Sensitivity of North American grassland birds to weather and climate variability.

Grassland birds in North America have declined sharply over the last 60 years, driven by the widespread loss and degradation of grassland habitats. Climate change is occurring more rapidly in grasslands relative to some other ecosystems, and exposure to extreme and novel climate conditions may affect grassland bird ecology and demographics. To determine the potential effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds, we conducted a systematic review of relationships between temperature and precipitation and demographic responses in grassland bird species of North America. Based on 124 independent studies, we used a vote-counting approach to quantify the frequency and direction of significant effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds. Grassland birds tended to experience positive and negative effects of higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Moderate, sustained increases in mean temperature and precipitation benefitted some species, but extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall often reduced abundance and nest success. These patterns varied among climate regions, temporal scales of temperature and precipitation (<1 or ≥1 month), and taxa. The sensitivity of grassland bird populations to extreme weather and altered climate variability will likely be mediated by regional climates, interaction with other stressors, life-history strategies of various species, and species' tolerances for novel climate conditions.

Sensibilidad de las aves norteamericanas de pastizales ante la variabilidad climática y el clima Resumen Las aves de los pastizales norteamericanos han declinado gravemente durante los últimos 60 años, principalmente debido a la pérdida generalizada y la degradación del hábitat. El cambio climático ocurre cada vez más rápido en los pastizales en relación con otros ecosistemas, y la exposición a las condiciones climáticas nuevas y extremas puede afectar la demografía y la ecología aviar en los pastizales. Realizamos un análisis sistemático de las relaciones entre la temperatura y la precipitación y las respuestas demográficas de las especies de aves de pastizales en Norteamérica para determinar los efectos potenciales del clima y la variabilidad climática sobre estas aves. Usamos un método de conteo de votos basado en 124 estudios independientes para cuantificar la frecuencia y dirección de los efectos significativos del clima y la variabilidad climática sobre las aves de pastizal. Las aves de pastizal tendieron a experimentar los efectos positivos y negativos de las altas temperaturas y la precipitación alterada. El incremento moderado y sostenido en las medias de temperatura y precipitación beneficiaron a algunas especies, pero el calor extremo, la sequía y las lluvias torrenciales redujeron con frecuencia la abundancia y el éxito de anidación. Estos patrones variaron entre las regiones climáticas, las escalas temporales de temperatura y precipitación (< 1 mes o ≥ 1 mes) y los taxones. La sensibilidad de las poblaciones de aves de pastizal ante el clima extremo y la variabilidad climática alterada probablemente será mediada por los climas regionales, la interacción con otros estresantes, las estrategias de vida de varias especies y la tolerancia de las especies a las condiciones climáticas nuevas.

Effects of temperature and precipitation on grassland bird nesting success as mediated by patch size.

Grassland birds are declining faster than any other bird guild across North America. Shrinking ranges and population declines are attributed to widespread habitat loss and increasingly fragmented landscapes of agriculture and other land uses that are misaligned with grassland bird conservation. Concurrent with habitat loss and degradation, temperate grasslands have been disproportionally affected by climate change relative to most other terrestrial biomes. Distributions of grassland birds often correlate with gradients in climate, but few researchers have explored the consequences of weather on the demography of grassland birds inhabiting a range of grassland fragments. To do so, we modeled the effects of temperature and precipitation on nesting success rates of 12 grassland bird species inhabiting a range of grassland patches across North America (21,000 nests from 81 individual studies). Higher amounts of precipitation in the preceding year were associated with higher nesting success, but wetter conditions during the active breeding season reduced nesting success. Extremely cold or hot conditions during the early breeding season were associated with lower rates of nesting success. The direct and indirect influence of temperature and precipitation on nesting success was moderated by grassland patch size. The positive effects of precipitation in the preceding year on nesting success were strongest in relatively small grassland patches and had little effect in large patches. Conversely, warm temperatures reduced nesting success in small grassland patches but increased nesting success in large patches. Mechanisms underlying these differences may be patch-size-induced variation in microclimates and predator activity. Although the exact cause is unclear, large grassland patches, the most common metric of grassland conservation, appears to moderate the effects of weather on grassland-bird demography and could be an effective component of climate-change adaptation.

