Evaluating HIV Rapid/Point of Care Testing among Risk Factor Groups in Ontario, 2011 to 2018.

OBJECTIVES: In 2014, Ontario's Point-of-Care (POC) test providers were advised to focus efforts on provincially defined priority populations who experience a greater risk of HIV. Our objective was to describe the POC program before, during and after this change, including tester characteristics, follow-up testing results, positive predictive value (PPV) over time, and trends and characteristics of those with reactive test results without a confirmatory serological specimen. METHODS: Test-level data of POC screening and confirmatory results were extracted from the Public Health Ontario HIV Datamart. Final test results were defined based on results of the confirmatory blood sample, or the POC test for "non-reactive" tests. Testing volumes, percent of total tests, percent positivity and PPV were calculated overall, annually, and by exposure group. RESULTS: Overall testing volumes decreased by 39.8% between 2014 and 2018. The majority of confirmed positive tests were in the men who have sex with men (MSM) exposure category, followed by HIV-endemic and heterosexual - no identified risk (heterosexual-NIR). Overall percent positivity decreased from 0.59% in 2011 to 0.42% in 2015 (change of 0.17%, 95% CI 0.03% to 0.31%), increasing to 0.69% in 2018 (change of 0.27%, 95% CI 0.20% to 0.34%). Increases in percent positivity corresponded with a decrease in the overall proportion of tests conducted in low-risk populations. When compared to the heterosexual-NIR category, PPV was significantly higher for men who have sex with men - people who use injection drugs (MSM-PWID) (52.7% compared to 100%, P < .001), MSM (52.7% compared to 95.4%, P < .001), HIV-endemic (52.7% compared to 91.5%, P < .001), heterosexual - partner with identified risk (heterosexual-PIR) (52.7% compared to 77.3%, P = .042), and people who use injection drugs (PWID) (52.7% compared to 81.3%, P = 0.007). A total of 13.5% of reactive POC results did not have a serological sample submitted. CONCLUSIONS: Targeted testing towards populations at higher risk of HIV improved the overall test performance characteristics of Ontario's POC testing program. While not unexpected, the large discrepancies between PPV in higher-risk, compared to lower-risk populations, suggests the need for greater awareness and messaging of the likelihood of false positive test results in different populations.

Investigation of a severe SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in a long-term care home early in the pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The implementation of outbreak management measures has decreased the frequency and severity of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in Ontario long-term care homes. We describe the epidemiological and laboratory data from one of the first such outbreaks in Ontario to assess factors associated with its severity, and the impact of progressive interventions for infection control over the course of the outbreak. METHODS: We obtained line list and outbreak data from the public health unit to describe resident and staff cases, severity and distribution of cases over time and within the outbreak facility. Where available, we obtained data on laboratory specimens from the Public Health Ontario Laboratory and performed whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of viral specimens from the outbreak. RESULTS: Among 65 residents of the long-term care home, 61 (94%) contracted SARS-CoV-2, with a case fatality rate of 45% (28/61). Among 67 initial staff, 34 (51%) contracted the virus and none died. When the outbreak was declared, 12 staff, 2 visitors and 9 residents had symptoms. Resident cases were located in 3 of 4 areas of the home. Phylogenetic analysis showed tight clustering of cases, with only 1 additional strain of genetically distinct SARS-CoV-2 identified from a staff case in the third week of the outbreak. No cases were identified among 26 new staff brought into the home after full outbreak measures were implemented. INTERPRETATION: Rapid and undetected viral spread in a long-term care home led to high rates of infection among residents and staff. Progressive implementation of outbreak measures after the peak of cases prevented subsequent staff cases and are now part of long-term care outbreak policy in Ontario.

Effectiveness of pertussis vaccination and duration of immunity.

