A well-oxygenated eastern tropical Pacific during the warm Miocene.

The oxygen content of the oceans is susceptible to climate change and has declined in recent decades1, with the largest effect in oxygen-deficient zones (ODZs)2, that is, mid-depth ocean regions with oxygen concentrations <5 µmol kg-1 (ref. 3). Earth-system-model simulations of climate warming predict that ODZs will expand until at least 2100. The response on timescales of hundreds to thousands of years, however, remains uncertain3-5. Here we investigate changes in the response of ocean oxygenation during the warmer-than-present Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO; 17.0-14.8 million years ago (Ma)). Our planktic foraminifera I/Ca and δ15N data, palaeoceanographic proxies sensitive to ODZ extent and intensity, indicate that dissolved-oxygen concentrations in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP) exceeded 100 µmol kg-1 during the MCO. Paired Mg/Ca-derived temperature data suggest that an ODZ developed in response to an increased west-to-east temperature gradient and shoaling of the ETP thermocline. Our records align with model simulations of data from recent decades to centuries6,7, suggesting that weaker equatorial Pacific trade winds during warm periods may lead to decreased upwelling in the ETP, causing equatorial productivity and subsurface oxygen demand to be less concentrated in the east. These findings shed light on how warm-climate states such as during the MCO may affect ocean oxygenation. If the MCO is considered as a possible analogue for future warming, our findings seem to support models suggesting that the recent deoxygenation trend and expansion of the ETP ODZ may eventually reverse3,4.

Warm pool ocean heat content regulates ocean-continent moisture transport.

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) exerts a dominant role in global climate by releasing huge amounts of water vapour and latent heat to the atmosphere and modulating upper ocean heat content (OHC), which has been implicated in modern climate change1. The long-term variations of IPWP OHC and their effect on monsoonal hydroclimate are, however, not fully explored. Here, by combining geochemical proxies and transient climate simulations, we show that changes of IPWP upper (0-200 m) OHC over the past 360,000 years exhibit dominant precession and weaker obliquity cycles and follow changes in meridional insolation gradients, and that only 30%-40% of the deglacial increases are related to changes in ice volume. On the precessional band, higher upper OHC correlates with oxygen isotope enrichments in IPWP surface water and concomitant depletion in East Asian precipitation as recorded in Chinese speleothems. Using an isotope-enabled air-sea coupled model, we suggest that on precessional timescales, variations in IPWP upper OHC, more than surface temperature, act to amplify the ocean-continent hydrological cycle via the convergence of moisture and latent heat. From an energetic viewpoint, the coupling of upper OHC and monsoon variations, both coordinated by insolation changes on orbital timescales, is critical for regulating the global hydroclimate.

Cyclic evolution of phytoplankton forced by changes in tropical seasonality.

Although the role of Earth's orbital variations in driving global climate cycles has long been recognized, their effect on evolution is hitherto unknown. The fossil remains of coccolithophores, a key calcifying phytoplankton group, enable a detailed assessment of the effect of cyclic orbital-scale climate changes on evolution because of their abundance in marine sediments and the preservation of their morphological adaptation to the changing environment1,2. Evolutionary genetic analyses have linked broad changes in Pleistocene fossil coccolith morphology to species radiation events3. Here, using high-resolution coccolith data, we show that during the last 2.8 million years the morphological evolution of coccolithophores was forced by Earth's orbital eccentricity with rhythms of around 100,000 years and 405,000 years-a distinct spectral signature to that of coeval global climate cycles4. Simulations with an Earth System Model5 coupled with an ocean biogeochemical model6 show a strong eccentricity modulation of the seasonal cycle, which we suggest directly affects the diversity of ecological niches that occur over the annual cycle in the tropical ocean. Reduced seasonality in surface ocean conditions favours species with mid-size coccoliths, increasing coccolith carbonate export and burial; whereas enhanced seasonality favours a larger range of coccolith sizes and reduced carbonate export. We posit that eccentricity pacing of phytoplankton evolution contributed to the strong 405,000-year cyclicity that is seen in global carbon cycle records.

Seasonal origin of the thermal maxima at the Holocene and the last interglacial.