Identifying mismatches between conservation area networks and vulnerable populations using spatial randomization.

Grassland birds are among the most globally threatened bird groups due to substantial degradation of native grassland habitats. However, the current network of grassland conservation areas may not be adequate for halting population declines and biodiversity loss. Here, we evaluate a network of grassland conservation areas within Wisconsin, U.S.A., that includes both large Focal Landscapes and smaller targeted conservation areas (e.g., Grassland Bird Conservation Areas, GBCAs) established within them. To date, this conservation network has lacked baseline information to assess whether the current placement of these conservation areas aligns with population hot spots of grassland-dependent taxa. To do so, we fitted data from thousands of avian point-count surveys collected by citizen scientists as part of Wisconsin's Breeding Bird Atlas II with multinomial N-mixture models to estimate habitat-abundance relationships, develop spatially explicit predictions of abundance, and establish ecological baselines within priority conservation areas for a suite of obligate grassland songbirds. Next, we developed spatial randomization tests to evaluate the placement of this conservation network relative to randomly placed conservation networks. Overall, less than 20% of species statewide populations were found within the current grassland conservation network. Spatial tests demonstrated a high representation of this bird assemblage within the entire conservation network, but with a bias toward birds associated with moderately tallgrasses relative to those associated with shortgrasses or tallgrasses. We also found that GBCAs had higher representation at Focal Landscape rather than statewide scales. Here, we demonstrated how combining citizen science data with hierarchical modeling is a powerful tool for estimating ecological baselines and conducting large-scale evaluations of an existing conservation network for multiple grassland birds. Our flexible spatial randomization approach offers the potential to be applied to other protected area networks and serves as a complementary tool for conservation planning efforts globally.

Diel patterns of predation and fledging at nests of four species of grassland songbirds.

Although it is common for nestlings to exhibit a strong bias for fledging in the morning, the mechanisms underlying this behavior are not well understood. Avoiding predation risk has been proposed as a likely mechanism by a number of researchers. We used video surveillance records from studies of grassland birds nesting in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin to determine the diel pattern of nest predation and fledging patterns of four ground-nesting obligate grassland passerines (Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis), Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus), and Eastern Meadowlark (Sturnella magna)). We used the nest predation pattern as a surrogate for predation activity to test whether nestlings minimized predation risk by avoiding fledging when predation activity was high and preferentially fledging when predation risk was low. Predation activity was significantly lower starting 3 hr before sunrise and ending 3 hr after sunrise, followed by a transition to a period of significantly higher activity lasting for 4 hr, before declining to an average activity level for the rest of the diel period. There was little evidence that the four grassland bird species avoided fledging during the high-risk period and Savannah Sparrow fledged at higher rates during that period. All four species had hours during the low-risk period where they fledged at higher rates, but only Grasshopper Sparrow fledged preferentially during that period. Bobolink and Eastern Meadowlark had multiple hours with high fledging rates throughout the daytime period, resulting in no relationship between probability of fledging and predation risk. Given the species variability in fledging pattern seen in our study, it is unlikely that there is a universal response to any driver that affects time of fledging. Further study is needed to understand the complex interplay between species ecology and drivers such as physiology, energetics, and predation in affecting grassland bird fledging behavior.

A new approach to the study of relationship quality in dolphins: Framework and preliminary results.

Proximity and synchronous behaviours from surface observations have been used to measure association patterns within and between dolphin dyads. To facilitate an investigation of relationship quality in dolphins, we applied a method used for primates and ravens that examined three main components to describe relationships: value, security, and compatibility. Using pilot data from long-term research of two study populations for this preliminary assessment, these three components were extracted from PCA of eight behavioural variables with more than 80 % variance accounted for in both study groups. Only pair swim position differed between groups. Although value, security, and compatibility are abstract terms, each is based on behaviours identified as important in dolphin social life, at least for these two populations. Examining relationship quality in dolphins with a method used to illustrate dyadic differences for primates and ravens allows for a quantitative, comparative assessment of sociality across disparate taxa. Although these species are diverse in their anatomies and in their social habitats (e.g., aquatic, terrestrial, aerial), they may well share the basic societal building blocks in the factors affecting how relationships are formed. We discuss how an examination of these behavioural variables facilitates understanding relationship quality in dolphins, as well as how dolphin relationships fit into the context of social animals' society.

