Genetic evaluation for stillbirth and pre-weaning mortality in Australian dairy cattle.

The welfare of calves is important to both farmers and consumers. Practices that increase the proportion of calves born alive and enable them to thrive through to weaning contribute to improved sustainability. Stillbirths (SB) are calvings where the calf dies at birth or within 24 h after birth. Pre-weaning mortality (PWM) refers to calves that die after the first day of life but before weaning based on termination data. Both SB and PWM are binary traits characterized by low heritability. Data collection for these traits is incomplete, compared with traits like milk yield in cows. Despite these challenges, genetic variation can be measured and used to produce breeding tools, such as estimated breeding values (EBV), to reduce calf mortality over time. The aim of this study was to compare the performance of various linear models to predict SB and PWM traits in Holstein and Jersey cattle and evaluate their applicability for industry-wide use in the Australian dairy industry. Calving records from around 2.25 million Holstein and Jersey dams were obtained from DataGene's Central Data Repository from 2000 onwards to calculate genetic parameters. About 7% of calves were recorded as stillborn in the period 2000-2021 (n = 1.48 million calvings). The prevalence of PWM was much lower than stillbirth during the same period at 2% (n = 0.89 million calves). Genetic parameters were estimated for SB direct, SB maternal and PWM using bivariate linear models with calving ease (CE) as the second trait in the model. The heritability of these calf traits was low and varied between 1 to 5% depending on the breed, trait and model. In Holstein cattle, heritabilities were 2% for PWM and SB direct and 1% for SB maternal while in Jersey cattle heritabilities were 5% for PWM, 2% for SB direct and 1% for SB maternal. The genetic trends for both SB direct and maternal in Holstein cattle indicate improvement in both traits whereas there was no apparent increase or decrease in PWM in the past 2 decades. The coefficient of genetic variation for SB direct and PWM was between 11.7 and 23.0% in Holstein and Jersey cattle demonstrating that there was considerable genetic variation in calf survival traits as a first step to using genetic selection to increase the proportion of calves born alive and calves weaned. A focus on improved calf and calving recording practices is expected to increase the reliability of genetic predictions.

Imputation accuracy and carrier frequency of deleterious recessive defects in Australian dairy cattle.

Widespread genotyping has enabled the identification of putative recessive mutations that affect fertility through early embryonic fetal loss, or compromise neonate or calf viability. The use of artificial insemination in the global dairy population can rapidly spread these harmful mutations, and testing for multiple mutations can become relatively expensive if not all tests are available on the same SNP panel. However, it is possible to provide heifer and cow predicted carrier status to farmers at no additional cost if the animals are genotyped with a standard SNP panel. Additionally, for defects where the causal mutation is unknown, but a haplotype of markers has been associated with the defect, the carrier status can be predicted based on that haplotype. The aims of this study were 3-fold: 1) to determine the accuracy of imputation of putative causal mutations for recessive deleterious conditions in Australian dairy cattle, 2) to impute carrier status for known recessive deleterious conditions in all genotyped Australian Holstein, Jersey and Red breed cows, and 3) to determine the changes in carrier frequencies across time for these recessive deleterious mutations. We used the F1 statistic, combining precision and recall, to assess the accuracy of carrier status prediction. We showed that known deleterious mutations can be accurately imputed in Australian Holstein and Jersey cattle that are not directly genotyped for the causal mutation, with F1 ranging between 0.88 and 0.99. For recessive deleterious conditions not included on the standard Australian SNP panel, carrier status could be predicted using a marker haplotype, with F1 ranging from 0.91 to 0.92. Most putative causals and haplotypes were either stable with a low carrier percentage or had a declining carrier percentage. However, several recessive mutations showed a relatively high or increasing percentage, highlighting the importance of detecting carriers to reduce the number of at risk matings. Furthermore, the high carrier percentage of the recently identified Bovine Lymphocyte Intestinal Retention Defect (BLIRD) mutation emphasizes the importance of detection of novel mutations.

Genome-wide association study of age at puberty and its (co)variances with fertility and stature in growing and lactating Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle.

