Assessment of structural chromosomal instability phenotypes as biomarkers of carboplatin response in triple negative breast cancer: the TNT trial.

BACKGROUND: In the TNT trial of triple negative breast cancer (NCT00532727), germline BRCA1/2 mutations were present in 28% of carboplatin responders. We assessed quantitative measures of structural chromosomal instability (CIN) to identify a wider patient subgroup within TNT with preferential benefit from carboplatin over docetaxel. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Copy number aberrations (CNAs) were established from 135 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded primary carcinomas using Illumina OmniExpress SNP-arrays. Seven published [allelic imbalanced CNA (AiCNA); allelic balanced CNA (AbCNA); copy number neutral loss of heterozygosity (CnLOH); number of telomeric allelic imbalances (NtAI); BRCA1-like status; percentage of genome altered (PGA); homologous recombination deficiency (HRD) scores] and two novel [Shannon diversity index (SI); high-level amplifications (HLAMP)] CIN-measurements were derived. HLAMP was defined based on the presence of at least one of the top 5% amplified cytobands located on 1q, 8q and 10p. Continuous CIN-measurements were divided into tertiles. All nine CIN-measurements were used to analyse objective response rate (ORR) and progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS: Patients with tumours without HLAMP had a numerically higher ORR and significantly longer PFS in the carboplatin (C) than in the docetaxel (D) arm [56% (C) versus 29% (D), PHLAMP,quiet = 0.085; PFS 6.1 months (C) versus 4.1 months (D), Pinteraction/HLAMP = 0.047]. In the carboplatin arm, patients with tumours showing intermediate telomeric NtAI and AiCNA had higher ORR [54% (C) versus 20% (D), PNtAI,intermediate = 0.03; 62% (C) versus 33% (D), PAiCNA,intermediate = 0.076]. Patients with high AiCNA and PGA had shorter PFS in the carboplatin arm [3.4 months (high) versus 5.7 months (low/intermediate); and 3.8 months (high) versus 5.6 months (low/intermediate), respectively; Pinteraction/AiCNA = 0.027, Padj.interaction/AiCNA = 0.125 and Pinteraction/PGA = 0.053, Padj.interaction/PGA = 0.176], whilst no difference was observed in the docetaxel arm. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with tumours lacking HLAMP and demonstrating intermediate CIN-measurements formed a subgroup benefitting from carboplatin relative to docetaxel treatment within the TNT trial. This suggests a complex and paradoxical relationship between the extent of genomic instability in primary tumours and treatment response in the metastatic setting.

High-intensity focused ultrasound in the treatment of breast fibroadenomata (HIFU-F trial).

BACKGROUND: High-intensity focussed ultrasound (HIFU) is a non-invasive ablative technique utilising the application of high frequency ultrasound (US) pressure waves to cause tissue necrosis. This emerging technology is currently limited by prolonged treatment times. The aim of the HIFU-F trial was to perform circumferential HIFU treatment as a means of shortening treatment times. METHODS: A prospective trial was set up to treat 50 consecutive patients ≥18 years of age. Eligible patients possessed symptomatic fibroadenomata, visible on US. Patients ≥25 years of age required histological confirmation of the diagnosis. Primary outcome measures were reduction in treatment time, reduction in volume on US after 12 months and complication rates. RESULTS: HIFU treatment was performed in 51 patients (53 treatments) with a mean age of 29.8 years (SD 7.2 years) and a diameter of 2.6 cm (SD 1.4 cm). Circumferential ablation reduced treatment times by an estimated 19.9 min (SD 25.1 min), which is a 29.4% (SD 15.2%) reduction compared with whole lesion ablation. Volume reduction of 43.2% (SD 35.4%; p < 0.005, paired t-test) was observed on US at 12 months post-treatment. Local complications completely resolved at 1 month apart from skin hyper-pigmentation, which persisted in nine cases at three months, six cases at 6 months and six at 12 months. CONCLUSION: Circumferential HIFU treatment for breast fibroadenomata is feasible to reduce both lesion size and treatment time. HIFU is a non-invasive alternative technique for the treatment of breast fibroadenomata. ISRCTN registration: 76622747.

