Importance of clinical measures of ischemia in the prognosis of patients with documented coronary artery disease.

To examine the value of clinical measures of ischemia for stratifying prognosis, 5,886 consecutive patients who had symptomatic significant (greater than or equal to 75% stenosis) coronary artery disease were studied. Using the Cox regression model in a randomly selected half of the patients, the prognostically independent clinical variables were weighted and arranged into a simple angina score: angina score = angina course X (1 + daily angina frequency) + ST-T changes, where angina course was equal to 3 if unstable or variant angina was present, 2 if the patient's angina was progressive with nocturnal episodes, 1 if it was progressive without nocturnal symptoms and 0 if it was stable; 6 points were added for the presence of "ischemic" ST-T changes. This angina score was then validated in an independent patient sample. The score was a more powerful predictor of prognosis than was any individual anginal descriptor. Furthermore, the angina score added significant independent prognostic information to the patient's age, sex, coronary anatomy and left ventricular function. Patients with three vessel disease and a normal ventricle (n = 1,233) had a 2 year infarction-free survival rate of 90% with an angina score of 0 and a 68% survival rate with an angina score greater than or equal to 9. With an ejection fraction less than 50% and three vessel disease (n = 1,116), the corresponding infarction-free survival figures were 76 and 56%.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Prognostic value of a coronary artery jeopardy score.

The prognostic value of a coronary artery jeopardy score was evaluated in 462 consecutive nonsurgically treated patients with significant coronary artery disease, but without significant left main coronary stenosis. The jeopardy score is a simple method for estimating the amount of myocardium at risk on the basis of the particular location of coronary artery stenoses. In patients with a previous myocardial infarction, higher jeopardy scores were associated with a lower left ventricular ejection fraction. When the jeopardy score and the number of diseased vessels were considered individually, each descriptor effectively stratified prognosis. Five year survival was 97% in patients with a jeopardy score of 2 and 95, 85, 78, 75 and 56%, respectively, for patients with a jeopardy score of 4, 6, 8, 10 and 12. In multivariable analysis when only jeopardy score and number of diseased vessels were considered, the jeopardy score contained all of the prognostic information. Thus, the number of diseased vessels added no prognostic information to the jeopardy score. The left ventricular ejection fraction was more closely related to prognosis than was the jeopardy score. When other anatomic factors were examined, the degree of stenosis of each vessel, particularly the left anterior descending coronary artery, was found to add prognostic information to the jeopardy score. Thus, the jeopardy score is a simple method for describing the coronary anatomy. It provides more prognostic information than the number of diseased coronary arteries, but it can be improved by including the degree of stenosis of each vessel and giving additional weight to disease of the left anterior descending coronary artery.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Prognostic value of ventricular arrhythmias associated with treadmill exercise testing in patients studied with cardiac catheterization for suspected ischemic heart disease.

The prognostic information provided by ventricular arrhythmias associated with treadmill exercise testing was evaluated in 1,293 consecutive nonsurgically treated patients undergoing an exercise test within 6 weeks of cardiac catheterization. The 236 patients with simple ventricular arrhythmias (at least one premature ventricular complex, but without paired complexes or ventricular tachycardia) had a higher prevalence of significant coronary artery disease (57 versus 44%), three vessel disease (31 versus 17%) and abnormal left ventricular function (43 versus 24%) than did patients without ventricular arrhythmias. Patients with paired complexes or ventricular tachycardia had an even higher prevalence of significant coronary artery disease (75%), three vessel disease (39%) and abnormal left ventricular function (54%). In the 620 patients with significant coronary artery disease, patients with paired complexes or ventricular tachycardia had a lower 3 year survival rate (75%) than did patients with simple ventricular arrhythmias (83%) and patients with no ventricular arrhythmias (90%). Ventricular arrhythmias were found to add independent prognostic information to the noninvasive evaluation, including history, physical examination, chest roentgenogram, electrocardiogram and other exercise test variables (p = 0.03). Ventricular arrhythmias made no independent contribution once the cardiac catheterization data were known. In patients without significant coronary artery disease, no relation between ventricular arrhythmias and survival was found.

A new information system for medical practice.