Reproductive performance is a key determinant of cow longevity in a pasture-based, seasonal dairy system. Unfortunately, direct fertility phenotypes such as intercalving interval or pregnancy rate tend to have low heritabilities and occur relatively late in an animal's life. In contrast, age at puberty (AGEP) is a moderately heritable, early-in-life trait that may be estimated using an animal's age at first measured elevation in blood plasma progesterone (AGEP4) concentrations. Understanding the genetic architecture of AGEP4 in addition to genetic relationships between AGEP4 and fertility traits in lactating cows is important, as is its relationship with body size in the growing animal. Thus, the objectives of this research were 3-fold. First, to estimate the genetic and phenotypic (co)variances between AGEP4 and subsequent fertility during first and second lactations. Second, to quantify the associations between AGEP4 and height, length, and BW measured when animals were approximately 11 mo old (standard deviation = 0.5). Third, to identify genomic regions that are likely to be associated with variation in AGEP4. We measured AGEP4, height, length, and BW in approximately 5,000 Holstein-Friesian or Holstein-Friesian × Jersey crossbred yearling heifers across 54 pasture-based herds managed in seasonal calving farm systems. We also obtained calving rate (CR42, success or failure to calve within the first 42 d of the seasonal calving period), breeding rate (PB21, success or failure to be presented for breeding within the first 21 d of the seasonal breeding period) and pregnancy rate (PR42, success or failure to become pregnant within the first 42 d of the seasonal breeding period) phenotypes from their first and second lactations. The animals were genotyped using the Weatherby's Versa 50K SNP array (Illumina, San Diego, CA). The estimated heritabilities of AGEP4, height, length, and BW were 0.34 (90% credibility interval [CRI]: 0.30, 0.37), 0.28 (90% CRI: 0.25, 0.31), 0.21 (90% CRI: 0.18, 0.23), and 0.33 (90% CRI: 0.30, 0.36), respectively. In contrast, the heritabilities of CR42, PB21 and PR42 were all <0.05 in both first and second lactations. The genetic correlations between AGEP4 and these fertility traits were generally moderate, ranging from 0.11 to 0.60, whereas genetic correlations between AGEP4 and yearling body-conformation traits ranged from 0.02 to 0.28. Our GWAS highlighted a genomic window on chromosome 5 that was strongly associated with variation in AGEP4. We also identified 4 regions, located on chromosomes 14, 6, 1, and 11 (in order of decreasing importance), that exhibited suggestive associations with AGEP4. Our results show that AGEP4 is a reasonable predictor of estimated breeding values for fertility traits in lactating cows. Although the GWAS provided insights into genetic mechanisms underpinning AGEP4, further work is required to test genomic predictions of fertility that use this information.

Genome-wide association study of anogenital distance and its (co)variances with fertility in growing and lactating Holstein-Friesian dairy cattle.

Anogenital distance (AGD) is a moderately heritable trait that can be measured at a young age that may provide an opportunity to indirectly select for improved fertility in dairy cattle. In this study, we characterized AGD and its genetic and phenotypic relationships with a range of body stature and fertility traits. We measured AGD, shoulder height, body length, and body weight in a population of 5,010 Holstein-Friesian and Holstein-Friesian × Jersey crossbred heifers at approximately 11 mo of age (AGD1). These animals were born in 2018 across 54 seasonal calving, pasture-based dairy herds. A second measure of AGD was collected in a subset of herds (n = 17; 1,956 animals) when the animals averaged 29 mo of age (AGD2). Fertility measures included age at puberty (AGEP), then time of calving, breeding, and pregnancy during the first and second lactations. We constructed binary traits reflecting the animal's ability to calve during the first 42 d of their herd's seasonal calving period (CR42), be presented for breeding during the first 21 d of the seasonal breeding period (PB21) and become pregnant during the first 42 d of the seasonal breeding period (PR42). The posterior mean of sampled heritabilities for AGD1 was 0.23, with 90% of samples falling within a credibility interval (90% CRI) of 0.20 to 0.26, whereas the heritability of AGD2 was 0.29 (90% CRI 0.24 to 0.34). The relationship between AGD1 and AGD2 was highly positive, with a genetic correlation of 0.89 (90% CRI 0.82 to 0.94). Using a GWAS analysis of 2,460 genomic windows based on 50k genotype data, we detected a region on chromosome 20 that was highly associated with variation in AGD1, and a second region on chromosome 13 that was moderately associated with variation in AGD1. We did not detect any genomic regions associated with AGD2 which was measured in fewer animals. The genetic correlation between AGD1 and AGEP was 0.10 (90% CRI 0.00 to 0.19), whereas the genetic correlation between AGD2 and AGEP was 0.30 (90% CRI 0.15 to 0.44). The timing of calving, breeding, and pregnancy (CR42, PB21, and PR42) during first or second lactations exhibited moderate genetic relationships with AGD1 (0.19 to 0.52) and AGD2 (0.46 to 0.63). Genetic correlations between AGD and body stature traits were weak (≤0.16). We conclude that AGD is a moderately heritable trait, which may have value as an early-in-life genetic predictor for reproductive success during lactation.

Validating the female fertility estimated breeding value in Australian commercial dairy herds.

