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1.
Am J Epidemiol ; 193(3): 469-478, 2024 Feb 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37939071

RESUMO

Preterm birth (PTB) remains a key public health issue that disproportionately affects Black individuals. Since spontaneous PTB (sPTB) and medically indicated PTB (mPTB) may have different causes and interventions, we quantified racial disparities for sPTB and mPTB, and we characterized the geographic patterning of these phenotypes, overall and according to race/ethnicity. We examined a pregnancy cohort of 83,952 singleton births at 2 Philadelphia hospitals from 2008-2020, and classified each PTB as sPTB or mPTB. We used binomial regression to quantify the magnitude of racial disparities between non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White individuals, then generated small area estimates by applying a Bayesian model that accounts for small numbers and smooths estimates of PTB risk by borrowing information from neighboring areas. Racial disparities in both sPTB and mPTB were significant (relative risk of sPTB = 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.70, 1.98; relative risk of mPTB = 2.20, 95% confidence interval: 2.00, 2.42). The disparity was 20% greater in mPTB than sPTB. There was substantial geographic variation in PTB, sPTB, and mPTB risks and racial disparity. Our findings underscore the importance of distinguishing PTB phenotypes within the context of public health and preventive medicine. Future work should consider social and environmental exposures that may explain geographic differences in PTB risk and disparities.


Assuntos
Nascimento Prematuro , Gravidez , Feminino , Recém-Nascido , Humanos , Nascimento Prematuro/epidemiologia , Teorema de Bayes , Philadelphia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Etnicidade
2.
Int J Equity Health ; 22(1): 198, 2023 Sep 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37770868

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has shown how intraurban inequalities are likely to reinforce health and social inequalities. Studies at small area level help to visualize social inequialities hidden in large areas as cities or regions. AIM: To describe the spatial patterning of COVID-19 death rates in neighborhoods of the medium-sized city of Bariloche, Argentina, and to explore its relationship with the socioeconomic characteristics of neighborhoods. METHODS: We conducted an ecological study in Bariloche, Argentina. The outcome was counts of COVID-19 deaths between June 2020 and May 2022 obtained from the surveillance system and georeferenced to neighborhoods. We estimated crude- and age-adjusted death rates by neighborhood using a Bayesian approach through a Poisson regression that accounts for spatial-autocorrelation via Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) structure. We also analyzed associations of age-adjusted death rates with area-level socioeconomic indicators. RESULTS: Median COVID-19 death rate across neighborhoods was 17.9 (10th/90th percentile of 6.3/35.2) per 10,000 inhabitants. We found lower age-adjusted rates in the city core and western part of the city. The age-adjusted death rate in the most deprived areas was almost double than in the least deprived areas, with an education-related relative index of inequality (RII) of 2.14 (95% CI 1.55 to 2.96). CONCLUSION: We found spatial heterogeneity and intraurban variability in age-adjusted COVID-19 death rates, with a clear social gradient, and a higher burden in already deprived areas. This highlights the importance of studying inequalities in health outcomes across small areas to inform placed-based interventions.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Humanos , Cidades , Argentina/epidemiologia , Teorema de Bayes , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Mortalidade
3.
J Urban Health ; 100(3): 577-590, 2023 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37225944

RESUMO

Studies of life expectancy (LE) in small areas of cities are relatively common in high-income countries but rare in Latin American countries. Small-area estimation methods can help to describe and quantify inequities in LE between neighborhoods and their predictors. Our objective was to analyze the distribution and spatial patterning of LE across small areas of Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (CABA), Argentina, and its association with socioeconomic characteristics. As part of the SALURBAL project, we used georeferenced death certificates in 2015-2017 for CABA, Argentina. We used a spatial Bayesian Poisson model using the TOPALS method to estimate age- and sex-specific mortality rates. We used life tables to estimate LE at birth. We obtained data on neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics from the 2010 census and analyzed their associations. LE at birth was higher for women (median of across neighborhoods = 81.1 years) compared to men (76.7 years). We found a gap in LE of 9.3 (women) and 14.9 years (men) between areas with the highest and the lowest LE. Better socioeconomic characteristics were associated with higher LE. For example, mean differences in LE at birth in areas with highest versus lowest values of composite SES index were 2.79 years (95% CI: 2.30 to 3.28) in women and 5.61 years (95% CI: 4.98 to 6.24) in men. We found large spatial inequities in LE across neighborhoods of a large city in Latin America, highlighting the importance of place-based policies to address this gap.


