatment extended time in the recurrence-free state more than it extended overall survival, which resulted in less time in the recurrence state, an example of the classic "compression of morbidity." In the myeloid dataset, we found that complete response (CR) is durable, patients who received treatment B have longer sojourn time in CR than patients who received treatment A, while the mutation status does not impact the transition rate to CR but is highly influential on the sojourn time in CR. We also found that more patients in treatment A received transplants without CR, and more patients in treatment B received transplants after CR. In addition, the mutation status is highly influential on the CR to transplant transition rate. The observations that we made on these three datasets would not be possible without multistate models. We want to encourage readers to spend more time to look deeper into clinical trial data. It has a lot more to offer than a simple yes/no answer if only we, the statisticians, are willing to look for it.

Quantitative metrics of bone quality determined at the distal radius using photon-counting CT.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of photon-counting-detector CT (PCD-CT) at deriving bone morphometric indices and demonstrate utility in vivo in the distal radius. METHODS: Ten cadaver wrists were scanned using PCD-CT and high-resolution peripheral quantitative CT (HRpQCT). Correlation between PCD-CT and HRpQCT morphometric indices was determined. Agreement was assessed by Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (Lin's CCC). Wrist PCD-CTs of patients between 02/2022 and 08/2023 were also evaluated for clinical utility. Morphometric indices of the in vivo distal radii were extracted and compared between patients with or without osteoporosis. RESULTS: In cadavers, strong correlation between PCD-CT and HRpQCT was observed for cortical thickness (Spearman correlation, ρ, 0.85), trabecular spacing (ρ = 0.98), and trabecular bone volume fraction (ρ = 0.68). Moderate negative correlation (ρ = - 0.49) was observed for trabecular thickness. PCD-CT shows good agreement to HRpQCT for cortical thickness, trabecular spacing, and trabecular bone volume fraction (Lin's CCC = 0.80, 0.94, and 0.86, respectively) but poor agreement (Lin's CCC = - 0.1) for trabecular thickness. In forty participants (31 adults and 9 pediatric), bone morphometrics indices for cortical thickness, trabecular thickness, trabecular spacing, and trabecular bone volume fraction were 0.99 mm (IQR, 0.89-1.06), 0.38 mm (IQR, 0.25-0.40), 0.82 mm (IQR, 0.72-1.05), and 0.28 (IQR, 0.25-0.33), respectively. Patients with osteoporosis had statistically significantly larger trabecular spacing (p = 0.025) and lower trabecular volumetric bone mineral density (p = 0.042). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the agreement of PCD-CT to HRpQCT in cadavers of most cortical and bone morphometrics examined and provide in vivo quantitative metrics of bone microarchitecture from routine clinical PCD-CT images of the distal radius.

Dietary fat in relation to all-cause mortality and cancer progression and death among people with metastatic colorectal cancer: Data from CALGB 80405 (Alliance)/SWOG 80405.

Data on diet and survival among people with metastatic colorectal cancer are limited. We examined dietary fat in relation to all-cause mortality and cancer progression or death among 1149 people in the Cancer and Leukemia Group B (Alliance)/Southwest Oncology Group (SWOG) 80405 trial who completed a food frequency questionnaire at initiation of treatment for advanced or metastatic colorectal cancer. We examined saturated, monounsaturated, total and specific types (n-3, long-chain n-3 and n-6) of polyunsaturated fat, animal and vegetable fats. We hypothesized higher vegetable fat intake would be associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and cancer progression. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Over median follow-up of 6.1 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 5.3, 7.2 y), we observed 974 deaths and 1077 events of progression or death. Participants had a median age of 59 y; 41% were female and 86% identified as White. Moderate or higher vegetable fat was associated with lower risk of mortality and cancer progression or death (HRs comparing second, third and fourth to first quartile for all-cause mortality: 0.74 [0.62, 0.90]; 0.75 [0.61, 0.91]; 0.79 [0.63, 1.00]; P trend: .12; for cancer progression or death: 0.74 [0.62, 0.89]; 0.78 [0.64, 0.95]; 0.71 [0.57, 0.88]; P trend: .01). No other fat type was associated with all-cause mortality and cancer progression or death. Moderate or higher vegetable fat intake may be associated with lower risk of cancer progression or death among people with metastatic colorectal cancer.

Changes in Prescribing Patterns in Stage III Colon Cancer.

