A comparison of small-area deprivation indicators for public-health surveillance in Sweden.

AIMS: The aims of this study were to construct a small-area index of multiple deprivation (IMD) from single deprivation indicators (SDIs) and to compare the explanatory power of the IMD and SDIs with regard to mortality. We considered a small-area division of Sweden consisting of 5985 DeSO (Demografiska statistikområden), each with a population size between 653 and 4243 at the end of 2018. METHODS: Four SDIs were provided by open-source data: (a) the proportion of inhabitants with a low economic standard; (b) the proportion of inhabitants aged 25-64 years with ⩽12 years of schooling; (c) the proportion of inhabitants aged 16-64 years who were not in paid employment; and (d) the proportion of inhabitants who lived in a rented apartment/house. A four-indicator IMD was constructed using factor analysis. As a validation, the IMD and SDIs were compared by exploring their DeSO-level associations with spatially smoothed death rates, with robustness checks of associations across different small-area contexts defined by degree of urbanisation and distribution of immigrants from non-Western countries. RESULTS: The constructed IMD and SDI1 performed essentially equally and outperformed SDI2, SDI3 and SDI4. Associations between IMD/SDI1 and the spatially smoothed death rates were most pronounced within the age range 60-79 years, showing 5-8% lowered rates among those categorised in the least deprived quintiles of IMD and SDI1, respectively, and 7-9% elevated rates among those categorised in the most deprived quintiles. These associations were consistent within each small-area context. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest prioritisation of SDI1, that is, a DeSO-level deprivation indicator based on open-access data on economic standard, for public-health surveillance in Sweden.

Community factors and excess mortality in the COVID-19 pandemic in England, Italy and Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Analyses of coronavirus disease 19 suggest specific risk factors make communities more or less vulnerable to pandemic-related deaths within countries. What is unclear is whether the characteristics affecting vulnerability of small communities within countries produce similar patterns of excess mortality across countries with different demographics and public health responses to the pandemic. Our aim is to quantify community-level variations in excess mortality within England, Italy and Sweden and identify how such spatial variability was driven by community-level characteristics. METHODS: We applied a two-stage Bayesian model to quantify inequalities in excess mortality in people aged 40 years and older at the community level in England, Italy and Sweden during the first year of the pandemic (March 2020-February 2021). We used community characteristics measuring deprivation, air pollution, living conditions, population density and movement of people as covariates to quantify their associations with excess mortality. RESULTS: We found just under half of communities in England (48.1%) and Italy (45.8%) had an excess mortality of over 300 per 100 000 males over the age of 40, while for Sweden that covered 23.1% of communities. We showed that deprivation is a strong predictor of excess mortality across the three countries, and communities with high levels of overcrowding were associated with higher excess mortality in England and Sweden. CONCLUSION: These results highlight some international similarities in factors affecting mortality that will help policy makers target public health measures to increase resilience to the mortality impacts of this and future pandemics.

Trends in Temperature-associated Mortality in São Paulo (Brazil) between 2000 and 2018: an Example of Disparities in Adaptation to Cold and Heat.

Exposure to non-optimal temperatures remains the single most deathful direct climate change impact to health. The risk varies based on the adaptation capacity of the exposed population which can be driven by climatic and/or non-climatic factors subject to fluctuations over time. We investigated temporal changes in the exposure-response relationship between daily mean temperature and mortality by cause of death, sex, age, and ethnicity in the megacity of São Paulo, Brazil (2000-2018). We fitted a quasi-Poisson regression model with time-varying distributed-lag non-linear model (tv-DLNM) to obtain annual estimates. We used two indicators of adaptation: trends in the annual minimum mortality temperature (MMT), i.e., temperature at which the mortality rate is the lowest, and in the cumulative relative risk (cRR) associated with extreme cold and heat. Finally, we evaluated their association with annual mean temperature and annual extreme cold and heat, respectively to assess the role of climatic and non-climatic drivers. In total, we investigated 4,471,000 deaths from non-external causes. We found significant temporal trends for both the MMT and cRR indicators. The former was decoupled from changes in AMT, whereas the latter showed some degree of alignment with extreme heat and cold, suggesting the role of both climatic and non-climatic adaptation drivers. Finally, changes in MMT and cRR varied substantially by sex, age, and ethnicity, exposing disparities in the adaptation capacity of these population groups. Our findings support the need for group-specific interventions and regular monitoring of the health risk to non-optimal temperatures to inform urban public health policies.