Assuntos
Expectativa de Vida , Humanos , Cidades/epidemiologia , Argentina/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Fatores Etários , Adulto Jovem , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Fatores Sexuais , Mortalidade
4.
Epidemiology ; 32(6): 800-806, 2021 11 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34310444

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Surveillance data captured during the COVID-19 pandemic may not be optimal to inform a public health response, because it is biased by imperfect test accuracy, differential access to testing, and uncertainty in date of infection. METHODS: We downloaded COVID-19 time-series surveillance data from the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment by report and illness onset dates for 9 March 2020 to 30 September 2020. We used existing Bayesian methods to first adjust for misclassification in testing and surveillance, followed by deconvolution of date of infection. We propagated forward uncertainty from each step corresponding to 10,000 posterior time-series of doubly adjusted epidemic curves. The effective reproduction number (Rt), a parameter of principal interest in tracking the pandemic, gauged the impact of the adjustment on inference. RESULTS: Observed period prevalence was 1.3%; median of the posterior of true (adjusted) prevalence was 1.7% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 1.4%, 1.8%). Sensitivity of surveillance declined over the course of the epidemic from a median of 88.8% (95% CrI: 86.3%, 89.8%) to a median of 60.8% (95% CrI: 60.1%, 62.6%). The mean (minimum, maximum) values of Rt were higher and more variable by report date, 1.12 (0.77, 4.13), compared to those following adjustment, 1.05 (0.89, 1.73). The epidemic curve by report date tended to overestimate Rt early on and be more susceptible to fluctuations in data. CONCLUSION: Adjusting for epidemic curves based on surveillance data is necessary if estimates of missed cases and the effective reproduction number play a role in management of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Pandemias , Número Básico de Reprodução , Teorema de Bayes , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Incerteza
5.
Epidemiology ; 31(1): 15-21, 2020 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31688128

RESUMO

The growing recognition of often substantial neighborhood variation in health within cities has motivated greater demand for reliable data on small-scale variations in health outcomes. The goal of this article is to explore temporal changes in geographic disparities in obesity prevalence in the City of Philadelphia by race and sex over the period 2000-2015. Our data consist of self-reported survey responses of non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Hispanics from the Southeastern Pennsylvania Household Health Survey. To analyze these data-and to obtain more reliable estimates of the prevalence of obesity-we apply a Bayesian model that simultaneously accounts for spatial-, temporal-, and between-race/ethnicity dependence structures. This approach yields estimates of the obesity prevalence by age, race/ethnicity, sex, and poverty status for each census tract at all time-points in our study period. While the data suggest that the prevalence of obesity has increased at the city-level for men and women of all three race/ethnicities, the magnitude and geographic distribution of these increases differ substantially by race/ethnicity and sex. The method can be flexibly used to describe and visualize spatial heterogeneities in levels, trends, and in disparities. This is useful for targeting, surveillance, and etiologic research.


Assuntos
Negro ou Afro-Americano , Hispânico ou Latino , Obesidade , População Branca , Negro ou Afro-Americano/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Cidades/epidemiologia , Feminino , Hispânico ou Latino/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Obesidade/etnologia , Philadelphia/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Autorrelato , Análise Espaço-Temporal , População Branca/estatística & dados numéricos
6.
J Urban Health ; 96(3): 497-506, 2019 06.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30993542

RESUMO

Despite mounting evidence that urban greenspace protects against mortality in adults, few studies have explored the relationship between greenspace and death among infants. Here, we describe results from an analysis of associations between greenness and infant mortality in Philadelphia, PA. We used images of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), derived from processed satellite data, to estimate greenness density in each census tract. We linked these data with census tract level counts of total infant mortality cases (n = 963) and births (n = 113,610) in years 2010-2014, and used Bayesian spatial areal unit, conditional autoregressive models to estimate associations between greenness and infant mortality. The models included a set of random effects to account for spatial autocorrelation between neighboring census tracts. Infant mortality counts were modeled using a Poisson distribution, and the logarithm of total births in each census tract was specified as the offset term. The following variables were included as potential confounders and effect modifiers: percentage non-Hispanic black, percentage living below the poverty line, an indicator of housing quality, and population density. In adjusted models, the rate of infant mortality was 27% higher in less green compared to more green tracts (95% CI 1.02-1.59). These results contribute further evidence that greenspace may be a health promoting environmental asset.


