Predicting lymphatic filariasis elimination in data-limited settings: A reconstructive computational framework for combining data generation and model discovery.

Although there is increasing importance placed on the use of mathematical models for the effective design and management of long-term parasite elimination, it is becoming clear that transmission models are most useful when they reflect the processes pertaining to local infection dynamics as opposed to generalized dynamics. Such localized models must also be developed even when the data required for characterizing local transmission processes are limited or incomplete, as is often the case for neglected tropical diseases, including the disease system studied in this work, viz. lymphatic filariasis (LF). Here, we draw on progress made in the field of computational knowledge discovery to present a reconstructive simulation framework that addresses these challenges by facilitating the discovery of both data and models concurrently in areas where we have insufficient observational data. Using available data from eight sites from Nigeria and elsewhere, we demonstrate that our data-model discovery system is able to estimate local transmission models and missing pre-control infection information using generalized knowledge of filarial transmission dynamics, monitoring survey data, and details of historical interventions. Forecasts of the impacts of interventions carried out in each site made by the models estimated using the reconstructed baseline data matched temporal infection observations and provided useful information regarding when transmission interruption is likely to have occurred. Assessments of elimination and resurgence probabilities based on the models also suggest a protective effect of vector control against the reemergence of LF transmission after stopping drug treatments. The reconstructive computational framework for model and data discovery developed here highlights how coupling models with available data can generate new knowledge about complex, data-limited systems, and support the effective management of disease programs in the face of critical data gaps.

Upon entering an age of global ivermectin-based integrated mass drug administration for neglected tropical diseases and malaria.

Ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) in humans to reduce malaria vectors is yet another use for this remarkable medicine whose discoverers shared the 2015 Nobel Prize in Medicine with the discoverer of artemisinin. The malaria community should join those who have long used ivermectin MDA in an integrated battle to break transmission of three vector-borne parasitic diseases.

Malaria prevalence, anemia and baseline intervention coverage prior to mass net distributions in Abia and Plateau States, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Nigeria suffers the world's largest malaria burden, with approximately 51 million cases and 207,000 deaths annually. As part of the country's aim to reduce by 50% malaria-related morbidity and mortality by 2013, it embarked on mass distribution of free long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). METHODS: Prior to net distribution campaigns in Abia and Plateau States, Nigeria, a modified malaria indicator survey was conducted in September 2010 to determine baseline state-level estimates of Plasmodium prevalence, childhood anemia, indoor residual spraying (IRS) coverage and bednet ownership and utilization. RESULTS: Overall age-adjusted prevalence of Plasmodium infection by microscopy was similar between Abia (36.1%, 95% CI: 32.3%-40.1%; n = 2,936) and Plateau (36.6%, 95% CI: 31.3%-42.3%; n = 4,209), with prevalence highest among children 5-9 years. P. malariae accounted for 32.0% of infections in Abia, but only 1.4% of infections in Plateau. More than half of children ≤10 years were anemic, with anemia significantly higher in Abia (76.9%, 95% CI: 72.1%-81.0%) versus Plateau (57.1%, 95% CI: 50.6%-63.4%). Less than 1% of households in Abia (n = 1,305) or Plateau (n = 1,335) received IRS in the 12 months prior to survey. Household ownership of at least one bednet of any type was 10.1% (95% CI: 7.5%-13.4%) in Abia and 35.1% (95% CI: 29.2%-41.5%) in Plateau. Ownership of two or more bednets was 2.1% (95% CI: 1.2%-3.7%) in Abia and 14.5% (95% CI: 10.2%-20.3%) in Plateau. Overall reported net use the night before the survey among all individuals, children <5 years, and pregnant women was 3.4%, 6.0% and 5.7%, respectively in Abia and 14.7%, 19.1% and 21.0%, respectively in Plateau. Among households owning nets, 34.4% of children <5 years and 31.6% of pregnant women in Abia used a net, compared to 52.6% of children and 62.7% of pregnant women in Plateau. CONCLUSIONS: These results reveal high Plasmodium prevalence and childhood anemia in both states, low baseline coverage of IRS and LLINs, and sub-optimal net use-especially among age groups with highest observed malaria burden.