Estimating cause-specific mortality rates using recovered carcasses.

Stranding networks, in which carcasses are recovered and sent to diagnostic laboratories for necropsy and determination of cause of death, have been developed to monitor the health of marine mammal and bird populations. These programs typically accumulate comprehensive, long-term datasets on causes of death that can be used to identify important sources of mortality or changes in mortality patterns that lead to management actions. However, the utility of these data in determining cause-specific mortality rates has not been explored. We present a maximum likelihood-based approach that partitions total mortality rate, estimated by independent sources, into cause-specific mortality rates. We also demonstrate how variance estimates are derived for these rates. We present examples of the method using mortality data for California sea otters (Enhydra lutris nereis) and Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris).

Influence of climate change and postdelisting management on long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's Warbler.

Rapid global climate change is resulting in novel abiotic and biotic conditions and interactions. Identifying management strategies that maximize probability of long-term persistence requires an understanding of the vulnerability of species to environmental changes. We sought to quantify the vulnerability of Kirtland's Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), a rare Neotropical migratory songbird that breeds almost exclusively in the Lower Peninsula of Michigan and winters in the Bahamian Archipelago, to projected environmental changes on the breeding and wintering grounds. We developed a population-level simulation model that incorporates the influence of annual environmental conditions on the breeding and wintering grounds, and parameterized the model using empirical relationships. We simulated independent and additive effects of reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity and quality, and wintering grounds habitat quality, on population viability. Our results indicated the Kirtland's Warbler population is stable under current environmental and management conditions. Reduced breeding grounds habitat quantity resulted in reductions of the stable population size, but did not cause extinction under the scenarios we examined. In contrast, projected large reductions in wintering grounds precipitation caused the population to decline, with risk of extinction magnified when breeding habitat quantity or quality also decreased. Our study indicates that probability of long-term persistence for Kirtland's Warbler will depend on climate change impacts to wintering grounds habitat quality and contributes to the growing literature documenting the importance of considering the full annual cycle for understanding population dynamics of migratory species.

Message in a bottle - The story of floating plastic in the eastern Mediterranean sea.

The Mediterranean Sea is a closed basin with limited water exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar, and sites along its shores show the greatest densities of marine debris in the world. Plastic bottles, which are a growing concern due to high consumption of soft drinks and bottled water, constitute most of the floating marine debris. In this paper we present the transport mechanisms of floating marine debris to and from the Israeli coast using an experimental offshore release and recovery of plastic bottles, with the participation of citizens. Many bottles released near the beach in the south part of Israel, returned to the beach at a short distance and time from the release point. Some release locations had no bottle returns. Ten bottles, released from three locations, were recovered many dozens to hundreds of kilometers from the release point. Since most of the westward water flow in the eastern Mediterranean is subsurface, it was not surprising to find our floating debris only in the east. That makes the Levant basin in the eastern Mediterranean a collection area for floating debris.

Sources, composition and spatial distribution of marine debris along the Mediterranean coast of Israel.

Marine debris (litter) is a complex problem that affects human activities and the marine environment worldwide. The Clean Coast Program in Israel has had some success in keeping most of the coasts clean most of the time, but without understanding the mechanisms of accumulation of marine debris on the coasts of Israel. In 2012, we initiated a study to characterize the types of marine debris, its origins and spatial distribution. Nineteen surveys were done from June 2012 to March 2015 on eight beaches that spanned the coast of Israel. Average debris density was 12.1 items per 100m2 and 90% of the items were plastic. The top debris categories were food wrappers and disposables, plastic bags and cigarette butts. However, there was variation in the top debris categories among the beaches indicating that a flexible approach with multiple options will be important when addressing the marine debris problem.

Beaver Colony Density Trends on the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest, 1987 - 2013.