Assuntos
Meio Ambiente , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Plantas , Adulto , Teorema de Bayes , Feminino , Habitação , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Philadelphia/epidemiologia , Densidade Demográfica , Análise Espacial
7.
Prev Chronic Dis ; 16: E76, 2019 06 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31198162

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: CDC WONDER is a system developed to promote information-driven decision making and provide access to detailed public health information to the general public. Although CDC WONDER contains a wealth of data, any counts fewer than 10 are suppressed for confidentiality reasons, resulting in left-censored data. The objective of this analysis was to describe methods for the analysis of highly censored data. METHODS: A substitution approach was compared with 1) a simple, nonspatial Bayesian model that smooths rates toward their statewide averages and 2) a more complex Bayesian model that accounts for spatial and between-age sources of dependence. Age group-specific county-level data on heart disease mortality were used for the comparisons. RESULTS: Although the substitution and nonspatial approach provided age-standardized rate estimates that were more highly correlated with the true rate estimates, the estimates from the spatial Bayesian model provided a superior compromise between goodness-of-fit and model complexity, as measured by the deviance information criterion. In addition, the spatial Bayesian model provided rate estimates with greater precision than the nonspatial approach; in contrast, the substitution approach did not provide estimates of uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Because of the ability to account for multiple sources of dependence and the flexibility to include covariate information, the use of spatial Bayesian models should be considered when analyzing highly censored data from CDC WONDER.


Assuntos
Bases de Dados Factuais , Tomada de Decisões , Mortalidade , Sistemas On-Line , Saúde Pública , Adulto , Teorema de Bayes , Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. , Epidemiologia , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Análise Multivariada , Vigilância da População , Software , Estados Unidos
8.
Prev Chronic Dis ; 16: E38, 2019 03 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30925140

RESUMO

Accurate and precise estimates of local-level epidemiologic measures are critical to informing policy and program decisions, but they often require advanced statistical knowledge, programming/coding skills, and extensive computing power. In response, we developed the Rate Stabilizing Tool (RST), an ArcGIS-based tool that enables users to input their own record-level data to generate more reliable age-standardized measures of chronic disease (eg, prevalence rates, mortality rates) or other population health outcomes at the county or census tract levels. The RST uses 2 forms of empirical Bayesian modeling (nonspatial and spatial) to estimate age-standardized rates and 95% credible intervals for user-specified geographic units. The RST also provides indicators of the reliability of point estimates. In addition to reviewing the RST's statistical techniques, we present results from a simulation study that illustrates the key benefit of smoothing. We demonstrate the dramatic reduction in root mean-squared error (rMSE), indicating a better compromise between accuracy and stability for both smoothing approaches relative to the unsmoothed estimates. Finally, we provide an example of the RST's use. This example uses heart disease mortality data for North Carolina census tracts to map the RST output, including reliability of estimates, and demonstrates a subsequent statistical test.


Assuntos
Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Modelos Estatísticos , Análise Espacial , Fatores Etários , Teorema de Bayes , Doença Crônica/epidemiologia , Sistemas de Informação Geográfica , Cardiopatias/mortalidade , Humanos , North Carolina/epidemiologia , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes
9.
Circulation ; 133(12): 1171-80, 2016 Mar 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27002081

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Although many studies have documented the dramatic declines in heart disease mortality in the United States at the national level, little attention has been given to the temporal changes in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: Age-adjusted and spatially smoothed county-level heart disease death rates were calculated for 2-year intervals from 1973 to 1974 to 2009 to 2010 for those aged ≥35 years. Heart disease deaths were defined according to the International Classification of Diseases codes for diseases of the heart in the eighth, ninth, and tenth revisions of the International Classification of Diseases. A fully Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to produce precise rate estimates, even in counties with small populations. A substantial shift in the concentration of high-rate counties from the Northeast to the Deep South was observed, along with a concentration of slow-decline counties in the South and a nearly 2-fold increase in the geographic inequality among counties. CONCLUSIONS: The dramatic change in the geographic patterns of heart disease mortality during 40 years highlights the importance of small-area surveillance to reveal patterns that are hidden at the national level, gives communities the historical context for understanding their current burden of heart disease, and provides important clues for understanding the determinants of the geographic disparities in heart disease mortality.


