Stroke in Sierra Leone. the stroke risk factors for people with HIV: A prospective case-control study.

BACKGROUND: HIV infection rates are relatively low in Sierra Leone and in West Africa but the contribution of HIV to the risk factors for stroke and outcomes is unknown. In this study, we examined stroke types, presentation, risk factors and outcome in HIV stroke patients compared with controls. METHODS: We used data from the Stroke in Sierra Leone Study at 2 tertiary hospitals in Freetown, Sierra Leone. A case control design was used to compare stroke type, presentation, risk factors and outcome in sero-positive HIV patients with HIV negative stroke controls. Controls were matched for age and gender and a 1:4 ratio cases to controls was used to optimize power. Analysis was performed using the Pearson x2 for categorical variable, Paired-T test and Mann-Whitney U test for continuous variables. A p-value of less than 0.05 was taken as the level of statistical significance. RESULTS: Of 511 (51.8%) stroke patients tested for HIV, 36 (7.1%) were positive. Univariate unmatched analysis showed a stroke mean age of 49 years in HIV-positive versus 58 years in HIV-negative population (p = <0.001). In the case-control group, ischaemic stroke is the major type reported in both populations, HIV-negative population: 77 (53.5%) versus HIV-positive: 25 (69.4%) (p = 0.084). Hypertension is the most prevalent risk factor in both groups, HIV-positive: 23 (63.9%) versus HIV-negative: 409 (86.1%) (p = 0.001). Lower CD4+ count is associated in-hospital mortality (p = <0.001). CONCLUSION: These findings support the current call for timely management of stroke and HIV through integrated care.

Stroke Outcomes in Women: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data are available on sex-related disparities in long-term outcomes after stroke. We estimated sex differences in various stroke long-term outcomes among survivors after stroke in a prospective 25-year follow-up study. METHODS: Individuals recruited to the South London Stroke Register, an ongoing multi-ethnic urban-based population stroke register, from 1995 onward were included in the analyses (n=6687). The outcomes were death, subsequent stroke, activity of daily living, instrumental activity of daily living, cognitive impairment, depression, anxiety, and health-related quality of life. Kaplan-Meier curves were generated for mortality, stroke recurrence, and recurrence-free survival by sex and Cox proportional hazards model used to model sex differences up to 25 years. Generalized estimating equation were used to model sex differences in risk of self-reported stroke outcomes over 10 years poststroke outcomes, adjusting for age, preexisting activity of daily living, case-mix, stroke subtypes, and other potential confounding risk factors. RESULTS: There were 49% women (mean age, 72 years; SD, 15.6) and 51% men (mean age, 67 years; SD, 14.3) in 6687 participants. Compared with men, women had 9% (95% CI, 3%-15%) lower covariate-adjusted risk of death and 6% (0%-13%) lower risk of stroke recurrence or death. Generally, women had significantly poorer outcomes in activity of daily living and anxiety than men, and the sex differences persisted to up to 5 years after stroke. Women also had poorer health-related quality of life in physical (ß=-2.06 [95% CI, -3.01 to -1.10]) and mental domains (ß=-1.48 [95% CI, -2.44 to -0.52]). Although not significant, there was a suggestive trend for poorer outcomes in cognitive impairment and depression in women. No significant difference in stroke recurrence were found between men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Female patients with stroke tended to have better covariate-adjusted survival but poorer outcomes among survivors than male patients, with deficits persisting to up to 5 years poststroke.

Risk prediction of 30-day mortality after stroke using machine learning: a nationwide registry-based cohort study.

