The Italian guideline on comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) for the older persons: a collaborative work of 25 Italian Scientific Societies and the National Institute of Health.

BACKGROUND: The guideline was promoted by the Italian General Practitioners-Primary Care and Geriatrics Hospital-Community Societies and was carried out involving the National Institute of Health and an Expert Panel including representatives from 25 Scientific and Health-Professional Organizations. The aim of the Guideline was to develop evidence-based recommendations on the efficacy of CGA in older people across different clinical settings and the accuracy and utility of CGA-based tools to assess prognosis. METHODS: According to the methodological handbook of the Italian National System of Guidelines and NICE criteria (National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in England), the Guideline was produced based on the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation. Over 20,000 records gathered through databases searches were initially selected. Sixteen recommendations on CGA efficacy were defined based on 117 studies that met the inclusion criteria and were performed in general practices and primary care (26 studies included), medical and surgical clinics (16 studies), emergency departments (17 studies), hospital medical and surgical wards (53 studies), long-term care facilities and nursing homes (5 studies), hospices and palliative care networks (no studies). Nine recommendations on CGA-based prognostic tools were issues based on 42 included studies carried out in general practices and primary care (5 studies), medical and surgical clinics (4 studies), and hospital wards (33 studies). RESULTS: Using CGA can be useful to reduce hospitalization, mortality, institutionalization, the risk of delirium, and improve appropriateness in drug prescription and maintain functional activities in different settings. Further research on the efficacy of CGA in rehabilitative facilities, nursing homes, and hospice and palliative-care settings is recommended. CGA-based tools, particularly the Multidimensional Prognostic Index, should be used to predict some negative outcomes in different settings. CONCLUSIONS: This Guideline may be useful in clinical practice and as a tool to support research on the use of CGA in older people.

Resilience improvement through a multicomponent physical and cognitive intervention for older people: the DanzArTe emotional well-being technology project.

BACKGROUND: Resilience is a crucial component of successful aging. However, which interventions might increase resilience in older adults is yet unclear. AIMS: This study aims to assess the feasibility and the physical and psychological effects of a technology-based multicomponent dance movement intervention that includes physical, cognitive, and sensory activation in older people living in community-dwelling and nursing home. METHODS: DanzArTe program consists of four sessions on a weekly basis, using a technological platform that integrates visual and auditory contents in real time. 122 participants (mean age = 76.3 ± 8.8 years, 91 females = 74.6%) from seven nursing homes and community-dwelling subjects were assessed, before and after the intervention, with the Resilience Scale-14 items (RES-14), the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), the Psychological General Well-Being Index (PGWBI-S), and the Client Satisfaction Questionnaire-8 (CSQ-8). Mann-Whitney and Wilcoxon signed-ranks tests were used for statistical analyses. RESULTS: At baseline significant differences in MPI and RES-14 between community-dwelling and nursing home residents were observed (p < 0.001 for both analyses). After the intervention, resilience significantly increased in total sample (RES-14 mean T1 = 74.6 Vs. T2 = 75.7) and in the nursing home residents (RES-14 mean T1 = 68.1 Vs. T2 = 71.8). All participants showed high overall satisfaction for DanzArTe program (CSQ-8 mean = 23.9 ± 4.4). No differences in MPI and PGWBI-S were observed. DISCUSSION: DanzArTe was a feasible intervention and high appreciated by all older adults. Nursing home residents revealed improvements in resilience after DanzArTe program. CONCLUSION: The DanzArTe technology-based multi-component intervention may improve resilience in older people living in nursing homes.

Can pain be self-managed? Pain change in vulnerable participants to a health education programme.