BACKGROUND: For patients with resected stage III colon cancer, 6 months of adjuvant fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy has been the standard of care. The IDEA collaboration aimed to evaluate whether 3 months of adjuvant chemotherapy was noninferior to 6 months. Despite failing to meet its primary endpoint, the subgroup analyses demonstrated noninferiority based on regimen and treatment duration when a risk-stratified approach was used. PATIENTS AND METHODS: To evaluate the impact of the results of the IDEA collaboration, we evaluated adjuvant chemotherapy prescribing practice patterns, including planned adjuvant treatment regimen and duration from January 1, 2016, to January 31, 2021. The time period was selected to evaluate chemotherapy prescribing patterns prior to the abstract presentation of the IDEA collaboration in June 2017 and after full manuscript publication in March 2018. RESULTS: A total of 399 patients with stage III colon cancer who received adjuvant chemotherapy were included in the analysis. A significant increasing trend for use of 3 months of adjuvant chemotherapy was observed after presentation of the IDEA abstract (P<.001). A significant change in CAPOX (capecitabine/oxaliplatin) prescribing was also observed, increasing from 14% of patients prior to presentation of the IDEA abstract to 48% after presentation (P<.001). Comparing 3 months of CAPOX with 6 months of FOLFOX (fluorouracil/leucovorin/oxaliplatin), 3 months of CAPOX use also steadily increased over time (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.28; 95% CI, 1.20-1.37; P<.001). Among subgroups of interest, no differences in adoption of CAPOX were observed. The adoption of 3 months of CAPOX was similar in patients with low-risk cancer (aOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.17-1.37) and those with high-risk cancer (aOR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.16-1.47). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the IDEA collaboration failing to demonstrate noninferiority of 3 months' duration of adjuvant therapy compared with 6 months, the findings have influenced practice prescribing patterns, favoring CAPOX and a shorter duration of planned adjuvant treatment.

Cetuximab and Irinotecan With or Without Bevacizumab in Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer: BOND-3, an ACCRU Network Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: Combination irinotecan and cetuximab is approved for irinotecan-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). It is unknown if adding bevacizumab improves outcomes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase II trial, patients with irinotecan-refractory RAS-wildtype mCRC and no prior anti-EGFR therapy were randomized to cetuximab 500 mg/m2, bevacizumab 5 mg/kg, and irinotecan 180 mg/m2 (or previously tolerated dose) (CBI) versus cetuximab, irinotecan, and placebo (CI) every 2 weeks until disease progression or intolerable toxicity. The primary endpoint was progression-free survival (PFS). Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR), and adverse events (AEs). RESULTS: The study closed early after the accrual of 36 out of a planned 120 patients due to changes in funding. Nineteen patients were randomized to CBI and 17 to CI. Baseline characteristics were similar between arms. Median PFS was 9.7 versus 5.5 months for CBI and CI, respectively (1-sided log-rank P = .38; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-1.66). Median OS was 19.7 versus 10.2 months for CBI and CI (1-sided log-rank P = .02; adjusted HR = 0.41; 95% CI, 0.15-1.09). ORR was 36.8% for CBI versus 11.8% for CI (P = .13). Grade 3 or higher AEs occurred in 47% of patients receiving CBI versus 35% for CI (P = .46). CONCLUSION: In this prematurely discontinued trial, there was no significant difference in the primary endpoint of PFS between CBI and CI. There was a statistically significant improvement in OS in favor of CBI compared with CI. Further investigation of CBI for the treatment of irinotecan-refractory mCRC is warranted.Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02292758.

Marital Status, Living Arrangement, and Cancer Recurrence and Survival in Patients with Stage III Colon Cancer: Findings from CALGB 89803 (Alliance).

