Analysis of cerebrovascular mortality trends in Spain from 1980 to 2011. / Análisis de las tendencias en la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en España 1980-2011.

INTRODUCTION: In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have declined significantly in many countries. This study analyses changes in CVD mortality rates in Spain (1980-2011) to determine if previously observed trends remain. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data on CVD mortality rates and the population data needed for the analysis were provided by Spain's National Statistics Institute. We calculated age-specific mortality rate, age-standardised overall mortality, and age-truncated mortality (35-64 years) using the direct method and standard European population structure. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the percentage of annual change in rates and identify significant changes in trends. RESULTS: CVD mortality rate decreased considerably and continuously over the last 32 years in all age groups and in both sexes in Spain. For both sexes, joinpoint analysis identifies a final period with more marked decline: 2005-2011 in women (-6.3%) and 2007-2011 in men (-7.2%). CONCLUSIONS: CVD mortality rates displayed a marked and continuous decline in Spain between 1980 and 2011. Due to the ageing of the population, doctors expect an increase in CVD prevalence and therefore its magnitude in terms of disability and healthcare costs, which poses a challenge to our health system.

Has stroke mortality stopped declining in Spain?

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the changes in stroke mortality trends in Spain by autonomous community and by sex during the period 1980-2016, using joinpoint regression models. METHODS: Mortality data were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude and standardised rates were calculated for each Spanish autonomous community, and for each sex. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the best-fitting points showing a statistically significant change in the trend. RESULTS: Joinpoint analysis enabled us to differentiate between communities in which mortality rates showed a continuous decline throughout the study period in both sexes (Asturias, Cantabria, Castile and Leon, Ceuta, and Melilla) or in men only (Extremadura). In men, in all those communities in which changes in the trend were observed (all but Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Murcia, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from -3.4% in Catalonia and Extremadura, to -6.0% in Madrid) and a final period where the trends diverged: mortality rates continued to fall in Andalusia, Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Madrid, but began to stabilise in Castile-La Mancha and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. In women, in those communities where changes were observed (all but Aragon, Murcia, and the Basque Country, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from -3.1% in Catalonia to -6.4% in Navarre) and a final period where divergent trends were observed: rates continued to decline in Andalusia, Aragon, Catalonia, Galicia, Madrid, and the Basque Country, but began to stabilise in Extremadura and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. CONCLUSIONS: Current data show that stroke mortality rates have decreased (in women in Andalusia), stabilised (in both sexes in Murcia, in men in Castile-La Mancha, and in women in Extremadura), and have even reversed (in both sexes in the Canary Islands). Further study is needed to identify the causes of these trends.

Study of colorectal mortality in the Andalusian population.

OBJECTIVES: to provide up-to-date information and to analyze recent changes in colorectal cancer mortality trends in Andalusia during the period of 1980-2008 using joinpoint regression models. PATIENTS AND METHODS: age- and sex-specific colorectal cancer deaths were taken from the official vital statistics published by the Instituto de Estadística de Andalucía for the years 1980 to 2008. We computed age-specific rates for each 5-year age group and calendar year and age-standardized mortality rates per 100,000 men and women. A joinpoint regression analysis was used for trend analysis of standardized rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years when a significant change in the linear slope of the temporal trend occurred. The best fitting points (the "join-points") are chosen where the rate significantly changes. RESULTS: mortality from colorectal cancer in Andalusia during the period studied has increased, from 277 deaths in 1980 to 1,227 in 2008 in men, and from 333 to 805 deaths in women. Adjusted overall colorectal cancer mortality rates increased from 7.7 to 17.0 deaths per 100,000 person-years in men and from 6.6 to 9.0 per 100,000 person-years in women Changes in mortality did not evolve similarly for men and women. Age-specific CRC mortality rates are lower in women than in men, which imply that women reach comparable levels of colorectal cancer mortality at higher ages than men. CONCLUSIONS: sex differences for colorectal cancer mortality have been widening in the last decade in Andalusia. In spite of the decreasing trends in age-adjusted mortality rates in women, incidence rates and the absolute numbers of deaths are still increasing, largely because of the aging of the population. Consequently, colorectal cancer still has a large impact on health care services, and this impact will continue to increase for many more years.

Recent trends in prostate cancer in Spain. / Tendencias recientes en cáncer de próstata en España.

