Future climate-induced distribution shifts in a sexually dimorphic key predator of the Southern Ocean.

The response to climate change in highly dimorphic species can be hindered by differences between sexes in habitat preferences and movement patterns. The Antarctic fur seal, Arctocephalus gazella, is the most abundant pinniped in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of the main consumers of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, in the Southern Ocean. However, the populations breeding in the Atlantic Southern Ocean are decreasing, partly due to global warming. Male and female Antarctic fur seals differ greatly in body size and foraging ecology, and little is known about their sex-specific responses to climate change. We used satellite tracking data and Earth System Models to predict changes in habitat suitability for male and female Antarctic fur seals from the Western Antarctic Peninsula under different climate change scenarios. Under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5; global average temperature +4.4°C projected by 2100), suitable habitat patches will shift southward during the non-breeding season, leading to a minor overall habitat loss. The impact will be more pronounced for females than for males. The reduction of winter foraging grounds might decrease the survival of post-weaned females, reducing recruitment and jeopardizing population viability. During the breeding season, when males fast on land, suitable foraging grounds for females off the South Shetland Islands will remain largely unmodified, and new ones will emerge in the Bellingshausen Sea. As Antarctic fur seals are income breeders, the foraging grounds of females should be reasonably close to the breeding colony. As a result, the new suitable foraging grounds will be useful for females only if nearby beaches currently covered by sea ice emerge by the end of the century. Furthermore, the colonization of these new, ice-free breeding locations might be limited by strong female philopatry. These results should be considered when managing the fisheries of Antarctic krill in the Southern Ocean.

La resposta al canvi climàtic en espècies amb dimorfisme sexual pot veure's dificultada per les diferències entre sexes respecte a les seves preferències d'ús de l'hàbitat i els seus patrons de moviment. L'os marí antàrtic (Arctocephalus gazella), és el pinnípede més abundant a l'Hemisferi Sud i un dels principals consumidors de krill antàrtic, (Euphausia superba), a l'Oceà Antàrtic. No obstant això, les poblacions que es reprodueixen al sector Atlàntic de l'Oceà Antàrtic estan disminuint, en part a causa de l'escalfament global. Els mascles i les femelles de l'os marí antàrtic difereixen considerablement en la seva mida corporal i ecologia tròfica, i es té poc coneixement sobre les seves respostes específiques al canvi climàtic. En aquest estudi hem utilitzat dades de seguiment per satèl·lit i models del Sistema Terrestre per predir els canvis en la idoneïtat de l'hàbitat per als mascles i les femelles d'os marí antàrtic de la Península Antàrtica Occidental sota diferents escenaris de canvi climàtic. Sota l'escenari més extrem (SSP5-8.5; temperatura mitjana mundial +4.4°C prevista per a 2100), les zones d'hàbitat idoni es desplaçaran cap al sud durant l'època d'hivernada (no reproducció), provocant una lleugera pèrdua d'hàbitat idoni. Tot i això, l'impacte serà més pronunciat per a les femelles que per als mascles. Aquesta reducció dels territoris d'alimentació durant l'hivern podria disminuir la supervivència de les femelles postdeslletades, reduint-ne el reclutament i posant en perill la viabilitat de la població. Durant l'època de cria, quan els mascles es troben majoritàriament en dejú a terra, els territoris d'alimentació idonis per a les femelles al voltant de les Illes Shetland del Sud romandran en gran part sense modificar-se, i n'emergiran de nous al mar de Bellingshausen. Com que les femelles d'os marí antàrtic es continuen alimentant durant la cria, els territoris d'alimentació de les femelles han d'estar raonablement a prop de la colònia de cria. Com a resultat, aquestes noves zones d'alimentació seran útils només si les platges properes, actualment cobertes de gel marí, emergeixen al llarg del segle. A més, la colonització d'aquests nous llocs de reproducció lliures de gel podria veure's limitada per la forta filopatria de les femelles. Aquests resultats haurien de tenir-se en compte en la gestió de les pesqueries de krill a l'Oceà Antàrtic.

Hidden demographic impacts of fishing and environmental drivers of fecundity in a sea turtle population.

Fisheries bycatch is a critical threat to sea turtle populations worldwide, particularly because turtles are vulnerable to multiple gear types. The Canary Current is an intensely fished region, yet there has been no demographic assessment integrating bycatch and population management information of the globally significant Cabo Verde loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) population. Using Boa Vista island (Eastern Cabo Verde) subpopulation data from capture-recapture and nest monitoring (2013-2019), we evaluated population viability and estimated regional bycatch rates (2016-2020) in longline, trawl, purse-seine, and artisanal fisheries. We further evaluated current nesting trends in the context of bycatch estimates, existing hatchery conservation measures, and environmental (net primary productivity) variability in turtle foraging grounds. We projected that current bycatch mortality rates would lead to the near extinction of the Boa Vista subpopulation. Bycatch reduction in longline fisheries and all fisheries combined would increase finite population growth rate by 1.76% and 1.95%, respectively. Hatchery conservation increased hatchling production and reduced extinction risk, but alone it could not achieve population growth. Short-term increases in nest counts (2013-2021), putatively driven by temporary increases in net primary productivity, may be masking ongoing long-term population declines. When fecundity was linked to net primary productivity, our hindcast models simultaneously predicted these opposing long-term and short-term trends. Consequently, our results showed conservation management must diversify from land-based management. The masking effect we found has broad-reaching implications for monitoring sea turtle populations worldwide, demonstrating the importance of directly estimating adult survival and that nest counts might inadequately reflect underlying population trends.

