Simulating Soil Organic Carbon Responses to Cropping Intensity, Tillage, and Climate Change in Pacific Northwest Dryland.

Managing dryland cropping systems to increase soil organic C (SOC) under changing climate is challenging after decades of winter wheat ( L.)-fallow and moldboard plow tillage (W-F/MP). The objective was to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, and SOC data collected in 2004, 2008, and 2012 to predict the best management to increase SOC under changing climate in four cropping systems, which included continuous wheat under no tillage (W-W/NT), wheat and sorghum × sudangrass [ (L.) Moench. × L.] under no tillage, wheat-fallow under sweep tillage, and W-F/MP. Since future yields and climate are uncertain, 20 scenarios for each cropping system were simulated with four climate projections and five crop yield scenarios (current crop yields, and 10 or 30% greater or lesser yields). Measured and simulated SOC were significantly ( < 0.0001) correlated ( = 0.98) at all soil depths. Predicted SOC changes ranged from -12.03 to 2.56 Mg C ha in the 1-m soil depth for W-F/MP and W-W/NT, respectively, during the 2012 to 2052 predictive period. Only W-W/NT sequestered SOC at a rate of 0.06 Mg C ha yr under current crop yields and climate. Under climate change and yield scenarios, W-W/NT lost SOC except with a 30% wheat yield increase for 40 yr. Predicted SOC increases in W-W/NT were 0.71, 1.16, and 0.88 Mg C ha under the Oregon Climate Assessment Reports for low emissions and high emissions and the Regional Climate Model version 3 with boundary conditions from the Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model, respectively, with 30% yield increases. Continuous no-till cropping would increase SOC and improve soil health and resiliency to lessen the impact of extreme weather.

Implications of Observed and Simulated Soil Carbon Sequestration for Management Options in Corn-based Rotations.

Managing cropping systems to sequester soil organic C (SOC) improves soil health and resilience to changing climate. Perennial crops, no-till planting, manure, and cover crops can add SOC; however, their impacts have not been well documented in the northeastern United States. Our objectives were (i) to monitor SOC from a bioenergy cropping study in Pennsylvania that included a corn ( L.)-soybean [ (L.) Merr.]-alfalfa ( L.) rotation, switchgrass ( L.), and reed canarygrass ( L.); (ii) to use the CQESTR model to predict SOC sequestration in the bioenergy crops (with and without projected climate change); and (iii) to use CQESTR to simulate influence of tillage, manure, cover cropping, and corn stover removal in typical dairy forage (silage corn-alfalfa) or grain corn-soybean rotations. Over 8 yr, measured SOC increased 0.4, 1.1, and 0.8 Mg C ha yr in the bioenergy rotation, reed canarygrass, and switchgrass, respectively. Simulated and measured data were significantly correlated ( < 0.001) at all depths. Predicted sequestration (8-14 Mg C ha over 40 yr) in dairy forage rotations was much larger than with corn-soybean rotations (-4.0-0.6 Mg C ha over 40 yr), due to multiple years of perennial alfalfa. No-till increased sequestration in the simulated dairy forage rotation and prevented a net loss of C in corn-soybean rotations. Simulations indicated limited impact of cover crops and manure on long-term SOC sequestration. The low solids content of liquid dairy manure is the likely reason for the less-than-expected impact of manure. Overall, simulations suggest that inclusion of alfalfa provides the greatest potential for SOC sequestration with a typical Pennsylvania crop rotation.