The importance of histological assessment after neoadjuvant therapy and the need for standardisation.

Neoadjuvant therapy is increasingly being recognised as a management option for patients with primary invasive breast carcinoma; this may take the form of primary endocrine treatment or primary chemotherapy. Surgical specimens from women treated with neoadjuvant treatments, particularly primary chemotherapy, may cause a challenge for the histopathologist in handling and interpretation and have, in the past, been sampled, evaluated, and reported in a non-standardised way. This limits comparison between clinical trials and potentially provides clinicians and patients with suboptimal prognostic information. We describe here some of the difficulties faced and the recommendations and standards now applied.

NHS Breast Screening multidisciplinary working group guidelines for the diagnosis and management of breast lesions of uncertain malignant potential on core biopsy (B3 lesions).

Needle core biopsy is considered the histological diagnostic method of choice for screen-detected breast lesions. Although the majority are definitively diagnosed as normal, benign, or malignant, approximately 7% are categorised as B3, of uncertain malignant potential. These include a wide range of lesions with different risks of associated malignancy from <2% to approaching 40% from literature review in UK practice. Historically, these have typically been surgically excised as a diagnostic procedure but the majority are then proven to be benign. An alternative approach, for many of these lesions, is thorough sampling/excision by vacuum-assisted biopsy techniques to exclude the presence of co-existing carcinoma. This would potentially reduce the benign open biopsy rate whilst maintaining accuracy of cancer diagnosis. A group from the Radiology, Surgery, and Pathology NHS Breast Screening Programme Co-ordinating Committees and an additional co-opted expert were charged with review and development of guidelines for the clinical management of B3 lesions. The guidelines reflect suggested practice as stated by the NHS Breast Screening Programme and approved by the Royal College of Radiologists.

Discrepancies in central review re-testing of patients with ER-positive and HER2-negative breast cancer in the OPTIMA prelim randomised clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: There is limited data on results of central re-testing of samples from patients with invasive breast cancer categorised in their local hospital laboratories as oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and human epidermal growth factor receptor homologue 2 (HER2) negative. METHODS: The Optimal Personalised Treatment of early breast cancer usIng Multiparameter Analysis preliminary study (OPTIMA prelim) was the feasibility phase of a randomised controlled trial to validate the use of multiparameter assay-directed chemotherapy decisions in the UK National Health Service (NHS). Eligibility criteria included ER positivity and HER2 negativity. Central re-testing of receptor status was mandatory. RESULTS: Of the 431 patients tested centrally, discrepant results between central and local laboratory results were identified in only 19 (4.4%; 95% confidence interval 2.5-6.3%) patients (with 21 tumours). On central review, seven patients had cancers that were ER-negative (1.6%) and 13 (3.0%) patients with 15 tumours had HER2-positive disease, including one tumour discrepant for both biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: Central re-testing of receptor status of invasive breast cancers in the UK NHS setting shows a high level of reproducibility in categorising tumours as ER-positive and HER2-negative, and raises questions regarding the cost effectiveness and clinical value of central re-testing in this sub-group of breast cancers in this setting.

High intensity focused ultrasound in the treatment of breast fibroadenomata: results of the HIFU-F trial.

OBJECTIVES: Breast fibroadenomata (FAD) are the most common breast lumps in women. High intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) is a non-invasive ablative technique that can be used to treat FAD but is associated with prolonged treatment times. In the HIFU-F trial, we evaluated the change in volume over time with circumferential HIFU treatment of FAD and compared this to no treatment. METHODS: Patients ≥18 years, diagnosed with symptomatic, palpable FAD, visible on ultrasound (US) were recruited. Twenty patients were treated using US-guided HIFU under local anaesthesia. Another 20 participants underwent an US 6 months after diagnosis. Outcome measures included: reduction in treatment time compared to whole lesion ablation; feasibility to achieve a 50% reduction in volume after 6 months; decrease in volume compared to a control group and reduction in symptoms. RESULTS: Circumferential ablation reduced the mean treatment time by 37.5% (SD 20.1%) compared to whole lesion ablation. US demonstrated a significant mean reduction in FAD volume of 43.5% (SD 38.8%; p = 0.016, paired t-test) in the HIFU group compared to 4.6% (SD 46.0%; p = 0.530) in the control group after 6 months. This mean reduction in FAD volume between the two groups was significant in favour of the HIFU group (p = 0.002, grouped t-test). Pre-treatment pain completely resolved in 6 out of 8 patients 6 months post-treatment. CONCLUSION: Circumferential HIFU ablation of FAD is feasible, with a significant reduction in pain and volume compared to control participants. It provides a simple, non-invasive, outpatient-based alternative to surgical excision for FAD.