BACKGROUND: Limited and conflicting findings have been reported regarding the association between social support and colorectal cancer (CRC) outcomes. We sought to assess the influences of marital status and living arrangement on survival outcomes among patients with stage III colon cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of 1082 patients with stage III colon cancer prospectively followed in the CALGB 89803 randomized adjuvant chemotherapy trial. Marital status and living arrangement were both self-reported at the time of enrollment as, respectively, married, divorced, separated, widowed, or never-married, and living alone, with a spouse or partner, with other family, in a nursing home, or other. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 7.6 years, divorced/separated/widowed patients experienced worse outcomes relative to those married regarding disease free-survival (DFS) (hazards ratio (HR), 1.44 (95% CI, 1.14-1.81); P =.002), recurrence-free survival (RFS) (HR, 1.35 (95% CI, 1.05-1.73); P = .02), and overall survival (OS) (HR, 1.40 (95% CI, 1.08-1.82); P =.01); outcomes were not significantly different for never-married patients. Compared to patients living with a spouse/partner, those living with other family experienced a DFS of 1.47 (95% CI, 1.02-2.11; P = .04), RFS of 1.34 (95% CI, 0.91-1.98; P = .14), and OS of 1.50 (95% CI, 1.00-2.25; P =.05); patients living alone did not experience significantly different outcomes. CONCLUSION: Among patients with stage III colon cancer who received uniform treatment and follow-up within a nationwide randomized clinical trial, being divorced/separated/widowed and living with other family were significantly associated with greater colon cancer mortality. Interventions enhancing social support services may be clinically relevant for this patient population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00003835.

Racial differences in survival and response to therapy in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer: A secondary analysis of CALGB/SWOG 80405 (Alliance A151931).

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between self-identified race and overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and response to therapy among patients enrolled in the randomized Cancer and Leukemia Group B (CALGB)/SWOG 80405 trial. METHODS: Patients with advanced or metastatic colorectal cancer who were enrolled in the CALGB/SWOG 80405 trial were identified by race. On the basis of covariates (treatment arm, KRAS status, sex, age, and body mass index), each Black patient was exact matched with a White patient. The association between race and OS and PFS was examined using a marginal Cox proportional hazard model for matched pairs. The interaction between KRAS status and race was tested in the model. The association between race and response to therapy and adverse events were examined using a marginal logistic regression model. RESULTS: In total, 392 patients were matched and included in the final data set. No difference in OS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-1.16), PFS (HR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.78-1.20), or response to therapy (odds ratio [OR], 1.00; 95% CI, 0.65-1.52) was observed between Black and White patients. Patients with KRAS mutant status (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.02-1.67), a performance statusscore of 1 (reference, a performance status of 0; HR, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.18-1.88), or ≥3 metastatic sites (reference, 1 metastatic site; HR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.22-2.28) experienced worse OS. Black patients experienced lower rates and risk of grade ≥3 fatigue (6.6% vs 13.3%; OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.24-0.91) but were equally likely to be treated with a dose reduction (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.72-1.65). CONCLUSIONS: No difference in OS, PFS, or response to therapy was observed between Black patients and White patients in an equal treatment setting of the CALGB/SWOG 80405 randomized controlled trial. LAY SUMMARY: Despite improvements in screening and treatment, studies have demonstrated worse outcomes in Black patients with colorectal cancer. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there was a difference in cancer-specific outcomes among Black and White patients receiving equivalent treatment on the CALGB/SWOG 80405 randomized clinical trial. In this study, there was no difference in overall survival, progression-free survival, or response to therapy between Black and White patients treated on a clinical trial. These findings suggest that access to care and differences in treatment may be responsible for racial disparities in colorectal cancer.

Preemptive Versus Reactive Topical Clobetasol for Regorafenib-Induced Hand-Foot Reactions: A Preplanned Analysis of the ReDOS Trial.

BACKGROUND: Hand-foot skin reaction (HFSR) is the most common regorafenib-induced adverse event and is in need of effective prevention and palliation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Regorafenib Dose Optimization Study (ReDOS), a four-arm, previously published trial with a 1:1:1:1 randomization scheme, was analyzed in a manner in keeping with the original protocol to assess whether clobetasol 0.05% cream (a corticosteroid) applied to the palms and soles twice per day for 8 weeks was more effective when prescribed preemptively (before the development of HFSR) versus reactively (after the development of HFSR). Patients were assessed during the first two cycles of regorafenib. RESULTS: Sixty-one patients received preemptive clobetasol, and 55 received reactive clobetasol. Groups were balanced on demographics. Over the first two cycles, no evidence of HFSR occurred in 30% with preemptive clobetasol versus 13% with reactive clobetasol (p = .03). During the first cycle, 54% and 45% of patients had no HFSR with preemptive and reactive clobetasol, respectively (p = .35). During the second cycle, 33% and 15% had no HFSR with preemptive and reactive clobetasol, respectively (p = .02). During the second cycle, rates of grade 1, 2, and 3 HFSR were 30%, 8%, and 3%, respectively, with preemptive clobetasol and 43%, 18%, and 7%, respectively, with reactive clobetasol (p = .12). Patient-reported outcomes showed HFSR compromised nearly all activities of daily living with worse quality of life in patients who received reactive versus preemptive clobetasol. No clobetasol-induced adverse events were reported. CONCLUSION: Preemptive clobetasol might lessen regorafenib-induced hand-foot reactions compared with reactive therapy. Further confirmatory studies are needed in a larger patient cohort. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: Regorafenib causes hand-foot skin reactions. Preemptive clobetasol, a high-potency topical corticosteroid, appears to lessen the severity of this adverse event. Although further study is needed, the favorable adverse event profile of this intervention might prompt clinicians to discuss this option with their patients.