Assessing the health risk of living near composting facilities on lung health, fungal and bacterial disease in cystic fibrosis: a UK CF Registry study.

AIM: To explore the health risk of living near permitted composting sites (PCSs) on disease severity in children and adults with cystic fibrosis (CF) across the UK.  METHODS: A semi-individual cross-sectional study was used to examine the risk of disease severity in people with CF (pwCF) within and beyond 4 km of PCSs in the UK in 2016. All pwCF registered in the UK CF Registry were eligible for this study. Linear and Poisson regressions, adjusted for age, gender, genotype, BMI, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and deprivation, were used to quantify associations between distance to a PCS and percent predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (ppFEV1), pulmonary exacerbations (#IVdays), and fungal and bacterial infections. RESULTS: The mean age of the 9,361 pwCF (3,931 children and 5,430 adults) studied was 20.1 (SD = 14.1) years; 53.3% were male; and 49.2% were homozygous F508del. Over 10% of pwCF (n = 1,015) lived within 4 km of a PCS. We found no statistically significant difference in ppFEV1 and #IVdays/year in children. However, in adults, ppFEV1 was -1.07% lower (95% confidence interval (CI): -2.29%, 0.16%) and #IVdays/year were 1.02 day higher (95%CI: 1.01, 1.04) within 4 km of a PCS. Furthermore, there were statistically significant differences in mean ppFEV1 in CF adults with Aspergillus fumigatus (58.2.% vs 62.0%, p = 0.005) and Candida spp. (56.9% vs 59.9%, p = 0.029) residing within 4 km of a PCS. No associations were identified for allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis, P. aeruginosa or Staphylococcus aureus. CONCLUSIONS: This novel national study provides evidence that adults with CF living near a PCS may experience small reductions in lung function, an increased risk of pulmonary exacerbations, and more frequent fungal infections. If confirmed by studies using refined exposure assessment methods accounting for bioaerosol dispersion, these results could have important implications for the living environment of pwCF.

Co-morbidities and mortality in patients with sickle cell disease in England: A 10-year cohort analysis using hospital episodes statistics (HES) data.

Patients with a primary diagnosis of sickle cell disease (SCD) with or without crisis during the 10-year period January 2009 to December 2018 were identified in the HES Admitted Patient Care (APC) dataset and matched with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality dataset. Three sub-cohorts were defined: 'crises', 'transfusions' and 'other SCD'. APC records were examined for co-morbidities commonly associated with SCD and 10-year mortality rates compared with the general population. After data cleaning and exclusions, 9503 patients remained (entire cohort), with 1171, 201, and 8131 in crises, transfusions, and other SCD sub-cohorts, respectively. Median numbers of co-morbidities per patient were 2 (Interquartile range (IQR): 1-4), 2 (IQR: 1-3), and 1 (IQR: 0-2) in the crises, transfusions, and other SCD sub-cohorts, respectively. The majority of patients in the crises (63.2%) and transfusions (56.3%) cohorts had ≥2 co-morbidities, compared with 25.3% in the other SCD sub-cohort. Crude 10-year mortality rate was 5.3% (entire cohort), compared with 8.0% (crises) and 11.4% (transfusions) sub-cohorts; all rates were substantially higher than in age-sex matched general population. Our study adds further evidence that morbidity and mortality associated with SCD in England is high.

Risk of cardiovascular mortality, stroke and coronary heart mortality associated with aircraft noise around Congonhas airport, São Paulo, Brazil: a small-area study.