Do Residents Believe that Onchocerciasis Transmission Was Eliminated? Results of A Post-Treatment Surveillance Knowledge, Attitude, and Practices Survey in Three Foci of Uganda.

In Uganda, 15 of 17 foci have interrupted transmission of onchocerciasis (river blindness) and stopped mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. This 2016 study describes the results of a knowledge, attitude, and practices survey regarding river blindness among participants (N = 1,577) 3-5 years after ivermectin MDA was halted in three foci: Imaramagambo halted in 2012, Kashoya-Kitomi in 2013, and Mt. Elgon in 2011. The study showed high levels of composite knowledge (focus-specific range: 66.8-81.2%) related to river blindness transmission, signs, symptoms, and treatment. However, 38.1% of respondents did not know that blackflies transmitted river blindness. Notably, 72.2% claimed they had not been informed why MDA was stopped, 56.3% did not believe river blindness had been eliminated, and 83.1% wanted ivermectin MDA to resume. During the 3-5 year post-treatment surveillance period, only 27.7% (438 of 1,577) reported being informed of what to do once treatments stopped, with the most knowledgeable hailing from the Mt. Elgon focus (47.9%). This study reinforces the need for programs to intensify health education and information dissemination when MDA is stopped. Programs must remind residents that although biting insects may persist, they no longer transmit river blindness. Incorporating messages about the elimination of river blindness into community health education campaigns can help improve the community's perceptions related to the disease's absence and the ending of a long-standing MDA intervention.

The Interruption of Transmission of Onchocerciasis in Abia, Anambra, Enugu, and Imo States, Nigeria: The Largest Global Onchocerciasis Stop-Treatment Decision to Date.

Onchocerciasis causes severe morbidity in sub-Saharan Africa. Abia, Anambra, Enugu, and Imo states of Nigeria were historically classified meso- or hyperendemic and eligible for ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). After ≥25 years of annual and biannual MDA, serological and entomological assessments were conducted to determine if Onchocerca volvulus transmission was interrupted. Dried blood spots collected in October 2020 from ≥3167 children 5-9 years old in each state were screened for O. volvulus-specific Ov16 antibody by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Additionally, 52,187 Simulium damnosum heads (≥8845 per state) collected over 12 months between 2021 and 2022 were tested by pooled polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for O-150 DNA. Among seven seropositive children, four were found for follow-up skin snip PCR to confirm active infection. Three were negative and the fourth was excluded as he was visiting from an endemic state. The final seroprevalence estimates of each state had 95% upper confidence limits (UCL) < 0.1%. All fly pools were negative by O-150 PCR, giving a 95% UCL infective fly prevalence < 0.05% in each state. Each state therefore met the World Health Organization epidemiological and entomological criteria for stopping MDA effective January 2023. With 18.9 million residents eligible for MDA, this marked the largest global onchocerciasis stop-treatment decision to date.