A data bank containing our clinical experience with more than 3,000 patients with suspected and documented ischemic heart disease is being used to expand our ability to care for patients. This report describes how the experience is documented, stored, and retrieved so that it can be used in patient management. Data acquisition is integrated with patient care by means of forms that are part of the patient record. Follow-up information is obtained at six months, one year, and yearly thereafter. All data are stored in a computer information system that allows the doctor to recall the experience of patients like his new patient. Prognostic information is available on each new patient both on-line and in the form of a printed laboratory report. The data bank represents an initial chapter of a computer textbook of medicine.

Risk of ischemic heart disease in patients with TIA.

A prospective study was made of the morbidity and mortality from ischemic heart disease in 390 patients with focal TIA caused by atherosclerotic vascular disease. The 5-year cumulative rate of myocardial infarction or sudden death in these patients was 21.0%, a rate only slightly less than that of fatal or nonfatal cerebral infarction (22.7%). Risk factors including diabetes, angina, and ECG abnormalities were associated with an increase in morbidity and mortality from ischemic heart disease. A major factor associated with these cardiac events was the presence of atherosclerotic obstructive or ulcerative lesions in the carotid arteries. These observations indicate that focal TIA caused by carotid atherosclerosis is a predictor not only of cerebral infarction, but also of serious cardiac disease and death.

Estimating the likelihood of significant coronary artery disease.

Among 23 clinical characteristics examined in 3,627 consecutive, symptomatic patients referred for cardiac catheterization between 1969 and 1979, nine were found to be important for estimating the likelihood a patient had significant coronary artery disease. A model using these characteristics accurately estimated the likelihood of disease when applied prospectively to 1,811 patients referred since 1979 and when used to estimate the prevalence of disease in subgroups reported in the literature. Since accurate estimates of the likelihood of significant disease that are based on clinical characteristics are reproducible, they should be used in interpreting the results of additional noninvasive tests and in quantitating the added diagnostic value.

Factors affecting sensitivity and specificity of exercise electrocardiography. Multivariable analysis.

Unlike the predictive value of a diagnostic test, which depends on the prevalence of disease in the population tested, its sensitivity and specificity have been assumed to be constants. This assumption was examined in patients who had both exercise electrocardiography and cardiac catheterization. The effects on sensitivity of factors from clinical history, catheterization, and exercise performance were defined by multivariable logistic regression analysis in 1,401 patients with coronary disease; effects on specificity were defined by a similar analysis in 868 patients without coronary disease. Five factors had significant, independent effects on exercise electrocardiographic sensitivity: maximal exercise heart rate, number of diseased coronary arteries, type of angina, and the patient's age and sex. Only maximal exercise heart rate had a significant, independent effect on exercise electrocardiographic specificity. Thus, the sensitivity and specificity of exercise electrocardiography vary with clinical history, extent of disease, and treadmill performance; the sensitivity and specificity of other diagnostic tests may also vary.

Predicting outcome in coronary disease. Statistical models versus expert clinicians.

To study the accuracy with which long-term prognosis can be predicted in patients with coronary artery disease, prognostic predictions from a data-based multivariable statistical model were compared with predictions from senior clinical cardiologists. Test samples of 100 patients each were selected from a large series of medically treated patients with significant coronary disease. Using detailed case summaries, five senior cardiologists each predicted one- and three-year survival and infarct-free survival probabilities for 100 patients. Fifty patients appeared in multiple samples for assessing interphysician variability. Cox regression models, developed using patients not in the test samples, predicted corresponding outcome probabilities for each test patient. Overall, model predictions correlated better with actual patient outcomes than did the doctors' predictions. For three-year survival, rank correlations were 0.61 (model) and 0.49 (doctors). For three-year infarct-free survival predictions, correlations with outcome were 0.48 (model) and 0.29 (doctors). Comparisons by individual doctor revealed Cox model three-year survival predictions were better than those of four of five doctors (model predictions added significant [p less than 0.05] prognostic information to the doctor's predictions, whereas the converse was not true). For infarct-free survival, the Cox model was superior to all five doctors. Where predictions were made by multiple doctors, the interphysician variability was substantial. In coronary artery disease, statistical models developed from carefully collected data can provide prognostic predictions that are more accurate than predictions of experienced clinicians made from detailed case summaries.

Clinical relevance of exercise-induced S-T segment elevation.

