Association between asthma control trajectories in preschoolers and disease remission.

INTRODUCTION: Early disease morbidity has been associated with asthma persistence in wheezing preschoolers; however, whether asthma control trajectories shortly after diagnosis could influence remission is unknown. We examined the association between asthma control trajectories 2 years post-diagnosis in preschoolers and subsequent disease remission. METHODS: We conducted a multicentre population-based retrospective cohort study consisting of 48 687 children with asthma diagnosed before 5 years old and born between 1990 and 2013 in four Canadian provinces who had prolonged disease activity post-diagnosis. Prolonged disease activity was defined as one or more medical visits or medications for asthma every 6-month period for at least four of the six periods post-diagnosis. Follow-up began at 3 years post-diagnosis (at cohort entry). Remission was defined as 2 consecutive years without drug claims or medical visits for asthma or asthma-like conditions following cohort entry. Asthma control trajectories, ascertained over four 6-month periods following diagnosis using a validated index, were classified as: "controlled throughout", "improving control", "worsening control", "out of control throughout" and "fluctuating control". Adjusted Cox models estimated associations between asthma control trajectories and time to remission. A random effects meta-analysis summarised province-specific hazard ratios (HRs). RESULTS: The pooled remission rate was 8.91 (95% CI 8.80-9.02) per 100 person-years. Compared with children controlled throughout, poorer asthma control was associated with incrementally lower hazard ratios of remission in four other trajectories: improving control (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82-0.96), fluctuating control (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.71-0.85), worsening control (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.62-0.75) and out of control throughout (HR 0.52, 95% CI 0.45-0.59). CONCLUSIONS: Asthma control trajectories 2 years following a diagnosis in preschoolers were associated with remission, highlighting the clinical relevance of documenting control trajectories in early life.

Comparison of the accuracy of classification models to estimate healthcare use and costs associated with COPD exacerbations in Saskatchewan, Canada: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: COPD is a high-cost disease and results in frequent contacts with the healthcare system. The study objective was to compare the accuracy of classification models with different covariates for classifying COPD patients into cost groups. METHODS: Linked health administrative databases from Saskatchewan, Canada, were used to identify a cohort of newly diagnosed COPD patients (April 1, 2007 to March 31, 2011) and their episodes of healthcare encounters for disease exacerbations. Total costs of the first and follow-up episodes were computed and patients were categorized as persistently high cost, occasionally high cost, and persistently low cost based on cumulative cost distribution ranking using the 75th percentile cutoff for high-cost status. Classification accuracy was compared for seven multinomial logistic regression models containing socio-demographic characteristics (i.e., base model), and socio-demographic and prior healthcare use characteristics (i.e., comparator models). RESULTS: Of the 1182 patients identified, 8.5% were classified as persistently high cost, 26.1% as occasionally high cost, and the remainder as persistently low cost. The persistently high-cost and occasionally high-cost patients incurred 10 times ($12 449 vs $1263) and seven times ($9334 vs $1263) more costs in their first exacerbation episode than persistently low-cost patients, respectively. Classification accuracy was 0.67 for the base model, whereas the comparator model containing socio-demographic and number of prior hospital admissions had the highest accuracy (0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Costs associated with COPD exacerbation episodes are substantial. Adding prior hospitalization to socio-demographic characteristics produced the highest improvements in classification accuracy. Accurate classification models are important for identifying potential healthcare cost management strategies.