We conducted a retrospective cohort study to validate the efficacy of the Australian multitrait fertility estimated breeding value (EBV). We did this by determining its associations with phenotypic measures of reproductive performance (i.e., submission rate, first service conception rate, and early calving). Our secondary aim was to report the associations between these reproductive outcomes and management and climate-related factors hypothesized to affect fertility. Our study population included 38 pasture-based dairy herds from the northern Victorian irrigation region in Australia. We collected records for 86,974 cows with 219,156 lactations and 438,578 mating events from the date on which managers started herd recording until December 2016, comprising both fertility-related data such as insemination records, calving dates, and pregnancy test results, and systems-related data such as production, herd size, and calving pattern. We also collected hourly data from 2004 to 2017 from the closest available weather station to account for climate-related factors (i.e., temperature humidity index; THI). Multilevel Cox proportional hazard models were used to analyze time-to-event outcomes (days to first service, days to cow calving following the planned herd calving start date), and multilevel logistic regression models for binomial outcomes (conception to first service) in the Holstein-Friesian and Jersey breeds. A 1-unit increase in daughter fertility EBV was associated with a 5.4 and 8.2% increase in the daily hazard of calving in the Holstein-Friesian and Jersey breeds respectively. These are relative increases (i.e., a Holstein-Friesian herd with a 60% 6-wk in-calf rate would see an improvement to 63.2% with a 1-unit increase in herd fertility EBV). Similar results were obtained for submission and conception rate. Associations between 120-d milk yield and reproductive outcome were complicated by interactions with 120-d protein percentage and calving age, depending on the breed and outcome. In general, we found that the reproductive performance of high milk-yielding animals deteriorated faster with age than low milk-yielding animals, and high protein percentage exacerbated the differences between low and high milk-yielding animals. Climate-related factors were also associated with fertility, with a 1-unit increase in maximum THI decreasing first service conception rate by 1.2% for Holstein-Friesians but having no statistically significant association in the Jersey breed. However, THI had a negative association in both breeds on the daily hazard of calving. Our study validates the efficacy of the daughter fertility EBV for improving herd reproductive performance and identifies significant associations between 120-d milk and protein yields and THI on the fertility of Australian dairy cows.

Effectiveness of the Australian breeding value for heat tolerance at discriminating responses of lactating Holstein cows to heat stress.

Heat stress has negative consequences for milk production and reproduction of dairy cattle. These adverse effects are likely to increase because of climate change and anticipated increases in milk yield. Some of the variation among cows in ability to resist effects of heat stress is genetic. The current objective of this observational study was to assess the effectiveness of the Australian breeding value for heat tolerance (ABVHT) based on the decline in milk yield with heat stress for predicting cow differences in effects of heat stress on regulation of body temperature, milk production, and reproductive function. Genomic breeding values for heat tolerance were calculated for 12,487 cows from a single California dairy farm. Rectal temperature in the afternoon (1100-2045 h) was measured on a subset of 626 lactating cows with ABVHT ≥102 (heat tolerant) or <102 (heat sensitive). Rectal temperature was 0.12°C lower for heat-tolerant cows than heat-sensitive cows. Vaginal temperatures were measured every 15 min for 5 d in 118 cows with ABVHT ≥108 (extreme heat tolerant) or <97 (extreme heat sensitive). Vaginal temperature was 0.07°C lower for extreme heat-tolerant cows than extreme heat-sensitive cows. Lactation records for 4,703 cows with ABVHT were used to evaluate seasonal variation in first 90-d milk yield, fat percent, and protein percent for each ABVHT quartile. Overall, cows with higher ABVHT had lower milk yield, fat percentage, and protein percentage and higher first service pregnancy rate. There was no summer depression in production or reproduction or interactions between season and ABVHT quartile. We observed that ABVHT can successfully identify heat-tolerant cows that maintain lower body temperatures during heat stress. The lack of a pronounced seasonality in milk production or reproduction precluded evaluation of whether ABVHT is related to the magnitude of effect of heat stress on those traits.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions through genetic selection in the Australian dairy industry.

This research explores possible options to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Australian dairy industry by (1) including an environmental component in the national breeding program and (2) estimating the economic and environmental impacts of implementation of the subsequent indexes. A total of 12 possible selection indexes were considered. These indexes were developed to predict changes in gross per-animal methane production (using 3 scenarios depending on availability and efficacy of a direct methane trait breeding value prediction) with 4 different carbon prices, integrating them into an augmentation of the current conventional national selection index. Although some economic response is lost with inclusion of the GHG subindexes in the Balanced Performance Index, options do exist where this loss is marginal and, even in scenarios where all selection pressure is based on the environmental weighting, economic progress is still made in all cases. When including environmental traits within an index, if a relatively low percentage of economic gain or index progression is sacrificed, then approximately 40 to 50% of the maximum possible reductions in emissions may be achieved. This concurrent selection of estimated breeding values that have a correlated favorable response in emissions in addition to direct selection on a residual methane trait allows a high level of methane reduction to be achieved with a realized cost to farmers that is far lower than the economic value placed on carbon. By implementing a GHG subindex in the national breeding program, we can achieve up to a 7.9% decrease in residual methane and 9 times the reduction in gross emissions in 10 yr, compared with the current breeding program, with little to no cost to farmers. By 2050, selection based on one of the more moderate index scenarios at a carbon price of AUD$250/t (AUD$1 = US$0.71), or opportunity cost to farmers of AUD$87.22, will reduce gross emissions by 8.23% and emissions intensity by 21.25%, therefore offering a mitigation strategy that will be effective at reducing emissions with little compromise to profit.

Including milk production, conformation, and functional traits in multivariate models for genetic evaluation of lameness.