Patients with exercise-induced S-T elevation or S-T depression were evaluated with demographic, treadmill and angiographic data. When 541 patients with S-T depression were compared with 109 patients with S-T elevation, a greater proportion of the former had chest pain (71 versus 58 percent) and a normal-sized ventricle (86 versus 61 percent) with normal wall motion (54 versus 30 percent). A greater proportion of patients with S-T elevation had had a previous myocardial infarction (61 versus 33 percent). Among patients without prior infarction (360 with S-T depression and 42 with S-T elevation), these differences disappeared. In this group of 42 patients with S-T elevation, 83 percent had a normal-sized ventricle, 64 percent had normal contractility and none had a ventricular aneurysm; the severity of coronary disease and ventricular dysfunction did not differ from the severity in patients with S-T depression. Thus, in patients without prior myocardial infarction, the cause of the development of S-T elevation or S-T depression during exercise does not appear to be related to the severity of the coronary lesions, ventricular function or wall abnormalities at rest. In patients with prior myocardial infarction, exercise-induced S-T elevation appears to be a marker of depressed left ventricular function.

Cardiac arrest complicating acute myocardial infarction: predictability and prognosis.

Eleven percent of 905 consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted to the coronary care unit at Duke University Medical Center experienced cardiac arrest. Subgroups of patients at high and low risk for cardiac arrest were identified. Cardiac arrest was experienced by 17 percent of patients with signs of heart failure on admission but by only 3 percent of patients without diabetes mellitus, prior myocardial infarction or heart failure by history or on admission. Only 59 percent of patients with cardiac arrest survived hospitalization compared with 88 percent of those without cardiac arrest. Long-term survival for the 765 hospital survivors was significantly greater in the group without than in the group with arrest at each yearly interval from 1 through 5 years; the 2 year survival rate was 50 and 77 percent, respectively, in these two groups. Many of the deaths among the hospital survivors occurred in patients with signs of heart failure during hospitalization. Among 668 hospital survivors who had mild or no heart failure during hospitalization, cardiac arrest continued to be a significant predictor of mortality. The mode of death among hospital survivors did not differ in the groups with and without cardiac arrest; for example, the incidence rate of sudden death in the two groups was 44 and 37 per cent, respectively. In light of recent reports suggesting that the prophylactic use of antiarrhythmic agents can virtually eliminate virtually fibrillation during the hospital phase of acute myocardial infarction, we contend that such use may substantially reduce both long-term and hospital mortality after acute myocardial infarction.

Natural history of patients with single-vessel disease suitable for percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty.

To permit comparison of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) with conventional therapy, the clinical outcome was established in patients who would have been suitable candidates for PTCA but who presented before the technique was available. Coronary angiograms were reviewed of patients who met the following criteria: single-vessel disease with proximal subtotal coronary stenosis, chest pain of at least class II, and cardiac catheterization before 1981. Angiograms were evaluated according to established criteria for PTCA by an experienced angiographer. One hundred ten patients (2.1% of the patient population) were judged suitable for PTCA. Clinical and catheterization findings closely resembled those of patients in the national PTCA registry. Five years after catheterization, 97% of PTCA candidates treated medically were alive and 85% had not had myocardial infarction. Forty-six patients had coronary artery bypass surgery within 6 months of catheterization and 10 other patients had subsequent surgery. Five years after surgery, 91% were alive and 87% had not had myocardial infarction. At 6 months of follow-up, 78% of all patients had improved at least 1 functional class, and 86% of all patients working before catheterization were still employed. Functional capacity was well maintained during long-term follow-up (median 6.5 years, range 1.4 to 12.2). These data indicate that PTCA candidates have an excellent prognosis for survival, a low risk of infarction, and well-maintained functional capacity when revascularization is reserved for those with inadequate control of symptoms by medical therapy.

An improving prognosis over time in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease.

The national mortality rate from coronary heart disease has decreased during the past decade, for reasons that are not yet clear. The mortality rate and the total number of cardiovascular events both decreased during the last 10 years in 1,911 medically treated patients with significant coronary artery disease. This decrease cannot be explained by less sick patients being referred for evaluation. This study suggests that at least part of the decrease in coronary heart disease mortality observed nationally is occurring in patients with established coronary disease.

Prognostic importance of anginal symptoms in angiographically defined coronary artery disease.