Simultaneous temporal trends in dementia incidence and prevalence, 2005-2013: a population-based retrospective cohort study in Saskatchewan, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Original studies published over the last decade regarding time trends in dementia report mixed results. The aims of the present study were to use linked administrative health data for the province of Saskatchewan for the period 2005/2006 to 2012/2013 to: (1) examine simultaneous temporal trends in annual age- and sex-specific dementia incidence and prevalence among individuals aged 45 and older, and (2) stratify the changes in incidence over time by database of identification. METHODS: Using a population-based retrospective cohort study design, data were extracted from seven provincial administrative health databases linked by a unique anonymized identification number. Individuals 45 years and older at first identification of dementia between April 1, 2005 and March 31, 2013 were included, based on case definition criteria met within any one of four administrative health databases (hospital, physician, prescription drug, and long-term care). RESULTS: Between 2005/2006 and 2012/2013, the 12-month age-standardized incidence rate of dementia declined significantly by 11.07% and the 12-month age-standardized prevalence increased significantly by 30.54%. The number of incident cases decreased from 3,389 to 3,270 and the number of prevalent cases increased from 8,795 to 13,012. Incidence rate reductions were observed in every database of identification. CONCLUSIONS: We observed a simultaneous trend of decreasing incidence and increasing prevalence of dementia over a relatively short 8-year time period from 2005/2006 to 2012/2013. These trends indicate that the average survival time of dementia is lengthening. Continued observation of these time trends is warranted given the short study period.

Measuring care trajectories using health administrative databases: a population-based investigation of transitions from emergency to acute care.

BACKGROUND: A patient's trajectory through the healthcare system affects resource use and outcomes. Data fields in population-based administrative health databases are potentially valuable resources for constructing care trajectories for entire populations, provided they can capture patient transitions between healthcare services. This study describes patient transitions from the emergency department (ED) to other healthcare settings, and ascertains whether the discharge disposition field recorded in the ED data was a reliable source of patient transition information from the emergency to the acute care settings. METHODS: Administrative health databases from the province of Saskatchewan, Canada (population 1.1 million) were used to identify patients with at least one ED visit to provincial teaching hospitals (n = 5) between April 1, 2006 and March 31, 2012. Discharge disposition from ED was described using frequencies and percentages; and it includes categories such as home, transfer to other facilities, and died. The kappa statistic with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CIs) was used to measure agreement between the discharge disposition field in the ED data and hospital admission records. RESULTS: We identified N = 1,062,861 visits for 371,480 patients to EDs over the six-year study period. Three-quarters of the discharges were to home, 16.1 % were to acute care in the same facility in which the ED was located, and 1.6 % resulted in a patient transfer to a different acute care facility. Agreement between the discharge disposition field in the ED data and hospital admission records was good when the emergency and acute care departments were in the same facility (κ = 0.77, 95 % CI 0.77, 0.77). For transfers to a different acute care facility, agreement was only fair (κ = 0.36, 95 % CI 0.35, 0.36). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of patients who attended EDs did not transition to another healthcare setting. For those who transitioned to acute care, accuracy of the discharge disposition field depended on whether the two services were provided in the same facility. Using the hospital data as reference, we conclude that the discharge disposition field in the ED data is not reliable for measuring transitions from ED to acute care.

Incidence and prevalence of dementia in linked administrative health data in Saskatchewan, Canada: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Determining the epidemiology of dementia among the population as a whole in specific jurisdictions - including the long-term care population-is essential to providing appropriate care. The objectives of this study were to use linked administrative databases in the province of Saskatchewan to determine the 12-month incidence and prevalence of dementia for the 2012/13 period (1) among individuals aged 45 and older in the province of Saskatchewan, (2) according to age group and sex, and (3) according to diagnosis code and other case definition criteria. METHODS: We used a population-based retrospective cohort study design and extracted data from 10 provincial health databases linked by a unique health services number. The cohort included individuals 45 years and older at first identification of dementia between April 1, 2001 and March 31, 2013 based on case definitions met within any one of four administrative health databases (Hospital Discharge Abstracts, Physician Service Claims, Prescription Drug, and RAI-MDS, i.e., Long-term Care). RESULTS: A total of 3,270 incident cases of dementia (7.28 per 1,000 PAR) and 13,012 prevalent cases (28.16 per 1,000 PAR) were identified during 2012/13. This study found the incidence rate increased by 2.8 to 5.1 times and the prevalence rate increased by 2.6 to 4.6 times every 10 years after 45 years of age. Overall, the age-standardised incidence rate was significantly lower among females than males (7.04 vs. 7.65 per 1,000 PAR) and the age-standardised prevalence rate was significantly higher among females than males (28.92 vs. 26.53 per 1,000 PAR). Over one-quarter (28 %) of all incident cases were admitted to long-term care before a diagnosis was formally recorded in physician or hospital data, and nearly two-thirds of these cases were identified at admission with impairment at the moderate to very severe level or a disease category of Alzheimer's disease/other dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Linking multiple sources of registry data contributes to our understanding of the epidemiology of dementia across multiple segments of the population, inclusive of individuals residing in long-term care. This information is foundational for public awareness and policy recommendations, health promotion and prevention strategies, appropriate health resource planning, and research priorities.