Chronic pain exerts a significant impact on the quality of life, giving rise to both physical and psycho-social vulnerabilities. It not only leads to direct costs associated with treatments, but also results in indirect costs due to the reduced productivity of affected individuals. Chronic conditions can be improved by reducing modifiable risk factors. Various educational programs, including the Chronic Disease Self-Management Programme (CDSMP), have demonstrated the advantages of enhancing patient empowerment and health literacy. Nevertheless, their efficacy in addressing pain symptoms has received limited attention, especially concerning vulnerable populations. This research aims to assess the effectiveness of the CDSMP in alleviating pain among socio-economically vulnerable participants with chronic conditions. By accounting for a wide range of variables, and using data from the EFFICHRONIC project (EU health programme), we investigated the changes in pain levels after the intervention, among 1070 participants from five European countries. Our analyses revealed a significant reduction in pain following the intervention. This finding supports the notion that training programs can effectively ameliorate pain and alleviate its impact on the quality of life, particularly in vulnerable populations. Younger participants, as well as those with higher education levels and individuals experiencing higher levels of pain at baseline, were more likely to experience a reduction in their pain levels. These findings underscore the importance of recognising the social determinants of health. The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (ISRCTN70517103).

The PRO-HOME Project. A multicomponent intervention for the protected discharge from the hospital of multimorbid and polytreated older individuals by using innovative technologies: A pilot study.

BACKGROUD: Discharge planning from the hospital of frail older patients is an important step to avoid inappropriate long-stay hospitalizations and to prevent the risks related to the prolonged hospitalization. In this frame, we developed an experimental trial-'PRO-HOME', a multicomponent programme of interventions for multimorbid and polytreated hospitalized older patients. AIM: The main aim of the study was to develop a protected discharge facility using a mini apartment equipped with advanced architectural and technological components to reduce the length of hospital stay of older participants (aged 65+ years old) admitted to the hospital for an acute event, deemed stable and dischargeable. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a pilot randomized controlled study, comparing 30 hospitalized participants included in a multidimensional, transitional care programme based on information and communication technologies to 30 patients in standard usual care until hospital discharge. RESULTS: We presented the study design of the PRO-HOME programme, including architectural and technological components, the enrolment procedures, the components of the intervention that is physical activity, cognitive training and life-style education and the evaluation method of the intervention based on the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment to explore the changes in the individual domains that are target of the multicomponent intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The final results will suggest whether the PRO-HOME programme represents a useful and feasible intervention to reduce the length of hospital stay of multimorbid and polytreated hospitalized older patients and improve their physical and cognitive performances and overall quality of life. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Due to the characteristics of the population of interest of the PRO-HOME study, we involved in the study design and programme of the activities the participants enrolled in a previous smart home-based project named MoDiPro carried-out during a 3-year period. The elderly participants from the local population involved were asked, by means of focus groups, for feedback on their experience in MoDiPro, and their suggestions were integrated into the design phase of the current PRO-HOME project. The focus groups included open group interviews with a qualitative collection of the patients' feedback so that the participants could interact with each other.

Biomarkers for risk stratification and antibiotic stewardship in elderly patients.

PURPOSE: Optimal treatment of infections in the elderly patients population is challenging because clinical symptoms and signs may be less specific potentially resulting in both, over- and undertreatment. Elderly patients also have a less pronounced immune response to infection, which may influence kinetics of biomarkers of infection. METHODS: Within a group of experts, we critically reviewed the current literature regarding biomarkers for risk stratification and antibiotic stewardship in elderly patients with emphasis on procalcitonin (PCT). RESULTS: The expert group agreed that there is strong evidence that the elderly patient population is particularly vulnerable for infections and due to ambiguity of clinical signs and parameters in the elderly, there is considerable risk for undertreatment. At the same time, however, this group of patients is particularly vulnerable for off-target effects from antibiotic treatment and limiting the use of antibiotics is therefore important. The use of infection markers including PCT to guide individual treatment decisions has thus particular appeal in geriatric patients. For the elderly, there is evidence that PCT is a valuable biomarker for assessing the risk of septic complications and adverse outcomes, and helpful for guiding individual decisions for or against antibiotic treatment. There is need for additional educational efforts regarding the concept of "biomarker-guided antibiotic stewardship" for health care providers caring for elderly patients. CONCLUSION: Use of biomarkers, most notably PCT, has high potential to improve the antibiotic management of elderly patients with possible infection for improving both, undertreatment and overtreatment. Within this narrative review, we aim to provide evidence-based concepts for the safe and efficient use of PCT in elderly patients.

Frailty trajectories in community-dwelling older adults during COVID-19 pandemic: The PRESTIGE study.