Lameness is a serious health and welfare issue that can negatively affect the economic performance of cows, especially on pasture-based dairy farms. However, most genetic predictions (GP) of lameness have low accuracy because lameness data are often incomplete as data are collected voluntarily by farmers in countries such as Australia. The objective of this study was to find routinely measured traits that are correlated with lameness and use them in multivariate evaluation models to improve the accuracy of GP for lameness. We used health events and treatments associated with lameness recorded by Australian farmers from 2002 to early 2019. The lameness incidence rates in Holstein and Jersey cows were 3.3% and 4.6%, respectively. We analyzed the records of 36 other traits (milk production, conformation, fertility, and survival traits) to estimate genetic correlations with lameness. The estimated heritability ± standard error (and repeatability ± standard error) for lameness in both Holstein and Jersey breeds were very low: 0.007 ± 0.002 (and 0.029 ± 0.002) and 0.005 ± 0.003 (and 0.027 ± 0.006), respectively, in univariate sire models. For the GP models, we tested including measurements of overall type to prediction models for Holsteins, stature and body length for Jersey, and milk yield and fertility traits for both breeds. The average accuracy of GP, calculated from prediction error variances, were 0.38 and 0.24 for Holstein and Jersey sires, respectively, when estimated using univariate sire models and both increased to 0.43 using multivariate sire models. In conclusion, we found that the accuracy of GP for lameness could be improved by including genetically correlated traits in a multivariate model. However, to further improve the accuracy of predictions of lameness, precise identification and recording incidences of hoof or leg disorder, or large-scale recording of locomotion and claw scores by trained personnel should be considered.

Use of insemination data for joint evaluation of male and female fertility in predominantly seasonal-calving dairy herds.

Conception in dairy cattle is influenced by the fertility of the cow and the bull and their interaction. Despite genetic selection for female fertility in many countries, selection for male fertility is largely not practiced. The primary objective of this study was to quantify variation in male and female fertility using insemination data from predominantly seasonal-calving herds. Nonreturn rate (NRR) was derived by coding each insemination as successful (1) or failed (0) based on a minimum of at least 25 d. The NRR was treated as a trait of the bull with semen (male fertility) and the cow that is mated (female fertility). The data (805,463 cows that mated to 5,776 bulls) were used to estimate parameters using either models that only included bulls with mating data or models that fitted the genetic and permanent environmental (PE) effects of bulls and cows simultaneously. We also evaluated whether fitting genetic and PE effects of bulls as one term is better for ranking bulls based on NRR compared with a model that ignored genetic effect. The age of cows that were mated, age of the bulls with semen data, season of mating, breed of cow that mated, inbreeding of cows and bulls, and days from calving to mating date were found to have a significant effect on NRR. Only about 3% of the total variance was explained by the random effects in the model, despite fitting the genetic and PE effects of the bull and cow. The 2 components of fertility (male and fertility) were not correlated. The heritability of male fertility was low (0.001 to 0.008), and that of female fertility was also low (~0.016). The highest heritability estimate for male fertility was obtained from the model that fitted the additive genetic relationship matrix and PE component of the bull as one term. When this model was used to calculate bull solutions, the difference between bulls with at least 100 inseminations was up to 19.2% units (-9.6 to 9.6%). Bull solutions from this model were compared with bull solutions that were predicted fitting bull effects ignoring pedigree. Bull solutions that were obtained considering pedigree had (1) the highest accuracy of prediction when early insemination was used to predict yet-to-be observed insemination data of bulls, and (2) improved model stability (i.e., a higher correlation between bull solutions from 2 randomly split herds) compared with the model which fitted bull with no pedigree. For practical purposes, the model that fitted genetic and PE effect as one term can provide more accurate semen fertility values for bulls than the model without genetic effect. To conclude, insemination data from predominantly seasonal-calving herds can be used to quantify variability between bulls for male fertility, which makes their ranking on NRR feasible. Potentially this information can be used for monitoring bulls and can supplement efforts to improve herd fertility by avoiding or minimizing the use of semen from subfertile bulls.

How genomic selection has increased rates of genetic gain and inbreeding in the Australian national herd, genomic information nucleus, and bulls.

Genomic selection has been commonly used for selection for over a decade. In this time, the rate of genetic gain has more than doubled in some countries, while inbreeding per year has also increased. Inbreeding can result in a loss of genetic diversity, decreased long-term response to selection, reduced animal performance and ultimately, decreased farm profitability. We quantified and compared changes in genetic gain and diversity resulting from genomic selection in Australian Holstein and Jersey cattle populations. To increase the accuracy of genomic selection, Australia has had a female genomic reference population since 2013, specifically designed to be representative of commercial populations and thus including both Holstein and Jersey cows. Herds that kept excellent health and fertility data were invited to join this population and most their animals were genotyped. In both breeds, the rate of genetic gain and inbreeding was greatest in bulls, and then the female genomic reference population, and finally the wider national herd. When comparing pre- and postgenomic selection, the rates of genetic gain for the national economic index has increased by ~160% in Holstein females and ~100% in Jersey females. This has been accompanied by doubling of the rates of inbreeding in female populations, and the rate of inbreeding has increased several fold in Holstein bulls since the widespread use of genomic selection. Where cow genotype data were available to perform a more accurate genomic analysis, greater rates of pedigree and genomic inbreeding were observed, indicating actual inbreeding levels could be underestimated in the national population due to gaps in pedigrees. Based on current rates of genetic gain, the female reference population is progressing ahead of the national herd and could be used to infer and track the future inbreeding and genetic trends of the national herds.