BACKGROUND: A resurgence of pertussis cases among both vaccinated and unvaccinated people raises questions about vaccine effectiveness over time. Our objective was to study the effectiveness of the pertussis vaccine and characterize the effect of waning immunity and whole-cell vaccine priming. METHODS: We used the test-negative design, a nested case-control study with test-negative individuals as controls. We constructed multivariable logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs). Vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1 - OR) × 100. We assessed waning immunity by calculating the odds of developing pertussis per year since last vaccination and evaluated the relative effectiveness of priming with acellular versus whole-cell vaccine. RESULTS: Between Dec. 7, 2009, and Mar. 31, 2013, data on 5867 individuals (486 test-positive cases and 5381 test-negative controls) were available for analysis. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness was 80% (95% confidence interval [CI] 71% to 86%) at 15-364 days, 84% (95% CI 77% to 89%) at 1-3 years, 62% (95% CI 42% to 75%) at 4-7 years and 41% (95% CI 0% to 66%) at 8 or more years since last vaccination. We observed waning immunity with the acellular vaccine, with an adjusted OR for pertussis infection of 1.27 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.34) per year since last vaccination. Acellular, versus whole-cell, vaccine priming was associated with an increased odds of pertussis (adjusted OR 2.15, 95% CI 1.30 to 3.57). INTERPRETATION: We observed high early effectiveness of the pertussis vaccine that rapidly declined as time since last vaccination surpassed 4 years, particularly with acellular vaccine priming. Considering whole-cell vaccine priming and/or boosters in pregnancy to optimize pertussis control may be prudent.

Enquête sur une éclosion importante de SRAS-CoV-2 dans un établissement de soins de longue durée au début de la pandémie.

CONTEXTE: Le déploiement de mesures de gestion des éclosions de SRAS-CoV-2 dans les établissements de soins de longue durée en Ontario a permis d'en réduire la fréquence et la gravité. Nous décrivons ici les données épidémiologiques et de laboratoire d'une de ces premières éclosions en Ontario afin de déterminer les facteurs associés à son importance et les impacts des interventions progressives de lutte contre les infections appliquées pendant la durée de l'éclosion. MÉTHODES: Nous avons obtenu du bureau de santé la liste des cas et les données de l'éclosion afin de décrire les cas chez les résidents et le personnel, leur gravité et leur distribution dans le temps et à l'intérieur de l'établissement touché. Quand elles étaient disponibles, nous avons obtenu des données concernant les échantillons soumis au laboratoire de Santé publique Ontario et effectué un séquençage complet et une analyse phylogénétique des échantillons viraux de l'éclosion. RÉSULTATS: Sur les 65 résidents de l'établissement de soins de longue durée, 61 (94 %) ont contracté le SRAS-CoV-2, le taux de létalité étant de 45 % (28/61). Parmi les 67 employés initiaux, 34 (51 %) ont contracté le virus, et aucun n'est décédé. Lorsque l'éclosion a été déclarée, 12 employés, 2 visiteurs et 9 résidents présentaient des symptômes. Parmi les résidents, les cas se trouvaient dans 3 des 4 secteurs de l'établissement. L'analyse phylogénétique a montré une forte similitude des séquences; une seule autre souche de SRAS-CoV-2 génétiquement distincte a été identifiée chez un employé à la troisième semaine de l'éclosion. Après le déploiement de toutes les mesures de gestion de l'éclosion, aucun cas n'a été identifié parmi les 26 nouveaux employés appelés en renfort. INTERPRÉTATION: La propagation rapide et non détectée du virus dans un établissement de soins de longue durée a donné lieu à des taux élevés d'infection chez les résidents et le personnel. L'application progressive de mesures de gestion après le pic de l'éclosion a permis d'éviter la contamination du personnel appelé en renfort et fait désormais partie des politiques à long terme de prévention des éclosions en Ontario.

Innovations in public health surveillance: An overview of novel use of data and analytic methods.

Innovative data sources and methods for public health surveillance (PHS) have evolved rapidly over the past 10 years, suggesting the need for a closer look at the scientific maturity, feasibility, and utility of use in real-world situations. This article provides an overview of recent innovations in PHS, including data from social media, internet search engines, the Internet of Things (IoT), wastewater surveillance, participatory surveillance, artificial intelligence (AI), and nowcasting. Examples identified suggest that novel data sources and analytic methods have the potential to strengthen PHS by improving disease estimates, promoting early warning for disease outbreaks, and generating additional and/or more timely information for public health action. For example, wastewater surveillance has re-emerged as a practical tool for early detection of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and other pathogens, and AI is increasingly used to process large amounts of digital data. Challenges to implementing novel methods include lack of scientific maturity, limited examples of implementation in real-world public health settings, privacy and security risks, and health equity implications. Improving data governance, developing clear policies for the use of AI technologies, and public health workforce development are important next steps towards advancing the use of innovation in PHS.