Utilization of Health Services Before and After Diagnosis in a Specialist Rural and Remote Memory Clinic.

Background: Limited research exists on the use of specific health services over an extended time among rural persons with dementia. The study objective was to examine health service use over a 10-year period, five years before until five years after diagnosis in the specialist Rural and Remote Memory Clinic (RRMC). Methods: Clinical and administrative health data of RRMC patients were linked. Annual health service utilization of the cohort (N = 436) was analyzed for 416 patients pre-index (57.5% female, mean age 71.2 years) and 419 post-index (56.3% female, mean age 70.8 years). Approximately 40% of memory clinic diagnoses were Alzheimer's disease (AD), 20% non-AD dementia, and 40% mild or subjective cognitive impairment or other condition. Post-index, 188 patients (44.9%) moved to permanent long-term care and were retained in the sample; 121 patients died (28.9%) and were removed yearly. Results: Over the ten-year study period, a significant increase occurred in the average number of FP visits, all-type drug prescriptions, and dementia-specific drug prescriptions (all p <.001). The highest proportion of patients hospitalized was observed one year pre-index, the highest average number of specialist visits was observed one year post-index, and both demonstrated a significant decreasing trend in the five-year post-index period (p = .037). Conclusions: A pattern of increasing FP visits and drug prescriptions over an extended period before and after diagnosis in a specialist rural and remote memory clinic highlights a need to support FPs in post-diagnostic management. Further research of longitudinal patterns in health service utilization is merited.

Health service use before and after dementia diagnosis: a retrospective matched case-control study.

OBJECTIVES: This study investigated patterns in health service usage among older adults with dementia and matched controls over a 10-year span from 5 years before until 5 years after diagnosis. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective matched case-control study. SETTING: Administrative health data of individuals in Saskatchewan, Canada from 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2019. PARTICIPANTS: The study included 2024 adults aged 65 years and older living in the community at the time of dementia diagnosis from 1 April 2013 to 31 March 2014, matched 1:1 to individuals without a dementia diagnosis on age group, sex, rural versus urban residence, geographical region and comorbidity. OUTCOME MEASURES: For each 5-year period before and after diagnosis, we examined usage of health services each year including family physician (FP) visits, specialist visits, hospital admissions, all-type prescription drug dispensations and short-term care admissions. We used negative binomial regression to estimate the effect of dementia on yearly average health service utilisation adjusting for sex, age group, rural versus urban residence, geographical region, 1 year prior health service use and comorbidity. RESULTS: Adjusted findings demonstrated that 5 years before diagnosis, usage of all health services except hospitalisation was lower among persons with dementia than persons without dementia (all p<0.001). After this point, differences in higher health service usage among persons with dementia compared to without dementia were greatest in the year before and year after diagnosis. In the year before diagnosis, specialist visits were 59.7% higher (p<0.001) and hospitalisations 90.5% higher (p<0.001). In the year after diagnosis, FP visits were 70.0% higher (p<0.001) and all-type drug prescriptions 29.1% higher (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest the year before and year after diagnosis offer multiple opportunities to implement quality supports. FPs are integral to dementia care and require effective resources to properly serve this population.

Association Between Asthma Control Trajectories in Preschoolers and Long-Term Asthma Control.