To evaluate the prognostic importance of anginal symptoms, 44 patients with angiographically defined coronary artery disease and no anginal symptoms at time of cardiac catheterization were selected from the Duke Harvard Collaborative Data Bank. They were "matched" with 127 symptomatic patients in the Data Bank who had similar coronary anatomy and ventricular function. Follow-up data indicated that the patients without anginal symptoms had a significantly better prognosis over a 7 year period than did those with symptoms: Annual mortality in the asymptomatic group was 2.7 percent compared with 5.4 percent in the group with angina (P 0.05). Although the patient population was a highly selective one and the matching categories were relatively broad, these results suggest that the presence of anginal symptoms may be an important independent correlate of prognosis in patients with coronary artery disease. The absence of angina did not preclude the presence of multivessel disease and did not necessarily imply a benign prognosis, because the yearly mortality rate was nearly 5 percent in the subgroup of asymptomatic patients with three vessel disease.

Nonfatal myocardial infarction in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease.

The purpose of this study was to identify patient characteristics associated with nonfatal myocardial infarction as the first event after cardiac catheterization in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease. Multiple logistic risk analysis of 81 baseline characteristics in 354 patients who died or had nonfatal infarction identified 10 characteristics (5 clinical and 5 cardiac catheterization variables) as independently discriminating between the two events. Left ventricular function, specific coronary anatomy, previous myocardial infarction and age were the most important discriminators. Poor left ventricular function and left main coronary stenosis were associated with death. Subtotal left anterior descending and right coronary arterial stenosis, normal hemodynamics, absence of previous infarction and young age were associated with nonfatal infarction. Thus, in any subset of patients who have a uniform risk of ischemic events (nonfatal infarction or death), nonfatal infarction is most likely to occur in those who are young, have had no previous infarction, have subtotal left anterior descending and right coronary arterial stenosis and normal hemodynamics.

Prognostic significance of precordial ST-segment depression during inferior acute myocardial infarction.

To study the mechanism and prognostic importance of precordial ST-segment depression during inferior acute myocardial infarction, 162 patients admitted during 1969 through 1982 were identified. Patients with ST depression in leads V1, V2 and V3 had significantly larger infarctions as assessed by a QRS scoring system. Hospital mortality was 4% (3 of 75) among patients without ST depression, and 13% (11 of 87) in patients with ST depression. The relation between the amount of ST depression and hospital mortality was significant (p less than 0.001 by logistic regression), and remained significant (p less than 0.003) after adjusting for other potentially prognostic factors. Among patients discharged from the hospital, the 5-year survival was 92% in those without precordial ST depression and 80% in those with precordial ST depression (p = 0.058 by the Cox model). Precordial ST-segment depression on the admission electrocardiogram during an inferior acute myocardial infarction indicates a larger infarction, predicts a higher hospital mortality and suggests a worse long-term prognosis after discharge.

Prognostic indicators from radionuclide angiography in medically treated patients with coronary artery disease.

The purpose of this investigation was to determine which variables obtained when performing radionuclide angiography predict subsequent survival or total events (cardiovascular death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) in stable patients with symptomatic coronary artery disease (CAD). Univariable and multivariable analyses of 6 variables, including ejection fraction (EF) at rest and exercise, change in EF with exercise, development of ischemic chest pain or electrocardiographic changes, left ventricular (LV) wall motion abnormalities and exercise time were examined in 386 patients followed up to 4.5 years. Univariate analyses revealed that the exercise EF was the variable most closely associated with future events (p less than 0.01), followed by EF at rest, wall motion abnormalities and exercise time. Multivariable analyses revealed that once the exercise EF was known, no other radionuclide variables contributed independent information about the likelihood of future events. Multivariable analyses also revealed that the exercise EF describes much of the prognostic information of coronary anatomy. Our findings suggest that the radionuclide angiogram is useful in predicting future events in patients with stable CAD, although examination in conjunction with other clinical descriptors will be necessary to further quantify this contribution.

Assessment of the use of the age- and sex-specific United States population as a control group for analysis of survival in coronary artery disease.

