Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103 -104  m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global-change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.

Energy landscapes shape animal movement ecology.

The metabolic costs of animal movement have been studied extensively under laboratory conditions, although frequently these are a poor approximation of the costs of operating in the natural, heterogeneous environment. Construction of "energy landscapes," which relate animal locality to the cost of transport, can clarify whether, to what extent, and how movement properties are attributable to environmental heterogeneity. Although behavioral responses to aspects of the energy landscape are well documented in some fields (notably, the selection of tailwinds by aerial migrants) and scales (typically large), the principles of the energy landscape extend across habitat types and spatial scales. We provide a brief synthesis of the mechanisms by which environmentally driven changes in the cost of transport can modulate the behavioral ecology of animal movement in different media, develop example cost functions for movement in heterogeneous environments, present methods for visualizing these energy landscapes, and derive specific predictions of expected outcomes from individual- to population- and species-level processes. Animals modulate a suite of movement parameters (e.g., route, speed, timing of movement, and tortuosity) in relation to the energy landscape, with the nature of their response being related to the energy savings available. Overall, variation in movement costs influences the quality of habitat patches and causes nonrandom movement of individuals between them. This can provide spatial and/or temporal structure to a range of population- and species-level processes, ultimately including gene flow. Advances in animal-attached technology and geographic information systems are opening up new avenues for measuring and mapping energy landscapes that are likely to provide new insight into their influence in animal ecology.

The dynamics of the tundra-taiga boundary: an overview and suggested coordinated and integrated approach to research.

The tundra-taiga boundary stretches for more than 13,400 km around the Northern Hemisphere and is probably the Earth's greatest vegetation transition. The trees that define the boundary have been sensitive to climate changes in the past and models of future vegetation distribution suggest a rapid and dramatic invasion of the tundra by the taiga. Such changes would generate both positive and negative feedbacks to the climate system and the balance could result in a net warming effect. However, the boundary is becoming increasingly affected by human activities that remove trees and degrade forest-tundra into tundra-like areas. Because of the vastness and remoteness of the tundra-taiga boundary, and of methodological problems such as problematic definitions and lack of standardized methods to record the location and characteristics of the ecotone, a project group has been established under the auspices of the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC). This paper summarizes the initial output of the group and focuses on our uncertainties in understanding the current processes at the tundra-taiga boundary and the conflicts between model predictions of changes in the location of the boundary and contrasting recently observed changes due to human activities. Finally, we present recommendations for a coordinated international approach to the problem and invite the international community to join us in reducing the uncertainties about the dynamics of the ecotone and their consequences.