Changing spring snow cover dynamics and early season forage availability affect the behavior of a large carnivore.

Changing climates are altering wildlife habitats and wildlife behavior in complex ways. Here, we examine how changing spring snow cover dynamics and early season forage availability are altering grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) behavior postden emergence. Telemetry data were used to identify spring activity dates for 48 individuals in the Yellowhead region of Alberta, Canada. Spring activity date was related to snow cover dynamics using a daily percent snow cover dataset. Snow melt end date, melt rate, and melt consistency explained 45% of the variation in spring activity date. We applied this activity date model across the entire Yellowhead region from 2000 to 2016 using simulated grizzly bear home ranges. Predicted spring activity date was then compared with a daily spring forage availability date dataset, resulting in "wait time" estimates for four key early season forage species. Temporal changes in both spring activity date and early season forage "wait times" were assessed using non-parametric regression. Grizzly bear activity date was found to have either remained constant (95%) or become earlier (5%) across the study area; virtually no areas with significantly later spring activity dates were detected. Similarly, the majority of "wait times" did not change (85%); however, the majority of significant changes in "wait times" for the four early season forage species indicated that "wait times" were lessening where changes were detected. Our results show that spring activity date is largely dictated by snow melt characteristics and that changing snow melt conditions may result in earlier spring activity. However, early season food stress conditions are likely to remain unchanged or improve as vegetation phenology also becomes earlier. Our findings extend the recent work examining animal movement in response to changing phenology from migratory birds and ungulates to an apex predator, further demonstrating the potential effects of changing climates on wildlife species.

Plasticity in elk migration timing is a response to changing environmental conditions.

Migration is an effective behavioral strategy for prolonging access to seasonal resources and may be a resilient strategy for ungulates experiencing changing climatic conditions. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), elk are the primary ungulate, with approximately 20,000 individuals migrating to exploit seasonal gradients in forage while also avoiding energetically costly snow conditions. How climate-induced changes in plant phenology and snow accumulation are influencing elk migration timing is unknown. We present the most complete record of elk migration across the GYE, spanning 9 herds and 414 individuals from 2001 to 2017, to evaluate the drivers of migration timing and test for temporal shifts. The timing of elk departure from winter range involved a trade-off between current and anticipated forage conditions, while snow melt governed summer range arrival date. Timing of elk departure from summer range and arrival on winter range were both influenced by snow accumulation and exposure to hunting. At the GYE scale, spring and fall migration timing changed through time, most notably with winter range arrival dates becoming almost 50 days later since 2001. Predicted herd-level changes in migration timing largely agreed with observed GYE-wide changes-except for predicted winter range arrival dates which did not reflect the magnitude of change detected in the elk telemetry data. Snow melt, snow accumulation, and spring green-up dates all changed through time, with different herds experiencing different rates and directions of change. We conclude that elk migration is plastic, is a direct response to environmental cues, and that these environmental cues are not changing in a consistent manner across the GYE. The impacts of changing elk migration timing on predator-prey dynamics, carnivore-livestock conflict, disease ecology, and harvest management across the GYE are likely to be significant and complex.

Barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) behaviour after recent fire events; integrating caribou telemetry data with Landsat fire detection techniques.

Fire regimes are changing throughout the North American boreal forest in complex ways. Fire is also a major factor governing access to high-quality forage such as terricholous lichens for barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus). Additionally, fire alters forest structure which can affect barren-ground caribou's ability to navigate in a landscape. Here, we characterize how the size and severity of fires are changing across five barren-ground caribou herd ranges in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. Additionally, we demonstrate how time since fire, fire severity, and season result in complex changes in caribou behavioural metrics estimated using telemetry data. Fire disturbances were identified using novel gap-free Landsat surface reflectance composites from 1985 to 2011 across all herd ranges. Burn severity was estimated using the differenced normalized burn ratio. Annual area burned and burn severity were assessed through time for each herd and related to two behavioural metrics: velocity and relative turning angle. Neither annual area burned nor burn severity displayed any temporal trend within the study period. However, certain herds, such as the Ahiak/Beverly, have more exposure to fire than other herds (i.e. Cape Bathurst had a maximum forested area burned of less than 4 km2 ). Time since fire and burn severity both significantly affected velocity and relative turning angles. During fall, winter, and spring, fire virtually eliminated foraging-focused behaviour for all 26 years of analysis while more severe fires resulted in a marked increase in movement-focused behaviour compared to unburnt patches. Between seasons, caribou used burned areas as early as 1-year postfire, demonstrating complex, nonlinear reactions to time since fire, fire severity, and season. In all cases, increases in movement-focused behaviour were detected postfire. We conclude that changes in caribou behaviour immediately postfire are primarily driven by changes in forest structure rather than changes in terricholous lichen availability.