BACKGROUND: Noise pollution is increasingly recognised as a public health hazard, yet limited evidence is available from low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), particularly for specific sources. Here, we investigated the association between day-night average (Ldn) aircraft noise and the risk of death due to cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) at small-area level around São Paulo's Congonhas airport, Brazil during the period 2011-2016. METHODS: We selected 3259 census tracts across 16 districts partially or entirely exposed to ≥50 dB aircraft noise levels around the Congonhas airport, using pre-modelled 5 dB Ldn noise  bands (≤50 dB to > 65 dB). We estimated the average noise exposure per census tract using area-weighting. Age, sex and calendar year-specific death counts for CVD, stroke and CHD were calculated by census tract, according to the residential address at time of death. We fitted Poisson regression models to quantify the risk associated with aircraft noise exposure, adjusting for age, sex, calendar year and area-level covariates including socioeconomic development, ethnicity, smoking and road traffic related noise and air pollution. RESULTS: After accounting for all covariates, areas exposed to the highest levels of noise (> 65 dB) showed a relative risk (RR) for CVD and CHD of 1.06 (95% CI: 0.94; 1.20) and 1.11 (95%CI: 0.96; 1.27), respectively, compared to those exposed to reference noise levels (≤50 dB). The RR for stroke ranged between 1.05 (95%CI: 0.95;1.16) and 0.91 (95%CI: 0.78;1.11) for all the noise levels assessed. We found a statistically significant positive trend for CVD and CHD mortality risk with increasing levels of noise (p = 0.043 and p = 0.005, respectively). No significant linear trend was found for stroke. Risk estimates were generally higher after excluding road traffic density, suggesting that road traffic air and noise pollution are potentially important confounders. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides some evidence that aircraft noise is associated with increased risk of CVD and CHD mortality in a middle-income setting. More research is needed to validate these results in other LMIC settings and to further explore the influence of residual confounding and ecological bias. Remarkably, 60% of the study population living near the Congonhas airport (~ 1.5 million) were exposed to aircraft noise levels > 50 dB, well above those recommended by the WHO (45 dB), highlighting the need for public health interventions.

Quantitative Determination and Environmental Risk Assessment of 102 Chemicals of Emerging Concern in Wastewater-Impacted Rivers Using Rapid Direct-Injection Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry.

The rapid source identification and environmental risk assessment (ERA) of hundreds of chemicals of emerging concern (CECs) in river water represent a significant analytical challenge. Herein, a potential solution involving a rapid direct-injection liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry method for the quantitative determination of 102 CECs (151 qualitatively) in river water is presented and applied across six rivers in Germany and Switzerland at high spatial resolution. The method required an injection volume of only 10 µL of filtered sample, with a runtime of 5.5 min including re-equilibration with >10 datapoints per peak per transition (mostly 2 per compound), and 36 stable isotope-labelled standards. Performance was excellent from the low ng/L to µg/L concentration level, with 260 injections possible in any 24 h period. The method was applied in three separate campaigns focusing on the ERA of rivers impacted by wastewater effluent discharges (1 urban area in the Basel city region with 4 rivers, as well as 1 semi-rural and 1 rural area, each focusing on 1 river). Between 25 and 40 compounds were quantified directly in each campaign, and in all cases small tributary rivers showed higher CEC concentrations (e.g., up to ~4000 ng/L in total in the R. Schwarzach, Bavaria, Germany). The source of selected CECs could also be identified and differentiated from other sources at pre- and post- wastewater treatment plant effluent discharge points, as well as the effect of dilution downstream, which occurred over very short distances in all cases. Lastly, ERA for 41 CECs was performed at specific impacted sites, with risk quotients (RQs) at 1 or more sites estimated as high risk (RQ > 10) for 1 pharmaceutical (diclofenac), medium risk (RQ of 1-10) for 3 CECs (carbamazepine, venlafaxine, and sulfamethoxazole), and low risk (RQ = 0.1-1.0) for 7 CECs (i.e., RQ > 0.1 for 11 CECs in total). The application of high-throughput methods like this could enable a better understanding of the risks of CECs, especially in low flow/volume tributary rivers at scale and with high resolution.