Residual proliferative cancer burden to predict long-term outcome following neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was (i) to test the hypothesis that combining Ki67 with residual cancer burden (RCB) following neoadjuvant chemotherapy, as the residual proliferative cancer burden (RPCB), provides significantly more prognostic information than either alone; (ii) to determine whether also integrating information on ER and grade improves prognostic power. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 220 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy for primary breast cancer were included in the study. Analyses employed a Cox proportional hazard model. Prognostic indices (PIs) were created adding in Ki67, grade and ER to RCB. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to reduce bias. The overall change in χ(2) of the best model for each index was used to compare the prognostic ability of the different indices. RESULTS: All PIs provided significant prognostic information for patients with residual disease following neoadjuvant chemotherapy. RPCB (χ(2) = 61.4) was significantly more prognostic than either RCB (χ(2) = 38.1) or Ki67 (χ(2) = 53.8) alone P < 0.001. A PI incorporating RCB, Ki67 grade and ER provided the most prognostic information overall and gave χ(2) = 73.8. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides proof of principle that the addition of post-treatment Ki67 to RCB improves the prediction of long-term outcome. Prediction may be further improved by addition of post-treatment grade and ER and warrants further investigation for estimating post-neoadjuvant risk of recurrence. These indices may have utility in stratifying patients for novel therapeutic interventions after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Systematic review of high-intensity focused ultrasound ablation in the treatment of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A systematic review was undertaken to assess the clinical efficacy of non-invasive high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) ablation in the treatment of breast cancer. METHODS: MEDLINE/PubMed library databases were used to identify all studies published up to December 2013 that evaluated the role of HIFU ablation in the treatment of breast cancer. Studies were eligible if they were performed on patients with breast cancer and objectively recorded at least one clinical outcome measure of response (imaging, histopathological or cosmetic) to HIFU treatment. RESULTS: Nine studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The absence of tumour or residual tumour after treatment was reported for 95·8 per cent of patients (160 of 167). No residual tumour was found in 46·2 per cent (55 of 119; range 17-100 per cent), less than 10 per cent residual tumour in 29·4 per cent (35 of 119; range 0-53 per cent), and between 10 and 90 per cent residual tumour in 22·7 per cent (27 of 119; range 0-60 per cent). The most common complication associated with HIFU ablation was pain (40·1 per cent) and less frequently oedema (16·8 per cent), skin burn (4·2 per cent) and pectoralis major injury (3·6 per cent). MRI showed an absence of contrast enhancement after treatment in 82 per cent of patients (31 of 38; range 50-100 per cent), indicative of coagulative necrosis. Correlation of contrast enhancement on pretreatment and post-treatment MRI successfully predicted the presence of residual disease. CONCLUSION: HIFU treatment can induce coagulative necrosis in breast cancers. Complete ablation has not been reported consistently on histopathology and no imaging modality has been able confidently to predict the percentage of complete ablation. Consistent tumour and margin necrosis with reliable follow-up imaging are required before HIFU ablation can be evaluated within large, prospective clinical trials.

Germline CDH1 mutations in bilateral lobular carcinoma in situ.