Proxy reconstructions from marine sediment cores indicate peak temperatures in the first half of the last and current interglacial periods (the thermal maxima of the Holocene epoch, 10,000 to 6,000 years ago, and the last interglacial period, 128,000 to 123,000 years ago) that arguably exceed modern warmth1-3. By contrast, climate models simulate monotonic warming throughout both periods4-7. This substantial model-data discrepancy undermines confidence in both proxy reconstructions and climate models, and inhibits a mechanistic understanding of recent climate change. Here we show that previous global reconstructions of temperature in the Holocene1-3 and the last interglacial period8 reflect the evolution of seasonal, rather than annual, temperatures and we develop a method of transforming them to mean annual temperatures. We further demonstrate that global mean annual sea surface temperatures have been steadily increasing since the start of the Holocene (about 12,000 years ago), first in response to retreating ice sheets (12 to 6.5 thousand years ago), and then as a result of rising greenhouse gas concentrations (0.25 ± 0.21 degrees Celsius over the past 6,500 years or so). However, mean annual temperatures during the last interglacial period were stable and warmer than estimates of temperatures during the Holocene, and we attribute this to the near-constant greenhouse gas levels and the reduced extent of ice sheets. We therefore argue that the climate of the Holocene differed from that of the last interglacial period in two ways: first, larger remnant glacial ice sheets acted to cool the early Holocene, and second, rising greenhouse gas levels in the late Holocene warmed the planet. Furthermore, our reconstructions demonstrate that the modern global temperature has exceeded annual levels over the past 12,000 years and probably approaches the warmth of the last interglacial period (128,000 to 115,000 years ago).

A low climate threshold for south Greenland Ice Sheet demise during the Late Pleistocene.

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate over the recent decades. Models suggest a possible temperature threshold between 0.8 and 3.2 °C, beyond which GIS decline becomes irreversible. The duration of warmth above a given threshold is also a critical determinant for GIS survival, underlining the role of ocean warming, as its inertia prolongs warmth and triggers longer-term feedbacks. The exact point at which these feedbacks are triggered remains equivocal. Late Pleistocene interglacials provide potential case examples for constraining the past response of the GIS to a range of climate states, including conditions warmer than present. However, little is known about the magnitude and duration of warming near Greenland during these periods. Using high-resolution multiproxy surface ocean climate records off southern Greenland, we show that the previous 4 interglacials over the last ∼450 ka all reached warmer than present climate conditions and exceeded the modeled temperature threshold for GIS collapse but by different magnitudes and durations. Complete deglaciation of the southern GIS in Marine Isotope Stage 11c (MIS 11c; 394.7 to 424.2 ka) occurred under climates only slightly warmer than present (∼0.5 ± 1.6 °C), placing the temperature threshold for major GIS retreat in the lower end of model estimates and within projections for this century.

Capturing the global signature of surface ocean acidification during the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Geologically abrupt carbon perturbations such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, approx. 56 Ma) are the closest geological points of comparison to current anthropogenic carbon emissions. Associated with the rapid carbon release during this event are profound environmental changes in the oceans including warming, deoxygenation and acidification. To evaluate the global extent of surface ocean acidification during the PETM, we present a compilation of new and published surface ocean carbonate chemistry and pH reconstructions from various palaeoceanographic settings. We use boron to calcium ratios (B/Ca) and boron isotopes (δ11B) in surface- and thermocline-dwelling planktonic foraminifera to reconstruct ocean carbonate chemistry and pH. Our records exhibit a B/Ca reduction of 30-40% and a δ11B decline of 1.0-1.2‰ coeval with the carbon isotope excursion. The tight coupling between boron proxies and carbon isotope records is consistent with the interpretation that oceanic absorption of the carbon released at the onset of the PETM resulted in widespread surface ocean acidification. The remarkable similarity among records from different ocean regions suggests that the degree of ocean carbonate change was globally near uniform. We attribute the global extent of surface ocean acidification to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels during the main phase of the PETM.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Hyperthermals: rapid and extreme global warming in our geological past'.

The Holocene temperature conundrum.

A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198-1201]. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models.

2,000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific warm pool.

Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions suggest that the late twentieth century was warmer than any other time during the past 500 years and possibly any time during the past 1,300 years (refs 1, 2). These temperature reconstructions are based largely on terrestrial records from extra-tropical or high-elevation sites; however, global average surface temperature changes closely follow those of the global tropics, which are 75% ocean. In particular, the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) represents a major heat reservoir that both influences global atmospheric circulation and responds to remote northern high-latitude forcings. Here we present a decadally resolved continuous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction from the IPWP that spans the past two millennia and overlaps the instrumental record, enabling both a direct comparison of proxy data to the instrumental record and an evaluation of past changes in the context of twentieth century trends. Our record from the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, exhibits trends that are similar to a recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Reconstructed SST was, however, within error of modern values from about ad 1000 to ad 1250, towards the end of the Medieval Warm Period. SSTs during the Little Ice Age (approximately ad 1550-1850) were variable, and approximately 0.5 to 1 degrees C colder than modern values during the coldest intervals. A companion reconstruction of delta(18)O of sea water-a sea surface salinity and hydrology indicator-indicates a tight coupling with the East Asian monsoon system and remote control of IPWP hydrology on centennial-millennial timescales, rather than a dominant influence from local SST variation.