BACKGROUND: Frailty has been recognized as potential surrogate of biological age and relevant risk factor for COVID-19 severity. Thus, it is important to explore the frailty trajectories during COVID-19 pandemic and understand how COVID-19 directly and indirectly impacts on frailty condition. METHODS: We enrolled 217 community-dwelling older adults with available information on frailty condition as assessed by multidimensional frailty model both at baseline and at one-year follow-up using Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) tools. Pre-frail/frail subjects were identified at baseline as those with MPI score >0.33 (MPI grades 2-3). Frailty worsening was defined by MPI difference between 12 months follow-up and baseline ≥0.1. Multivariable logistic regression was modelled to identify predictors of worsening of frailty condition. RESULTS: Frailer subjects at baseline (MPI grades 2-3 = 48.4%) were older, more frequently female and had higher rates of hospitalization and Sars-CoV-2 infection compared to robust ones (MPI grade 1). Having MPI grades 2-3 at baseline was associated with higher risk of further worsening of frailty condition (adjusted odd ratio (aOR): 13.60, 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.01-46.09), independently by age, gender and Sars-CoV-2 infection. Specifically, frail subjects without COVID-19 (aOR: 14.84, 95% CI: 4.26-51.74) as well as those with COVID-19 (aOR: 12.77, 95% CI: 2.66-61.40, p = 0.001) had significantly higher risk of worsening of frailty condition. CONCLUSIONS: Effects of COVID-19 pandemic among community-dwelling frailer individuals are far beyond the mere infection and disease, determining a significant deterioration of frailty status both in infected and non-infected subjects.

Comprehensive geriatric assessment in older people: an umbrella review of health outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) has been in use for the last three decades. However, some doubts remain regarding its clinical use. Therefore, we aimed to capture the breadth of outcomes reported and assess the strength of evidence of the use of comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) for health outcomes in older persons. METHODS: Umbrella review of systematic reviews of the use of CGA in older adults searching in Pubmed, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane library and CINHAL until 05 November 2021. All possible health outcomes were eligible. Two independent reviewers extracted key data. The grading of evidence was carried out using the GRADE for intervention studies, whilst data regarding systematic reviews were reported as narrative findings. RESULTS: Among 1,683 papers, 31 systematic reviews (19 with meta-analysis) were considered, including 279,744 subjects. Overall, 13/53 outcomes were statistically significant (P < 0.05). There was high certainty of evidence that CGA reduces nursing home admission (risk ratio [RR] = 0.86; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.75-0.89), risk of falls (RR = 0.51; 95%CI: 0.29-0.89), and pressure sores (RR = 0.46; 95%CI: 0.24-0.89) in hospital medical setting; decreases the risk of delirium (OR = 0.71; 95%CI: 0.54-0.92) in hip fracture; decreases the risk of physical frailty in community-dwelling older adults (RR = 0.77; 95%CI: 0.64-0.93). Systematic reviews without meta-analysis indicate that CGA improves clinical outcomes in oncology, haematology, and in emergency department. CONCLUSIONS: CGA seems to be beneficial in the hospital medical setting for multiple health outcomes, with a high certainty of evidence. The evidence of benefits is less strong for the use of CGA in other settings.

Multidimensional frailty and quality of life: data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

PURPOSE: Frailty has been found to be associated with poor quality of life (QoL) in older people, but data available are limited to cross-sectional studies. We therefore aimed to assess the association between multidimensional frailty, determined by Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI), with mortality and good QoL expectancy (GQoLE) in a large representative sample of older adults, over 10 years of follow-up. METHODS: In the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, using the data from 2004-2005 and 2014-2015, MPI was calculated using a weighted score of domains of comprehensive geriatric assessment, i.e., number of difficulties in activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADL, depressive symptoms, number of medical conditions, body mass index, physical activity level, and social aspects. Mortality was assessed using administrative data, GQoLE indicators were used for longitudinal changes in QoL. RESULTS: 6244 Participants (mean age 71.8 years, 44.5% males) were followed up for 10 years. After adjusting for potential confounders, compared to people in the MPI low-risk group, people in the moderate (hazard ratio, HR = 4.27; 95% confidence interval, CI 3.55-5.14) and severe-risk group (HR = 10.3; 95% CI 7.88-13.5) experienced a significantly higher mortality rate. During the follow-up period, people in the moderate and severe-risk groups reported lower GQoLE values than their counterparts, independently from age and gender. CONCLUSIONS: Multidimensional frailty was associated with a higher risk of mortality and significantly lower GQoLE, suggesting that the multifactorial nature of frailty is associated not only with mortality, but also poor QoL.