BACKGROUND: Invasive lobular breast cancer (ILC) and lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS) are characterised by loss of E-cadherin expression. However germline CDH1 mutations are rare in cases of ILC with no family history of hereditary diffuse gastric cancer (HDGC) and have not been described in women with LCIS. METHODS: We screened the CDH1 gene in 50 cases of bilateral LCIS/ILC using Sanger sequencing and MLPA. RESULTS: Sanger sequencing revealed four pathogenic germline mutations, including a novel splicing mutation (c.48+1G>A). The remaining three (c.1465insC, c.1942G>T, c.2398delC) have been previously described. All four cases had bilateral LCIS +/- ILC and no family history of gastric cancer. CONCLUSION: CDH1 germline mutations have not been previously described in women with LCIS. We have shown that germline CDH1 mutations are associated with early onset of bilateral LCIS with or without ILC in women without a family history of gastric cancer. CDH1 mutation screening should be considered in women with early onset of bilateral LCIS/ILC with no family history of HDGC.

Assessment of microtubule-associated protein (MAP)-Tau expression as a predictive and prognostic marker in TACT; a trial assessing substitution of sequential docetaxel for FEC as adjuvant chemotherapy for early breast cancer.

The TACT trial is the largest study assessing the benefit of taxanes as part of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer. The goal of this translational study was to clarify the predictive and prognostic value of Tau within the TACT trial. Tissue microarrays (TMA) were available from 3,610 patients. ER, PR, HER2 from the TACT trial and Tau protein expression was determined by immunohistochemistry on duplicate TMAs. Two parallel scoring systems were generated for Tau expression ('dichotomised' vs. 'combined' score). The positivity rate of Tau expression was 50 % in the trial population (n = 2,483). Tau expression correlated positively with ER (p < 0.001) and PR status (p < 0.001); but negatively with histological grade (p < 0.001) and HER2 status (p < 0.001). Analyses with either scoring systems for Tau expression demonstrated no significant interaction between Tau expression and efficacy of docetaxel. Contrary to the hypothesis that taxane benefit would be enriched in Tau negative/low patients, the only groups with a suggestion of a reduced event rate in the taxane group were the HER2-positive, Tau positive subgroups. Tau expression was seen to be a prognostic factor on univariate analysis associated with an improved DFS, independent of the treatment group (p < 0.001). It had no prognostic value in ER-negative tumours and the weak prognostic effect of Tau in ER-positive tumours (p = 0.02) diminished, when considering ER as an ordinal variable. On multivariable analyses, Tau had no prognostic value in either group. In addition, no significant interaction between Tau expression and benefit from docetaxel in patients within the PR-positive and negative subsets was seen. This is now the second large adjuvant study, and the first with quantitative analysis of ER and Tau expression, failing to show an association between Tau and taxane benefit with limited utility as a prognostic marker for Tau in ER-positive early breast cancer patients.

A randomised trial of primary tamoxifen versus mastectomy plus adjuvant tamoxifen in fit elderly women with invasive breast carcinoma of high oestrogen receptor content: long-term results at 20 years of follow-up.

BACKGROUND: Long-term analysis of a randomised trial in Nottingham comparing tamoxifen versus surgery as initial treatment demonstrated that in oestrogen receptor (ER)-unselected cases, surgery achieved better local control, with no difference in overall survival. It was suggested that for patients with ER-rich tumours, local control and survival may be comparable. We now present long-term follow-up of a randomised trial designed to address this clinical scenario. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One hundred and fifty three fit elderly (≥70 years) women with clinically node-negative primary invasive breast carcinoma <5 cm of high ER content [histochemical (H) score ≥100] were randomised 2:1 to primary tamoxifen (Tam) (N = 100) or mastectomy with adjuvant tamoxifen (Mx + Tam) (N = 53). RESULTS: With median follow-up of 78 months, there was no statistically significant difference in 10-year rates of regional recurrence (9.0% versus 7.5%), metastasis (8.0% versus 13.2%), breast cancer-specific survival (89.0% versus 86.8%) or overall survival (64.0% versus 66.0%) between Tam and Mx + Tam; however, local control was inferior with Tam (local failure rates 43.0% versus 1.9%; P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Irrespective of the degree of ER positivity, surgery achieved better local control. However, there was excellent and similar survival in both groups. Tam could be considered in those who are 'frail', refuse or prefer not to initially undergo surgery.