Global and regional temperature change over the past 4.5 million years.

Much of our understanding of Cenozoic climate is based on the record of δ18O measured in benthic foraminifera. However, this measurement reflects a combined signal of global temperature and sea level, thus preventing a clear understanding of the interactions and feedbacks of the climate system in causing global temperature change. Our new reconstruction of temperature change over the past 4.5 million years includes two phases of long-term cooling, with the second phase of accelerated cooling during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.5 to 0.9 million years ago) being accompanied by a transition from dominant 41,000-year low-amplitude periodicity to dominant 100,000-year high-amplitude periodicity. Changes in the rates of long-term cooling and variability are consistent with changes in the carbon cycle driven initially by geologic processes, followed by additional changes in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle.

Accelerated mafic weathering in Southeast Asia linked to late Neogene cooling.

Arc-continent collision in Southeast Asia during the Neogene may have driven global cooling through chemical weathering of freshly exposed ophiolites resulting in atmospheric CO2 removal. Yet, little is known about the cause-and-effect relationships between erosion and the long-term evolution of tectonics and climate in this region. Here, we present an 8-million-year record of seawater chemistry and sediment provenance from the eastern Indian Ocean, near the outflow of Indonesian Throughflow waters. Using geochemical analyses of foraminiferal shells and grain size-specific detrital fractions, we show that erosion and chemical weathering of ophiolitic rocks markedly increased after 4 million years (Ma), coincident with widespread island emergence and gradual strengthening of Pacific zonal sea-surface temperature gradients. Together with supportive evidence for enhanced mafic weathering at that time from re-analysis of the seawater 87Sr/86Sr curve, this finding suggests that island uplift and hydroclimate change in the western Pacific contributed to maintaining high atmospheric CO2 consumption throughout the late Neogene.

North Atlantic cooling triggered a zonal mode over the Indian Ocean during Heinrich Stadial 1.

Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are thought to affect tropical hydroclimate through adjustment of the latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) involves the largest AMOC reduction in recent geological time; however, over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO), proxy records suggest zonal anomalies featuring intense, widespread drought in tropical East Africa versus generally wet but heterogeneous conditions in the Maritime Continent. Here, we synthesize proxy data and an isotope-enabled transient deglacial simulation and show that the southward ITCZ shift over the eastern IO during HS1 strengthens IO Walker circulation, triggering an east-west precipitation dipole across the basin. This dipole reverses the zonal precipitation anomalies caused by the exposed Sunda and Sahul shelves due to glacial lower sea level. Our study illustrates how zonal modes of atmosphere-ocean circulation can amplify or reverse global climate anomalies, highlighting their importance for future climate change.

Stable sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool over the past 1.75 million years.

About 850,000 years ago, the period of the glacial cycles changed from 41,000 to 100,000 years. This mid-Pleistocene climate transition has been attributed to global cooling, possibly caused by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, evidence for such cooling is currently restricted to the cool upwelling regions in the eastern equatorial oceans, although the tropical warm pools on the western side of the ocean basins are particularly sensitive to changes in radiative forcing. Here we present high-resolution records of sea surface temperatures spanning the past 1.75 million years, obtained from oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios in planktonic foraminifera from the western Pacific warm pool. In contrast with the eastern equatorial regions, sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool are relatively stable throughout the Pleistocene epoch, implying little long-term change in the tropical net radiation budget. Our results challenge the hypothesis of a gradual decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a dominant trigger of the longer glacial cycles since 850,000 years ago. Instead, we infer that the temperature contrast across the equatorial Pacific Ocean increased, which might have had a significant influence on the mid-Pleistocene climate transition.

Remote and local drivers of Pleistocene South Asian summer monsoon precipitation: A test for future predictions.

South Asian precipitation amount and extreme variability are predicted to increase due to thermodynamic effects of increased 21st-century greenhouse gases, accompanied by an increased supply of moisture from the southern hemisphere Indian Ocean. We reconstructed South Asian summer monsoon precipitation and runoff into the Bay of Bengal to assess the extent to which these factors also operated in the Pleistocene, a time of large-scale natural changes in carbon dioxide and ice volume. South Asian precipitation and runoff are strongly coherent with, and lag, atmospheric carbon dioxide changes at Earth's orbital eccentricity, obliquity, and precession bands and are closely tied to cross-equatorial wind strength at the precession band. We find that the projected monsoon response to ongoing, rapid high-latitude ice melt and rising carbon dioxide levels is fully consistent with dynamics of the past 0.9 million years.