Assuntos
Cardiopatias/mortalidade , Adulto , Idoso , Teorema de Bayes , Feminino , Geografia Médica , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Mortalidade/tendências , Vigilância da População , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
10.
Ann Occup Hyg ; 60(1): 56-73, 2016 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26209598

RESUMO

Classical statistical methods for analyzing exposure data with values below the detection limits are well described in the occupational hygiene literature, but an evaluation of a Bayesian approach for handling such data is currently lacking. Here, we first describe a Bayesian framework for analyzing censored data. We then present the results of a simulation study conducted to compare the ß-substitution method with a Bayesian method for exposure datasets drawn from lognormal distributions and mixed lognormal distributions with varying sample sizes, geometric standard deviations (GSDs), and censoring for single and multiple limits of detection. For each set of factors, estimates for the arithmetic mean (AM), geometric mean, GSD, and the 95th percentile (X0.95) of the exposure distribution were obtained. We evaluated the performance of each method using relative bias, the root mean squared error (rMSE), and coverage (the proportion of the computed 95% uncertainty intervals containing the true value). The Bayesian method using non-informative priors and the ß-substitution method were generally comparable in bias and rMSE when estimating the AM and GM. For the GSD and the 95th percentile, the Bayesian method with non-informative priors was more biased and had a higher rMSE than the ß-substitution method, but use of more informative priors generally improved the Bayesian method's performance, making both the bias and the rMSE more comparable to the ß-substitution method. An advantage of the Bayesian method is that it provided estimates of uncertainty for these parameters of interest and good coverage, whereas the ß-substitution method only provided estimates of uncertainty for the AM, and coverage was not as consistent. Selection of one or the other method depends on the needs of the practitioner, the availability of prior information, and the distribution characteristics of the measurement data. We suggest the use of Bayesian methods if the practitioner has the computational resources and prior information, as the method would generally provide accurate estimates and also provides the distributions of all of the parameters, which could be useful for making decisions in some applications.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Limite de Detecção , Modelos Estatísticos , Exposição Ocupacional/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Ocupacional , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Exposição Ocupacional/análise , Medição de Risco/métodos , Tamanho da Amostra
11.
Biometrics ; 71(3): 575-84, 2015 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25898989

RESUMO

Stochastic process models are widely employed for analyzing spatiotemporal datasets in various scientific disciplines including, but not limited to, environmental monitoring, ecological systems, forestry, hydrology, meteorology, and public health. After inferring on a spatiotemporal process for a given dataset, inferential interest may turn to estimating rates of change, or gradients, over space and time. This manuscript develops fully model-based inference on spatiotemporal gradients under continuous space, continuous time settings. Our contribution is to offer, within a flexible spatiotemporal process model setting, a framework to estimate arbitrary directional gradients over space at any given timepoint, temporal derivatives at any given spatial location and, finally, mixed spatiotemporal gradients that reflect rapid change in spatial gradients over time and vice-versa. We achieve such inference without compromising on rich and flexible spatiotemporal process models and use nonseparable covariance structures. We illustrate our methodology using a simulated data example and subsequently apply it to a dataset of daily PM2.5 concentrations in California, where the spatiotemporal gradient process reveals the effects of California's unique topography on pollution and detects the aftermath of a devastating series of wildfires.


Assuntos
Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Teorema de Bayes , Incêndios/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Estatísticos , Material Particulado/análise , Análise Espaço-Temporal , Poluição do Ar/análise , California , Simulação por Computador , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Humanos , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Sensibilidade e Especificidade
12.
Prev Sci ; 16(2): 254-64, 2015 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24337980

RESUMO

Although numerous studies have found a positive association between the density of alcohol establishments and various types of crime, few have examined how neighborhood attributes (e.g., schools, parks) could moderate this association. We used data from Minneapolis, MN with neighborhood as the unit of analysis (n = 83). We examined eight types of crime (assault, rape, robbery, vandalism, nuisance crime, public alcohol consumption, driving while intoxicated, underage alcohol possession/consumption) and measured density as the total number of establishments per roadway mile. Neighborhood attributes assessed as potential moderators included non-alcohol businesses, schools, parks, religious institutions, neighborhood activism, neighborhood quality, and number of condemned houses. Using Bayesian techniques, we created a model for each crime outcome (accounting for spatial auto-correlation and controlling for relevant demographics) with an interaction term (moderator × density) to test each potential moderating effect. Few interaction terms were statistically significant. The presence of at least one college was the only neighborhood attribute that consistently moderated the density-crime association, with the presence of a college attenuating the association between the density and three types of crime (assaults, nuisance crime, and public consumption). However, caution should be used when interpreting the moderating effect of college presence because of the small number of colleges in our sample. The lack of moderating effects of neighborhood attributes, except for presence of a college, suggests that the addition of alcohol establishments to any neighborhood, regardless of its other attributes, could result in an increase in a wide range of crime.