OBJECTIVE: To assess recent trends in prostate cancer incidence, survival and mortality in Spain using updated data. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: Prostate cancer mortality data have been obtained from the National Institute of Statistics (INE). Incidence cases have been obtained from the databases Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) and European Cancer Information System. Joinpoint regression models were used for trend analysis. The results show the duration (years) of each trend, as well as the Annual Percent Change (APC) for each of them. The direction and magnitude of recent trends (last 5 years available) were evaluated using the percentages of Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC). RESULTS: Incidence rates increased significantly from 16.4 in 1980 to 61.3 in 2014. The joinpoint analysis shows three periods: two initial periods of significant rise (1980-1990; 3.5% and 1990-2004; 8.4%) followed by a final one in which rates stabilize (2004-2014; -0.5%, non-significant). Mortality rates drop from 12.9 in 1980 to 7.9 in 2018, with an AAPC of -1.2% (p<0.05). However, the joinpoint analysis identified three time periods: an initial period of statistically significant rise (1980-1998; APC: 0.6%, p<0.05) and two periods of decreasing rates (1992-2008; APC: -3.3%, p<0.05 and 2008-2018; APC: -2.4%, p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Recent trends (last 5 years) show that mortality rates have decreased and incidence rates have stabilized or even decreased in some age groups.

Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014). / Análisis de las tendencias en la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en Andalucía (1980-2014).

INTRODUCTION: In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. PATIENTS AND METHODS: CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. RESULTS: Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). CONCLUSIONS: Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups.

Has stroke mortality stopped declining in Spain? / ¿Ha dejado de disminuir la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en España?

OBJECTIVES: To analyse the changes in stroke mortality trends in Spain by autonomous community and by sex during the period 1980-2016, using joinpoint regression models. METHODS: Mortality data were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Crude and standardised rates were calculated for each Spanish autonomous community, and for each sex. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the best-fitting points showing a statistically significant change in the trend. RESULTS: Joinpoint analysis enabled us to differentiate between communities in which mortality rates showed a continuous decline throughout the study period in both sexes (Asturias, Cantabria, Castile and Leon, Ceuta, and Melilla) or in men only (Extremadura). In men, in all those communities in which changes in the trend were observed (all but Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Murcia, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from -3.4% in Catalonia and Extremadura, to -6.0% in Madrid) and a final period where the trends diverged: mortality rates continued to fall in Andalusia, Aragon, the Balearic Islands, and Madrid, but began to stabilise in Castile-La Mancha and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. In women, in those communities where changes were observed (all but Aragon, Murcia, and the Basque Country, where rates remained stable), we observed an initial period of decline (ranging from -3.1% in Catalonia to -6.4% in Navarre) and a final period where divergent trends were observed: rates continued to decline in Andalusia, Aragon, Catalonia, Galicia, Madrid, and the Basque Country, but began to stabilise in Extremadura and Murcia and to increase in the Canary Islands. CONCLUSIONS: Current data show that stroke mortality rates have decreased (in women in Andalusia), stabilised (in both sexes in Murcia, in men in Castile-La Mancha, and in women in Extremadura), and have even reversed (in both sexes in the Canary Islands). Further study is needed to identify the causes of these trends.

Lung cancer mortality trends by geographical area in Spanish women, 1980-2005.

OBJECTIVE: To provide up-to-date information and analyse recent changes in lung cancer mortality trends among women. DESIGN: The present study analysed subjects by geographical area in Spain during the period 1980-2005 using joinpoint regression models. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASR) for lung cancer were computed from death certificate data obtained from the official authorities in Spain. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the years when significant changes in the linear slope of the temporal trend occurred. RESULTS: The overall ASR changed during the period studied from 5.7 per 100,000 women in 1980 to 8.2/100,000 in 2005, with an average annual increase of 1.7%. Joinpoint regression analysis detected different trends in most Spanish communities. These changes occurred in the late 1980s or early 1990s. ASR among those women aged 35-64 years doubled during the period of study, from 5.6 in 1980 to 11.3 in 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Time trends in lung cancer mortality among women are increasing sharply, especially in the age group 35-64 years, indicating the start of an epidemic phenomenon of lung cancer in women.