Increasing concentration of COVID-19 by socioeconomic determinants and geography in Toronto, Canada: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Inequities in the burden of COVID-19 were observed early in Canada and around the world, suggesting economically marginalized communities faced disproportionate risks. However, there has been limited systematic assessment of how heterogeneity in risks has evolved in large urban centers over time. PURPOSE: To address this gap, we quantified the magnitude of risk heterogeneity in Toronto, Ontario from January to November 2020 using a retrospective, population-based observational study using surveillance data. METHODS: We generated epidemic curves by social determinants of health (SDOH) and crude Lorenz curves by neighbourhoods to visualize inequities in the distribution of COVID-19 and estimated Gini coefficients. We examined the correlation between SDOH using Pearson-correlation coefficients. RESULTS: Gini coefficient of cumulative cases by population size was 0.41 (95% confidence interval [CI]:0.36-0.47) and estimated for: household income (0.20, 95%CI: 0.14-0.28); visible minority (0.21, 95%CI:0.16-0.28); recent immigration (0.12, 95%CI:0.09-0.16); suitable housing (0.21, 95%CI:0.14-0.30); multigenerational households (0.19, 95%CI:0.15-0.23); and essential workers (0.28, 95%CI:0.23-0.34). CONCLUSIONS: There was rapid epidemiologic transition from higher- to lower-income neighborhoods with Lorenz curve transitioning from below to above the line of equality across SDOH. Moving forward necessitates integrating programs and policies addressing socioeconomic inequities and structural racism into COVID-19 prevention and vaccination programs.

Impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pre-test probability on positive predictive value of high cycle threshold severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test results.

OBJECTIVES: Performance characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid detection assays are understudied within contexts of low pre-test probability, including screening asymptomatic persons without epidemiological links to confirmed cases, or asymptomatic surveillance testing. SARS-CoV-2 detection without symptoms may represent presymptomatic or asymptomatic infection, resolved infection with persistent RNA shedding, or a false-positive test. This study assessed the positive predictive value of SARS-CoV-2 real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assays by retesting positive specimens from 5 pre-test probability groups ranging from high to low with an alternate assay. METHODS: In total, 122 rRT-PCR positive specimens collected from unique patients between March and July 2020 were retested using a laboratory-developed nested RT-PCR assay targeting the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene followed by Sanger sequencing. RESULTS: Significantly fewer (15.6%) positive results in the lowest pre-test probability group (facilities with institution-wide screening having ≤3 positive asymptomatic cases) were reproduced with the nested RdRp gene RT-PCR assay than in each of the 4 groups with higher pre-test probability (individual group range, 50.0%-85.0%). CONCLUSIONS: Large-scale SARS-CoV-2 screening testing initiatives among low pre-test probability populations should be evaluated thoroughly prior to implementation given the risk of false-positive results and consequent potential for harm at the individual and population level.

Detection of the novel SARS-CoV-2 European lineage B.1.177 in Ontario, Canada.

Background: Travel-related dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 continues to contribute to the global pandemic. A novel SARS-CoV-2 lineage (B.1.177) reportedly arose in Spain in the summer of 2020, with subsequent spread across Europe linked to travel by infected individuals. Surveillance and monitoring through the use of whole genome sequencing (WGS) offers insights into the global and local movement of pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 and can detect introductions of novel variants. Methods: We analysed the genomes of SARS-CoV-2 sequenced for surveillance purposes from specimens received by Public Health Ontario (Sept 6 - Oct 10, 2020), collected from individuals in eastern Ontario, which comprised the study sample. Taxonomic lineages were identified using pangolin (v2.08) and phylogenetic analysis incorporated publicly available genomes covering the same time period as the study sample. Epidemiological data collected from laboratory requisitions and standard reportable disease case investigation was integrated into the analysis. Results: Genomic surveillance identified a COVID-19 case with SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.177 from an individual in eastern Ontario in late September, 2020. The individual had recently returned from Europe. Genomic analysis with publicly available data indicate the most closely related genomes to this specimen were from Southern Europe. Genomic surveillance did not identify further cases with this lineage. Conclusions: Genomic surveillance allowed for early detection of a novel SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Ontario which was deemed to be travel related. This type of genomic-based surveillance is a key tool to measure the effectiveness of public health measures such as mandatory self-isolation for returned travellers, aimed at preventing onward transmission of newly introduced lineages of SARS-CoV-2.