Assuntos
Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas , Crime , Características de Residência , Restaurantes , Humanos , Minnesota
13.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol ; 49: 100649, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38876562

RESUMO

The incidence of low birthweight is a common measure of public health due to the increased risk of complications associated with infants having low and very low birthweights. Moreover, many factors that increase the risk of an infant having a low birthweight can be linked to the mother's socioeconomic status, leading to large racial/ethnic disparities in its incidence. Our objective is thus to analyze the incidence of low and very low birthweight in Pennsylvania counties by race/ethnicity. Due to the small number of births in many Pennsylvania counties when stratified by race/ethnicity, our methods must walk a fine line: While we wish to leverage spatial structure to improve the precision of our estimates, we also wish to avoid oversmoothing the data, which can yield spurious conclusions. As such, we develop a framework by which we can measure (and control) the informativeness of our spatial model. To analyze the data, we first model the Pennsylvania birth data using the conditional autoregressive model to demonstrate the extent to which it can lead to oversmoothing. We then reanalyze the data using our proposed framework and highlight its ability to detect (or not detect) evidence of racial/ethnic disparities in the incidence of low birthweight.


Assuntos
Recém-Nascido de Baixo Peso , Análise Espacial , Humanos , Pennsylvania/epidemiologia , Incidência , Recém-Nascido , Feminino , Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Masculino , Grupos Raciais/estatística & dados numéricos , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos
14.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol ; 49: 100652, 2024 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38876565

RESUMO

Racialized economic segregation, a key metric that simultaneously accounts for spatial, social and income polarization in communities, has been linked to adverse health outcomes, including morbidity and mortality. Due to the spatial nature of this metric, the association between health outcomes and racialized economic segregation could also change with space. Most studies assessing the relationship between racialized economic segregation and health outcomes have always treated racialized economic segregation as a fixed effect and ignored the spatial nature of it. This paper proposes a two-stage Bayesian statistical framework that provides a broad, flexible approach to studying the spatially varying association between premature mortality and racialized economic segregation while accounting for neighborhood-level latent health factors across US counties. The two-stage framework reduces the dimensionality of spatially correlated data and highlights the importance of accounting for spatial autocorrelation in racialized economic segregation measures, in health equity focused settings.


Assuntos
Teorema de Bayes , Mortalidade Prematura , Segregação Social , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Análise Espacial , Masculino , Feminino , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos
15.
Health Place ; 89: 103282, 2024 Jun 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38838581

RESUMO

Livability, or how a place and its systems (e.g., housing, transportation) supports the ability to lead a livable life, is a determinant of health. There is a lack of standard, validated measures to assess livability in the US. This study employed factor analytic methods to create measures of livability in Connecticut using data from the DataHaven Community Wellbeing Survey (DCWS) (n = 32,262). Results identified a 3-factor model (safety, opportunity, and infrastructure) as the best fit, explaining 69% of the variance in survey items. Newly created livability measures had high internal consistency, in addition to high convergent validity with other area-level measures.