Physical durability of PermaNet 2.0 long-lasting insecticidal nets over three to 32 months of use in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia scaled up net distribution markedly starting in 2006. Information on expected net life under field conditions (physical durability and persistence of insecticidal activity) is needed to improve planning for net replacement. Standardization of physical durability assessment methods is lacking. METHODS: Permanet®2.0 long-lasting insecticidal bed nets (LLINs), available for distribution in early 2007, were collected from households at three time intervals. The number, size and location of holes were recorded for 189 nets used for three to six months from nine sites (2007) and 220 nets used for 14 to 20 months from 11 sites (2008). In 2009, a "finger/fist" sizing method classified holes in 200 nets used for 26 to 32 months from ten sites into small (<2 cm), medium (> = 2 to < =10 cm) and large (>10 cm) sizes. A proportionate hole index based on both hole number and area was derived from these size classifications. RESULTS: After three to six months, 54.5% (95% CI 47.1-61.7%) of 189 LLINs had at least one hole 0.5 cm (in the longest axis) or larger; mean holes per net was 4.4 (SD 8.4), median was 1.0 (Inter Quartile Range [IQR] 0-5) and median size was 1 cm (IQR 1-2). At 14 to 20 months, 85.5% (95% CI 80.1-89.8%) of 220 nets had at least one hole with mean 29.1 (SD 50.1) and median 12 (IQR 3-36.5) holes per net, and median size of 1 cm (IQR 1-2). At 26 to 32 months, 92.5% of 200 nets had at least one hole with a mean of 62.2 (SD 205.4) and median of 23 (IQR 6-55.5) holes per net. The mean hole index was 24.3, 169.1 and 352.8 at the three time periods respectively. Repairs were rarely observed. The majority of holes were in the lower half of the net walls. The proportion of nets in 'poor' condition (hole index >300) increased from 0% at three to six months to 30% at 26 to 32 months. CONCLUSIONS: Net damage began quickly: more than half the nets had holes by three to six months of use, with 40% of holes being larger than 2 cm. Holes continued to accumulate until 92.5% of nets had holes by 26 to 32 months of use. An almost complete lack of repairs shows the need for promoting proper use of nets and repairs, to increase LLIN longevity. Using the hole index, almost one third of the nets were classed as unusable and ineffective after two and a half years of potential use.

Two Nigerian States (Plateau and Nasarawa) Have Eliminated Transmission of Human Onchocerciasis-A Report of Post-Ivermectin Mass Drug Administration Surveillance.

Transmission of Onchocerca volvulus (causing "river blindness") was interrupted in two states of Nigeria (Plateau and Nasarawa) in 2017 in accordance with 2016 WHO guidelines. Ivermectin mass drug administration was halted in January 2018, and posttreatment surveillance activities were conducted over a 3-year period. Vector Simulium damnosum s.l. flies were collected during the 2019 (39 sites) and 2020 (42 sites) transmission seasons. Head pools were tested by polymerase chain reaction for the presence of third-stage O. volvulus larvae; 15,585 flies were all negative, demonstrating an infective rate of < 1/2,000 with 95% confidence. In 2021, the Nigerian Federal Ministry of Health declared the two-state area as having eliminated transmission. Plateau and Nasarawa states are the first of 30 endemic states in Nigeria to have met the WHO criteria for onchocerciasis elimination. Post-elimination surveillance will need to continue given the risk of reintroduction of transmission from neighboring states.

Analysis of malaria surveillance data in Ethiopia: what can be learned from the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response System?

BACKGROUND: Routine malaria surveillance data is useful for assessing incidence and trends over time, and in stratification for targeting of malaria control. The reporting completeness and potential bias of such data needs assessment. METHODS: Data on 17 malaria indicators were extracted from the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response System database for July 2004 to June 2009 (Ethiopian calendar reporting years 1997 to 2001). Reporting units were standardized over time with 2007 census populations. The data were analysed to show reporting completeness, variation in risk by reporting unit, and incidence trends for malaria indicators. RESULTS: Reporting completeness, estimated as product of unit-month and health facility reporting, was over 80% until 2009, when it fell to 56% during a period of reorganization in the Ministry of Health. Nationally the average estimated annual incidence of reported total malaria for the calendar years 2005 to 2008 was 23.4 per 1000 persons, and of confirmed malaria was 7.6 per 1,000, with no clear decline in out-patient cases over the time period. Reported malaria in-patient admissions and deaths (averaging 6.4 per 10,000 and 2.3 per 100,000 per year respectively) declined threefold between 2005 and 2009, as did admissions and deaths reported as malaria with severe anaemia. Only 8 of 86 reporting units had average annual estimated incidence of confirmed malaria above 20 per 1,000 persons, while 26 units were consistently below five reported cases per 1,000 persons per year. CONCLUSION: The Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response System functioned well over the time period mid 2004 to the end of 2008. The data suggest that the scale up of interventions has had considerable impact on malaria in-patient cases and mortality, as reported from health centres and hospitals. These trends must be regarded as relative (over space and time) rather than absolute. The data can be used to stratify areas for improved targeting of control efforts to steadily reduce incidence. They also provide a baseline of incidence estimates against which to gauge future progress towards elimination. Inclusion of climate information over this time period and extension of the dataset to more years is needed to clarify the impact of control measures compared to natural cycles on malaria.