Caring for Africa's sickle cell children: will we rise to the challenge?

BACKGROUND: Most of the world's sickle cell disease (SCD) burden is in Africa, where it is a major contributor to child morbidity and mortality. Despite the low cost of many preventive SCD interventions, insufficient resources have been allocated, and progress in alleviating the SCD burden has lagged behind other public-health efforts in Africa. The recent announcement of massive new funding for research into curative SCD therapies is encouraging in the long term, but over the next few decades, it is unlikely to help Africa's SCD children substantially. MAIN DISCUSSION: A major barrier to progress has been the absence of large-scale early-life screening. Most SCD deaths in Africa probably occur before cases are even diagnosed. In the last few years, novel inexpensive SCD point-of-care test kits have become widely available and have been deployed successfully in African field settings. These kits could potentially enable universal early SCD screening. Other recent developments are the expansion of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine towards near-universal coverage, and the demonstrated safety, efficacy, and increasing availability and affordability of hydroxyurea across the continent. Most elements of standard healthcare for SCD children that are already proven to work in the West, could and should now be implemented at scale in Africa. National and continental SCD research and care networks in Africa have also made substantial progress, assembling care guidelines and enabling the deployment and scale-up of SCD public-health systems. Substantial logistical, cultural, and awareness barriers remain, but with sufficient financial and political will, similar barriers have already been overcome in efforts to control other diseases in Africa. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS: Despite remaining challenges, several high-SCD-burden African countries have the political will and infrastructure for the rapid implementation and scale-up of comprehensive SCD childcare programs. A globally funded effort starting with these countries and expanding elsewhere in Africa and to other high-burden countries, including India, could transform the lives of SCD children worldwide and help countries to attain their Sustainable Development Goals. This endeavor would also require ongoing research focused on the unique needs and challenges of SCD patients, and children in particular, in regions of high prevalence.

Temporal trends and demographic risk factors for hospital admissions due to carbon monoxide poisoning in England.

Unintentional non-fire related (UNFR) carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. Epidemiological data on UNFR CO poisoning can help monitor changes in the magnitude of this burden, particularly through comparisons of multiple countries, and to identify vulnerable sub-groups of the population which may be more at risk. Here, we collected data on age- and sex- specific number of hospital admissions with a primary diagnosis of UNFR CO poisoning in England (2002-2016), aggregated to small areas, alongside area-level characteristics (i.e. deprivation, rurality and ethnicity). We analysed temporal trends using piecewise log-linear models and compared them to analogous data obtained for Canada, France, Spain and the US. We estimated age-standardized rates per 100,000 inhabitants by area-level characteristics using the WHO standard population (2000-2025). We then fitted the Besag York Mollie (BYM) model, a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model, to assess the independent effect of each area-level characteristic on the standardized risk of hospitalization. Temporal trends showed significant decreases after 2010. Decreasing trends were also observed across all countries studied, yet France had a 5-fold higher risk. Based on 3399 UNFR CO poisoning hospitalizations, we found an increased risk in areas classified as rural (0.69, 95% CrI: 0.67; 0.80), highly deprived (1.77, 95% CrI: 1.66; 2.10) or with the largest proportion of Asian (1.15, 95% CrI: 1.03; 1.49) or Black population (1.35, 95% CrI: 1.20; 1.80). Our multivariate approach provides strong evidence for the identification of vulnerable populations which can inform prevention policies and targeted interventions.

Disease mapping of early- and late-stage cancer to monitor inequalities in early detection: a study of cutaneous malignant melanoma.