BACKGROUNDS: We aimed to develop and validate machine learning (ML) models for 30-day stroke mortality for mortality risk stratification and as benchmarking models for quality improvement in stroke care. METHODS: Data from the UK Sentinel Stroke National Audit Program between 2013 to 2019 were used. Models were developed using XGBoost, Logistic Regression (LR), LR with elastic net with/without interaction terms using 80% randomly selected admissions from 2013 to 2018, validated on the 20% remaining admissions, and temporally validated on 2019 admissions. The models were developed with 30 variables. A reference model was developed using LR and 4 variables. Performances of all models was evaluated in terms of discrimination, calibration, reclassification, Brier scores and Decision-curves. RESULTS: In total, 488,497 stroke patients with a 12.3% 30-day mortality rate were included in the analysis. In 2019 temporal validation set, XGBoost model obtained the lowest Brier score (0.069 (95% CI: 0.068-0.071)) and the highest area under the ROC curve (AUC) (0.895 (95% CI: 0.891-0.900)) which outperformed LR reference model by 0.04 AUC (p < 0.001) and LR with elastic net and interaction term model by 0.003 AUC (p < 0.001). All models were perfectly calibrated for low (< 5%) and moderate risk groups (5-15%) and ≈1% underestimation for high-risk groups (> 15%). The XGBoost model reclassified 1648 (8.1%) low-risk cases by the LR reference model as being moderate or high-risk and gained the most net benefit in decision curve analysis. CONCLUSIONS: All models with 30 variables are potentially useful as benchmarking models in stroke-care quality improvement with ML slightly outperforming others.

Stroke Care in the United Kingdom During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has potentially caused indirect harm to patients with other conditions via reduced access to health care services. We aimed to describe the impact of the initial wave of the pandemic on admissions, care quality, and outcomes in patients with acute stroke in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Registry-based cohort study of patients with acute stroke admitted to hospital in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland between October 1, 2019, and April 30, 2020, and equivalent periods in the 3 prior years. RESULTS: One hundred fourteen hospitals provided data for a study cohort of 184 017 patients. During the lockdown period (March 23 to April 30), there was a 12% reduction (6923 versus 7902) in the number of admissions compared with the same period in the 3 previous years. Admissions fell more for ischemic than hemorrhagic stroke, for older patients, and for patients with less severe strokes. Quality of care was preserved for all measures and in some domains improved during lockdown (direct access to stroke unit care, 1-hour brain imaging, and swallow screening). Although there was no change in the proportion of patients discharged with good outcome (modified Rankin Scale score, ≤2; 48% versus 48%), 7-day inpatient case fatality increased from 6.9% to 9.4% (P<0.001) and was 22.0% in patients with confirmed or suspected COVID-19 (adjusted rate ratio, 1.41 [1.11-1.80]). CONCLUSIONS: Assuming that the true incidence of acute stroke did not change markedly during the pandemic, hospital avoidance may have created a cohort of untreated stroke patients at risk of poorer outcomes or recurrent events. Unanticipated improvements in stroke care quality should be used as an opportunity for quality improvement and to learn about how to develop resilient health care systems.

Long-Term Trends in Stroke Survivors Discharged to Care Homes: The South London Stroke Register.

Background and Purpose- Care homes provide care to many stroke survivors, yet little is known about changes in care home use over time. We aim to determine trends in discharge to care homes, to explore the characteristics of stroke survivors over time (1995-2018), and to identify the associations between these characteristics and discharge to care homes poststroke. Methods- Using data from the South London Stroke Register between 1995 and 2018, we estimated the proportions discharged to care homes and their characteristics over time, assessed by tests for trends. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to assess the associations between their characteristics and discharge destination. Results- Of 4172 stroke survivors, 484 (12%) were discharged to care homes. This proportion has decreased from 24% in 1995 to 2000 to 5% in 2013 to 2018. The mean age of those discharged to care homes has increased over time, from 73 to 75 (P<0.001). Among stroke survivors discharged to a care home, the proportion with a prestroke Barthel Index <15 has also increased over time from 7% to 21% (P=0.027), while the proportion with a 7-day poststroke Barthel Index <15 remains largely unchanged over time (93% in 1995-2000, 90% in 2013-2018). The characteristics most strongly associated with discharge to care homes were (odds ratio [95% CI]) age (1.05 [1.04-1.07] per year), stroke subtype (hemorrhagic; 0.64 [0.43-0.95]), stroke severity (Glasgow Coma Scale score, <13; 1.67 [1.19-2.35]), failed swallow test at admission (1.65 [1.20-2.25]), 7-day poststroke Barthel Index <15 (3.58 [2.20-6.03]), and a longer hospital stay (1.02 [1.02-1.03] per day). Conclusions- Over >20 years, there has been an 80% reduction in the proportion of stroke survivors discharged to care homes, influenced by changes in the demographics, disability, and stroke care in the underlying stroke population. In those moving to care homes, the level of poststroke disability remains high, requiring continued attention and investment.

