RESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the long-term prognostic value of coronary CT angiography (cCTA)-derived plaque measures and clinical parameters on major adverse cardiac events (MACE) using machine learning (ML). METHODS: Datasets of 361 patients (61.9 ± 10.3 years, 65% male) with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) who underwent cCTA were retrospectively analyzed. MACE was recorded. cCTA-derived adverse plaque features and conventional CT risk scores together with cardiovascular risk factors were provided to a ML model to predict MACE. A boosted ensemble algorithm (RUSBoost) utilizing decision trees as weak learners with repeated nested cross-validation to train and validate the model was used. Performance of the ML model was calculated using the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: MACE was observed in 31 patients (8.6%) after a median follow-up of 5.4 years. Discriminatory power was significantly higher for the ML model (AUC 0.96 [95%CI 0.93-0.98]) compared with conventional CT risk scores including Agatston calcium score (AUC 0.84 [95%CI 0.80-0.87]), segment involvement score (AUC 0.88 [95%CI 0.84-0.91]), and segment stenosis score (AUC 0.89 [95%CI 0.86-0.92], all p < 0.05). Similar results were shown for adverse plaque measures (AUCs 0.72-0.82, all p < 0.05) and clinical parameters including the Framingham risk score (AUCs 0.71-0.76, all p < 0.05). The ML model yielded significantly higher diagnostic performance compared with logistic regression analysis (AUC 0.96 vs. 0.92, p = 0.024). CONCLUSION: Integration of a ML model improves the long-term prediction of MACE when compared with conventional CT risk scores, adverse plaque measures, and clinical information. ML algorithms may improve the integration of patient's information to enhance risk stratification. KEY POINTS: ⢠A machine learning (ML) model portends high discriminatory power to predict major adverse cardiac events (MACE). ⢠ML-based risk stratification shows superior diagnostic performance for MACE prediction over coronary CT angiography (cCTA)-derived risk scores or clinical parameters alone. ⢠A ML model outperforms conventional logistic regression analysis for the prediction of MACE.
Assuntos
Doença da Artéria Coronariana , Estenose Coronária , Placa Aterosclerótica , Angiografia por Tomografia Computadorizada , Angiografia Coronária , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/diagnóstico por imagem , Estenose Coronária/diagnóstico por imagem , Feminino , Humanos , Aprendizado de Máquina , Masculino , Placa Aterosclerótica/diagnóstico por imagem , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Medição de Risco , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios XRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: We sought to assess the angiographic and long-term clinical outcomes in a predominantly medically treated population with spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD). BACKGROUND: There are little data on the angiographic and long-term outcome in patients with SCAD. METHODS: We studied 64 patients with SCAD (mean age 53 years, 94% females, three peripartum) with acute coronary syndrome who were treated using coronary bypass grafting (n = 1), percutaneous coronary intervention (n = 7), or medical therapy (n = 56). A repeat angiogram was performed in 40/64 (63%) patients. The median clinical follow-up was 4.5 years. RESULTS: Five (8%) patients had a major cardiac event. One patient with peripartum left main SCAD and cardiogenic shock died during PCI. One patient with conservatively treated SCAD of the posterior descending artery suffered out-of-hospital cardiac arrest 16 days after the initial angiogram but survived. Three patients experienced a second SCAD in another vessel 3.7, 4.7, and 7.9 years after the index event while the initial dissection had healed. Thirty medically treated patients underwent a scheduled repeat angiogram showing healing of the dissection in all but one patient. After a median follow-up of 4.5 (1.8-8.4) years, all 63 patients surviving the index event were alive and free of symptoms suggestive of myocardial ischemia. CONCLUSIONS: In general, the long-term outcome of patients with SCAD is excellent, and medical therapy can be safely applied in the majority of patients. However, SCAD can be a life-threatening and sometimes catastrophic event, and some patients experience early or late complications including SCAD of another vessel. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Assuntos
Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/diagnóstico por imagem , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/terapia , Fármacos Cardiovasculares/uso terapêutico , Angiografia Coronária , Anomalias dos Vasos Coronários/diagnóstico por imagem , Anomalias dos Vasos Coronários/terapia , Doenças Vasculares/congênito , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/etiologia , Síndrome Coronariana Aguda/mortalidade , Adulto , Fármacos Cardiovasculares/efeitos adversos , Ponte de Artéria Coronária , Anomalias dos Vasos Coronários/complicações , Anomalias dos Vasos Coronários/mortalidade , Intervalo Livre de Doença , Feminino , Humanos , Estimativa de Kaplan-Meier , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Parada Cardíaca Extra-Hospitalar/etiologia , Intervenção Coronária Percutânea , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Gravidez , Recidiva , Sistema de Registros , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Risco , Choque Cardiogênico/etiologia , Suíça , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do Tratamento , Doenças Vasculares/complicações , Doenças Vasculares/diagnóstico por imagem , Doenças Vasculares/mortalidade , Doenças Vasculares/terapiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND/AIMS: Patients with cirrhosis are classified in a compensated and a decompensated stage. Portal hypertension is responsible for most of the complications of cirrhosis that mark the transition from compensated to decompensated cirrhosis. The objectives of this study were (a) to analyse survival of the different stages and substages of cirrhosis and (b) to examine the prognostic value of