We consider disease mapping of early- and late-stage cancer, in order to identify and monitor inequalities in early detection. Our method is demonstrated by mapping cancer incidence at high geographical resolution using data on 10,302 cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) cases within the 3.7 million population of South-West Sweden. The cases were geocoded into small-areas, each with a population size between 600 and 2600 and accessible socio-demographic data. Using the disease mapping application Rapid Inquiry Facility (RIF) 4.0, we produced regional maps to visualise spatial variations in stage I, II and III-IV CMM incidences, complemented by local maps to explore the variations within two urban areas. Pronounced spatial disparities in stage I CMM incidence were revealed by the regional and local maps. Stage I CMM incidence was markedly higher in wealthier small-areas, in particular within each urban area. A twofold higher stage I incidence was observed, on average, in the wealthiest small-areas (upper quintile) than in the poorest small-areas (lower quintile). We identified in the regional map of stage III-IV CMM two clusters of higher or lower than expected late-stage incidences which were quite distinct from those identified for stage I. In conclusion, our analysis of CMM incidences supported the use of this method of cancer stage incidence mapping for revealing geographical and socio-demographic disparities in cancer detection.

HemoTypeSC, a low-cost point-of-care testing device for sickle cell disease: Promises and challenges.

BACKGROUND: Sickle cell disease (SCD) is a neglected burden of growing importance. >312,000 births are affected annually by sickle cell anaemia (SCA). Early interventions such as newborn screening, penicillin prophylaxis and hydroxyurea can substantially reduce the mortality and morbidity associated with SCD. Nevertheless, their implementation in African countries has been mostly limited to pilot projects. Recent development of low-cost point-of-care testing (POCT) devices for sickle haemoglobin (HbS) could greatly facilitate the diagnosis of those affected. METHODS: We conducted the first multi-centre, real-world assessment of a low-cost POCT device, HemoTypeSC, in a low-income country. Between September and November 2017, we screened 1121 babies using both HemoTypeSC and HPLC and confirmed discordant samples by molecular diagnosis. FINDINGS: We found that, in optimal field conditions, the sensitivity and specificity of the test for SCA were 93.4% and 99.9%, respectively. All 14 carriers of haemoglobin C were successfully identified. Our study reveals an overall accuracy of 99.1%, but also highlights the importance of rigorous data collection, staff training and accurate confirmatory testing. It suggests that HPLC results might not be as reliable in a resource-poor setting as usually considered. INTERPRETATION: The use of such a POCT device can be scaled up and routinely used across multiple healthcare centres in sub-Saharan Africa, which would offer great potential for the identification and management of vast numbers of individuals affected by SCD who are currently undiagnosed. FUNDING US: Imperial College London's Wellcome Trust Centre for Global Health Research (grant #WMNP P43370).

Newborn screening for sickle cell disease in Europe: recommendations from a Pan-European Consensus Conference.

Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) is an increasing global health problem and presents significant challenges to European health care systems. Newborn screening (NBS) for SCD enables early initiation of preventive measures and has contributed to a reduction in childhood mortality from SCD. Policies and methodologies for NBS vary in different countries, and this might have consequences for the quality of care and clinical outcomes for SCD across Europe. A two-day Pan-European consensus conference was held in Berlin in April 2017 in order to appraise the current status of NBS for SCD and to develop consensus-based statements on indications and methodology for NBS for SCD in Europe. More than 50 SCD experts from 13 European countries participated in the conference. This paper aims to summarise the discussions and present consensus recommendations which can be used to support the development of NBS programmes in European countries where they do not yet exist, and to review existing programmes.

Real-life experience with hydroxyurea in sickle cell disease: A multicenter study in a cohort of patients with heterogeneous descent.

We conducted the first nation-wide cohort study of sickle cell disease (SCD) in Italy, a Southern European country exposed to intense recent flux migration from endemic areas for SCD. We evaluate the impact of hydroxyurea on a total of 652 pediatric and adult patients from 33 Reference Centers for SCD (mean age 24.5±15years, 51.4% males). Hydroxyurea median treatment duration was 7years (range: <1year to 29years) at a mean therapeutic dose of 18±4.7mg/kg/day. Hydroxyurea was associated with a significant increase in mean total and fetal hemoglobin and a significant decrease in mean hemoglobin S, white blood and platelet counts, and lactate dehydrogenase levels. Hydroxyurea was associated with a significant reduction in the incidence of acute chest syndrome (-29.3%, p<0.001), vaso-occlusive crisis (-34.1%, p<0.001), hospitalization (-53.2%, p<0.001), and bone necrosis (-6.9%, p<0.001). New silent cerebral infarction (SCI) occurred during treatment (+42.4%, p<0.001) but not stroke (+0.5%, p=0.572). These observations were generally consistent upon stratification for age, descent (Caucasian or African), genotype (ßS/ßS, ßS/ß0 or ßS/ß+) and duration of treatment (< or ≥10years). There were no new safety concerns observed compared to those commonly reported in the literature. Our study, conducted on a large population of patients with different descent and compound state supports the benefits of hydroxyurea therapy as a treatment option. Registered at clinical trials.gov (NCT02709681).