Impactos demográficos ocultos de la pesca y determinantes ambientales de la fecundidad en una población de tortugas marinas Resumen La captura accidental de las pesquerías es una amenaza importante para la población mundial de tortugas marinas pues estos reptiles son vulnerables a muchos tipos de artes de pesca. Aunque la Corriente de Canarias es una zona de pesca intensa, no se han realizado análisis demográficos que integren información de la captura accidental y el manejo poblacional de la tortuga caguama de Cabo Verde (Caretta caretta), una población de importancia mundial. Usamos datos de captura-recaptura y monitoreo de nidos (2013-2019) de la subpoblación de la isla Boa Vista (Cabo Verde occidental) para evaluar la viabilidad poblacional y además estimamos el volumen de captura accidental a nivel regional (2016-2020) de las pesquerías de palangre, arrastre, red de cerco y artesanal. También analizamos las tendencias de la anidación en el contexto de las estimas actuales de captura accidental, del posible impacto del traslado de las puestas a viveros y de la variabilidad ambiental (productividad primaria neta) en la zona donde se alimentan las tortugas. Proyectamos que, de persistir, la tasa actual de mortalidad por captura accidental llevaría a la subpoblación de Boa Vista al borde de la extinción. La reducción de la captura accidental en la flota de palangre incrementaría la tasa finita de crecimiento poblacional en un 1.76% y la reducción en todas las flotas un 1.95%. El traslado de las puestas a viveros incrementó la producción de crías y redujo el riesgo de extinción, pero no logra el crecimiento poblacional por sí solo. Los incrementos a corto plazo en el conteo de nidos (2013-2021), causados posiblemente por los incrementos temporales en la productividad primaria neta, pueden estar ocultando un declive poblacional. Cuando relacionamos la fecundidad con la productividad primaria neta, nuestros modelos retrospectivos pronosticaron correctamente ambas tendencias, a corto y largo plazo. Como consecuencia, nuestros resultados mostraron que la gestión de la conservación debe diversificarse más allá de las medidas aplicadas durante la fase terrestre. Los efectos ocultos que descubrimos tienen implicaciones generales para el monitoreo de las poblaciones de tortugas marinas en otras partes del mundo, lo que demuestra la importancia de la estimación directa de la supervivencia de adultos y que el conteo de nidos podría no refleja correctamente las tendencias poblacionales subyacentes.

The role of individual variability on the predictive performance of machine learning applied to large bio-logging datasets.

Animal-borne tagging (bio-logging) generates large and complex datasets. In particular, accelerometer tags, which provide information on behaviour and energy expenditure of wild animals, produce high-resolution multi-dimensional data, and can be challenging to analyse. We tested the performance of commonly used artificial intelligence tools on datasets of increasing volume and dimensionality. By collecting bio-logging data across several sampling seasons, datasets are inherently characterized by inter-individual variability. Such information should be considered when predicting behaviour. We integrated both unsupervised and supervised machine learning approaches to predict behaviours in two penguin species. The classified behaviours obtained from the unsupervised approach Expectation Maximisation were used to train the supervised approach Random Forest. We assessed agreement between the approaches, the performance of Random Forest on unknown data and the implications for the calculation of energy expenditure. Consideration of behavioural variability resulted in high agreement (> 80%) in behavioural classifications and minimal differences in energy expenditure estimates. However, some outliers with < 70% of agreement, highlighted how behaviours characterized by signal similarity are confused. We advise the broad bio-logging community, approaching these large datasets, to be cautious when upscaling predictions, as this might lead to less accurate estimates of behaviour and energy expenditure.

Following up mercury pollution in the Ebro Delta (NE Spain): Audouin's gull fledglings as model organisms to elucidate anthropogenic impacts on the environment.

As top-predators in marine ecosystems, seabirds are regarded as appropriate bioindicator species for a variety of contaminants. Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant, which can biomagnify along marine and freshwater food webs. Therefore, mercury body burden in seabirds, such as gulls, will integrate information about pollution in the environment. In the Ebro Delta (NE Spain), legacy mercury pollution from a chlor-alkali industry located ca. 100 km upstream of the Ebro river mouth has been affecting the delta environment. We have analyzed a 15-year temporal series (2004-2019) of Hg in birds from a breeding colony of Audouin's gull (Ichthyaetus audouinii) in the Ebro Delta to understand how fluctuations in Hg levels are coupled to human activities in the industrial area in the upstream region of the river. Stable isotopic signatures of C and N (δ13Cbulk and δ15Nbulk) are determined to characterize the trophic ecology of the species. Since only δ13Cbulk but not δ15Nbulk was associated with THg levels, we used compound-specific stable nitrogen isotope analysis of amino acids (AA-CSIA) to evaluate the causes of variation in δ15Nbulk to further investigate the idea of a decoupling of δ15Nbulk and THg over time. We found Audouin's gull to be sensitive to Hg variations in the environment due to anthropogenic changes and to be a good indicator species for this contaminant in the Ebro Delta.