Multidimensional Prognostic Index Predicts Clinical Outcome and Mortality in Hospitalised Older Patients with Diverticular Disease.

INTRODUCTION: The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is a validated tool for assessing mortality risk in hospitalised patients. We aimed to evaluate whether the MPI predicted mortality and the risk of developing diverticular disease (DD) complications in older patients. METHODS: This is a multicentre study conducted in January 2016-March 2018. All patients with DD aged 65 years and older were included. Patients were stratified into three groups according to MPI groups (1, low risk; 2, moderate risk; 3, high risk). Risk of developing DD complications and mortality rate were assessed. Bivariate models were fitted. RESULTS: One hundred hospitalised patients with DD (mean age 77.9 ± 10.6 years, 53 female patients) were included. Patients with higher MPI groups were more likely to develop DD complications. In particular, 12 (46.2%), 21 (52.5%), and 28 (82.4%) patients with complicated DD were distributed to the MPI 1, MPI 2, and MPI 3 groups (p = 0.0063), respectively. Two patients died in the MPI 1, 4 in the MPI 2, and 29 in the MPI 3 group, with mortality rates of 4.0 per 100 person-year (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-15.9), 5.6 (95% CI 2.1-15.0), and 89.2 (95% CI 62-130), respectively (log-rank test p < 0.001). In bivariate analysis, after adjustment for age >80 years, Charlson Comorbidity Index >4, DD complications, and the presence of thromboembolism, higher MPI group was independently associated with higher mortality. Those in the MPI 3 group experienced a greater risk of 1-year hospital readmission (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: MPI predicted mortality in patients with DD and also correlated with the risk of developing DD complications. Studies focussing on possible pathophysiological mechanisms between DD complications and MPI are needed.

The chronic disease Self-Management Programme: A phenomenological study for empowering vulnerable patients with chronic diseases included in the EFFICHRONIC project.

INTRODUCTION: The Chronic Disease Self-Management Programme (CDSMP) has resulted in improved health outcomes for patients. However, research has focused mainly on those with chronic conditions and has not extensively explored prevention programmes targeting individuals with specific vulnerability profiles. AIM: This study aimed to understand the effects of the CDSMP on the lived experience of vulnerable patients included in the EFFICHRONIC project in France, based on their needs and expectations before and after participation. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative phenomenological semio-pragmatic study based on 37 in-depth interviews with 20 patients (20 before/17 after CDSMP). RESULTS: By transforming existential dimensions (identity, relationship with others and bodily experience), chronic illness generates new needs in the vulnerable person. By resonating with the expectations and needs of participants, the CDSMP induces motivation and a sense of belonging to a community of peers. It has enabled the participants to become actors of their own health until empowerment. Although some limitations are reported, the programme has awakened a desire in the participants to take better care of their health and to develop personal skills with, for some, a desire to become involved in health education. CONCLUSION: Our phenomenological approach highlighted the resonance between the programme (its design and implementation) and the lived experience of patients, as an effective element of empowerment. This necessitates training the facilitators to elicit the lived experience of patients. Furthermore, as a patient-centred approach is required, the facilitators need to learn how to adapt the design of the programme to the singularity of the patient. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Patients provided the data that were collected through in-depth interviews, and their experiences before and after the programme were analysed.