16.
Alcohol Clin Exp Res ; 36(8): 1468-73, 2012 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22587231

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have found that areas with higher alcohol establishment density are more likely to have higher violent crime rates, but many of these studies did not assess the differential effects of type of establishments or the effects on multiple categories of crime. In this study, we assess whether alcohol establishment density is associated with 4 categories of violent crime and whether the strength of the associations varies by type of violent crime and by on-premise establishments (e.g., bars, restaurants) versus off-premise establishments (e.g., liquor and convenience stores). METHODS: Data come from the city of Minneapolis, Minnesota in 2009 and were aggregated and analyzed at the neighborhood level. Across the 83 neighborhoods in Minneapolis, we examined 4 categories of violent crime: assault, rape, robbery, and total violent crime. We used a Bayesian hierarchical inference approach to model the data, accounting for spatial auto-correlation and controlling for relevant neighborhood demographics. Models were estimated for total alcohol establishment density as well as separately for on-premise establishments and off-premise establishments. RESULTS: Positive, statistically significant associations were observed for total alcohol establishment density and each of the violent crime outcomes. We estimate that a 3.9 to 4.3% increase across crime categories would result from a 20% increase in neighborhood establishment density. The associations between on-premise density and each of the individual violent crime outcomes were also all positive and significant and similar in strength as for total establishment density. The relationships between off-premise density and the crime outcomes were all positive but not significant for rape or total violent crime, and the strength of the associations was weaker than those for total and on-premise density. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study, combined with earlier findings, provide more evidence that community leaders should be cautious about increasing the density of alcohol establishments within their neighborhoods.


Assuntos
Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/epidemiologia , Crime/estatística & dados numéricos , População Urbana , Violência/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto , Fatores Etários , Idoso , Algoritmos , Teorema de Bayes , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , Demografia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Minnesota/epidemiologia , Distribuição de Poisson , Estupro/estatística & dados numéricos , Características de Residência , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adulto Jovem
17.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol ; 42: 100508, 2022 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35934322

RESUMO

We examined whether race/ethnic-specific social cohesion is associated with race/ethnic-specific HIV diagnosis rates using Bayesian space-time zero-inflated Poisson multivariable models, across 376 Census tracts. Social cohesion data were from the Southeastern Pennsylvania Household Health Survey, 2008-2015 and late HIV diagnosis data from eHARS system, 2009-2016. Areas where trust in neighbors reported by Black/African Americans was medium (compared to low) had lower rates of late HIV diagnosis among Black/African Americans (Relative Risk (RR)=0.52, 95% credible interval (CrI)= 0.34, 0.80). In contrast, areas where trust in neighbors reported by Black/African Americans were highest had lower late HIV diagnosis rates among Whites (RR=0.35, 95% CrI= 0.16, 0.76). Race/ethnic-specific differences in social cohesion may have implications for designing interventions aimed at modifying area-level social factors to reduce racial disparities in late HIV diagnosis.


Assuntos
Negro ou Afro-Americano , Infecções por HIV , Características de Residência , Coesão Social , Teorema de Bayes , Infecções por HIV/diagnóstico , Infecções por HIV/etnologia , Humanos , Determinantes Sociais da Saúde , População Branca
18.
Ann Work Expo Health ; 66(Suppl 1): i89-i110, 2022 04 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33009797

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill involved thousands of workers and volunteers to mitigate the oil release and clean-up after the spill. Health concerns for these participants led to the initiation of a prospective epidemiological study (GuLF STUDY) to investigate potential adverse health outcomes associated with the oil spill response and clean-up (OSRC). Characterizing the chemical exposures of the OSRC workers was an essential component of the study. Workers on the four oil rig vessels mitigating the spill and located within a 1852 m (1 nautical mile) radius of the damaged wellhead [the Discoverer Enterprise (Enterprise), the Development Driller II (DDII), the Development Driller III (DDIII), and the HelixQ4000] had some of the greatest potential for chemical exposures. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this paper is to characterize potential personal chemical exposures via the inhalation route for workers on those four rig vessels. Specifically, we presented our methodology and descriptive statistics of exposure estimates for total hydrocarbons (THCs), benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, xylene, and n-hexane (BTEX-H) for various job groups to develop exposure groups for the GuLF STUDY cohort. METHODS: Using descriptive information associated with the measurements taken on various jobs on these rig vessels and with job titles from study participant responses to the study questionnaire, job groups [unique job/rig/time period (TP) combinations] were developed to describe groups of workers with the same or closely related job titles. A total of 500 job groups were considered for estimation using the available 8139 personal measurements. We used a univariate Bayesian model to analyze the THC measurements and a bivariate Bayesian regression framework to jointly model the measurements of THC and each of the BTEX-H chemicals separately, both models taking into account the many measurements that were below the analytic limit of detection. RESULTS: Highest THC exposures occurred in TP1a and TP1b, which was before the well was mechanically capped. The posterior medians of the arithmetic mean (AM) ranged from 0.11 ppm ('Inside/Other', TP1b, DDII; and 'Driller', TP3, DDII) to 14.67 ppm ('Methanol Operations', TP1b, Enterprise). There were statistical differences between the THC AMs by broad job groups, rigs, and time periods. The AMs for BTEX-H were generally about two to three orders of magnitude lower than the THC AMs, with benzene and ethylbenzene measurements being highly censored. CONCLUSIONS: Our results add new insights to the limited literature on exposures associated with oil spill responses and support the current epidemiologic investigation of potential adverse health effects of the oil spill.