[Recent changes in prostate cancer mortality in Spain. Trends analysis from 1991 to 2005]. / Cambios recientes en la mortalidad por cáncer de próstata en España: estudio de tendencias en el período 1991-2005.

OBJECTIVE: [corrected] To describe the evolution of prostate cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1991-2005. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A trend analysis for age standardized mortality rates (European standard population) was performed, using joinpoint regression analysis, which allows estimation of the annual percent change of rates and to find significant changes in such trend. RESULTS: Age standardized mortality rates in Spain reached their peak value in 1996. The joinpoint analysis identified two different periods in the trend of the age standardized rates: a first one of increase in rates between 1991 and 1996 (2.1% annual increase) and a second period starting in 1996, in which rates decline at an annual rate of 2.7%. CONCLUSION: The tendency of prostate cancer seen in Spain resembles that of industrialized areas, with an increase in its age standardized death rates that suffers a downturn by the end of the past decade. Mortality declines for prostate cancer are now evident in 14 out of the 17 Autonomous Communities. Increases in PSA screening and better treatment of early-stage disease, possibly acting in combination, remain plausible hypotheses.

Age-period-cohort analysis of lung cancer mortality rates in Andalusia, 1975-2004.

Our objective is to describe lung cancer mortality trends in Andalusia, Spain, during the period 1975-2004 using age-period-cohort analysis (APC). For each gender, age-standardised (European Standard Population) mortality rates from lung cancer were computed based on the causes of death on the death certificates from the official registry of vital statistics in Andalusia. In men, after climbing considerably from 1975 to 1994, adjusted lung cancer mortality rates, have been declining by 0.8% per year since 1994. For women, the mortality from lung cancer was almost constant but tended to increase after 1994 (average annual increase of 2.1%). Among males, the cohort effect was steadily and appreciably upwards to the cohort born around 1905, then levelled off, and declined in the youngest generations. An increasing period effect was also observed until 1995. For females, cohort values decreased until the cohort born around 1930, then levelled off, and increased for women born since 1940. Period effect trend was downward until 1990, and upward thereafter. In conclusion, the cohort effect observed for women born since 1940 suggests the start of a lung cancer epidemic associated with a higher prevalence of smokers in women. The decrease in prevalence of smokers among males and the decrease in mortality in younger age groups suggest that the trend initiated in 1994 will continue as long as smoking prevalence continues to decrease.

[Diverging trends in prostate cancer mortality in the autonomous community of Andalucia (1975-2004)]. / Tendencias divergentes en la mortalidad por cáncer de próstata en la comunidad autónoma de Andalucía (1975-2004).

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of prostate cancer mortality in Andalucia during the period 1975-2004 at the provincial level. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: Mortality data for prostate cancer and population denominator data was supplied by the Statistical Institute of Andalucia. Age group-specific and standardised overall and truncated (50-79 years old) rates were calculated by the direct method (European standard population). RESULTS: In 2004 there were 813 deaths in Andalucia from prostate cancer. Prostate cancer accounts for around 8% of male deaths from cancer. Joinpoint analysis shows three diverging trends (fall in Cadiz, Huelva and Malaga, rise in Granada and stabilization in the other provinces) in age-standardized mortality rates. CONCLUSION: In Granada, an increment in mortality from prostate cancer is observed in opposition to the trend in the other provinces.

Has prostate cancer mortality stopped its decline in Spain?

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of prostate cancer mortality in Spain during the period 1980-2013. SUBJECT AND METHOD: The prostate cancer mortality data and population data needed to calculate the indicators were provided by the National Institute of Statistics. We calculated the specific rates by age group, raw and standardised globally using the direct method (European standard population). The rates are expressed for 100,000 person-years. For the analysis of trends in the rates, we used joinpoint regression models. RESULTS: The overall rates adjusted for age in Spain decreased from 21.7 to 15.4 deaths per 100,000 men-years between the starting and ending date of the study period (annual percentage change: -.9%; P<.05). The joinpoint analysis reflects 2 periods: 1980-1998 (.7% annual increase; P<.05) and 1998-2013, during which the rates decreased significantly (-3%; P<.05). Except for the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla where the rates remained stable over the course of the study period, the communities showed 1 or 2 points of inflection in the trends, and all had a final period with a reduction in the rates (except for Galicia and Catalonia, where the rates stabilised in 2008-2013). CONCLUSION: The decline in prostate cancer mortality in Spain appears to have stopped in Galicia and Catalonia.