The North American beaver (Castor canadensis) is a managed species in the United States. In northern Wisconsin, as part of the state-wide beaver management program, the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest removes beavers from targeted trout streams on U.S. Forest Service lands. However, the success of this management program has not been evaluated. Targeted removals comprise only 3% of the annual beaver harvest, a level of effort that may not affect the beaver population. We used colony location data along Forest streams from 1987-2013 (Nicolet, northeast Wisconsin) and 1997-2013 (Chequamegon, northwest Wisconsin) to assess trends in beaver colony density on targeted trout streams compared to non-targeted streams. On the Chequamegon, colony density on non-targeted trout and non-trout streams did not change over time, while colony density on targeted trout streams declined and then stabilized. On the Nicolet, beaver colony density decreased on both non-targeted streams and targeted trout streams. However, colony density on targeted trout streams declined faster. The impact of targeted trapping was similar across the two sides of the Forest (60% reduction relative to non-targeted trout streams). Exploratory analyses of weather influences found that very dry conditions and severe winters were associated with transient reductions in beaver colony density on non-targeted streams on both sides of the Forest. Our findings may help land management agencies weigh more finely calibrated beaver control measures against continued large-scale removal programs.

Spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer.

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal, emerging disease of cervids associated with transmissible protease-resistant prion proteins. The potential for CWD to cause dramatic declines in deer and elk populations and perceived human health risks associated with consuming CWD-contaminated venison have led wildlife agencies to embark on extensive CWD control programs, typically involving culling to reduce deer populations. We characterized the spatial distribution of CWD in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Wisconsin to facilitate CWD management. We found that CWD prevalence declined with distance from a central location, was locally correlated at a scale of 3.6 km, and was correlated with deer habitat abundance. The latter result is consistent with patterns expected for a positive relationship between density and prevalence of CWD. We recommend management activities focused on culling in geographic areas with high prevalence to have the greatest probability of removing infected individuals. Further research is needed to elucidate the factors involved in CWD spread and infection rates, especially the role of density-dependent transmission.

Strategic Grassland Bird Conservation throughout the Annual Cycle: Linking Policy Alternatives, Landowner Decisions, and Biological Population Outcomes.

Grassland bird habitat has declined substantially in the United States. Remaining grasslands are increasingly fragmented, mostly privately owned, and vary greatly in terms of habitat quality and protection status. A coordinated strategic response for grassland bird conservation is difficult, largely due to the scope and complexity of the problem, further compounded by biological, sociological, and economic uncertainties. We describe the results from a collaborative Structured Decision Making (SDM) workshop focused on linking social and economic drivers of landscape change to grassland bird population outcomes. We identified and evaluated alternative strategies for grassland bird conservation using a series of rapid prototype models. We modeled change in grassland and agriculture cover in hypothetical landscapes resulting from different landowner decisions in response to alternative socio-economic conservation policy decisions. Resulting changes in land cover at all three stages of the annual cycle (breeding, wintering, and migration) were used to estimate changes in grassland bird populations. Our results suggest that successful grassland bird conservation may depend upon linkages with ecosystem services on working agricultural lands and grassland-based marketing campaigns to engage the public. With further development, spatial models that link landowner decisions with biological outcomes can be essential tools for making conservation policy decisions. A coordinated non-traditional partnership will likely be necessary to clearly understand and systematically respond to the many conservation challenges facing grassland birds.

Relatively high prevalence of pox-like lesions in Henslow's sparrow (Ammodrammus henslowii) among nine species of migratory grassland passerines in Wisconsin, USA.

Globally, Avipoxvirus species affect over 230 species of wild birds and can significantly impair survival. During banding of nine grassland songbird species (n=346 individuals) in southwestern Wisconsin, USA, we noted species with a 2-6% prevalence of pox-like lesions (possible evidence of current infection) and 4-10% missing digits (potential evidence of past infection). These prevalences approach those recorded among island endemic birds (4-9% and 9-20% for the Galapagos and Hawaii, respectively) for which Avipoxvirus species have been implicated as contributing to dramatic population declines. Henslow's Sparrow Ammodramus henslowii (n=165 individuals) had the highest prevalence of lesions (6.1%) and missing digits (9.7%). Among a subset of 26 Henslow's Sparrows from which blood samples were obtained, none had detectable antibody reactive to fowlpox virus antigen. However, four samples (18%) had antibody to canarypox virus antigen with test sample and negative control ratios (P/N values) ranging from 2.4 to 6.5 (median 4.3). Of four antibody-positive birds, two had lesions recorded (one was also missing a digit), one had digits missing, and one had no signs. Additionally, the birds with lesions or missing digits had higher P/N values than did the antibody-positive bird without missing digits or recorded lesions. This study represents an impetus for considering the impacts and dynamics of disease caused by Avipoxvirus among North American grassland bird species.