Validation of milk mid-infrared spectroscopy for predicting the metabolic status of lactating dairy cows in Australia.

Increased concentrations of some serum biomarkers are known to be associated with impaired health of dairy cows. Therefore, being able to predict these biomarkers, especially in the early stage of lactation, would enable preventive management decision. Some health biomarkers may also be used as phenotypes for genetic improvement for improved animal health. In this study, we validated the accuracy and robustness of models for predicting serum concentrations of ß-hydroxybutyrate (BHB), fatty acids, and urea nitrogen, using milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy. The data included 3,262 blood samples of 3,027 lactating Holstein-Friesian cows from 19 dairy herds in Southeastern Australia, collected in the period from July 2017 to April 2020. The models were developed using partial least squares regression and were validated using 10-fold random cross-validation, herd-year by herd-year external validation, and year by year validation. The coefficients of determination (R2) for prediction of serum BHB, fatty acids, and urea obtained through random cross-validation were 0.60, 0.42, and 0.87, respectively. For the herd-year by herd-year external validation, the prediction accuracies held up comparatively well, with R2 values of 0.49, 0.33, and 0.67 for of serum BHB, fatty acids, and urea, respectively. When the models were developed using data from a single year to predict data collected in future years, the R2 remained comparable, however, the root mean squared errors increased substantially (4-10 times larger than compared with that of herd-year by herd-year external validation) which could be due to machine differences in spectral response, the change in spectral response of individual machines over time, or other differences associated with farm management between seasons. In conclusion, the mid-infrared equations for predicting serum BHB, fatty acids, and urea have been validated. The prediction equations could be used to help farmers detect cows with metabolic disorders in early lactation in addition to generating novel phenotypes for genetic improvement purposes.

Estimating methane coefficients to predict the environmental impact of traits in the Australian dairy breeding program.

The dairy industry has been scrutinized for the environmental impact associated with rearing and maintaining cattle for dairy production. There are 3 possible opportunities to reduce emissions through genetic selection: (1) a direct methane trait, (2) a reduction in replacements, and (3) an increase in productivity. Our aim was to estimate the independent effects of traits in the Australian National Breeding Objective on the gross methane production and methane intensity (EI) of the Australian dairy herd of average genetic potential. Based on similar published research, the traits determined to have an effect on emissions include production, fertility, survival, health, and feed efficiency. The independent effect of each trait on the gross emissions produced per animal due to genetic improvement and change in EI due to genetic improvement (intensity value, IV) were estimated and compared. Based on an average Australian dairy herd, the gross emissions emitted per cow per year were 4,297.86 kg of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2-eq). The annual product output, expressed in protein equivalents (protein-eq), and EI per cow were 339.39 kg of protein-eq and 12.67 kg of CO2-eq/kg of protein-eq, respectively. Of the traits included in the National Breeding Objective, genetic progress in survival and feed saved were consistently shown to result in a favorable environmental impact. Conversely, production traits had an unfavorable environmental impact when considering gross emissions, and favorable when considering EI. Fertility had minimal impact as its effects were primarily accounted for through survival. Mastitis resistance only affected IV coefficients and to a very limited extent. These coefficients may be used in selection indexes to apply emphasis on traits based on their environmental impact, as well as applied by governments and stakeholders to track trends in industry emissions. Although initiatives are underway to develop breeding values to reduce methane by combining small methane data sets internationally, alternative options to reduce emissions by utilizing selection indexes should be further explored.

The use of milk mid-infrared spectroscopy to improve genomic prediction accuracy of serum biomarkers.