The α-thalassemias.

More than 100 varieties of α-thalassemia have been identified. Their geographic distribution and the challenges associated with screening, diagnosis, and management suggest that α-thalassemias should have a higher priority on global public health agendas.

Associations between environmental factors and hospital admissions for sickle cell disease.

Sickle cell disease is an increasing global health burden. This inherited disease is characterized by a remarkable phenotypic heterogeneity, which can only partly be explained by genetic factors. Environmental factors are likely to play an important role but studies of their impact on disease severity are limited and their results are often inconsistent. This study investigated associations between a range of environmental factors and hospital admissions of young patients with sickle cell disease in London and in Paris between 2008 and 2012. Specific analyses were conducted for subgroups of patients with different genotypes and for the main reasons for admissions. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models were used to assess the magnitude of the associations and to calculate relative risks. Some environmental factors significantly influence the numbers of hospital admissions of children with sickle cell disease, although the associations identified are complicated. Our study suggests that meteorological factors are more likely to be associated with hospital admissions for sickle cell disease than air pollutants. It confirms previous reports of risks associated with wind speed (risk ratio: 1.06/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 1.00-1.12) and also with rainfall (1.06/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.12). Maximum atmospheric pressure was found to be a protective factor (0.93/standard deviation; 95% confidence interval: 0.88-0.99). Weak or no associations were found with temperature. Divergent associations were identified for different genotypes or reasons for admissions, which could partly explain the lack of consistency in earlier studies. Advice to patients with sickle cell disease usually includes avoiding a range of environmental conditions that are believed to trigger acute complications, including extreme temperatures and high altitudes. Scientific evidence to support such advice is limited and sometimes confusing. This study shows that environmental factors do explain some of the variations in rates of admission to hospital with acute symptoms in sickle cell disease, but the associations are complex, and likely to be specific to different environments and the individual's exposure to them. Furthermore, this study highlights the need for prospective studies with large numbers of patients and standardized protocols across Europe.

Observed and expected frequencies of structural hemoglobin variants in newborn screening surveys in Africa and the Middle East: deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium.

PURPOSE: Our objective was to compare observed and expected genotype proportions from newborn screening surveys of structural hemoglobin variants. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of newborn screening surveys of hemoglobins S and C in Africa and the Middle East. We compared observed frequencies to those expected assuming Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). Significant deviations were identified by an exact test. The fixation index FIS was calculated to assess excess homozygosity. We compared newborn estimates corrected and uncorrected for HWE deviations using demographic data. RESULTS: Sixty samples reported genotype counts for hemoglobin variants in Africa and the Middle East. Observed and expected counts matched in 27%. The observed number of sickle cell anemia (SCA) individuals was higher than expected in 42 samples, reaching significance (P < 0.05) in 24. High FIS values were common across the study regions. The estimated total number of newborns with SCA, corrected based on FIS, was 33,261 annual births instead of 24,958 for the 38 samples across sub-Saharan Africa and 1,109 annual births instead of 578 for 12 samples from the Middle East. CONCLUSION: Differences between observed and expected genotype frequencies are common in surveys of hemoglobin variants in the study regions. Further research is required to identify and quantify factors responsible for such deviations. Estimates based on HWE might substantially underestimate the annual number of SCA-affected newborns (up to one-third in sub-Saharan Africa and one-half in the Middle East).