Phase II Trial of Trifluridine/Tipiracil in Patients with Advanced, Refractory Biliary Tract Carcinoma.

LESSONS LEARNED: Trifluridine/tipiracil (FTD/TPI) shows promising antitumor activity in heavily pretreated patients with advanced biliary tract carcinoma, including patients with 5-fluorouracil refractory tumors. FTD/TPI has an acceptable safety profile and should be studied further in patients with advanced biliary tract carcinoma after progression on standard first-line therapy. BACKGROUND: Patients with advanced biliary tract carcinoma (BTC) refractory to first-line therapy lack an established second-line option. Trifluridine/tipiracil (FTD/TPI) has activity in both fluoropyrimidine-sensitive and -resistant tumors, which led us to conduct a single arm phase II trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of FTD/TPI for patients previously treated for advanced BTC. METHODS: Patients with advanced BTC previously treated with at least one line of chemotherapy were enrolled and treated with FTD/TPI until disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The primary endpoint target was to have at least 6 patients who were progression free and alive at 16 weeks among 25 evaluable patients. Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS), overall response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS), and toxicity. RESULTS: Of 27 evaluable patients, 59.3% received at least three prior lines of therapy, and 81.5% had previous exposure to fluoropyrimidine. Eight (32%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 14.9%-53.5%) patients were progression free at 16 weeks in the primary analysis population (n = 25), which met the predefined efficacy criteria. Median PFS and OS were 3.8 (95% CI, 2-5.8 months) and 6.1 (95% CI, 4.4-11.4 months) months, respectively. No objective responses were seen. There were no unexpected safety signals noted. CONCLUSION: FTD/TPI demonstrated promising antitumor activity, with acceptable toxicity, in heavily pretreated patients with advanced BTC.

Regorafenib dose-optimisation in patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer (ReDOS): a randomised, multicentre, open-label, phase 2 study.

