Active governance of agro-pastoral, forest and protected areas mitigates wildfire impacts in Italy.

Wildfire regimes affected by global change have been the cause of major concern in recent years. Both direct prevention (e.g., fuel management planning) and land governance strategies (e.g., agroforestry development) can have an indirect regulatory effect on wildfires. Herein, we tested the hypothesis that active land planning and management in Italy have mitigated wildfire impacts in terms of loss of ecosystem services and forest cover, and burned wildland-urban interface, from 2007 to 2017. At the national scale, we assessed the effect size of major potential fire drivers such as climate, weather, flammability, socio-economic descriptors, land use changes, and proxies for land governance (e.g., European funds for rural development, investments in sustainable forest management, agro-pastoral activities), including potential interactions, on fire-related impacts via Random Forest modelling and Generalized Additive Mixed Model. Agro-forest districts (i.e., aggregations of neighbouring municipalities with homogeneous forest and agricultural characteristics) were used as spatial units of analysis. Our results confirm that territories with more active land governance show lower wildfire impacts, even under severe flammability and climatic conditions. This study supports current regional, national, and European strategies towards "fire resistant and resilient landscapes" by fostering agro-forestry, rural development, and nature conservation integrated policies.

The background context matters: Local-scale socioeconomic conditions and the spatial distribution of wildfires in Italy.

Wildfires, a key socio-environmental challenge in Mediterranean regions, are influenced by anthropogenic factors shaping land-use and socioeconomic spatial structures. By assuming that the dominant socioeconomic structure of local districts exerts a variable impact on wildfire spatial regimes, the present study investigates 174 indicators on a municipal scale in Italy, identifying a multidimensional relationship between wildfire characteristics and socioeconomic contexts. An exploratory statistical approach was adopted to identify linear and non-linear relationships among variables assessing socioeconomic contexts and wildfire patterns. Empirical results demonstrate that characteristic wildfire attributes (frequency, intensity and severity) are systematically higher in socioeconomic contexts characterized by rural poverty, unemployment and deregulated urban expansion, especially in southern Italy. A higher fire frequency was typically observed in (i) peri-urban districts with a dynamic socio-demographic profile and (ii) in rural districts with intensive cropping systems. Joint information on socioeconomic structure/dynamics and environmental change, is crucial for a better understanding of local-scale spatial patterns of wildfires in the Mediterranean region. Integrated socio-environmental information provides a better understanding of the local communities' role in the management of wildfire-prone land, contributing to implement more effective strategies aimed at minimizing wildfire impact on land resources.