A new pathological system for grading DCIS with improved prediction of local recurrence: results from the UKCCCR/ANZ DCIS trial.

BACKGROUND: There is no consensus agreement regarding optimal management of locally excised ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) or features of greatest assistance in predicting disease behaviour. Cases in the UKCCCR/ANZ DCIS trial have been histologically reviewed to determine the features of prognostic importance. METHOD: A total of 72% of 1694 cases entered into the UKCCCR/ANZ DCIS trial had full pathological review. A large number of histological features were assessed, blinded to outcome and compared regarding ability to predict ipsilateral recurrence, as either DCIS or progression to invasive carcinoma. RESULTS: Pathological features associated with ipsilateral recurrence in univariate analysis included high cytonuclear grade, larger lesion size, growth pattern, presence of necrosis or chronic inflammation, incompleteness (or uncertainty of completeness) of excision and smaller margin width. Receipt of post-operative radiotherapy was also a strong prognostic factor.We report a novel sub-division of the large group of high-grade lesions, which enables identification of a very poor prognosis sub-group; namely, DCIS that is of high cytonuclear grade, predominantly (>50%) solid architecture, bearing extensive comedo-type necrosis (>50% of ducts). In addition, we found little difference in ipsilateral recurrence rates between low- and intermediate-grade groups. Hazard ratios for low, intermediate, high and the new, very high, grade were 0.42, 0.33, 0.62 and 1.00, respectively, for ipsilateral in situ or invasive recurrence. CONCLUSION: We present a novel pathological classification for DCIS with substantially better prognostic discrimination for ipsilateral recurrence than the classical categorisation based on cytonuclear grade alone.

Radiological and pathological size estimations of pure ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast, specimen handling and the influence on the success of breast conservation surgery: a review of 2564 cases from the Sloane Project.

BACKGROUND: The Sloane Project, an audit of UK screen-detected non-invasive carcinomas and atypical hyperplasias of the breast, has accrued over 5000 cases in 5 years; with paired radiological and pathological data for 2564 ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) cases at the point of this analysis. We have compared the radiological estimate of DCIS size with the pathological estimate of DCIS size. We have correlated these sizes with histological grade, specimen-handling methods, particularly the use of specimen slice radiographs, and the success or failure of breast-conserving surgery (BCS). METHODS: The Sloane Project database was interrogated to extract information on all patients diagnosed with DCIS with complete radiological and pathological data on the size of DCIS, nuclear grade, specimen handling (with particular reference to specimen radiographs) and whether primary BCS was successful or whether the patient required further conservation surgery or a mastectomy. RESULTS: Of 2564 patients in the study, 2013 (79%) had attempted BCS and 1430 (71%) had a successful single operation. Of the 583 BCS patients who required further surgery, 65% had successful conservation and 97% of them after a single further operation. In successful one-operation BCS patients, there was a close agreement between radiological and pathological DCIS size with radiology tending to marginally overestimate the disease extent. In multiple-operation BCS, radiology underestimated DCIS size in 59% of cases. The agreement between pathological and radiological size of DCIS was poor in mastectomies but was improved by specimen slice radiography, suggesting specimen-handling techniques as a cause. CONCLUSION: In 30% of patients undergoing BCS for DCIS, preoperative imaging underestimates the extent of disease resulting in a requirement for further surgery. This has implications for the further improvement of preoperative imaging and non-operative diagnosis of DCIS so that second operations are reduced to a minimum.

Lesion size is a major determinant of the mammographic features of ductal carcinoma in situ: findings from the Sloane project.