BACKGROUND: The potential influence of asthma control in early life on long-term outcomes in childhood remains largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether asthma control trajectories in the 2 years after diagnosis in preschoolers are associated with long-term unsatisfactory asthma control. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter population-based retrospective cohort study, including four Canadian provincial birth cohorts derived from administrative databases. We included preschoolers (aged <5 years) with a diagnosis of asthma, defined as having one hospitalization or two physician visits for asthma within 2 years. Asthma control trajectories, ascertained over four 6-month periods after diagnosis using a validated index, were classified as controlled throughout, improving control, fluctuating control, worsening control, and out of control throughout. Long-term unsatisfactory control was defined as four or more short-acting ß2-agonist average doses per week or an exacerbation, measured within 6 months before index ages 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, and 16 years. Average risk ratios for long-term unsatisfactory control across all index ages were estimated using a robust Poisson model by province and meta-analyzed with a random effects model. RESULTS: In 50,188 preschoolers with asthma, the pooled average risk of having unsatisfactory control at any index age was 42% (95% confidence interval, 34.6-49.4). Compared with children who were controlled throughout, incrementally higher average risk ratios (95% confidence interval) of long-term unsatisfactory control were observed in each trajectory: improving control, 1.38 (1.28-1.49); fluctuating control, 1.54 (1.40-1.68); worsening control, 1.70 (1.55-1.86) and out of control throughout, 2.00 (1.80-2.21). CONCLUSIONS: Suboptimal asthma control trajectories shortly after a preschool diagnosis were associated with long-term unsatisfactory asthma control. Early control trajectories appear to be promising for predicting the risk for long-term adverse outcomes.

Unmet need and psychological distress predict emergency department visits in community-dwelling elderly women: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Unmet need to perform activities of daily living (ADL) is associated with increased use of urgent health services by the elderly. However, the reported associations may be confounded by psychological distress. We examine the independent effects of unmet need and psychological distress upon emergency department (ED) visits. METHODS: We conducted a prospective study of randomly selected community-dwelling adults aged ≥ 75. We report here the results for women only (n = 530). In-person interviews collected data on self-reported unmet need and the 14-item l'Indice de détresse psychologique de Santé Québec psychological distress scale. ED visits were identified from an administrative database. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of any ED visit in the 6 months following the baseline interview. RESULTS: In multivariable analysis, unmet need in instrumental ADL was associated with subsequent ED visits (odds ratio = 1.57, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-2.41), as was psychological distress (odds rate = 1.30, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.67). The magnitude of the association between unmet need and ED visits was overestimated in statistical models that did not adjust for psychological distress. CONCLUSIONS: Both unmet need and psychological distress were independent predictors of ED visits. Future investigations of unmet need and health services utilization should include psychological distress to control for confounding and improve the internal validity of statistical models.

Comparing comorbidity measures for predicting mortality and hospitalization in three population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Multiple comorbidity measures have been developed for risk-adjustment in studies using administrative data, but it is unclear which measure is optimal for specific outcomes and if the measures are equally valid in different populations. This research examined the predictive performance of five comorbidity measures in three population-based cohorts. METHODS: Administrative data from the province of Saskatchewan, Canada, were used to create the cohorts. The general population cohort included all Saskatchewan residents 20+ years, the diabetes cohort included individuals 20+ years with a diabetes diagnosis in hospital and/or physician data, and the osteoporosis cohort included individuals 50+ years with diagnosed or treated osteoporosis. Five comorbidity measures based on health services utilization, number of different diagnoses, and prescription drugs over one year were defined. Predictive performance was assessed for death and hospitalization outcomes using measures of discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (Brier score) for multiple logistic regression models. RESULTS: The comorbidity measures with optimal performance were the same in the general population (n = 662,423), diabetes (n = 41,925), and osteoporosis (n = 28,068) cohorts. For mortality, the Elixhauser index resulted in the highest c-statistic and lowest Brier score, followed by the Charlson index. For hospitalization, the number of diagnoses had the best predictive performance. Consistent results were obtained when we restricted attention to the population 65+ years in each cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The optimal comorbidity measure depends on the health outcome and not on the disease characteristics of the study population.

Incidence and prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis in Saskatchewan, Canada: 2001-2014.