Which nets are being used: factors associated with mosquito net use in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples' Regions of Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: There has been recent large scale-up of malaria control interventions in Ethiopia where transmission is unstable. While household ownership of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) has increased greatly, there are concerns about inadequate net use. This study aimed to investigate factors associated with net use at two time points, before and after mass distribution of nets. METHODS: Two cross sectional surveys were carried out in 2006 and 2007 in Amhara, Oromia and SNNP regions. The latter was a sub-sample of the national Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS 3R). Each survey wave used multi-stage cluster random sampling with 25 households per cluster (224 clusters with 5,730 households in Baseline 2006 and 245 clusters with 5,910 households in MIS 3R 2007). Net ownership was assessed by visual inspection while net utilization was reported as use of the net the previous night. This net level analysis was restricted to households owning at least one net of any type. Logistic regression models of association between net use and explanatory variables including net type, age, condition, cost and other household characteristics were undertaken using generalized linear latent and mixed models (GLLAMM). RESULTS: A total of 3,784 nets in 2,430 households were included in the baseline 2006 analysis while the MIS 3R 2007 analysis comprised 5,413 nets in 3,328 households. The proportion of nets used the previous night decreased from 85.1% to 56.0% between baseline 2006 and MIS 3R 2007, respectively. Factors independently associated with increased proportion of nets used were: LLIN net type (at baseline 2006); indoor residual spraying (at MIS 3R 2007); and increasing wealth index at both surveys. At both baseline 2006 and MIS 3R 2007, reduced proportion of nets used was independently associated with increasing net age, increasing damage of nets, increasing household net density, and increasing altitude (>2,000 m). CONCLUSION: This study identified modifiable factors affecting use of nets that were consistent across both surveys. While net replacement remains important, the findings suggest that: more education about use and care of nets; making nets more resistant to damage; and encouraging net mending are likely to maximize the huge investment in scale up of net ownership by ensuring they are used. Without this step, the widespread benefits of LLIN cannot be realized.

Factors associated with mosquito net use by individuals in households owning nets in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Ownership of insecticidal mosquito nets has dramatically increased in Ethiopia since 2006, but the proportion of persons with access to such nets who use them has declined. It is important to understand individual level net use factors in the context of the home to modify programmes so as to maximize net use. METHODS: Generalized linear latent and mixed models (GLLAMM) were used to investigate net use using individual level data from people living in net-owning households from two surveys in Ethiopia: baseline 2006 included 12,678 individuals from 2,468 households and a sub-sample of the Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) in 2007 included 14,663 individuals from 3,353 households. Individual factors (age, sex, pregnancy); net factors (condition, age, net density); household factors (number of rooms [2006] or sleeping spaces [2007], IRS, women's knowledge and school attendance [2007 only], wealth, altitude); and cluster level factors (rural or urban) were investigated in univariate and multi-variable models for each survey. RESULTS: In 2006, increased net use was associated with: age 25-49 years (adjusted (a) OR = 1.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-1.7) compared to children U5; female gender (aOR = 1.4; 95% CI 1.2-1.5); fewer nets with holes (Ptrend = 0.002); and increasing net density (Ptrend < 0.001). Reduced net use was associated with: age 5-24 years (aOR = 0.2; 95% CI 0.2-0.3). In 2007, increased net use was associated with: female gender (aOR = 1.3; 95% CI 1.1-1.6); fewer nets with holes (aOR [all nets in HH good] = 1.6; 95% CI 1.2-2.1); increasing net density (Ptrend < 0.001); increased women's malaria knowledge (Ptrend < 0.001); and urban clusters (aOR = 2.5; 95% CI 1.5-4.1). Reduced net use was associated with: age 5-24 years (aOR = 0.3; 95% CI 0.2-0.4); number of sleeping spaces (aOR [per additional space] = 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.7); more old nets (aOR [all nets in HH older than 12 months] = 0.5; 95% CI 0.3-0.7); and increasing household altitude (Ptrend < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In both surveys, net use was more likely by women, if nets had fewer holes and were at higher net per person density within households. School-age children and young adults were much less likely to use a net. Increasing availability of nets within households (i.e. increasing net density), and improving net condition while focusing on education and promotion of net use, especially in school-age children and young adults in rural areas, are crucial areas for intervention to ensure maximum net use and consequent reduction of malaria transmission.