Contribution of clinical severity and geriatric risk factors in predicting short-term mortality of older hospitalized pneumonia patients: the Pneumonia in Italian Acute Care for Elderly units (PIACE) study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical severity of pneumonia in older persons increases the risk for short-term mortality. Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) may provide further insight in prognostic stratification. AIMS: To investigate whether CGA may improve prognostic stratification among older patients with pneumonia admitted to hospital. METHODS: Our series consisted of 318 consecutive patients hospitalized for pneumonia in a multicenter observational study. Disease severity was assessed by Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI). CGA included the occurrence of delirium, Basic Activities of Daily Living (BADL) disability, cognitive impairment at Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ) and overall comorbidity assessed by Cumulative Illness Rating Scale (CIRS). The outcomes were in-hospital and post-discharge 3 month mortality. Statistical analysis was carried out by Cox regression, area under receiver operating curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI). RESULTS: Overall, 53 patients died during hospitalization and 52 after discharge. Delirium, SOFA score and admission BADL disability were significant predictors of in-hospital mortality. SOFA score, CIRS, previous long-term oxygen therapy and discharge BADL dependency significantly predicted post-discharge mortality. The accuracy of SOFA in predicting in-hospital and post-discharge mortality was fair (AUC = 0.685, 95% CI = 0.610-0.761 and AUC = 0.663, 95% CI = 0.593-0.734, respectively). BADL dependency and delirium improved predictive accuracy for in-hospital mortality (ΔAUC = 0.144, 95% CI = 0.062-0.227, p < 0.001), while pre-admission oxygen therapy, CIRS and BADL dependency improved predictivity for 3 month mortality (ΔAUC = 0.177, 95% CI = 0.102-0.252, p < 0.001). DISCUSSION: Among older pneumonia patients, prognostic stratification obtained by clinical severity indexes is significantly improved by CGA risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: CGA provides important information for prognostic stratification and clinical management of older pneumonia patients.

Current evidence on the impact of medication optimization or pharmacological interventions on frailty or aspects of frailty: a systematic review of randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Frailty and adverse drug effects are linked in the fact that polypharmacy is correlated with the severity of frailty; however, a causal relation has not been proven in older people with clinically manifest frailty. METHODS: A literature search was performed in Medline to detect prospective randomized controlled trials (RCTs) testing the effects of pharmacological interventions or medication optimization in older frail adults on comprehensive frailty scores or partial aspects of frailty that were published from January 1998 to October 2019. RESULTS: Twenty-five studies were identified, 4 on comprehensive frailty scores and 21 on aspects of frailty. Two trials on comprehensive frailty scores showed positive results on frailty although the contribution of medication review in a multidimensional approach was unclear. In the studies on aspects related to frailty, ten individual drug interventions showed improvement in physical performance, muscle strength or body composition utilizing alfacalcidol, teriparatide, piroxicam, testosterone, recombinant human chorionic gonadotropin, or capromorelin. There were no studies examining negative effects of drugs on frailty. CONCLUSION: So far, data on a causal relationship between drugs and frailty are inconclusive or related to single-drug interventions on partial aspects of frailty. There is a clear need for RCTs on this topic that should be based on a comprehensive, internationally consistent and thus reproducible concept of frailty assessment.

Role of a multidimensional prognosis in-hospital monitoring for older patients with prolonged stay.

OBJECTIVES: The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is a prognostic tool-amongst others-validated for mortality, length of hospital stay (LHS) and rehospitalisation risk assessment. Like the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA), the MPI is usually obtained at hospital admission and discharge, not during the hospital stay. The aim of the present study was to address the role of an additional CGA-based MPI measurement during hospitalisation as an indicator of "real-time" in-hospital changes. STUDY DESIGN AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Two-hundred consecutive multimorbid patients (128 M, 72 F, median age 75 (78-82)) admitted to an internal medicine ward of a German metropolitan university hospital prospectively underwent a CGA and a prognosis calculation using the MPI on admission and discharge. Seven to 10 days later, an intermediate assessment (IA) was performed for patients needing a longer stay. RESULTS: The median LHS was 10 (6-19) days. As expected, patients who received an IA had poorer prognosis as measured by higher MPI values (P = .037) and a worse functional status at admission than patients who had a shorter stay (P = .025). In case of prolonged hospitalisation, significant changes in the MPI were detected between admission and IA, both in terms of improvement and deterioration (P < .001). Different overtime courses were observed during prolonged hospitalisation according to the severity of prognosis (P < .001). CONCLUSION: A CGA-based MPI evaluation during hospitalisation can be used as an objective instrument to detect changes in multidimensional health course. Prompt identification of the latter may enable quick tailored interventions to ensure overall better outcomes at and after discharge.