Breeding objectives in the dairy industry have shifted from being solely focused on production to including fertility, animal health, and environmental impact. Increased serum concentrations of candidate biomarkers of health and fertility, such as ß-hydroxybutyric acid (BHB), fatty acids, and urea are difficult and costly to measure, and thus limit the number of records. Accurate genomic prediction requires a large reference population. The inclusion of milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopic predictions of biomarkers may increase genomic prediction accuracy of these traits. Our objectives were to (1) estimate the heritability of, and genetic correlations between, selected serum biomarkers and their respective MIR predictions, and (2) evaluate genomic prediction accuracies of either only measured serum traits, or serum traits plus MIR-predicted traits. The MIR-predicted traits were either fitted in a single trait model, assuming the measured trait and predicted trait were the same trait, or in a multitrait model, where measured and predicted trait were assumed to be correlated traits. We performed all analyses using relationship matrices constructed from pedigree (A matrix), genotypes (G matrix), or both pedigree and genotypes (H matrix). Our data set comprised up to 2,198 and 9,657 Holstein cows with records for serum biomarkers and MIR-predicted traits, respectively. Heritabilities of measured serum traits ranged from 0.04 to 0.07 for BHB, from 0.13 to 0.21 for fatty acids, and from 0.10 to 0.12 for urea. Heritabilities for MIR-predicted traits were not significantly different from those for the measured traits. Genetic correlations between measured traits and MIR-predicted traits were close to 1 for urea. For BHB and fatty acids, genetic correlations were lower and had large standard errors. The inclusion of MIR predicted urea substantially increased prediction accuracy for urea. For BHB, including MIR-predicted BHB reduced the genomic prediction accuracy, whereas for fatty acids, prediction accuracies were similar with either measured fatty acids, MIR-predicted fatty acids, or both. The high genetic correlation between urea and MIR-predicted urea, in combination with the increased prediction accuracy, demonstrated the potential of using MIR-predicted urea for genomic prediction of urea. For BHB and fatty acids, further studies with larger data sets are required to obtain more accurate estimates of genetic correlations.

Herd manager attitudes and intentions regarding the selection of high-fertility EBV sires in Australia.

Reproductive performance in dairy cattle has declined over the last 50 years as an unintended consequence of selection for high milk yield. Since the early 2000s, dairy geneticists have released successive versions of fertility estimated breeding values (EBV) to assist in reversing this trend. At the herd level, fertility EBV can help managers accelerate improvements in reproductive performance by acting as a second selection criteria when used in tandem with a breeding index. However, use of the fertility EBV in sire selection currently varies between herd managers. The aim of this study was to better understand the reasons why herd managers choose or do not choose to select high-fertility EBV sires, using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as a social research framework. Thirty-five Victorian dairy herd managers were recruited as part of a larger study investigating the daughter fertility Australian Breeding Value and interviewed using a series of questions examining TPB constructs. The interviews were recorded and transcribed using template analysis. A wide range of herd manager types were enrolled into the study, with representation from diverse systems. Out of the 35 herd managers, 27 included fertility in their list of high-priority breeding objectives. A wide variation in results was consistent with previous studies that have demonstrated marked heterogeneity in herd manager attitudes toward bull selection. Herd manager-perceived barriers to selection of sires with high daughter fertility EBV included a lack of high daughter fertility bulls with other desirable traits, a lack of trust in the fertility EBV or in the Australian EBV system, difficulty in interpreting international proofs, information overload, semen prices, low bull reliability, and difficulty in understanding bull catalogs. Not all herd managers found the process problematic, however, particularly if a breeding consultant was employed to select all or most of the sires. Herd manager-perceived barriers for choosing to select daughter fertility as a breeding objective include a lack of awareness of the EBV, a lack of interest in genetics in general, low confidence in the impact of genetic selection for fertility, and a feeling that fertility was not important for their production system. The results of this study suggest that animal geneticists and on-farm service providers need to work together to allow the opportunities arising from appropriate use of fertility EBV to be realized more broadly across the dairy industry.

Breeding for reduced methane emission and feed-efficient Holstein cows: An international response.

Selecting for lower methane (CH4) emitting animals is one of the best approaches to reduce CH4 given that genetic progress is permanent and cumulative over generations. As genetic selection requires a large number of animals with records and few countries actively record CH4, combining data from different countries could help to expedite accurate genetic parameters for CH4 traits and build a future genomic reference population. Additionally, if we want to include CH4 in the breeding goal, it is important to know the genetic correlations of CH4 traits with other economically important traits. Therefore, the aim of this study was first to estimate genetic parameters of 7 suggested methane traits, as well as genetic correlations between methane traits and production, maintenance, and efficiency traits using a multicountry database. The second aim was to estimate genetic correlations within parities and stages of lactation for CH4. The third aim was to evaluate the expected response of economically important traits by including CH4 traits in the breeding goal. A total of 15,320 methane production (MeP, g/d) records from 2,990 cows belonging to 4 countries (Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and Denmark) were analyzed. Records on dry matter intake (DMI), body weight (BW), body condition score, and milk yield (MY) were also available. Additional traits such as methane yield (MeY; g/kg DMI), methane intensity (MeI; g/kg energy-corrected milk), a genetic standardized methane production, and 3 definitions of residual methane production (g/d), residual feed intake, metabolic BW (MBW), BW change, and energy-corrected milk were calculated. The estimated heritability of MeP was 0.21, whereas heritability estimates for MeY and MeI were 0.30 and 0.38, and for the residual methane traits heritability ranged from 0.13 to 0.16. Genetic correlations between different methane traits were moderate to high (0.41 to 0.97). Genetic correlations between MeP and economically important traits ranged from 0.29 (MY) to 0.65 (BW and MBW), being 0.41 for DMI. Selection index calculations showed that residual methane had the most potential for inclusion in the breeding goal when compared with MeP, MeY, and MeI, as residual methane allows for selection of low methane emitting animals without compromising other economically important traits. Inclusion of residual feed intake in the breeding goal could further reduce methane, as the correlation with residual methane is moderate and elicits a favorable correlated response. Adding a negative economic value for methane could facilitate a substantial reduction in methane emissions while maintaining an increase in milk production.