[Lung cancer mortality in Andalucia, 1975-2000]. / Mortalidad por cáncer de pulmón en Andalucia (1975-2000).

OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in lung cancer mortality in Andalucia, Spain, during the period from 1975 through 2000. SUBJECTS AND METHOD: Records of lung cancer deaths for the period from 1975 through 2000 were obtained from the Statistical Institute of Andalucia. The following indicators were calculated: crude rates, age-adjusted rates, truncated rates, and cumulative rates. RESULTS: Mortality rates for men dropped in all subject groups aged over 50 years during the period from 1994 through 2000. In women mortality rates were much lower, although we observed an increase in the 35-39 and 45-49 age groups, which is reflected in the 6.1% rise in the truncated rates (35-64 years) during the period from 1994 through 2000. In older women mortality rates fluctuated more within the different age groups, although on the whole the truncated rate for all those over 65 years old fell by 9.7% in the period between 1995 and 2000. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer mortality rates among men in Andalusia began to decrease after 1994. In contrast, mortality increased among young women, although their rates are still very low.

[Time analysis of mortality from cerebrovascular diseases in Andalucia (1975-1999)]. / Análisis temporal de la mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en Andalucía (1975-1999).

INTRODUCTION: In previous publications we analysed the tendency of mortality from cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) in Andalusia over the period 1975-1992, and we observed a marked decrease in the mortality rates in both sexes. AIMS. To describe the evolution of mortality from CVD in Andalusia throughout the period 1975-1999. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Deaths from CVD over the period 1975 1999 were obtained from the Instituto Andaluz de Estadística. We employed the direct method of standardisation of rates (world standard population). The rates were subjected to logarithmic transformations and the regression lines were adjusted. RESULTS: A considerable decrease was found in the rates: 3.9% in males and 4.0% in females. The drop in truncated rates (35 64 years old) was greater in women ( 5.9%) than in men ( 4.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Our work shows a marked and continuous decrease in mortality from CVD in Andalusia (1975-1999). In accordance with the process of aging of the population, the magnitude of CVD measured in terms of deaths, invalidity and health costs still represents a great challenge for preventative and health care policies.

Lung cancer mortality in Spain: estimating the future burden to the year 2028.

OBJECTIVE: To use lung cancer mortality rates from 1979 to 2008 in Andalusia, southern Spain (population >8,000,000), to provide an estimate of the future number of deaths for the period 2009-2028. DESIGN: The numbers of lung cancer deaths from 1979 to 2008 were obtained from the Andalusian Institute for Statistics (AIS). Data were arranged in 5-year age groups using an age-period-cohort model. Age-standardised rates (ASR) per 100, 000 were calculated for males and females. Population projections for Andalusia 2009-2028 were downloaded from the AIS database. RESULTS: In males, the ASR varied from 46.1 in 2004-2008 to 34.6 in 2024-2028, with a projected 33% decrease. In females, the ASR varied from 4.9 in 2004-2008 to 8.9 per 100,000 in 2024-2028, with a projected 45% increase. This reflects an annual change of -1.3% for males and of +2.7% for females for the period 2009-2028. The sex ratio is projected to drop from a male:female ratio of 11 (1979-1983) to 3.8 (2024-2028). CONCLUSIONS: Our projections emphasise the significance of a continuously increasing trend in female lung cancer mortality, with a drop in the projected sex ratio.

Has mortality from malignant melanoma stopped rising in Spain? Analysis of trends between 1975 and 2001.

BACKGROUND: There have been suggestions that mortality from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is starting to level off in the European Union. OBJECTIVES: To analyse changes in CMM mortality trends in Spain during 1975-2001 using joinpoint regression models. METHODS: Mortality data were obtained from the National Statistics Institute. For each gender, age group-specific and standardized (overall and truncated) rates were calculated by the direct method (using the world standard population). The joinpoint analysis was used to identify the best-fitting points where a statistically significant change in the trend occurred. RESULTS: In women, there was a marked increase from 1975 to 1994 in age-adjusted (overall and truncated) CMM mortality rates [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) 6.6% and 7.0%, respectively; P < 0.05], followed by a levelling off (EAPC - 0.3% and - 1.3%, respectively; not significant). In men, age-adjusted (35-64 years) mortality rates increased steadily from 1975 to 1991 (EAPC 9.1%, P < 0.05) and then levelled off. CONCLUSIONS: We confirmed that CMM mortality rates in Spain rose dramatically from the mid-1970s to the beginning of the 1990s, but we also found that mortality rates are now levelling off in middle-aged adults (35-64 years), following a similar tendency to that observed in other countries.