The use of the age- and sex-specific U.S. population as a control group for analysis of survival in coronary artery disease was assessed. Population-based survival rates were calculated for nonsurgically treated patients evaluated for coronary artery disease at Duke University Medical Center. Survival of the overall group of medically treated patients with significant coronary artery disease was lower than the corresponding age- and sex-specific U.S. population rates. However, survival of patients with significant disease who had normal left ventricular contraction and stable chest pain was similar to the age- and sex-specific population survival rates. Both the observed survival and the population-based survival estimates for patients with normal left ventricular contraction and stable pain were lower than the survival of patients with normal coronary arteriograms. Even after deaths from ischemic heart disease are eliminated from the population rates, survival of patients with normal coronary arteries exceeded the age-and sex-specific population survival. Because of biases inherent in the selection of patients for cardiac catheterization and the presence of other serious diseases in persons in the general population is not an adequate control group for rigorous analysis of the effect of therapy in coronary artery disease.

"Left main equivalent" coronary artery disease: its clinical presentation and prognostic significance with nonsurgical therapy.

The clinical characteristics and nonsurgical prognosis of 55 patients with "left main (LM) equivalent" coronary artery disease (CAD) were evaluated and defined as: (1) greater than or equal to 75% diameter reduction of the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) before the takeoff of any large septal perforator or anterolateral (diagonal) branches; (2) greater than or equal to 75% diameter reduction of the left circumflex artery (LC) before the takeoff of any large marginal branch; and (3) absence of greater than or equal to 50% stenosis of the LM coronary artery. Compared with nonsurgically treated patients with greater than or equal to 75% stenosis of the LM artery, patients with LM equivalent CAD had a shorter duration of symptoms (median of 51 months vs 66 months) and more often had a Q wave on the electrocardiogram (60 vs 39%). Survival in patients with LM equivalent CAD (78% at 1 year and 55% at 5 years) was better than that in patients with LM disease with nonsurgical therapy (65% at 1 year and 40% at 5 years) (p = 0.02), although the rate of freedom from cardiovascular events was not significantly different. Compared with other nonsurgically treated patients with 2- or 3-vessel CAD involving the LAD and LC (28 and 42%, respectively, with progressive angina), patients with LM equivalent CAD had more severe anginal symptoms (55% with progressive angina) and a longer duration of symptoms (medians of 20 months in 2-vessel CAD, 36 months in 3-vessel CAD and 51 months in LM equivalent CAD).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Prognostic implications of angiographically normal and insignificantly narrowed coronary arteries.

The clinical presentation and prognosis of 1,977 consecutive patients with normal coronary arteries or "insignificant" coronary artery disease (CAD) (no major epicardial artery with 75% or more luminal diameter narrowing) were examined. Compared with patients with significant CAD, these patients had a lower frequency of traditional cardiac risk factors and abnormalities on the rest and exercise electrocardiogram. Cardiac survival was 99% at 5 years of follow-up and 98% at 10 years for patients with normal or insignificantly narrowed coronary arteries. Patients with normal coronary arteries differed from those with insignificant CAD in their myocardial infarction free survival rate: 99% at 5 years and 98% at 10 years for patients with normal coronary arteries, compared with 97% at 5 years and 90% at 10 years for patients with insignificant CAD. A strong relation occurred between the amount of insignificant CAD and follow-up cardiac events (chi 2 = 21.5, p less than 0.0001). Cardiac risk factors were statistically related to the risk of follow-up cardiovascular events when considered alone (chi 2 = 4.93, p = 0.026), but this relation lost significance after adjusting for the effect of coronary anatomy. Patients in both groups continued to have cardiac symptoms that resulted in frequent hospitalizations, medication use and job disability. Almost 50% in any given year of follow-up could not perform activities of high metabolic equivalent requirement and 70% had continuing symptoms of chest discomfort. Although these patients are at low risk of death, many remain functionally impaired for years.

Prognostic implications of ventricular arrhythmias during 24 hour ambulatory monitoring in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization for coronary artery disease.

The prognostic importance of ventricular arrhythmias detected during 24 hour ambulatory monitoring was evaluated in 395 patients with and 260 patients without significant coronary artery disease. Ventricular arrhythmias were found to be strongly related to abnormal left ventricular function. A modification of the Lown grading system (ventricular arrhythmia score) was the most useful scheme for classifying ventricular arrhythmias according to prognostic importance. When only noninvasive characteristics were considered, the score contributed independent prognostic information, and the complexity of ventricular arrhythmias as measured by this score was inversely related to survival. However, when invasive measurements were included, the ventricular arrhythmia score did not contribute independent prognostic information. Furthermore, ejection fraction was more useful than the ventricular arrhythmia score in identifying patients at high risk of sudden death.