Limitations of administrative data to identify measles cases in Ontario, Canada: a cautionary tale.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the utility of laboratory data and determine the validity of healthcare administrative data for describing the frequency of measles in Ontario. METHODS: We linked Ontario healthcare utilization administrative data to Public Health Ontario (PHO) laboratory data from 01 January 2006 to 30 November 2012. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the administrative data was 54% and the positive predictive value was 1% when compared with 50 cases identified in laboratory data as a gold standard. CONCLUSIONS: As measles is no longer endemic in Ontario, the high number of measles-coded healthcare visits found in Ontario health administration data exceeds the true number of cases. Great caution should be taken in using administrative data to calculate the incidence of measles in areas where it has been eliminated.

Correlation of Real Time PCR Cycle Threshold Cut-Off with Bordetella pertussis Clinical Severity.

Bordetella pertussis testing performed using real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is interpreted based on a cycle threshold (Ct) value. At Public Health Ontario Laboratories (PHOL), a Ct value <36 is reported as positive, and Ct values ≥36 and <40 are reported as indeterminate. PHOL reported indeterminate results to physicians and public health units until May 2012, after which these results were only reported to physicians. We investigated the association between Ct value and disease symptom and severity to examine the significance of indeterminate results clinically, epidemiologically and for public health reporting. B. pertussis positive and indeterminate RT-PCR results were linked to pertussis cases reported in the provincial Integrated Public Health Information System (iPHIS), using deterministic linkage. Patients with positive RT-PCR results had a lower median age of 10.8 years compared to 12.0 years for patients with indeterminate results (p = 0.24). Hospitalized patients had significantly lower Ct values than non-hospitalized patients (median Ct values of 20.7 vs. 31.6, p<0.001). The proportion of patients reporting the most indicative symptoms of pertussis did not differ between patients with positive vs. indeterminate RT-PCR results. Taking the most indicative symptoms of pertussis as the gold-standard, the positive predictive value of the RT-PCR test was 68.1%. RT-PCR test results should be interpreted in the context of the clinical symptoms, age, vaccination status, prevalence, and other factors. Further information on interpretation of indeterminate RT-PCR results may be needed, and the utility of reporting to public health practitioners should be re-evaluated.

Exploring gender dimensions of treatment programmes for neglected tropical diseases in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Gender remains a recognized but relatively unexamined aspect of the potential challenges for treatment programmes for Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs). We sought to explore the role of gender in access to treatment in the Uganda National Neglected Tropical Disease Control Programme. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Quantitative and qualitative data was collected in eight villages in Buyende and Kamuli districts, Eastern Uganda. Quantitative data on the number of persons treated by age and gender was identified from treatment registers in each village. Qualitative data was collected through semi-structured interviews with sub-county supervisors, participant observation and from focus group discussions with community leaders, community medicine distributors (CMDs), men, women who were pregnant or breastfeeding at the time of mass-treatment, and adolescent males and females. Findings include the following: (i) treatment registers are often incomplete making it difficult to obtain accurate estimates of the number of persons treated; (ii) males face more barriers to accessing treatment than women due to occupational roles which keep them away from households or villages for long periods, and males may be more distrustful of treatment; (iii) CMDs may be unaware of which medicines are safe for pregnant and breastfeeding women, resulting in women missing beneficial treatments. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Findings highlight the need to improve community-level training in drug distribution which should include gender-specific issues and guidelines for treating pregnant and breastfeeding women. Accurate age and sex disaggregated measures of the number of community members who swallow the medicines are also needed to ensure proper monitoring and evaluation of treatment programmes.