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic inflammatory and destructive arthritis. Understanding the incidence and prevalence of RA within the province facilitates appropriate health care resource planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence/prevalence of RA over time for the overall provincial population, for specific age range categories, and for gender. METHODS: Saskatchewan Provincial Administrative Health Databases (2001-2014) were utilized as data sources. Two RA case-definitions were employed: 1) > three physician billing diagnoses, at least one of which was submitted by a specialist (rheumatologist, general internist or orthopedic surgeon) within 2 years; 2) > one hospitalization diagnosis (ICD-9-CM code-714, and ICD-10-CA code-M05). Data from these definitions were combined to identify incident and prevalent RA cases. Using this data, annual incidence and prevalence rates were calculated for the provincial population, specified age range categories and gender categories. RESULTS: The number of RA cases meeting the case definition increased from 3731 to 6223 over the study period. The incidence of RA disease demonstrated variation within the study period with age and sex adjusted incidence ranging from 33.6 (95% CI 29.9-37.6) per 100,000 to 73.1 (95% CI 67.6-79.0) per 100,000. The prevalence of RA increased over time from 482 (95% CI 466.7-497.7) per 100,000 in 2001-2002 to 683.4 (95% CI 666.6-700.6) per 100,000 in 2014-2015. Both incidence and prevalence rates rose with increasing age. Women were found to have higher incidence and prevalence rates compared to men. CONCLUSION: In Saskatchewan, the overall prevalence of RA is rising while there has been variability in the incidence.

The effect of socio-demographic factors on mental health and addiction high-cost use: a retrospective, population-based study in Saskatchewan.

OBJECTIVE: A small proportion of the population accounts for the majority of healthcare costs. Mental health and addiction (MHA) patients are consistently high-cost. We aimed to delineate factors amenable to public health action that may reduce high-cost use among a cohort of MHA clients in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study. Administrative health data from fiscal years (FY) 2009-2015, linked at the individual level, were analyzed (n = 129,932). The outcome of interest was ≥ 90th percentile of costs for each year under study ('persistent high-cost use'). Descriptive analyses were followed by logistic regression modelling; the latter excluded long-term care residents. RESULTS: The average healthcare cost among study cohort members in FY 2009 was ~ $2300; for high-cost users it was ~ $19,000. Individuals with unstable housing and hospitalization(s) had increased risk of persistent high-cost use; both of these effects were more pronounced as comorbidities increased. Patients with schizophrenia, particularly those under 50 years old, had increased probability of persistent high-cost use. The probability of persistent high-cost use decreased with good connection to a primary care provider; this effect was more pronounced as the number of mental health conditions increased. CONCLUSION: Despite constituting only 5% of the study cohort, persistent high-cost MHA clients (n = 6455) accounted for ~ 35% of total costs. Efforts to reduce high-cost use should focus on reduction of multimorbidity, connection to a primary care provider (particularly for those with more than one MHA), young patients with schizophrenia, and adequately addressing housing stability.

Identifying Distinct Healthcare Pathways During Episodes of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbations.

Healthcare pathways are important to measure because they are expected to affect outcomes. However, they are challenging to define because patients exhibit heterogeneity in their use of healthcare services. The objective of this study was to identify and describe healthcare pathways during episodes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Linked administrative databases from Saskatchewan, Canada were used to identify a cohort of newly diagnosed COPD patients and their episodes of healthcare use for disease exacerbations. Latent class analysis (LCA) was used to classify the cohort into homogeneous pathways using indicators of respiratory-related hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, general and specialist physician visits, and outpatient prescription drug dispensations. Multinomial logistic regression models tested patients' demographic and disease characteristics associated with pathway group membership. The most frequent healthcare contact sequences in each pathway were described. Tests of mean costs across groups were conducted using a model-based approach with χ² statistics. LCA identified 3 distinct pathways for patients with hospital- (n = 963) and ED-initiated (n = 364) episodes. For the former, pathway group 1 members followed complex pathways in which multiple healthcare services were repeatedly used and incurred substantially higher costs than patients in the other pathway groups. For patients with an ED-initiated episode, pathway group 1 members also had higher costs than other groups. Pathway groups differed with respect to patient demographic and disease characteristics. A minority of patients were discharged from ED or hospital, but did not have any follow-up care during the remainder of their episode.Patients who followed complex pathways could benefit from case management interventions to streamline their journeys through the healthcare system. The minority of patients whose pathways were not consistent with recommended follow-up care should be further investigated to fully align COPD treatment in the province with recommended care practices.