Assuntos
Exposição Ocupacional , Poluição por Petróleo , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Benzeno/análise , Exposição por Inalação , Exposição Ocupacional/análise , Poluição por Petróleo/efeitos adversos , Estudos Prospectivos
19.
Ann Work Expo Health ; 66(Suppl 1): i71-i88, 2022 04 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34473212

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to (i) determine correlations between measurements of THC and of BTEX-H, (ii) apply these linear relationships to predict BTEX-H from measured THC, (iii) use these correlations as informative priors in Bayesian analyses to estimate exposures. METHODS: We used a Bayesian left-censored bivariate framework for all 3 objectives. First, we modeled the relationships (i.e. correlations) between THC and each BTEX-H chemical for various overarching groups of measurements using linear regression to determine if correlations derived from linear relationships differed by various exposure determinants. We then used the same linear regression relationships to predict (or impute) BTEX-H measurements from THC when only THC measurements were available. Finally, we used the same linear relationships as priors for the final exposure models that used real and predicted data to develop exposure estimate statistics for each individual exposure group. RESULTS: Correlations between measurements of THC and each of the BTEX-H chemicals (n = 120 for each of BTEX, 36 for n-hexane) differed substantially by area of the Gulf of Mexico and by time period that reflected different oil-spill related exposure opportunities. The correlations generally exceeded 0.5. Use of regression relationships to impute missing data resulted in the addition of >23 000 n-hexane and 541 observations for each of BTEX. The relationships were then used as priors for the calculation of exposure statistics while accounting for censored measurement data. CONCLUSIONS: Taking advantage of observed relationships between THC and BTEX-H allowed us to develop robust exposure estimates where a large amount of data were missing, strengthening our exposure estimation process for the epidemiologic study.


Assuntos
Benzeno , Exposição Ocupacional , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Benzeno/análise , Derivados de Benzeno , Hexanos , Hidrocarbonetos/análise , Exposição Ocupacional/análise , Tolueno/análise , Xilenos/análise
20.
BMJ Open ; 12(9): e061277, 2022 09 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36691155

RESUMO

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate variability in life expectancy at birth in small areas, describe the spatial pattern of life expectancy, and examine associations between small-area socioeconomic characteristics and life expectancy in a mid-sized city of a middle-income country. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, using data from death registries (2015-2018) and socioeconomic characteristics data from the 2010 national population census. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: 40 898 death records in 99 small areas of the city of Córdoba, Argentina. We summarised variability in life expectancy at birth by using the difference between the 90th and 10th percentile of the distribution of life expectancy across small areas (P90-P10 gap) and evaluated associations with small-area socioeconomic characteristics by calculating a Slope Index of Inequality in linear regression. PRIMARY OUTCOME: Life expectancy at birth. RESULTS: The median life expectancy at birth was 80.3 years in women (P90-P10 gap=3.2 years) and 75.1 years in men (P90-P10 gap=4.6 years). We found higher life expectancies in the core and northwest parts of the city, especially among women. We found positive associations between life expectancy and better small-area socioeconomic characteristics, especially among men. Mean differences in life expectancy between the highest versus the lowest decile of area characteristics in men (women) were 3.03 (2.58), 3.52 (2.56) and 2.97 (2.31) years for % adults with high school education or above, % persons aged 15-17 attending school, and % households with water inside the dwelling, respectively. Lower values of % overcrowded households and unemployment rate were associated with longer life expectancy: mean differences comparing the lowest versus the highest decile were 3.03 and 2.73 in men and 2.57 and 2.34 years in women, respectively. CONCLUSION: Life expectancy is substantially heterogeneous and patterned by socioeconomic characteristics in a mid-sized city of a middle-income country, suggesting that small-area inequities in life expectancy are not limited to large cities or high-income countries.


Assuntos
Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Expectativa de Vida , Adulto , Masculino , Recém-Nascido , Humanos , Feminino , Cidades , Estudos Transversais , Argentina , Fatores Socioeconômicos
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