Validation and implementation of telephone-administered version of the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (TELE-MPI) for remote monitoring of community-dwelling older adults.

BACKGROUND: During the recent lockdown measures adopted by national authorities to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, many vulnerable older patients with chronic conditions, normally followed in ambulatory setting, needed to be monitored and managed in alternative ways, including telemedicine. AIMS: In the framework of a telemedicine program, we aimed to validate and implement a telephone-administered version of the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (TELE-MPI) among community-dwelling older outpatients. METHOD: From March 9 to May 11, 2020, 131 older patients (82.1 years; 74% females) were interviewed using a telephone-based survey to calculate the TELE-MPI. The standard MPI was performed face-to-face three months apart. The Bland-Altman methodology measured the agreement between the two tools. Multivariate logistic regression models were built to ascertain the prognostic value of TELE-MPI and TELE-MPI classes (low, moderate, or severe risk) on negative outcomes occurring during the lockdown period. RESULTS: Mean MPI and TELE-MPI values were 0.523 and 0.522, respectively. Lower and upper 95% limits of agreement were - 0.122 and + 0.124, respectively, with only 4.6% of observations outside the limits. Each 0.1 increase of TELE-MPI score was significantly correlated with higher incidence of psychiatric disorders [odd ratio (OR): 1.57; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27, 1.95] and falls (OR: 1.41; 95% CI 1.08, 1.82) in community-dwelling-older adults. DISCUSSION: TELE-MPI showed a strong agreement with the standard MPI and was able to predict psychiatric disorders and falls during lockdown period. CONCLUSION: TELE-MPI may represent a useful way to follow by remote the health status of older adults.

Multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) predicts successful application for disability social benefits in older people.

AIM: The economic recognition of disability is of importance in daily practice, but the tools used in older people are still limited. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the effectiveness of the multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) to identify frail older subjects to be submitted to civil invalidity application for disability benefits including Attendance Allowance (AA) indemnity, Carer's Leave (Law 104) and/or Parking Card for people with disabilities. METHODS: From March 2018 to January 2019, 80 older people were included. The MPI was calculated from comprehensive geriatric assessment information including eight different domains. Civil benefits included attendance allowance (AA) indemnity by the Local Medico-Legal Committee (MLC-NHS) and by the National Institute of Social Security Committee (INPS), Carer's Leave (Law 104), and Parking Card for people with disabilities. RESULTS: MPI values were associated with an increased probability to obtain a 100% civil disability, AA indemnity, Carer's Leave and a parking card for people with disabilities. MPI score showed a very good accuracy in predicting the civil invalidity benefits with a area-under-curve (AUC) of 87.3 (95% CI 80.6-97.4) to predict the release of AA indemnity, 81.3 (95% CI 68.5-91.1) to predict Care's leave and 70.7 (95% CI 59.4-84.7) to predict the Parking Card release. Moreover, data showed that a cut-off score of MPI ≥ 0.75 could identify the 100% of older subjects who successfully obtained the indemnity release. CONCLUSION: MPI is an excellent predictor of social benefits' release by local and national agencies.

Mortality attributable to COVID-19 in nursing home residents: a retrospective study.

AIM: Coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) is a widespread condition in nursing home (NH). It is not known whether COVID-19 is associated with a higher risk of death than residents without COVID-19. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess whether COVID-19 is associated with a higher mortality rate in NH residents, considering frailty status assessed with the Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI). METHODS: In this retrospective study, made in 31 NHs in Venice, Italy, the presence of COVID-19 was ascertained with a nasopharyngeal swab. Frailty was evaluated using the MPI, modified according to the tools commonly used in our NHs. A Cox's regression analysis was used reporting the results as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), using COVID-19 as exposure and mortality as outcome and stratified by MPI tertiles. Similar analyses were run using MPI tertiles as exposure. RESULTS: Overall, 3946 NH residents (median age = 87 years, females: 73.9%) were eligible, with 1136 COVID-19 + . During a median follow-up of 275 days, higher values of MPI, indicating frailer people, were associated with an increased risk of mortality. The incidence of mortality in COVID-19 + was more than doubled than COVID-19- either in MPI-1, MPI-2 and MPI-3 groups. The presence of COVID-19 increased the risk of death (HR = 1.85; 95% CI 1.59-2.15), also in the propensity score model using MPI as confounder (HR = 2.48; 95% CI 2.10-2.93). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective study of NH residents, COVID-19 was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality than those not affected by COVID-19 also considering the different grades of frailty.