the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) at each of the stages. METHODS: A total of 729 patients with suspected cirrhosis underwent routine measurement of portal pressure and systemic haemodynamics between 11/1995 and 12/2004. The primary end-point of the study was death, collected until November 30th, 2006. Multivariable analysis was performed using two models to determine predictors of death at each stage. RESULTS: A total of 443 patients were included in the study. The 1-year mortality was 5.4% in compensated and 20.2% in decompensated patients. Compensated patients in stage 1 (no varices) had a longer survival than stage 2 patients (varices present) (P = 0.015). In decompensated patients, survival was not different between stage 3 (ascites, with or without varices) and stage 4 (variceal haemorrhage, with or without ascites). Age and HVPG (cut-off 10 mmHg) were independent predictors of death in compensated patients, whereas MELD was in decompensated patients. CONCLUSION: Survival rates and predictors of death are different between patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Unlike the Italian cohort staging system, ascites is a better stratifying clinical event than variceal haemorrhage in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. The presence of clinically significant portal hypertension has prognostic value in compensated cirrhosis.
Assuntos
Ascite/diagnóstico , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas/diagnóstico , Hipertensão Portal/diagnóstico , Cirrose Hepática/diagnóstico , Pressão na Veia Porta , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Ascite/complicações , Ascite/mortalidade , Ascite/fisiopatologia , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas/complicações , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas/mortalidade , Feminino , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Veias Hepáticas/fisiopatologia , Humanos , Hipertensão Portal/complicações , Hipertensão Portal/mortalidade , Lactente , Cirrose Hepática/complicações , Cirrose Hepática/mortalidade , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pressão na Veia Porta/fisiologia , Prognóstico , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Taxa de Sobrevida , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Background: Acute myocarditis is commonly associated with viral infections, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Myocarditis following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination has also been reported, however this is rare and usually resolves within days or weeks. We present a case of acute myocarditis reported after vaccination with mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine (Moderna) diagnosed using cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR). This report describes the utility of CMR in the diagnosis and follow-up of such patients using parameters which could suggest the clinical course of myocarditis. Case Summary: A 23-year-old male presented in the emergency department with complaints of chest pain radiating to the left arm following vaccination with the second dose of COVID-19 mRNA-1273 vaccine (Moderna). Patient's history revealed an incidence of myocarditis in the past. CMR showed a mid-range left ventricular ejection fraction (38%) and subepicardial late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) in the inferolateral and apical myocardial segments with diffuse elevation of native T1 mapping relaxation times in all myocardial segments. The patient was admitted briefly in the intensive care unit and after a favorable clinical course was discharged from the hospital in stable condition. A follow-up CMR after 3 months revealed normalization of LVEF (57%) and native T1- times in most segments. Scarred myocardium reflecting chronic myocarditis continued to show elevated T1 times. Conclusions: Our patient presenting with acute myocarditis after recent COVID-19 mRNA vaccination reported a favorable clinical course. CMR revealed increased T1 mapping relaxation times diffusely spread across the myocardium and an impairment of the left ventricular function (LVEF) during the acute phase. However, the LVEF as well as the T1 times normalized at follow-up in all segments except for myocardium affected by chronic myocarditis.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We aimed to evaluate the association of epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) with coronary CT angiography (CCTA) plaque parameters on cardiovascular outcome in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. METHODS: Data of 353 patients (62.9 ± 10.4 years, 62% male), who underwent CCTA as part of their clinical workup for the evaluation of suspected or known CAD, were retrospectively analyzed. EAT volume and plaque parameters from CCTA were compared in patients with diabetes (n = 63) and without diabetes (n = 290). Follow-up was performed to record adverse cardiovascular events. The predictive value to detect adverse cardiovascular events was assessed using concordance indices (CIs) and multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: In total, 33 events occurred after a median follow-up of 5.1 years. In patients with diabetes, EAT volume and plaque parameters were significantly higher than in patients without diabetes (all p < 0.05). A multivariable model demonstrated an incrementally improved C-index of 0.84 (95%CI 0.80-0.88) over the Framingham risk score and single measures alone. In multivariable Cox regression analysis EAT volume (Hazard ratio[HR] 1.21, p = 0.022), obstructive CAD (HR 1.18, p = 0.042), and ≥2 high-risk plaque features (HR 2.13, p = 0.031) were associated with events in patients with diabetes and obstructive CAD (HR 1.88, p = 0.017), and Agatston calcium score (HR 1.009, p = 0.039) in patients without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: EAT, as a biomarker of inflammation, and plaque parameters, as an extent of atherosclerotic CAD, are higher in patients with diabetes and are associated with increased adverse cardiovascular outcomes. These parameters may help identify patients at high risk with need for more aggressive therapeutic and preventive care.