BACKGROUND: Regorafenib confers an overall survival benefit in patients with refractory metastatic colorectal cancer; however, the adverse event profile of regorafenib has limited its use. Despite no supportive evidence, various dosing schedules are used clinically to alleviate toxicities. This study evaluated the safety and activity of two regorafenib dosing schedules. METHODS: In this randomised, multicentre, open-label, phase 2 study done in 39 outpatient cancer centres in the USA, adults aged 18 years or older with histologically or cytologically confirmed advanced or metastatic adenocarcinoma of the colon or rectum that was refractory to previous standard therapy, including EGFR inhibitors if KRAS wild-type, were enrolled. Eligible patients had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0-1 and had no previous treatment with regorafenib. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1) into four groups with two distinct regorafenib dosing strategies and two clobetasol usage plans, stratified by hospital. Regorafenib dosing strategies were a dose-escalation strategy (starting dose 80 mg/day orally with weekly escalation, per 40 mg increment, to 160 mg/day regorafenib) if no significant drug-related adverse events occurred and a standard-dose strategy (160 mg/day orally) for 21 days of a 28-day cycle. Clobetasol usage plans (0·05% clobetasol cream twice daily applied to palms and soles) were either pre-emptive or reactive. After randomisation to the four preplanned groups, using the Pocock and Simon dynamic allocation procedures stratified by the treating hospitals, we formally tested the interaction between the two interventions, dosing strategy and clobetasol usage. Given the absence of a significant interaction (p=0·74), we decided to pool the data for the pre-emptive and reactive treatment with clobetasol and compared the two dosing strategies (dose escalation vs standard dose). The primary endpoint was the proportion of evaluable patients (defined as those who were eligible, consented, and received any protocol treatment) initiating cycle 3 and was analysed per protocol. Superiority for dose escalation was declared if the one-sided p value with Fisher's exact test was less than 0·2. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02368886. This study is fully accrued but remains active. FINDINGS: Between June 2, 2015, and June 22, 2017, 123 patients were randomly assigned to treatment, of whom 116 (94%) were evaluable. The per-protocol population consisted of 54 patients in the dose-escalation group and 62 in the standard-dose group. At data cutoff on July 24, 2018, median follow-up was 1·18 years (IQR 0·98-1·57). The primary endpoint was met: 23 (43%, 95% CI 29-56) of 54 patients in the dose-escalation group initiated cycle 3 versus 16 (26%, 15-37) of 62 patients in the standard-dose group (one-sided p=0·043). The most common grade 3-4 adverse events were fatigue (seven [13%] patients in the dose-escalation group vs 11 [18%] in the standard-dose group), hand-foot skin reaction (eight [15%] patients vs ten [16%] patients), abdominal pain (nine [17%] patients vs four [6%] patients), and hypertension (four [7%] patients vs nine [15%] patients). 14 patients had at least one drug-related serious adverse event: six patients in the dose-escalation group and eight patients in the standard-dose group. There was one probable treatment-related death in the standard-dose group (myocardial infarction). INTERPRETATION: The dose-escalation dosing strategy represents an alternative approach for optimising regorafenib dosing with comparable activity and lower incidence of adverse events and could be implemented in clinical practice on the basis of these data. FUNDING: Bayer HealthCare Pharmaceuticals.

Marine omega-3 fatty acid intake and survival of stage III colon cancer according to tumor molecular markers in NCCTG Phase III trial N0147 (Alliance).

Marine omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (MO3PUFAs) have anticancer properties and may improve colon cancer survival. However, it remains unknown whether the benefit differs by tumor molecular subtype. We examined data from a phase III randomized trial of FOLFOX or FOLFOX + cetuximab among 1,735 stage III colon cancer patients who completed a dietary questionnaire at enrollment. Multivariable hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the association between MO3PUFA and disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival according to KRAS and BRAFV600E mutations and DNA mismatch repair (MMR) status. Higher MO3PUFA intake was associated with improved 3-year DFS for KRAS wild-type tumors (77% vs. 73%; HR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.67-1.05) but not KRAS-mutant tumors (64% vs. 70%; HR: 1.30; 95% CI: 0.97-1.73; Pinteraction = 0.02). Similar heterogeneity was found by MMR (Pinteraction = 0.14): higher MO3PUFA was associated with better 3-year DFS for tumors with deficient MMR (72% vs. 67%) but not proficient MMR (72% vs. 72%). No heterogeneity was found by BRAFV600E mutation. Similar findings were obtained for overall survival. In conclusion, we found a suggestive beneficial association between higher MO3PUFA intake and improved survival among stage III colon cancer patients with wild-type KRAS and deficient MMR. Given the relatively small number of cases with tumor molecular assessments, further studies, preferably through pooled analyses of multiples cohorts, are needed to validate our findings.

International validation of the consensus Immunoscore for the classification of colon cancer: a prognostic and accuracy study.