Quantifying forest disturbance regimes within caribou (Rangifer tarandus) range in British Columbia.

Habitat disturbance is a major driver of the decline of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Canada. Different disturbance agents and regimes negatively impact caribou populations to different degrees. It is therefore critical that land managers and scientists studying caribou have a detailed understanding of the disturbance regimes affecting caribou habitat. In this work we use recent advances in satellite-based disturbance detection to quantify polygonal forest disturbance regimes affecting caribou ecotypes and herds in British Columbia (BC) from 1985 to 2019. Additionally, we utilize this data to investigate harvesting rates since the implementation of the Species at Risk Act (SARA) and publication of recovery strategies for caribou in BC. Southern Mountain caribou herds are the most threatened yet experienced the highest rates of disturbance, with 22.75% of forested habitat within their ranges disturbed during the study period. Over the study period, we found that in total, 16.4% of forested area was disturbed across all caribou herd ranges. Our findings indicate that caribou in BC face high, and in many cases increasing, levels of habitat disturbance. Our results provide a detailed understanding of the polygonal disturbance regimes affecting caribou in BC at the herd scale, and highlight the need for effective implementation of policies aimed at preserving caribou habitat.

A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database.

Episodes of mass coral bleaching have been reported in recent decades and have raised concerns about the future of coral reefs on a warming planet. Despite the efforts to enhance and coordinate coral reef monitoring within and across countries, our knowledge of the geographic extent of mass coral bleaching over the past few decades is incomplete. Existing databases, like ReefBase, are limited by the voluntary nature of contributions, geographical biases in data collection, and the variations in the spatial scale of bleaching reports. In this study, we have developed the first-ever gridded, global-scale historical coral bleaching database. First, we conducted a targeted search for bleaching reports not included in ReefBase by personally contacting scientists and divers conducting monitoring in under-reported locations and by extracting data from the literature. This search increased the number of observed bleaching reports by 79%, from 4146 to 7429. Second, we employed spatial interpolation techniques to develop annual 0.04° × 0.04° latitude-longitude global maps of the probability that bleaching occurred for 1985 through 2010. Initial results indicate that the area of coral reefs with a more likely than not (>50%) or likely (>66%) probability of bleaching was eight times higher in the second half of the assessed time period, after the 1997/1998 El Niño. The results also indicate that annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks, a measure of thermal stress, for coral reefs with a high probability of bleaching increased over time. The database will help the scientific community more accurately assess the change in the frequency of mass coral bleaching events, validate methods of predicting mass coral bleaching, and test whether coral reefs are adjusting to rising ocean temperatures.

Estimating changes in lichen mat volume through time and related effects on barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) movement.

Lichens form a critical portion of barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) diets, especially during winter months. Here, we assess lichen mat volume across five herd ranges in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada, using newly developed composite Landsat imagery. The lichen volume estimator (LVE) was adapted for use across 700 000 km2 of barren ground caribou habitat annually from 1984-2012. We subsequently assessed how LVE changed temporally throughout the time series for each pixel using Theil-Sen's slopes, and spatially by assessing whether slope values were centered in local clusters of similar values. Additionally, we assessed how LVE estimates resulted in changes in barren ground caribou movement rates using an extensive telemetry data set from 2006-2011. The Ahiak/Beverly herd had the largest overall increase in LVE (median = 0.033), while the more western herds had the least (median slopes below zero in all cases). LVE slope pixels were arranged in significant clusters across the study area, with the Cape Bathurst, Bathurst, and Bluenose East herds having the most significant clusters of negative slopes (more than 20% of vegetated land in each case). The Ahiak/Beverly and Bluenose West had the most significant positive clusters (16.3% and 18.5% of vegetated land respectively). Barren ground caribou displayed complex reactions to changing lichen conditions depending on season; the majority of detected associations with movement data agreed with current understanding of barren ground caribou foraging behavior (the exception was an increase in movement velocity at high lichen volume estimates in Fall). The temporal assessment of LVE identified areas where shifts in ecological conditions may have resulted in changing lichen mat conditions, while assessing the slope estimates for clustering identified zones beyond the pixel scale where forage conditions may be changing. Lichen volume estimates associated with barren ground caribou movement metrics in an expected manner and, as such, show value for future habitat assessments.