Causal identification of single-cell experimental perturbation effects with CINEMA-OT.

Recent advancements in single-cell technologies allow characterization of experimental perturbations at single-cell resolution. While methods have been developed to analyze such experiments, the application of a strict causal framework has not yet been explored for the inference of treatment effects at the single-cell level. Here we present a causal-inference-based approach to single-cell perturbation analysis, termed CINEMA-OT (causal independent effect module attribution + optimal transport). CINEMA-OT separates confounding sources of variation from perturbation effects to obtain an optimal transport matching that reflects counterfactual cell pairs. These cell pairs represent causal perturbation responses permitting a number of novel analyses, such as individual treatment-effect analysis, response clustering, attribution analysis, and synergy analysis. We benchmark CINEMA-OT on an array of treatment-effect estimation tasks for several simulated and real datasets and show that it outperforms other single-cell perturbation analysis methods. Finally, we perform CINEMA-OT analysis of two newly generated datasets: (1) rhinovirus and cigarette-smoke-exposed airway organoids, and (2) combinatorial cytokine stimulation of immune cells. In these experiments, CINEMA-OT reveals potential mechanisms by which cigarette-smoke exposure dulls the airway antiviral response, as well as the logic that governs chemokine secretion and peripheral immune cell recruitment.

On forensic likelihood ratios from low-coverage sequencing.

With advances in sequencing technology, forensic workers can access genetic information from increasingly challenging samples. A recently published computational approach, IBDGem , analyzes sequencing reads, including from low-coverage samples, in order to arrive at likelihood ratios for tests of identity. Here, we show that likelihood ratios produced by IBDGem test a null hypothesis different from the traditional one used in a forensic genetics context. In particular, rather than testing the hypothesis that the sample comes from a person unrelated to the person of interest, IBDGem tests the hypothesis that the sample comes from an individual who is included in the reference sample used to run the method. This null hypothesis is not generally of forensic interest, because the defense hypothesis is not that the evidence comes from an individual included in a reference panel. Further, it does not take into account genetic variation outside the reference panel, and as a result, the computed likelihood ratios can be much larger than likelihood ratios computed for the standard forensic null hypothesis, often by many orders of magnitude, thus potentially creating an impression of stronger evidence for identity than is warranted. We lay out this result and illustrate it with examples, giving suggestions for directions that might lead to likelihood ratios that have the traditional interpretation.

Subsets of IFN Signaling Predict Response to Immune Checkpoint Blockade in Patients with Melanoma.

PURPOSE: IFN signaling in the tumor microenvironment is a critical determinant of both response and resistance of cancer to immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). We hypothesized that distinct patterns of IFN signaling in melanoma are associated with clinical response or resistance to ICIs. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Two tissue microarrays containing samples from 97 patients with metastatic melanoma who received nivolumab, pembrolizumab, or a combination of ipilimumab and nivolumab at Yale New Haven Hospital between 2011 and 2017 were randomized into discovery and validation cohorts. Samples were stained and visualized using multiplexed immunofluorescence microscopy for STAT1, STAT1 phosphorylated at Y701 (pSTAT1Y701), and PD-L1, and signals were quantified using the automated quantitative analysis method of quantitative immunofluorescence. Treatment response was assessed using RECIST, and overall survival was analyzed. For in vitro studies, human melanoma cell lines were stimulated with IFNγ and IFNß, and Western blotting was performed. RESULTS: Pretreatment STAT1 levels were higher in responders to ICIs [complete response/partial response/stable disease (SD) for > 6 months] than in nonresponders (SD < 6 months/progressive disease). Higher pretreatment STAT1 levels were associated with improved survival after ICIs in both the discovery and validation cohorts. Western blot analysis of human melanoma cell lines stimulated with IFN demonstrated distinct patterns of upregulation of STAT1 compared with pSTAT1Y701 and PD-L1. When combining STAT1 and PD-L1 markers, patients with STAT1highPD-L1low tumors had improved survival compared with those with STAT1lowPD-L1high tumors. CONCLUSIONS: STAT1 may better predict melanoma response to ICIs than current strategies, and combined STAT1 and PD-L1 biomarkers may provide insight into IFN-responsive versus IFN-resistant states.