Age-period-cohort analysis of breast cancer mortality rates in Andalucia (Spain).

BACKGROUND: The aim of this paper is to analyse breast cancer mortality in Andalucia (Spain) between 1975 and 1999 based on age-period-cohort. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Registry of Andalucia. Deaths and population were divided into 13 age groups and five 5-year periods. From this, age-specific mortality rates for 17 birth cohorts were computed. These were plotted and fitted to Poisson regression models to assess age, period and cohort effects. RESULTS: The best fit was found for the complete model, which simultaneously considered the effects of age-period-cohort. Cohort effects were found to be more important than period effects in terms of model fit. CONCLUSION: These effects were manifest as a seemingly consistent increase in the relative risk of breast cancer mortality with a three-fold increase in women born in the 1950s relative to those born in the 1890s.

Joinpoint regression analysis of lung cancer mortality, Andalusia 1975-2000.

BACKGROUND: Previous analyses of lung cancer mortality were based on models of death rates within one time period, assuming that rates increase or decrease with time at a constant rate. The aim of this work is to analyse recent changes in lung cancer mortality trends in Andalusia (Spain) during the period of 1975-2000 using joinpoint regression models. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Mortality data were obtained from the Death Registry of Andalusia. For each gender, age group-specific and standardised (overall and truncated) rates were calculated by the direct method (using the world standard population). The joinpoint analysis was used to identify the best-fitting points where a statistically significant change in the trend occurred. RESULTS: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality in men, with an increasing trend up to 1994. After that year, rates began to decrease significantly (-1.8% yearly from 1994 to 2000). Standardised rates in women exhibited a downward trend until the early 1990s, after which they levelled off (overall standardised rates) or increased significantly (truncated rates 35-64 years). CONCLUSIONS: An increase in lung cancer mortality has been observed in young women. There seems to be a relationship with the prevalence in smoking in men and women.

[Stroke mortality in Andalusia: where are we going?]. / Mortalidad por enfermedades cerebrovasculares en Andalucía: hacia dónde vamos?

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to explore temporal changes in stroke mortality in Andalusia over the period 1975-1994 and estimate the rates until the year 2000. DESIGN: Descriptive study. SETTING: Comunidad Andaluza. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The number of death from stroke was obtained for the period 1975-1994. Mortality raes were standardized directly using those of the "European population" as the standard, and regression analysis was undertaken. RESULTS: Age standardized overall mortality rates for stroke decreased considerably among men (45.6%). A similar pattern has been also observed among women (43.2%) during the period 1975-1992. If the trends continue during the period 1992-2000 we will observe an important reduction in both men (23.4%) and women (24.9%). CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, this analysis shows a marked an steady fall in stroke mortality over the last two decades in Andalusia. Little is known about the factors that have led to the decline and further studies are necessary. A better understanding of these factors is important for planning the most effective intervention strategies to reduce, stroke mortality in our community.

[Analysis of mortality trends of ischemic heart disease in Andalucia (1975-1992)]. / Análisis temporal de la mortalidad por enfermedades isquémicas del corazón en Andalucía (1975-1992).

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of mortality due to ischaemic heart diseases in Andalucia between 1975 and 1992 and predict rates up to the year 2000. DESIGN: Descriptive study. SETTING: The Autonomous Community of Andalucia. Patients and other participants. Deaths because of ischaemic heart diseases between 1975 and 1992 were obtained. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The direct method was used for the standardisation of mortality rates for age and sex, with the European population as the standard. Logarithmic transformations of the standardised rates for mortality due to ischaemic heart diseases for both sexes were performed and the regression lines were adjusted. Between 1975 and 1992 the theoretical rates went down both in men and women. If the same tendency were maintained, we would expect to see a moderate reduction between 1992 and 2000 in men and in women. CONCLUSIONS: The tendency of mortality due to ischaemic heart diseases in Andalucia is downwards in both men and women.