Unmet need for assistance to perform activities of daily living and psychological distress in community-dwelling elderly women.

Community-dwelling seniors increasingly require physical assistance to perform the activities of daily living (ADL). To examine the possible association of this need with psychological distress, we conducted a prospective cohort study of community-dwelling people age 75 and older in Montreal, Canada. We report the results for women only (n = 530). Multivariable linear regression was used to examine the association between met and unmet need in instrumental ADL (IADL) and personal ADL (PADL) with concomitant psychological distress. Unmet IADL need was associated with elevated psychological distress [ß = 0.42 (95% CI: 0.26, 0.60)], as was met IADL need [ß = 0.19 (95% CI: 0.06, 0.33)], but not met and unmet PADL need. The full model explained 32.8 per cent of the total variance in psychological distress. Receiving assistance to meet IADL needs is associated with elevated psychological distress. Not receiving assistance, however, is associated with even greater distress.

Frailty and its association with disability and comorbidity in a community-dwelling sample of seniors in Montreal: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The term frailty is used to describe older persons at high risk for adverse health outcomes. In 2001, Fried et al. proposed a now widely cited definition which suggests that frailty is a clinical entity related to, but distinct from, ADL disability and comorbidity. Frailty status was assessed based on the presence of any three of the following five characteristics: shrinking, weakness, poor endurance, slowness, and low activity. The objectives of the current study are to estimate the prevalence of frailty in a sample of community-dwelling older persons, to identify sociodemographic and health variables associated with frailty, and to examine the complex relationships between frailty and comorbidity, ADL disability and IADL disability. METHODS: This study is based on cross-sectional analysis of 740 community-dwelling seniors from the Montreal Unmet Needs Study (MUNS). The five characteristics of frailty were operationalised using measures available in MUNS. The Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel test was used to identify variables associated with frailty. Overlaps between frailty, comorbidity and disability were assessed using proportions. RESULTS: Overall, 7.4% were classified as frail, 49.7% prefrail and 42.8% non-frail. Frailty was associated with age, sex, income, education, number of chronic diseases, ADL disability, and IADL disability. Among those classified as frail, 29.1% had disabilities in ADLs, 92.7% in IADLs and 81.8% had comorbidity. CONCLUSION: Findings on the relationship between frailty and sociodemographic variables, morbidity and disability, support previous studies, providing further evidence that although frailty seems to be a distinct geriatric concept, it also overlaps with other concepts.

Association of unmet need with self-rated health in a community dwelling cohort of disabled seniors 75 years of age and over.

Self-rated health (SRH) is a measure of perceived health that has been shown to predict use of community services, functional decline, pain, and mortality. Many factors associated with SRH have been identified, but unmet need for physical assistance with activities of daily living (ADL) has not yet been examined. The objective of this paper is to examine the association between unmet need and SRH while accounting for the effects of other, previously identified, correlates of SRH. We conducted a secondary analysis of a population-based study of 839 residents of Montréal, Québec who were 75 years of age or older, not cognitively impaired, and living in the community. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between met and unmet personal ADL (PADL) and instrumental ADL (IADL) need for physical assistance with SRH. Among 508 disabled community-dwelling elderly, for each additional unmet IADL need, subjects were 1.70 (95% CI: 1.11-2.61) times more likely to report poorer SRH. For each additional unmet PADL need, subjects were 2.26 (95% CI: 1.31-3.91) times more likely to report poorer SRH. Subjects at increased risk of malnutrition, with greater comorbidity and whose income was insufficient to meet their needs were also more likely to report poorer SRH. After adjustment for important correlates, unmet PADL and IADL needs retain a statistically significant association with poorer SRH, with nutritional status, comorbid conditions, and income satisfaction being important confounders of the relationship.