The prognostic signature of health-related quality of life in older patients admitted to the emergency department: a 6-month follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: The management of older and multimorbid patients with complex care requires a personalised and comprehensive approach. The main diagnosis is often registered as the cause of hospitalisation, yet poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL) as well as multimorbidity may represent the underlying cause and markedly influence prognosis. AIMS: To analyse the association of HRQoL and clinical prognosis over time as assessed by a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA)-based Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) in older patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). METHODS: We used data from the prospective MPI-HOPE (Influence of the MPI on the Hospitalisation of Older Patients admitted to the Emergency department) study. Data from 165 patients (≥ 75 years) admitted to the ED of the University Hospital of Cologne, Germany, between Oct 2017 and Jan 2018 were included. Clinical prognosis was calculated by the MPI and HRQoL by the EQ5D-5L. Follow-up interviews assessed HRQoL up to 6 months after discharge. RESULTS: Most patients were multimorbid and presented with several geriatric syndromes. At admission, HRQoL was highest in patients with the best clinical prognosis. The MPI showed a negative correlation with the EQ-Index at admission (rs(86) = - 0.50, p < 0.0001) and follow-up assessments after 3 and 6 months (rs(86) = - 0.55 and rs(86) = - 0.47, p < 0.0001). DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that patients' self-perceived HRQoL in the ED is related to functional health status and clinical prognosis. CONCLUSION: The MPI as a multidimensional snapshot provides information on clinical health indicators and informs about subjective HRQoL, thereby helping in identifying patients who would benefit from a specific treatment within the frame of a patient-centered, value-based care strategy geriatric treatment.

Use of Multiprognostic Index Domain Scores, Clinical Data, and Machine Learning to Improve 12-Month Mortality Risk Prediction in Older Hospitalized Patients: Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The Multidimensional Prognostic Index (MPI) is an aggregate, comprehensive, geriatric assessment scoring system derived from eight domains that predict adverse outcomes, including 12-month mortality. However, the prediction accuracy of using the three MPI categories (mild, moderate, and severe risk) was relatively poor in a study of older hospitalized Australian patients. Prediction modeling using the component domains of the MPI together with additional clinical features and machine learning (ML) algorithms might improve prediction accuracy. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess whether the accuracy of prediction for 12-month mortality using logistic regression with maximum likelihood estimation (LR-MLE) with the 3-category MPI together with age and gender (feature set 1) can be improved with the addition of 10 clinical features (sodium, hemoglobin, albumin, creatinine, urea, urea-to-creatinine ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate, C-reactive protein, BMI, and anticholinergic risk score; feature set 2) and the replacement of the 3-category MPI in feature sets 1 and 2 with the eight separate MPI domains (feature sets 3 and 4, respectively), and to assess the prediction accuracy of the ML algorithms using the same feature sets. METHODS: MPI and clinical features were collected from patients aged 65 years and above who were admitted to either the general medical or acute care of the elderly wards of a South Australian hospital between September 2015 and February 2017. The diagnostic accuracy of LR-MLE was assessed together with nine ML algorithms: decision trees, random forests, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support-vector machines, naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbors, ridge regression, logistic regression without regularization, and neural networks. A 70:30 training set:test set split of the data and a grid search of hyper-parameters with 10-fold cross-validation-was used during model training. The area under the curve was used as the primary measure of accuracy. RESULTS: A total of 737 patients (female: 370/737, 50.2%; male: 367/737, 49.8%) with a median age of 80 (IQR 72-86) years had complete MPI data recorded on admission and had completed the 12-month follow-up. The area under the receiver operating curve for LR-MLE was 0.632, 0.688, 0.738, and 0.757 for feature sets 1 to 4, respectively. The best overall accuracy for the nine ML algorithms was obtained using the XGBoost algorithm (0.635, 0.706, 0.756, and 0.757 for feature sets 1 to 4, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The use of MPI domains with LR-MLE considerably improved the prediction accuracy compared with that obtained using the traditional 3-category MPI. The XGBoost ML algorithm slightly improved accuracy compared with LR-MLE, and adding clinical data improved accuracy. These results build on previous work on the MPI and suggest that implementing risk scores based on MPI domains and clinical data by using ML prediction models can support clinical decision-making with respect to risk stratification for the follow-up care of older hospitalized patients.