The evolutionary inheritance of elemental stoichiometry in marine phytoplankton.

Phytoplankton is a nineteenth century ecological construct for a biologically diverse group of pelagic photoautotrophs that share common metabolic functions but not evolutionary histories. In contrast to terrestrial plants, a major schism occurred in the evolution of the eukaryotic phytoplankton that gave rise to two major plastid superfamilies. The green superfamily appropriated chlorophyll b, whereas the red superfamily uses chlorophyll c as an accessory photosynthetic pigment. Fossil evidence suggests that the green superfamily dominated Palaeozoic oceans. However, after the end-Permian extinction, members of the red superfamily rose to ecological prominence. The processes responsible for this shift are obscure. Here we present an analysis of major nutrients and trace elements in 15 species of marine phytoplankton from the two superfamilies. Our results indicate that there are systematic phylogenetic differences in the two plastid types where macronutrient (carbon:nitrogen:phosphorus) stoichiometries primarily reflect ancestral pre-symbiotic host cell phenotypes, but trace element composition reflects differences in the acquired plastids. The compositional differences between the two plastid superfamilies suggest that changes in ocean redox state strongly influenced the evolution and selection of eukaryotic phytoplankton since the Proterozoic era.

Pacific warm pool subsurface heat sequestration modulated Walker circulation and ENSO activity during the Holocene.

Dynamics driving the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over longer-than-interannual time scales are poorly understood. Here, we compile thermocline temperature records of the Indo-Pacific warm pool over the past 25,000 years, which reveal a major warming in the Early Holocene and a secondary warming in the Middle Holocene. We suggest that the first thermocline warming corresponds to heat transport of southern Pacific shallow overturning circulation driven by June (austral winter) insolation maximum. The second thermocline warming follows equatorial September insolation maximum, which may have caused a steeper west-east upper-ocean thermal gradient and an intensified Walker circulation in the equatorial Pacific. We propose that the warm pool thermocline warming ultimately reduced the interannual ENSO activity in the Early to Middle Holocene. Thus, a substantially increased oceanic heat content of the warm pool, acting as a negative feedback for ENSO in the past, may play its role in the ongoing global warming.

Interglacial instability of North Atlantic Deep Water ventilation.

Disrupting North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) ventilation is a key concern in climate projections. We use (sub)centennially resolved bottom water δ13C records that span the interglacials of the last 0.5 million years to assess the frequency of and the climatic backgrounds capable of triggering large NADW reductions. Episodes of reduced NADW in the deep Atlantic, similar in magnitude to glacial events, have been relatively common and occasionally long-lasting features of interglacials. NADW reductions were triggered across the range of recent interglacial climate backgrounds, which demonstrates that catastrophic freshwater outburst floods were not a prerequisite for large perturbations. Our results argue that large NADW disruptions are more easily achieved than previously appreciated and that they occurred in past climate conditions similar to those we may soon face.

Asynchronous Antarctic and Greenland ice-volume contributions to the last interglacial sea-level highstand.

The last interglacial (LIG; ~130 to ~118 thousand years ago, ka) was the last time global sea level rose well above the present level. Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) contributions were insufficient to explain the highstand, so that substantial Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) reduction is implied. However, the nature and drivers of GrIS and AIS reductions remain enigmatic, even though they may be critical for understanding future sea-level rise. Here we complement existing records with new data, and reveal that the LIG contained an AIS-derived highstand from ~129.5 to ~125 ka, a lowstand centred on 125-124 ka, and joint AIS + GrIS contributions from ~123.5 to ~118 ka. Moreover, a dual substructure within the first highstand suggests temporal variability in the AIS contributions. Implied rates of sea-level rise are high (up to several meters per century; m c-1), and lend credibility to high rates inferred by ice modelling under certain ice-shelf instability parameterisations.

Paleoceanography. Antarctic role in Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Earth's climate underwent a major transition from the warmth of the late Pliocene, when global surface temperatures were ~2° to 3°C higher than today, to extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG) ~2.73 million years ago (Ma). We show that North Pacific deep waters were substantially colder (4°C) and probably fresher than the North Atlantic Deep Water before the intensification of NHG. At ~2.73 Ma, the Atlantic-Pacific temperature gradient was reduced to <1°C, suggesting the initiation of stronger heat transfer from the North Atlantic to the deep Pacific. We posit that increased glaciation of Antarctica, deduced from the 21 ± 10-meter sea-level fall from 3.15 to 2.75 Ma, and the development of a strong polar halocline fundamentally altered deep ocean circulation, which enhanced interhemispheric heat and salt transport, thereby contributing to NHG.