Tree-ring formation as an indicator of forest capacity to adapt to the main threats of environmental changes in Lithuania.

Global changes occurring under different environmental conditions have changed stand competition, as well as nutrient and light availability, which has resulted in changes in productivity. Therefore, in the present study, the characteristics of tree-ring width formation of the prevailing Lithuanian tree species, Norway spruce, Scots pine and silver and downy birch, and key factors resulting in their differences during the last 36-year period were investigated at forest sites located on poor mineral oligotrophic and on nutrient-rich organic mesoeutrophic soils. The aim of the study was as follows: first, to separately detect the maximum possible seasonal effect of three groups of variables - meteorology, acidifying pollutants and surface ozone on the stem basal area increment (BAI) of the evaluated tree species; second, to assess the significance of each group of variables affecting the BAI of these tree species integrally with the remaining groups of variables. Norway spruce was found to be well adapted to recent environmental changes, which makes it one of the most favourable tree species for silviculture in the northeastern part of Europe. The rapid increases recorded in growth intensity since 1980 were attributed to the increase in air temperature, precipitation amount, nitrogen deposition during the vegetative stage and reductions in SO2 concentrations and S deposition. Scots pine demonstrated the highest level of resilience and capacity to adapt to recent global changes because its reaction to both negative and favourable environmental factors was best expressed. Silver and downy birch tree reactions to the effects of air concentrations of acidifying compounds, their deposition and surface ozone concentrations were the least expressed; however, a significant decline in growth intensity indicated that these tree species experienced a reduced resistance to recent changes in environmental conditions in the mature and over-mature age groups.

A new paradigm in modelling the evolution of a stand via the distribution of tree sizes.

Our study focusses on investigating a modern modelling paradigm, a bivariate stochastic process, that allows us to link individual tree variables with growth and yield stand attributes. In this paper, our aim is to introduce the mathematics of mixed effect parameters in a bivariate stochastic differential equation and to describe how such a model can be used to aid our understanding of the bivariate height and diameter distribution in a stand using a large dataset provided by the Lithuanian National Forest Inventory (LNFI). We examine tree height and diameter evolution with a Vasicek-type bivariate stochastic differential equation and mixed effect parameters. It is focused on demonstrating how new developed bivariate conditional probability density functions allowed us to calculate the evolution, in the forward and backward directions, of the mean diameter, height, dominant height, assortments, stem volume of a stand and uncertainties in these attributes for a given stand age. We estimate the parameters by considering discrete samples of the diameter and height at a given age and by using an approximated maximum likelihood procedure. The model performance criteria for the height and diameter growth models include statistical indexes and an analysis of residuals.