AIM: To assess the radiological features of calcific ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) in a large, multicentre dataset according to grade and size, and to investigate the possibility that DCIS has different mammographic features when small. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The dataset consisted of all Sloane Project DCIS cases where calcification was present mammographically and histological grade and size were available. The radiology data form classifies calcific DCIS as casting/linear, granular/irregular, or punctate. The pathology dataset includes cytonuclear grade and microscopic tumour size. Correlations were sought between the radiological findings and DCIS grade and size. The significance of differences was assessed using the chi-square test and chi-square test for trend. RESULTS: One thousand, seven hundred and eighty-three cases were included in the study. Of these, 1128, 485, and 170 had high, intermediate, and low-grade DCIS, respectively. Casting calcification was more frequently seen the higher the grade of DCIS, occurring in 58% of high grade, 38% of intermediate grade, and 26% of low-grade cases, respectively (p<0.001). Casting calcification was also increasingly common with increasing lesion size, irrespective of the histological grade (p<0.001). Thus casting calcifications in small (<10mm) high-grade DCIS lesions were seen with a similar frequency (50%) to those in moderate-sized (21-30 mm) intermediate-grade lesions (48%), and to those in large (>30 mm) low-grade lesions (46%). CONCLUSION: Lesion size has a strong influence on the radiological features of calcific DCIS; small, high-grade lesions often show no casting calcifications, whereas casting calcifications are seen in nearly half of large, low-grade lesions. As small clusters of punctate or granular calcifications may represent high-grade DCIS, an aggressive clinical approach to the diagnosis of such lesions is recommended as the adequate treatment of high-grade DCIS will prevent the occurrence of potentially life-threatening high-grade invasive disease.

Neoadjuvant chemotherapy in patients with breast cancer: Does response in the breast predict axillary node response?

INTRODUCTION: Determining the extent of residual disease in the breast and axilla following neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) is vital for surgical planning. Traditionally patients with incomplete radiological response in the breast after NACT undergo axillary node clearance, regardless of axillary clinical and radiological response. The aim of this study was to determine whether radiological and/or pathological response in the breast to NACT were predictive of axillary response. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients with operable breast cancer with histologically proven axillary lymph node involvement who received NACT and underwent definitive surgical treatment between 1/1/2016 and 31/12/2018 were included. All had MRI and/or US of the breast and axilla before, mid-treatment and at the end of NACT. RESULTS: The 83 patients had a median age of 50 years (range 25-77). MRI had a positive predictive value (PPV) of 52.6% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 81.8% for breast pathological complete response (pCR). For axillary pCR, US had a PPV of 60.0% and NPV of 89.6%. Only 71% of patients had radiological concordance; 15.9% had radiological complete response (rCR) in breast and axilla whilst 55.1% had neither breast nor axillary rCR. 85.6% of patients had pathological concordance (20.5% with breast and axillary pCR: 65.1% with residual disease in both). CONCLUSION: Radiological and pathological response in the breast to NACT does not accurately predict axillary response. The axilla and the breast should be viewed and assessed as two separate entities for treatment plans.

A gene-expression signature to predict survival in breast cancer across independent data sets.

Prognostic signatures in breast cancer derived from microarray expression profiling have been reported by two independent groups. These signatures, however, have not been validated in external studies, making clinical application problematic. We performed microarray expression profiling of 135 early-stage tumors, from a cohort representative of the demographics of breast cancer. Using a recently proposed semisupervised method, we identified a prognostic signature of 70 genes that significantly correlated with survival (hazard ratio (HR): 5.97, 95% confidence interval: 3.0-11.9, P = 2.7e-07). In multivariate analysis, the signature performed independently of other standard prognostic classifiers such as the Nottingham Prognostic Index and the 'Adjuvant!' software. Using two different prognostic classification schemes and measures, nearest centroid (HR) and risk ordering (D-index), the 70-gene classifier was also found to be prognostic in two independent external data sets. Overall, the 70-gene set was prognostic in our study and the two external studies which collectively include 715 patients. In contrast, we found that the two previously described prognostic gene sets performed less optimally in external validation. Finally, a common prognostic module of 29 genes that associated with survival in both our cohort and the two external data sets was identified. In spite of these results, further studies that profile larger cohorts using a single microarray platform, will be needed before prospective clinical use of molecular classifiers can be contemplated.

Using array-comparative genomic hybridization to define molecular portraits of primary breast cancers.