BACKGROUND: The estimation of risk of recurrence for patients with colon carcinoma must be improved. A robust immune score quantification is needed to introduce immune parameters into cancer classification. The aim of the study was to assess the prognostic value of total tumour-infiltrating T-cell counts and cytotoxic tumour-infiltrating T-cells counts with the consensus Immunoscore assay in patients with stage I-III colon cancer. METHODS: An international consortium of 14 centres in 13 countries, led by the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer, assessed the Immunoscore assay in patients with TNM stage I-III colon cancer. Patients were randomly assigned to a training set, an internal validation set, or an external validation set. Paraffin sections of the colon tumour and invasive margin from each patient were processed by immunohistochemistry, and the densities of CD3+ and cytotoxic CD8+ T cells in the tumour and in the invasive margin were quantified by digital pathology. An Immunoscore for each patient was derived from the mean of four density percentiles. The primary endpoint was to evaluate the prognostic value of the Immunoscore for time to recurrence, defined as time from surgery to disease recurrence. Stratified multivariable Cox models were used to assess the associations between Immunoscore and outcomes, adjusting for potential confounders. Harrell's C-statistics was used to assess model performance. FINDINGS: Tissue samples from 3539 patients were processed, and samples from 2681 patients were included in the analyses after quality controls (700 patients in the training set, 636 patients in the internal validation set, and 1345 patients in the external validation set). The Immunoscore assay showed a high level of reproducibility between observers and centres (r=0·97 for colon tumour; r=0·97 for invasive margin; p<0·0001). In the training set, patients with a high Immunoscore had the lowest risk of recurrence at 5 years (14 [8%] patients with a high Immunoscore vs 65 (19%) patients with an intermediate Immunoscore vs 51 (32%) patients with a low Immunoscore; hazard ratio [HR] for high vs low Immunoscore 0·20, 95% CI 0·10-0·38; p<0·0001). The findings were confirmed in the two validation sets (n=1981). In the stratified Cox multivariable analysis, the Immunoscore association with time to recurrence was independent of patient age, sex, T stage, N stage, microsatellite instability, and existing prognostic factors (p<0·0001). Of 1434 patients with stage II cancer, the difference in risk of recurrence at 5 years was significant (HR for high vs low Immunoscore 0·33, 95% CI 0·21-0·52; p<0·0001), including in Cox multivariable analysis (p<0·0001). Immunoscore had the highest relative contribution to the risk of all clinical parameters, including the American Joint Committee on Cancer and Union for International Cancer Control TNM classification system. INTERPRETATION: The Immunoscore provides a reliable estimate of the risk of recurrence in patients with colon cancer. These results support the implementation of the consensus Immunoscore as a new component of a TNM-Immune classification of cancer. FUNDING: French National Institute of Health and Medical Research, the LabEx Immuno-oncology, the Transcan ERAnet Immunoscore European project, Association pour la Recherche contre le Cancer, CARPEM, AP-HP, Institut National du Cancer, Italian Association for Cancer Research, national grants and the Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer.

Influence of genetic variation in the vitamin D pathway on plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 levels and survival among patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

PURPOSE: The relationships of genetic variation in the vitamin D pathway with circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 [25(OH)D] levels and survival remain largely unknown for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). METHODS: Among 535 patients participating in a randomized trial of chemotherapy for mCRC, we prospectively measured baseline plasma 25(OH)D and examined 124 tagging single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within seven genes in the vitamin D pathway, including five SNPs associated with circulating 25(OH)D levels in previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We evaluated whether these SNPs were associated with plasma 25(OH)D levels and patient outcome (overall survival, time to progression, and tumor response), using linear, logistic, and Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: We observed a significant association between 25(OH)D levels and an additive genetic risk score determined by the five GWAS-identified SNPs (p = 0.0009). We did not observe any direct association between 25(OH)D-associated SNPs, individually or as a genetic risk score, and patient outcome. However, we found a significant interaction between 25(OH)D levels and rs12785878 genotype in DHCR7 on overall survival (pinteraction = 0.02). CONCLUSION: Germline genetic variation in the vitamin D pathway informs baseline 25(OH)D levels among patients with mCRC. The association between 25(OH)D levels and overall survival may vary by DHCR7 genotype. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00003594 ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00003594 ).

Perioperative Gemcitabine + Erlotinib Plus Pancreaticoduodenectomy for Resectable Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma: ACOSOG Z5041 (Alliance) Phase II Trial.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable interest in a neoadjuvant approach for resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study evaluated perioperative gemcitabine + erlotinib (G+E) for resectable PDAC. METHODS: A multicenter, cooperative group, single-arm, phase II trial was conducted between April 2009 and November 2013 (ACOSOG Z5041). Patients with biopsy-confirmed PDAC in the pancreatic head without evidence of involvement of major mesenteric vessels (resectable) were eligible. Patients (n = 123) received an 8-week cycle of G+E before and after surgery. The primary endpoint was 2-year overall survival (OS), and secondary endpoints included toxicity, response, resection rate, and time to progression. Resectability was assessed retrospectively by central review. The study closed early due to slow accrual, and no formal hypothesis testing was performed. RESULTS: Overall, 114 patients were eligible, consented, and initiated protocol treatment. By central radiologic review, 97 (85%) of the 114 patients met the protocol-defined resectability criteria. Grade 3+ toxicity was reported in 60% and 79% of patients during the neoadjuvant phase and overall, respectively. Twenty-two of 114 (19%) patients did not proceed to surgery; 83 patients (73%) were successfully resected. R0 and R1 margins were obtained in 67 (81%) and 16 (19%) resected patients, respectively, and 54 patients completed postoperative G+E (65%). The 2-year OS rate for the entire cohort (n = 114) was 40% (95% confidence interval [CI] 31-50), with a median OS of 21.3 months (95% CI 17.2-25.9). The 2-year OS rate for resected patients (n = 83) was 52% (95% CI 41-63), with a median OS of 25.4 months (95% CI 21.8-29.6). CONCLUSIONS: For resectable PDAC, perioperative G+E is feasible. Further evaluation of neoadjuvant strategies in resectable PDAC is warranted with more active systemic regimens.