Impacts of tree rows on grassland birds and potential nest predators: a removal experiment.

Globally, grasslands and the wildlife that inhabit them are widely imperiled. Encroachment by shrubs and trees has widely impacted grasslands in the past 150 years. In North America, most grassland birds avoid nesting near woody vegetation. Because woody vegetation fragments grasslands and potential nest predator diversity and abundance is often greater along wooded edge and grassland transitions, we measured the impacts of removing rows of trees and shrubs that intersected grasslands on potential nest predators and the three most abundant grassland bird species (Henslow's sparrow [Ammodramus henslowii], Eastern meadowlark [Sturnella magna], and bobolink [Dolichonyx oryzivorus]) at sites in Wisconsin, U.S.A. We monitored 3 control and 3 treatment sites, for 1 yr prior to and 3 yr after tree row removal at the treatment sites. Grassland bird densities increased (2-4 times for bobolink and Henslow's sparrow) and nesting densities increased (all 3 species) in the removal areas compared to control areas. After removals, Henslow's sparrows nested within ≤50 m of the treatment area, where they did not occur when tree rows were present. Most dramatically, activity by woodland-associated predators nearly ceased (nine-fold decrease for raccoon [Procyon lotor]) at the removals and grassland predators increased (up to 27 times activity for thirteen-lined ground squirrel [Ictidomys tridecemlineatus]). Nest success did not increase, likely reflecting the increase in grassland predators. However, more nests were attempted by all 3 species (175 versus 116) and the number of successful nests for bobolinks and Henslow's sparrows increased. Because of gains in habitat, increased use by birds, greater production of young, and the effective removal of woodland-associated predators, tree row removal, where appropriate based on the predator community, can be a beneficial management action for conserving grassland birds and improving fragmented and degraded grassland ecosystems.

Baseline for beached marine debris on Sand Island, Midway Atoll.

Baseline measurements were made of the amount and weight of beached marine debris on Sand Island, Midway Atoll, June 2008-July 2010. On 23 surveys, 32,696 total debris objects (identifiable items and pieces) were collected; total weight was 740.4 kg. Seventy-two percent of the total was pieces; 91% of the pieces were made of plastic materials. Pieces were composed primarily of polyethylene and polypropylene. Identifiable items were 28% of the total; 88% of the identifiable items were in the fishing/aquaculture/shipping-related and beverage/household products-related categories. Identifiable items were lowest during April-August, while pieces were at their lowest during June-August. Sites facing the North Pacific Gyre received the most debris and proportionately more pieces. More debris tended to be found on Sand Island when the Subtropical Convergence Zone was closer to the Atoll. This information can be used for potential mitigation and to understand the impacts of large-scale events such as the 2011 Japanese tsunami.

Trends in marine debris along the U.S. Pacific Coast and Hawai'i 1998-2007.

We assessed amounts, composition, and trends of marine debris for the U.S. Pacific Coast and Hawai'i using National Marine Debris Monitoring Program data. Hawai'i had the highest debris loads; the North Pacific Coast region had the lowest debris loads. The Southern California Bight region had the highest land-based debris loads. Debris loads decreased over time for all source categories in all regions except for land-based and general-source loads in the North Pacific Coast region, which were unchanged. General-source debris comprised 30-40% of the items in all regions. Larger local populations were associated with higher land-based debris loads across regions; the effect declined at higher population levels. Upwelling affected deposition of ocean-based and general-source debris loads but not land-based loads along the Pacific Coast. LNSO decreased debris loads for both land-based and ocean-based debris but not general-source debris in Hawai'i, a more complex climate-ocean effect than had previously been found.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007.

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue.

Chronic wasting disease in free-ranging Wisconsin White-tailed Deer.

Three White-tailed Deer shot within 5 km during the 2001 hunting season in Wisconsin tested positive for chronic wasting disease, a prion disease of cervids. Subsequent sampling within 18 km showed a 3% prevalence (n=476). This discovery represents an important range extension for chronic wasting disease into the eastern United States.