Assuntos
Doença da Artéria Coronariana , Diabetes Mellitus , Placa Aterosclerótica , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Angiografia por Tomografia Computadorizada , Estudos Retrospectivos , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/complicações , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/diagnóstico por imagem , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/epidemiologia , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Angiografia Coronária , Pericárdio/diagnóstico por imagem , Tecido Adiposo/diagnóstico por imagem , Diabetes Mellitus/diagnóstico , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) predicts mortality in end stage liver disease. Incorporation of serum sodium into the MELD may improve diagnostic accuracy in decompensated patients with ascites. However, other complications of cirrhosis are not reflected. This study investigates whether quantitative liver function tests predict survival and increase prognostic accuracy of the MELD. METHODS: 604 patients with suspected cirrhosis were staged clinically and haemodynamically. Galactose-elimination-capacity, sorbitol clearance, lidocaine metabolism and indocyanin green (ICG) half life were determined. Survival was the primary end point of the study. Prognostic effects of individual parameters were calculated using Cox regression models and ROC curves. RESULTS: 321 patients on standard pharmacological and endoscopic treatment (PET) and 74 patients undergoing transjugular portosystemic shunting (TIPS) were studied. Of all quantitative liver function tests, ICG half life was the most accurate in predicting survival. Upon incorporation into the MELD, it modified the score in patients with PET up to 35 points. Clinically relevant changes to the score, however, occurred in patients with a MELD score between 10 and 30, allowing an objective prognostic discrimination of individual survival based on laboratory liver function and blood flow. The MELD-ICG was validated in the second cohort of patients undergoing TIPS implantation. CONCLUSION: ICG had the highest predictive value of the examined tests. Its incorporation into the MELD adds an estimation of liver blood flow and renders the new score MELD-ICG more accurate in predicting survival in intermediate to advanced cirrhosis than the MELD and MELD-Na.
Assuntos
Cirrose Hepática/diagnóstico , Falência Hepática/etiologia , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Corantes , Métodos Epidemiológicos , Feminino , Meia-Vida , Humanos , Verde de Indocianina , Circulação Hepática , Cirrose Hepática/complicações , Testes de Função Hepática/métodos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , PrognósticoRESUMO
AIMS OF THE STUDY: Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) is an increasingly diagnosed cause of acute myocardial infarction. However, there is still a limited number of larger cohorts with long-term follow-up. We report on the largest Swiss single-centre cohort to date, with follow-up of up to 22 years. METHODS: We prospectively collected SCAD cases from June 1998 until December 2020. A strategy of systematic follow-up angiography was applied. Information on long-term follow-up was collected up to the end of 2020. Major cardiovascular events (MACE) were defined as all-cause death, non-fatal MI, and non-fatal cardiac arrest. RESULTS: We identified 105 SCAD patients (mean age 53 ± 11 years, 98 female, 5 peripartum). Presentation was myocardial infarction in all patients. In 102 patients, there was one contiguous dissection. Three patients had two (n = 2) or three (n = 1) non-contiguous dissections. In the majority of patients (n = 97), the primary treatment approach was conservative (dual antiplatelet therapy for 12 months in 90% of patients, statins in 91%). Seven patients were treated with percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and one patient underwent bypass surgery. Elective follow-up angiograms were performed in 73 asymptomatic patients after a median follow-up of 6.0 months (interquartile range [IQR] 5.5-6.5). These showed healing of the dissection (n = 65) or a good result after PCI (n = 5) in 70 patients. Three patients had a persistent dissection but conservative treatment was continued. After a median follow-up of 7.5 years (IQR 3.6-12.5) (longest follow-up: 22.5 years) there were 15 MACE. Five MACE occurred within 30 days of the index event: death following catastrophic peripartum left main SCAD (n = 1), out-of-hospital cardiac arrest with successful resuscitation 16 days after SCAD (n = 1), ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction due to occlusion of the dissected artery 10 hours after the index angiogram with subsequent PCI (n = 1), SCAD of a second vessel 8 days after the index SCAD (n = 1), and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction with persistent, multisite SCAD 10 days after the index event (n = 1). There were 10 late MACE, including myocardial infarction and recurrent SCAD (different vessel/lesion) a median of 7.6 years (IQR 3.9-9.6) after the index event in eight patients and death with unclear cause in two patients. CONCLUSION: This SCAD series highlights its highly variable clinical course during the acute phase and in the long term. Although most SCAD patients can be treated conservatively with subsequent healing of the dissection and good clinical outcome, there are also patients with dramatic acute presentation or MACE several years after the initial presentation.