Milestone prediction for time-to-event endpoint monitoring in clinical trials.

Predicting the times of milestone events, ie, interim and final analyses in clinical trials, helps resource planning. This manuscript presents and compares several easily implemented methods for predicting when a milestone event is achieved. We show that it is beneficial to combine the predictions from different models to craft a better predictor through prediction synthesis. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach provides a better measure of the uncertainty involved in prediction of milestone events. We compare the methods through two simulations where the model has been correctly specified and where the models are a mixture of three incorrectly specified model classes. We then apply the methods on two real clinical trial data, North Central Cancer Treatment Group (NCCTG) N0147 and N9841. In summary, the Bayesian prediction synthesis methods automatically perform well even when the data collection is far from homogeneous. An R shiny app is under development to carry out the prediction in a user-friendly fashion.

Alliance for clinical trials in oncology (ALLIANCE) trial A021501: preoperative extended chemotherapy vs. chemotherapy plus hypofractionated radiation therapy for borderline resectable adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas.

BACKGROUND: Borderline resectable pancreatic cancers infiltrate into adjacent vascular structures to an extent that makes an R0 resection unlikely when pancreatectomy is performed de novo. In a pilot study, Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology Trial A021101, the median survival of patients who received chemotherapy and radiation prior to anticipated pancreatectomy was 22 months, and 64% of operations achieved an R0 resection. However, the individual contributions of preoperative chemotherapy and radiation therapy to therapeutic outcome remain poorly defined. METHODS: In Alliance for Clinical Oncology Trial A021501, a recently activated randomized phase II trial, patients (N = 134) with a CT or MRI showing a biopsy-confirmed pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma that meets centrally-reviewed anatomic criteria for borderline resectable disease will be randomized to receive either 8 cycles of modified FOLFIRINOX (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2, irinotecan 180 mg/m2, leucovorin 400 mg/m2 and infusional 5-fluorouracil 2400 mg/m2 over 2 days for 4 cycles) or to 7 cycles of modified FOLFIRINOX followed by stereotactic body radiation therapy (33-40 Gy in 5 fractions). Patients without evidence of disease progression following preoperative therapy will undergo pancreatectomy and will subsequently receive 4 cycles of postoperative modified FOLFOX6 (oxaliplatin 85 mg/m2, leucovorin 400 mg/m2, bolus 5-fluorouracil 400 mg/m2, and infusional 5-fluorouracil 2400 mg/m2 over 2 days for 4 cycles). The primary endpoint is the 18-month overall survival rate of patients enrolled into each of the two treatment arms. An interim analysis of the R0 resection rate within each arm will be conducted to assess treatment futility after accrual of 30 patients. Secondary endpoints include rates of margin-negative resection and event-free survival. The primary analysis will compare the 18-month overall survival rate of each arm to a historical control rate of 50%. The trial is activated nationwide and eligible to be opened for accrual at any National Clinical Trials Network cooperative group member site. DISCUSSION: This study will help define standard preoperative treatment regimens for borderline resectable pancreatic cancer and position the superior arm for further evaluation in future phase III trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT02839343 , registered July 14, 2016.

Quantile Regression Models for Current Status Data.

