Phenotypic variation in the molt characteristics of a seasonal coat color-changing species reveals limited resilience to climate change.

The snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus) possesses a broad suite of adaptations to winter, including a seasonal coat color molt. Recently, climate change has been implicated in the range contraction of snowshoe hares along the southern range boundary. With shortening snow season duration, snowshoe hares are experiencing increased camouflage mismatch with their environment reducing survival. Phenological variation of hare molt at regional scales could facilitate local adaptation in the face of climate change, but the level of variation, especially along the southern range boundary, is unknown. Using a network of trail cameras and historical museum specimens, we (1) developed contemporary and historical molt phenology curves in the Upper Great Lakes region, USA, (2) calculated molt rate and variability in and among populations, and (3) quantified the relationship of molt characteristics to environmental conditions for snowshoe hares across North America. We found that snowshoe hares across the region exhibited similar fall and spring molt phenologies, rates and variation. Yet, an insular island population of hares on Isle Royale National Park, MI, completed their molt a week earlier in the fall and initiated molt almost 2 weeks later in the spring as well as exhibited slower rates of molting in the fall season compared to the mainland. Over the last 100 years, snowshoe hares across the region have not shifted in fall molt timing; though contemporary spring molt appears to have advanced by 17 days (~ 4 days per decade) compared to historical molt phenology. Our research indicates that some variation in molt phenology exists for snowshoe hares in the Upper Great Lakes region, but whether this variation is enough to offset the consequences of climate change remains to be seen.

Modelling moose-forest interactions under different predation scenarios at Isle Royale National Park, USA.

Loss of top predators may contribute to high ungulate population densities and chronic over-browsing of forest ecosystems. However, spatial and temporal variability in the strength of interactions between predators and ungulates occurs over scales that are much shorter than the scales over which forest communities change, making it difficult to characterize trophic cascades in forest ecosystems. We applied the LANDIS-II forest succession model and a recently developed ungulate browsing extension to model how the moose population could interact with the forest ecosystem of Isle Royale National Park, USA, under three different wolf predation scenarios. We contrasted a 100-yr future without wolves (no predation) with two predation scenarios (weak, long-term average predation rates and strong, higher than average rates). Increasing predation rates led to lower peak moose population densities, lower biomass removal rates, and higher estimates of forage availability and landscape carrying capacity, especially during the first 40 yr of simulations. Thereafter, moose population density was similar for all predation scenarios, but available forage biomass and the carrying capacity of the landscape continued to diverge among predation scenarios. Changes in total aboveground live biomass and species composition were most pronounced in the no predation and weak predation scenarios. Consistent with smaller-scale studies, high browsing rates led to reductions in the biomass of heavily browsed Populus tremuloides, Betula papyrifera, and Abies balsamea, and increases in the biomass of unbrowsed Picea glauca and Picea mariana, especially after the simulation year 2050, when existing boreal hardwood stands at Isle Royale are projected to senesce. As a consequence, lower predation rates corresponded with a landscape that progressively shifted toward dominance by Picea glauca and Picea mariana, and lacking available forage biomass. Consistencies with previously documented small-scale successional shifts, and population estimates and trends that approximate those from this and other boreal forests that support moose provide some confidence that these dynamics represent a trophic cascade and therefore provide an important baseline against which to evaluate long-term and large-scale effects of alternative predator management strategies on ungulate populations and forest succession.

Absence of SARS-CoV-2 in wildlife of northeastern Minnesota and Isle Royale National Park.

AIMS: We investigated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in free-ranging wildlife populations in Northeastern Minnesota on the Grand Portage Indian Reservation and Isle Royale National Park. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred twenty nasal samples were collected from white-tailed deer, moose, grey wolves and black bears monitored for conservation efforts during 2022-2023. Samples were tested for viral RNA by RT-qPCR using the CDC N1/N2 primer set. Our data indicate that no wildlife samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. CONCLUSIONS: Continued surveillance is therefore crucial to better understand the changing landscape of zoonotic SARS-CoV-2 in the Upper Midwest.

Temporal variation in translocated Isle Royale wolf diet.

Wolves (Canis lupus) can exert top-down pressure and shape ecological communities through the predation of ungulates and beavers (Castor spp.). Therefore, understanding wolf foraging is critical to estimating their ecosystem-level effects. Specifically, if wolves are consumers that optimize tradeoffs between the cost and benefits of prey acquisition, changes in these factors may lead to prey-switching or negative-density dependent selection with potential consequences for community stability. For wolves, factors affecting cost and benefits include prey vulnerability, risk, reward, and availability, which can vary temporally. We described the wolf diet by the frequency of occurrence and percent biomass and characterized the diet using prey remains found in wolf scats on Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, USA, during May-October 2019 and 2020. We used logistic regression to estimate prey consumption over time. We predicted prey with temporal variation in cost (availability and/or vulnerability) such as adult moose (Alces alces), calf moose, and beaver (Castor canadensis) to vary in wolf diets. We analyzed 206 scats and identified 62% of remains as beaver, 26% as moose, and 12% as other species (birds, smaller mammals, and wolves). Adult moose were more likely to occur in wolf scats in May when moose are in poor condition following winter. The occurrence of moose calves peaked during June-mid-July following birth but before calf vulnerability declined as they matured. By contrast, beaver occurrence in wolf scat did not change over time, reflecting the importance of low-handling cost prey items for recently introduced lone or paired wolves. Our results demonstrate that the wolf diet is responsive to temporal changes in prey costs. Temporal fluctuation in diet may influence wolves' ecological role if prey respond to increased predation risk by altering foraging or breeding behavior.

Dynamic colonization history in a rediscovered Isle Royale carnivore.

Island ecosystems are globally threatened, and efforts to restore historical communities are widespread. Such conservation efforts should be informed by accurate assessments of historical community composition to establish appropriate restoration targets. Isle Royale National Park is one of the most researched island ecosystems in the world, yet little is actually known about the biogeographic history of most Isle Royale taxa. To address this uncertainty and inform restoration targets, we determined the phylogeographic history of American martens (Martes americana), a species rediscovered on Isle Royale 76 years after presumed extirpation. We characterized the genetic composition of martens throughout the Great Lakes region using nuclear and mitochondrial markers, identified the source of Isle Royale martens using genetic structure analyses, and used demographic bottleneck tests to evaluate (eliminate redundancy of test). 3 competing colonization scenarios. Martens exhibited significant structure regionally, including a distinct Isle Royale cluster, but mitochondrial sequences revealed no monophyletic clades or evolutionarily significant units. Rather, martens were historically extirpated and recolonized Isle Royale from neighbouring Ontario, Canada in the late 20th century. These findings illustrate the underappreciated dynamics of island communities, underscore the importance of historical biogeography for establishing restoration baselines, and provide optimism for extirpated and declining Isle Royale vertebrates whose reintroductions have been widely debated.