Simulating a Transmission Assessment Survey: An evaluation of current methods used in determining the elimination of the neglected tropical disease, Lymphatic Filariasis.

INTRODUCTION: The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends Transmission Assessment Surveys (TAS) to determine when an evaluation unit (EU) (a designated population survey area) has achieved elimination of transmission of the vector-borne macroparasitic disease Lymphatic Filariasis (LF). These determinations are based on combining data from multiple survey units within an EU; it is unclear how underlying cluster-level variation influences the outcome of the TAS at EU level. We simulate LF infection distribution in an EU and compare three methods for assessing whether LF elimination has occurred based on currently recommended decision thresholds and sampling methods. METHODS: We simulate an EU divided into clusters of varying size and disease prevalence. We produce 1000 samples according to LF TAS examples and WHO guidelines and compare three decision-making approaches: lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) (recommended by WHO), one-sided interval estimate (CI), and nth order statistic (MAX). Summary statistics demonstrating the "pass" rate for the EU under different disease transmission conditions are generated using a versatile SAS® macro. RESULTS: As the prevalence of LF decreases, the LQAS and CI approaches produce increased likelihood of a pass outcome for an EU while some cluster units may still have a high likelihood of transmission. The MAX provides an alternative that increases the likelihood of determining a pass only once the whole area has a low likelihood of transmission. LQAS and CI approaches designed to estimate the LF prevalence in the EU miss hotspots that will continue to transmit infection while the MAX approach focuses on identifying clusters with high risk of transmission. CONCLUSIONS: The current TAS methodology has a flaw that may result in false predictions of LF transmission interruption throughout an EU. Modifying the TAS methodology to address results from extreme clusters rather than being based on mean prevalence over an EU will result in greater success for global elimination of LF.

The role of non-governmental development organizations in the implementation of lymphatic filariasis programmes.

The Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) Non-governmental Development Organization (NGDO) Network was established to engage in supporting both international and national LF elimination agendas covering areas such as assisting ministries of health as an on-the-ground link between communities and programmes, which additionally gives the Network members an important voice from the field at international meetings; playing key roles in programme evolution (especially helping to both scale up and scale down mass drug administration [MDA] as elimination thresholds are met); having a role in operational research and developing new programme delivery models that can be taken to scale (such as linkages with other disease programmes and approaches to morbidity management and disability prevention); developing advocacy and policy approaches with other partners; convening other important stakeholders (academic, technical, programmatic and funding); mobilizing financial and technical resources to support programmes; supporting national human resource capacity building to catalyse national ownership of LF programmes; providing leadership in LF governance structures and working in areas of conflict to ensure that everybody in LF-endemic areas enjoys treatment services. Three case studies will illustrate the roles identified for NGDOs in LF programmes covering development of operational research, policy and advocacy linkage between LF and malaria programmes; launching LF morbidity management projects and NGDO's ability to work and deliver LF services in areas of conflict. In addition, the case studies will show the role of NGDOs in mobilising financial and technical resources that support national human resources, leading to national ownership of programmes. Conclusions will be drawn on the role of NGDOs in the Global Alliance for LF elimination and the need for continued partnerships to reach programme goals.