Current status data arise frequently in demography, epidemiology, and econometrics where the exact failure time cannot be determined but is only known to have occurred before or after a known observation time. We propose a quantile regression model to analyze current status data, because it does not require distributional assumptions and the coefficients can be interpreted as direct regression effects on the distribution of failure time in the original time scale. Our model assumes that the conditional quantile of failure time is a linear function of covariates. We assume conditional independence between the failure time and observation time. An M-estimator is developed for parameter estimation which is computed using the concave-convex procedure and its confidence intervals are constructed using a subsampling method. Asymptotic properties for the estimator are derived and proven using modern empirical process theory. The small sample performance of the proposed method is demonstrated via simulation studies. Finally, we apply the proposed method to analyze data from the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging.

Applying Recovery Biomarkers to Calibrate Self-Report Measures of Energy and Protein in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

We investigated measurement error in the self-reported diets of US Hispanics/Latinos, who are prone to obesity and related comorbidities, by background (Central American, Cuban, Dominican, Mexican, Puerto Rican, and South American) in 2010-2012. In 477 participants aged 18-74 years, doubly labeled water and urinary nitrogen were used as objective recovery biomarkers of energy and protein intakes. Self-report was captured from two 24-hour dietary recalls. All measures were repeated in a subsample of 98 individuals. We examined the bias of dietary recalls and their associations with participant characteristics using generalized estimating equations. Energy intake was underestimated by 25.3% (men, 21.8%; women, 27.3%), and protein intake was underestimated by 18.5% (men, 14.7%; women, 20.7%). Protein density was overestimated by 10.7% (men, 11.3%; women, 10.1%). Higher body mass index and Hispanic/Latino background were associated with underestimation of energy (P<0.05). For protein intake, higher body mass index, older age, nonsmoking, Spanish speaking, and Hispanic/Latino background were associated with underestimation (P<0.05). Systematic underreporting of energy and protein intakes and overreporting of protein density were found to vary significantly by Hispanic/Latino background. We developed calibration equations that correct for subject-specific error in reporting that can be used to reduce bias in diet-disease association studies.

Impact of a rapid microarray-based assay for identification of positive blood cultures for treatment optimization for patients with streptococcal and enterococcal bacteremia.

Implementation of the Verigene Gram-positive blood culture test led to reductions in time to acceptable antibiotic overall (1.9 versus 13.2 h, respectively; P=0.04) and time to appropriate antibiotic for patients with vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (4.2 versus 43.7 h; P=0.006) and viridans group Streptococcus (0.2 versus 7.1 h; P=0.02).

DNA Mutational Profiling in Patients With Colorectal Cancer Treated With Standard of Care Reveals Differences in Outcome and Racial Distribution of Mutations.

PURPOSE: CALGB (Alliance)/SWOG 80405 was a randomized phase III trial that in first-line patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) treated with bevacizumab or cetuximab with chemotherapy. We aimed to discover novel mutated genes associated with prognosis and differential response to therapy with the biologics. METHODS: Primary tumor DNA from 548 patients was sequenced using FoundationOne. The effect of mutated genes and mutations on overall survival (OS) was tested adjusting for microsatellite instability status, BRAF V600E, all RAS mutations, arm, sex, and age. RESULTS: The median number (lower-upper quartile) of mutated genes was 5 (3-7), 5 (3-6) in microsatellite stable and 12.5 (4.5-32) in microsatellite instability-high tumors. Mutated KRAS and APC were more frequent in Black (53% and 85%) than White (27% and 65%, respectively) patients while BRAF V600E was less frequent in Black (5%) than White (14%) patients. The median OS in patients with BRAF non-V600E (2.2% of patients) was 31.9 months (95% CI, 15.1 to not applicable [NA]) similar to that of BRAF wild-type (WT) patients (31.2 months [95% CI, 29.0 to 33.9]). Mutated LRP1B (10.7% of patients) was associated with improved OS compared with WT LRP1B (hazard ratio, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.40 to 0.80]). RNF43 (5.6% of patients) interacted with treatment arms as, in the cetuximab arm, patients with mutated RNF43 had a median OS of 11.5 (95% CI, 10.8 to NA) months compared with 30.1 (95% CI, 24.9 to 35.3) months in patients with WT RNF43, whereas in the bevacizumab arm, patients with mutated RNF43 had a median OS of 25.0 (95% CI, 14.2 to NA) months compared with 31.3 (95% CI, 29.0 to 34.3) months in patients with WT RNF43. CONCLUSION: These results can provide new tools to predict patient outcome and improve therapeutic decisions and trial participation in patient minorities. The molecular alterations identified in this study may direct biomarker-driven studies.