Effect of low-dose aspirin on health outcomes: An umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses.

AIMS: This study aimed to use an umbrella review methodology to capture the range of outcomes that were associated with low-dose aspirin and to systematically assess the credibility of this evidence. METHODS: Aspirin is associated with several health outcomes, but the overall benefit/risk balance related to aspirin use is unclear. We searched three major databases up to 15 August 2019 for meta-analyses of observational studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) including low-dose aspirin compared to placebo or other treatments. Based on random-effects summary effect sizes, 95% prediction intervals, heterogeneity, small-study effects and excess significance, significant meta-analyses of observational studies were classified from convincing (class I) to weak (class IV). For meta-analyses of RCTs, outcomes with random effects P-value < .005 and a moderate/high GRADE assessment, were classified as strong evidence. From 6802 hits, 67 meta-analyses (156 outcomes) were eligible. RESULTS: Observational data showed highly suggestive evidence for aspirin use and increased risk of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (RR = 2.28, 95% CI: 1.97-2.64). In RCTs of low-dose aspirin, we observed strong evidence for lower risk of CVD in people without CVD (RR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.79-0.87) and in general population (RR = 0.83; 95% CI: 0.79-0.89), higher risk of major gastrointestinal (RR = 1.47; 95% CI: 1.26-1.72) and intracranial bleeding (RR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.18-1.53), and of major bleedings in people without CVD (RR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.26-2.08). CONCLUSION: Compared to other active medications, low-dose aspirin had strong evidence for lower risk of bleeding, but also lower comparative efficacy. Low-dose aspirin significantly lowers CVD risk and increases risk of bleeding. Evidence for multiple other health outcomes is limited.

Relationship between multidimensional prognostic index and incident depressive symptoms in older people: Findings from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing.

OBJECTIVES: The multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) is a useful prognostic tool for evaluating adverse health outcomes in older individuals. However, the association between MPI and depressive symptoms has never been explored, despite depression being a common condition in older people. We therefore aimed to evaluate whether MPI may predict incident depressive symptoms. METHODS: Longitudinal, cohort study, with 2 years of follow-up (W1: October 2009-February 2011; W2: April 2012-January 2013), including people aged ≥65 years without depressive symptoms at baseline. A comprehensive geriatric assessment including information on functional, nutritional, cognitive status, mobility, comorbidities, medications, and cohabitation status was used to calculate the MPI dividing the participants into low, moderate, or severe risk. Those who scored ≥16/60 with the Center of Epidemiology Studies Depression (CES-D) tool were considered to have depressive symptoms. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to explore the association between MPI and incident depressive symptoms. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 1854 participants (mean age: 72.8 ± SD 5.1 years; females: 52.1%). The prevalence of incident depressive symptoms by MPI tertiles at baseline were: low 2.5%, moderate 3.9%, and severe 6.7%. In multivariable analyses, baseline MPI values were significantly associated with incident depressive symptoms (increase in 0.1 points in MPI: odds ratio, OR = 1.47; 95% confidence intervals, CI: 1.17-1.85; MPI tertile severe vs low: OR = 2.96; 95%CI: 1.50-5.85). CONCLUSION: Baseline MPI values were associated with incident depressive symptoms indicating that multidimensional assessment of older people may lead to early identification of individuals at increased risk of depression onset.