Assessing Hypoendemic Onchocerciasis in Loa loa Endemic Areas of Southeast Nigeria.

Nigeria changed its goal for onchocerciasis from control to transmission elimination. Under the control program, ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) focused only on hyper/meso-endemic local government areas (LGAs) identified by Rapid Epidemiological Mapping of Onchocerciasis as having ≥ 20% nodule rates. Because transmission is likely in some LGAs where nodule rates are < 20%, the new elimination paradigm requires MDA expansion. Determining which hypoendemic areas require MDA, termed onchocerciasis elimination mapping, is a major challenge. In 2016, we studied 19 ivermectin-naive hypoendemic LGAs in southern Nigeria that bordered LGAs under MDA. Fifty adults and 50 children (aged 5-10 years) were tested in 110 villages for onchocerciasis IgG4 antibody using an Ov16 rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A 10% subset of subjects provided a blood spot for confirmatory Ov16 ELISA. The mean prevalence of RDT positives was 0.5% in the 5,276 children tested (village range, 0.0-4.0%) versus 3.3% in 5,302 adults (village range, 0.0-58.0%). There was 99.3% agreement between the Ov16 RDT and ELISA. Six different MDA launch thresholds were applied to the RDT results based on different recommendations by the Nigeria Onchocerciasis Elimination Committee and the Onchocerciasis Technical Advisory Subgroup of the WHO. Mass drug administration targets for the same area varied tenfold by threshold chosen, from one LGA (population to be treated 221,935) to 13 LGAs (population 2,426,987). Because the Ov16 threshold selected will have considerable cost and resource implications, the decision to initiate MDA should incorporate entomological data demonstrating onchocerciasis transmission.

Data-driven modelling and spatial complexity supports heterogeneity-based integrative management for eliminating Simulium neavei-transmitted river blindness.

Concern is emerging regarding the challenges posed by spatial complexity for modelling and managing the area-wide elimination of parasitic infections. While this has led to calls for applying heterogeneity-based approaches for addressing this complexity, questions related to spatial scale, the discovery of locally-relevant models, and its interaction with options for interrupting parasite transmission remain to be resolved. We used a data-driven modelling framework applied to infection data gathered from different monitoring sites to investigate these questions in the context of understanding the transmission dynamics and efforts to eliminate Simulium neavei- transmitted onchocerciasis, a macroparasitic disease that causes river blindness in Western Uganda and other regions of Africa. We demonstrate that our Bayesian-based data-model assimilation technique is able to discover onchocerciasis models that reflect local transmission conditions reliably. Key management variables such as infection breakpoints and required durations of drug interventions for achieving elimination varied spatially due to site-specific parameter constraining; however, this spatial effect was found to operate at the larger focus level, although intriguingly including vector control overcame this variability. These results show that data-driven modelling based on spatial datasets and model-data fusing methodologies will be critical to identifying both the scale-dependent models and heterogeneity-based options required for supporting the successful elimination of S. neavei-borne onchocerciasis.

Post-Treatment Surveillance for Lymphatic Filariasis in Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria: Results of Transmission Assessment Surveys.

Following the halt of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF), the WHO recommends at least 4 years of post-treatment surveillance (PTS) to confirm that transmission recrudescence or importation does not occur. The primary means of evaluation during PTS is repeated transmission assessment surveys (TASs) conducted at 2- to 3-year intervals after TAS-1 stop-MDA surveys. This study reports the results of TAS-2 and TAS-3 surveys in Plateau and Nasarawa states (pop. 6.9 million) of Nigeria divided into a minimum of seven evaluation units (EUs) per TAS. A total of 26,536 first- and second-year primary school children (approximately 6-7 years old) were tested for circulating filarial antigen (CFA) between 2014 and 2017. Of 12,313 children tested in TAS-2 surveys, only five (0.04%) were CFA positive, with no more than two positive samples from any one EU, which was below the critical value of 20 per EU. Of 14,240 children tested in TAS-3 surveys, none (0%) were CFA positive. These results indicate that LF transmission remains below sustainable transmission levels and suggest that elimination of transmission has been achieved in Plateau and Nasarawa, Nigeria.