We analysed 148 primary breast cancers using BAC-arrays containing 287 clones representing cancer-related gene/loci to obtain genomic molecular portraits. Gains were detected in 136 tumors (91.9%) and losses in 123 tumors (83.1%). Eight tumors (5.4%) did not have any genomic aberrations in the 281 clones analysed. Common (more than 15% of the samples) gains were observed at 8q11-qtel, 1q21-qtel, 17q11-q12 and 11q13, whereas common losses were observed at 16q12-qtel, 11ptel-p15.5, 1p36-ptel, 17p11.2-p12 and 8ptel-p22. Patients with tumors registering either less than 5% (median value) or less than 11% (third quartile) total copy number changes had a better overall survival (log-rank test: P=0.0417 and P=0.0375, respectively). Unsupervised hierarchical clustering based on copy number changes identified four clusters. Women with tumors from the cluster with amplification of three regions containing known breast oncogenes (11q13, 17q12 and 20q13) had a worse prognosis. The good prognosis group (Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI)

A model for predicting non-sentinel lymph node metastatic disease when the sentinel lymph node is positive.

BACKGROUND: Women with axillary sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancer usually undergo completion axillary lymph node dissection (ALND). However, not all patients with positive SLNs have further axillary nodal disease. Therefore, in the patients with low risk of further disease, completion ALND could be avoided. The Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) developed a nomogram to estimate the risk of non-SLN disease. This study critically appraised the nomogram and refined the model to improve predictive accuracy. METHODS: The MSKCC nomogram was applied to 118 patients with a positive axillary SLN biopsy who subsequently had completion ALND. Predictive accuracy was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve. A further predictive model was developed using more detailed pathological information. Backward stepwise multiple logistic regression was used to develop the predictive model for further axillary lymph node disease. This was then converted to a probability score. After k-fold cross-validation within the data, an inverse variance weighted mean ROC curve and area below the ROC curve was calculated. RESULTS: The MSKCC nomogram had an area under the ROC curve of 68 per cent. The revised predictive model showed the weighted mean area under the ROC curve to be 84 per cent. CONCLUSION: The modified predictive model, which incorporated size of SLN metastasis, improved predictive accuracy, although further testing on an independent data set is desirable.

Proliferation markers and survival in early breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 85 studies in 32,825 patients.

We have performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of proliferation markers (Ki-67, mitotic index (MI), proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PCNA) and thymidine or bromodeoxyuridine labelling index (LI)) with respect to survival in early breast cancer. Eighty-five studies involving 32,825 patients were analysed. Ki-67 (43 studies, 15,790 patients), MI (20 studies, 7021 patients), and LI (11 studies, 7337 patients) were associated with significantly shorter overall and disease free survival, using results from univariate and multivariate analyses from the individual studies. PCNA (11 studies, 2677 patients) was associated with shorter overall survival by multivariate analysis only, because of lack of data. There was some evidence for publication bias, but all markers remained significant after allowing for this. Ki-67, MI, PCNA and LI are associated with worse survival outcomes in early breast cancer. However, whether these proliferation markers provide additional prognostic information to commonly used prognostic indices remains unclear.

Reading the prognosis of the individual with breast cancer.

AIM: To obtain better survival estimates for the individual than is provided by placement in an NPI group. METHOD: Consecutive primary operable breast cancers treated at Nottingham City Hospital 1990-1999. Ten year % actuarial survivals plotted for 10 ranges of NPI from 2.0 to 6.9. There is an excellent inverse correlation between median NPI value for each range and survival at 10 years. To enable estimation of survival for all individual values of NPI, a curve fitting technique applied to these results (by G.B.) gave the formula to estimate survival from the individual's NPI score: 10 year % survival for the individual=-3.0079 x NPI(2)+12.30 x NPI+83.84. This gave an r(2) of 0.98. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Greater accuracy in individual survival prediction is obtained by dividing women into 10 groups by NPI scores than in the originally described six groups; rank order of survival in relation to NPI score is preserved. A curve fitting technique has been applied to these data to give a formula for the prediction of 10 year survival for every 0.1 value of NPI.