Genetic parameters for methane emission traits in Australian dairy cows.

Methane is a greenhouse gas of high interest to the dairy industry, with 57% of Australia's dairy emissions attributed to enteric methane. Enteric methane emissions also constitute a loss of approximately 6.5% of ingested energy. Genetic selection offers a unique mitigation strategy to decrease the methane emissions of dairy cattle, while simultaneously improving their energy efficiency. Breeding objectives should focus on improving the overall sustainability of dairy cattle by reducing methane emissions without negatively affecting important economic traits. Common definitions for methane production, methane yield, and methane intensity are widely accepted, but there is not yet consensus for the most appropriate method to calculate residual methane production, as the different methods have not been compared. In this study, we examined 9 definitions of residual methane production. Records of individual cow methane, dry matter intake (DMI), and energy corrected milk (ECM) were obtained from 379 animals and measured over a 5-d period from 12 batches across 5 yr using the SF6 tracer method and an electronic feed recording system, respectively. The 9 methods of calculating residual methane involved genetic and phenotypic regression of methane production on a combination of DMI and ECM corrected for days in milk, parity, and experimental batch using phenotypes or direct genomic values. As direct genomic values (DGV) for DMI are not routinely evaluated in Australia at this time, DGV for FeedSaved, which is derived from DGV for residual feed intake and estimated breeding value for bodyweight, were used. Heritability estimates were calculated using univariate models, and correlations were estimated using bivariate models corrected for the fixed effects of year-batch, days in milk, and lactation number, and fitted using a genomic relationship matrix. Residual methane production candidate traits had low to moderate heritability (0.10 ± 0.09 to 0.21 ± 0.10), with residual methane production corrected for ECM being the highest. All definitions of residual methane were highly correlated phenotypically (>0.87) and genetically (>0.79) with one another and moderately to highly with other methane candidate traits (>0.59), with high standard errors. The results suggest that direct selection for a residual methane production trait would result in indirect, favorable improvement in all other methane traits. The high standard errors highlight the importance of expanding data sets by measuring more animals for their methane emissions and DMI, or through exploration of proxy traits and combining data via international collaboration.

Predicting the likelihood of conception to first insemination of dairy cows using milk mid-infrared spectroscopy.

The objective of this study was to examine the ability of milk mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy and other on-farm data, such as milk yield, milk composition, stage of lactation, calving age, days in milk at insemination, and somatic cell count, to identify cows that were most or least likely to conceive to first insemination. A total of 16,628 spectral and milk production records of 7,040 cows from 29 commercial dairy herds across 3 Australian states were used. Three models, comprising different explanatory variables, were tested. Model 1 included features that are readily available on farms participating in milk recording, such as milk yield, milk composition, somatic cell count, days from calving to insemination, and calving season. Days in milk and age at calving were incorporated into model 1 to form model 2. In model 3, MIR was added to model 2, but to avoid double counting, milk composition traits of model 2 were removed. The models were first trained on extreme data [i.e., including cows that (1) conceived to first insemination and (2) cows with no conception event recorded and with only 1 insemination]. Then, the models were validated in a fresh data set with all cows regardless of conception outcomes present to test for their ability to identify cows that conceived or did not conceive to first insemination. To do this, we ranked the predicted probability of all cows in the validation set and then selected the top and bottom records in varying proportions from 5 to 40% (i.e., where the model predicted the highest versus lowest likelihood of conception to first insemination, respectively) and compared with the actual values. The model's performance was evaluated through herd-year by herd-year external validation and measured as the proportion of selected records being correct. The results show that when more cows are selected (i.e., descending confidence), the accuracy of the models was reduced, and selecting the 10% of cows with the highest confidence of predictions produces optimal accuracy. Irrespective of the proportions, none of the models could predict cows that conceived to first insemination, with an accuracy around 0.48. When attempting to predict the bottom 10% of cows, which had the least likelihood of conception to first insemination, model 1 had prediction accuracy around 0.64. Compared with model 1, the addition of days in milk and calving age (model 2) resulted in a negligible improvement in prediction accuracy (0.01 to 0.03). Model 3 had the highest prediction accuracy (0.76), which implies that in the models tested, MIR is of primary importance in the prediction of fertility of dairy cows. In conclusion, this study indicates that MIR and other milk recording data could be used to identify cows with potential difficulty in getting pregnant to first insemination with promising accuracy.

Diagnosing the pregnancy status of dairy cows: How useful is milk mid-infrared spectroscopy?

