Modelling the impact of climate change on dengue outbreaks and future spatiotemporal shift in Pakistan.

Climate change has a significant impact on the intensity and spread of dengue outbreaks. The objective of this study is to assess the number of dengue transmission suitable days (DTSD) in Pakistan for the baseline (1976-2005) and future (2006-2035, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) periods under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Moreover, potential spatiotemporal shift and future hotspots of DTSD due to climate change were also identified. The analysis is based on fourteen CMIP5 models that have been downscaled and bias-corrected with quantile delta mapping technique, which addresses data stationarity constraints while preserving future climate signal. The results show a higher DTSD during the monsoon season in the baseline in the study area except for Sindh (SN) and South Punjab (SP). In future periods, there is a temporal shift (extension) towards pre- and post-monsoon. During the baseline period, the top ten hotspot cities with a higher frequency of DTSD are Karachi, Hyderabad, Sialkot, Jhelum, Lahore, Islamabad, Balakot, Peshawar, Kohat, and Faisalabad. However, as a result of climate change, there is an elevation-dependent shift in DTSD to high-altitude cities, e.g. in the 2020s, Kotli, Muzaffarabad, and Drosh; in the 2050s, Garhi Dopatta, Quetta, and Zhob; and in the 2080s, Chitral and Bunji. Karachi, Islamabad, and Balakot will remain highly vulnerable to dengue outbreaks for all the future periods of the twenty-first century. Our findings also indicate that DTSD would spread across Pakistan, particularly in areas where we have never seen dengue infections previously. The good news is that the DTSD in current hotspot cities is projected to decrease in the future due to climate change. There is also a temporal shift in the region during the post- and pre-monsoon season, which provides suitable breeding conditions for dengue mosquitos due to freshwater; therefore, local authorities need to take adaption and mitigation actions.

Impacts of teleconnection patterns on South America climate.

Oceanic heat sources disturb the atmosphere, which, to come back to its initial state, disperses waves. These waves affect the climate in remote regions, characterizing the teleconnection patterns. In this study, we describe eight teleconnection patterns that affect South America climate: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Tropical Atlantic Dipole (TAD), the South Atlantic Dipole (SAD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Precipitation and winds at 850-hPa anomalies, considering these teleconnection patterns in ENSO neutral periods, are also presented. Overall, southeastern South America and the north sector of the North and Northeast regions of Brazil are the most affected areas by the teleconnection patterns. In general, there is a precipitation dipole pattern between these regions during each teleconnection pattern.

The state of the art and fundamental aspects of regional climate modeling in South America.

Regional climate models have been used since 1989 in order to improve climate simulation in regions where mesoscale forcings modulate the regional climate. These models are driven by time-dependent lateral boundary conditions from global climate models or reanalysis, and this process is called dynamical downscaling. Here, we review the evolution of regional climate modeling, as well as present the studies developed for South America.

Subtropical cyclones over the oceanic basins: a review.

Subtropical cyclones are hybrid systems presenting a warm core at low levels, as tropical cyclones, and a cold core at upper levels, as extratropical cyclones. Their genesis can be as proper subtropical system or from the transitions (extratropical to subtropical or tropical to subtropical). Subtropical cyclones occur mostly over the sea and generate intense near surface winds with great impacts on human activities and ecosystems. We present a review of the main features, as obtained from observations and numerical simulations, for subtropical cyclone development over the major oceanic basins.

Avaliação da influência das condições meteorológicas em dias com altas concentrações de material particulado na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro / Evaluation of weather conditions in days with high particulate matter concentrations in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro

RESUMO: Na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro, altos índices de concentrações de material particulado inalável (PM10) com violações dos limites estabelecidos pela Resolução CONAMA n0 03/90 são registrados rotineiramente. Analisando dados registrados entre 1998 e 2008, foram identificados 146 dias com concentrações acima dos valores estabelecidos. Nesses dias, foi possível verificar a influência da atuação do Anticiclone Subtropical do Atlântico Sul, a ausência de precipitação e a ocorrência de inversões térmicas na baixa troposfera, o que confirma a forte relação entre a ocorrência de altas concentrações de PM10 e as condições atmosféricas na região.

ABSTRACT: In the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeiro, high levels of particulate matter concentrations (PM10) with violations of the limits established by CONAMA Resolution 03/90 are routinely recorded. Analyzing data recorded between 1998 and 2008, 146 days with concentrations above these values were identified. In those days, it was possible to verify the influence of South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone, the lack of precipitation and temperature inversions in the lower troposphere, which confirm the strong relationship between high PM10 concentration and the atmospheric conditions in region.