The Interruption of Transmission of Human Onchocerciasis by an Annual Mass Drug Administration Program in Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria.

Plateau and Nasarawa states in central Nigeria were endemic for onchocerciasis. The rural populations of these two states received annual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA) for a period of 8-26 years (1992-2017). Ivermectin combined with albendazole was given for 8-13 of these years for lymphatic filariasis (LF); the LF MDA program successfully concluded in 2012, but ivermectin MDA continued in areas known to have a baseline meso-/hyperendemic onchocerciasis. In 2017, serological and entomological assessments were undertaken to determine if MDA for onchocerciasis could be stopped in accordance with the current WHO guidelines. Surveys were conducted in 39 sites that included testing 5- to < 10-year-old resident children by using ELISA for OV16 IgG4 antibodies, and Onchocerca volvulus O150 pooled polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of Simulium damnosum s.l. vector heads. Only two of 6,262 children were OV16 positive, and none of 19,056 vector heads were positive for parasite DNA. Therefore, both states were able to meet WHO stop-MDA thresholds of an infection rate in children of < 0.1% and a rate of infective blackflies of <1/2,000, with 95% statistical confidence. Transmission of onchocerciasis was declared interrupted in Plateau and Nasarawa states by the Federal Ministry of Health, and 2.2 million ivermectin treatments/year were stopped in 2018. Post-treatment Surveillance was launched focusing on entomological monitoring on borders with neighboring onchocerciasis-endemic states. An apparent positive impact of the LF MDA program on eliminating hypo-endemic onchocerciasis was observed. This is the first stop-MDA decision for onchocerciasis in Nigeria and the largest single stop-MDA decision for onchocerciasis yet reported. This achievement, along with the process used in adapting and implementing the 2016 WHO stop-MDA guidelines, will be important as a potential model for decision makers and national onchocerciasis elimination committees in other African countries that are charged with advancing their programs.

Comparison of Reported and Survey-Based Coverage in Onchocerciasis Programs over a Period of 8 Years in Cameroon and Uganda.

Mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin must reach a high treatment coverage (90% of the eligible population) if onchocerciasis is to be eliminated. Questions have been raised as to whether reported treatment figures reaching such high coverage are reliable. Sample surveys are proposed as the method of choice for "validating" reported coverage figures. The purpose of this study was to compare the district-level MDA coverage reported by programs with contemporaneous surveys of randomly selected respondents living in those same districts. Over an 8-year period, 19,219 households were selected using multistage random sampling; 38,433 adult male and female heads of those households were asked about their recent ivermectin MDA treatment experience. District coverage reports were considered "accurate" if they fell within the 95% CIs determined by the corresponding district's survey. Ninety-eight treatment rounds were evaluated over an 8-year period. Overall, the reported coverage of 96.5% (range: 68-100%) was significantly higher than the 92.5% surveyed coverage (range: 62.1-99.6%, 95% CI: 91.9-93.2%). However, only 20% of districts reported significantly higher coverage than surveys, 68% of district program reports were judged as accurate, and 12% of districts reported significantly lower coverage figures than their corresponding surveys. Eighty-eight percent of districts reported coverage ≥ 90% threshold for success, compared with 97% of surveys that included 90% in their 95% CIs. We conclude that when analyzed statistically at the district level, most surveys verified the reported coverage.

The positive influence the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program for the Americas has had on Africa programs.

A recent article "Is onchocerciasis elimination in Africa feasible by 2025: a perspective based on lessons learnt from the African control programmes" in Infectious Diseases of Poverty claimed that undue influence on African programs by concepts developed by the Onchocerciasis Elimination Program of the Americas (OEPA) is detrimental to stopping mass drug administration (MDA) in Africa. This claim is made despite a record year for MDA stoppage in four African countries of > 3.5 million treatments in 2018, far exceeding any past OEPA or African Program for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) stop MDA success.