Pregnancy diagnosis is an essential part of successful breeding programs on dairy farms. Milk composition alters with pregnancy, and this is well documented. Fourier-transform mid-infrared (MIR) spectroscopy is a rapid and cost-effective method for providing milk spectra that reflect the detailed composition of milk samples. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the ability of MIR spectroscopy to predict the pregnancy status of dairy cows. The MIR spectra and insemination records were available from 8,064 Holstein cows of 19 commercial dairy farms in Australia. Three strategies were studied to classify cows as open or pregnant using partial least squares discriminant analysis models with random cow-independent 10-fold cross-validation and external validation on a cow-independent test set. The first strategy considered 6,754 MIR spectra after insemination used as independent variables in the model. The results showed little ability to detect the pregnancy status as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.63 and 0.65 for cross-validation and testing, respectively. The second strategy, involving 1,664 records, aimed to reduce noise in the MIR spectra used as predictors by subtracting a spectrum before insemination (i.e., open spectrum) from the spectrum after insemination. The accuracy was comparable with the first approach, showing no superiority of the method. Given the limited results for these models when using combined data from all stages after insemination, the third strategy explored separate models at 7 stages after insemination comprising 348 to 1,566 records each (i.e., progressively greater gestation) with single MIR spectra after insemination as predictors. The models developed using data recorded after 150 d of pregnancy showed promising prediction accuracy with the average value of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78 and 0.76 obtained through cross-validation and testing, respectively. If this can be confirmed on a larger data set and extended to somewhat earlier stages after insemination, the model could be used as a complementary tool to detect fetal abortion.

Usefulness of milk mid-infrared spectroscopy for predicting lameness score in dairy cows.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the ability of milk infrared spectra to predict cow lameness score (LMS) for use as an indicator of cow health on Australian dairy farms, or as an indicator trait for genetic evaluation purposes. The study involved 3,771 cows from 10 farms in Australia. Milk infrared spectra collected during the monthly herd testing were available in all the farms involved in the study. Lameness score was measured once in each herd, within 72 h from a test day, and merged to the closest spectra records. Lameness score was expressed on a scale from 0 to 3, where 0 is assigned to sound cows and scores 1 to 3 are assigned to cows with increased lameness severity. Partial least squares discriminant analysis was used to develop prediction models for classifying sound (score 0) and not-sound cows (i.e., cows walking unevenly, score greater than 0). Discriminant models were tested in a 10-fold random cross-validation process. Milk infrared spectra correctly classified only 57% of the cows walking unevenly and only 59% of the sound cows. When additional predictors (parity, age at calving, days in milk, and milk yield) were included in the prediction model, the model correctly classified 57% of the cows walking unevenly and 62% of the sound cows. The same model applied only to the cows in the first third of lactation correctly classified 66% of the cows walking unevenly and 57% of the sound cows. When the prediction model was used to identify lame cows (scores 2 and 3), only 49% of them were classified as such. These results are considered to be too poor to envisage a practical application of these models in the near future as on-farm tools to provide an indication of LMS. To investigate whether, at this stage, predictions of the LMS could be useful as large-scale phenotypes for animal breeding purposes, we estimated (co)variance components for actual and predicted LMS using 2,670 and 24,560 records, respectively. As the genetic correlation between actual and predicted LMS was not significantly different from zero, predictions of lameness from milk spectra and additional on-farm variables cannot be used, at this stage, as an indicator trait for actual LMS. More research is needed to find better strategies to predict lameness.

Optimizing genomic prediction for Australian Red dairy cattle.

The reliability of genomic prediction is influenced by several factors, including the size of the reference population, which makes genomic prediction for breeds with a relatively small population size challenging, such as Australian Red dairy cattle. Including other breeds in the reference population may help to increase the size of the reference population, but the reliability of genomic prediction is also influenced by the relatedness between the reference and validation population. Our objective was to optimize the reference population for genomic prediction of Australian Red dairy cattle. A reference population comprising up to 3,248 Holstein bulls, 48,386 Holstein cows, 807 Jersey bulls, 8,734 Jersey cows, and 3,041 Australian Red cows and a validation population with between 208 and 224 Australian Red Bulls were used, with records for milk, fat, and protein yield, somatic cell count, fertility, and survival. Three different analyses were implemented: single-trait genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP), multi-trait GBLUP, and single-trait Bayes R, using 2 different medium-density SNP panels: the standard 50K chip and a custom array of variants that were expected to be enriched for causative mutations. Various reference populations were constructed containing the Australian Red cows and all Holstein and Jersey bulls and cows, all Holstein and Jersey bulls, all Holstein bulls and cows, all Holstein bulls, and a subset of the Holstein individuals varying the relatedness between Holsteins and Australian Reds and the number of Holsteins. Varying the relatedness between reference and validation populations only led to small changes in reliability. Whereas adding a limited number of closely related Holsteins increased reliabilities compared with within-breed prediction, increasing the number of Holsteins decreased the reliability. The multi-trait GBLUP, which considered the same trait in different breeds as correlated traits, yielded higher reliabilities than the single-trait GBLUP. Bayes R yielded lower reliabilities than multi-trait GBLUP and outperformed single-trait GBLUP for larger reference populations. Our results show that increasing the size of a multi-breed reference population may result in a reference population dominated by one breed and reduce the reliability to predict in other breeds.