Trends in prevalence of acute stroke impairments: A population-based cohort study using the South London Stroke Register.

BACKGROUND: Acute stroke impairments often result in poor long-term outcome for stroke survivors. The aim of this study was to estimate the trends over time in the prevalence of these acute stroke impairments. METHODS AND FINDINGS: All first-ever stroke patients recorded in the South London Stroke Register (SLSR) between 2001 and 2018 were included in this cohort study. Multivariable Poisson regression models with robust error variance were used to estimate the adjusted prevalence of 8 acute impairments, across six 3-year time cohorts. Prevalence ratios comparing impairments over time were also calculated, stratified by age, sex, ethnicity, and aetiological classification (Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment [TOAST]). A total of 4,683 patients had a stroke between 2001 and 2018. Mean age was 68.9 years, 48% were female, and 64% were White. After adjustment for demographic factors, pre-stroke risk factors, and stroke subtype, the prevalence of 3 out of the 8 acute impairments declined during the 18-year period, including limb motor deficit (from 77% [95% CI 74%-81%] to 62% [56%-68%], p < 0.001), dysphagia (37% [33%-41%] to 15% [12%-20%], p < 0.001), and urinary incontinence (43% [39%-47%) to 29% [24%-35%], p < 0.001). Declines in limb impairment over time were 2 times greater in men than women (prevalence ratio 0.73 [95% CI 0.64-0.84] and 0.87 [95% CI 0.77-0.98], respectively). Declines also tended to be greater in younger patients. Stratified by TOAST classification, the prevalence of all impairments was high for large artery atherosclerosis (LAA), cardioembolism (CE), and stroke of undetermined aetiology. Conversely, small vessel occlusions (SVOs) had low levels of all impairments except for limb motor impairment and dysarthria. While we have assessed 8 key acute stroke impairments, this study is limited by a focus on physical impairments, although cognitive impairments are equally important to understand. In addition, this is an inner-city cohort, which has unique characteristics compared to other populations. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that stroke patients in the SLSR had a complexity of acute impairments, of which limb motor deficit, dysphagia, and incontinence have declined between 2001 and 2018. These reductions have not been uniform across all patient groups, with women and the older population, in particular, seeing fewer reductions.

Re-engineering the Cypriot healthcare service system.

BACKGROUND: The Cypriot healthcare system has undergone a number of major transformations since the induction of the Republic of Cyprus in the European Union over 10 years ago. Currently Cyprus is undergoing a major reform, namely the introduction of a primary care driven national healthcare system. The aim of the study was to assess the existing state of training, support, quality, guidelines and infrastructure towards a better healthcare system in Cyprus. METHODS: This is a mixed-methods study combining statistical data until October 2016 and workshop discussions delivered in Cyprus in November 2015. We used anonymised data provided: (1a) by the Cyprus Medical Association of all registered medical doctors up to October 2016; (1b); by the Ministry of Health (MoH) Health Monitoring Unit up to October 2016; (2) during a workshop organised with representatives from the Royal College of Physicians, the European Commission and the Health Insurance Organization. RESULTS: The gender ratio of men over women is disproportionate, with over 85% of the medical doctors undertaking their training in Greece, Eastern Europe and neighbouring countries, while the current record does not hold a relevant specialty information for 4 out of 10 doctors. The results show lack of statutory inspection systems, application of revalidation principles or implementation of peer-review clinical services on the island. There are eight proposed recommendations made by the workshop participants towards the transformation of the Cypriot healthcare system and the development of the Cyprus Quality Improvement Institute. These are aimed at addressing gaps in quality of care, adherence to clinical guidelines and implementation of audits, development of doctors' revalidation and peer-review of clinical services, accreditation of service implementation, establishment of a statutory inspection system as well as the set-up of an incentives program as part of the general healthcare system (GHS) of Cyprus. CONCLUSIONS: Current efforts for the implementation of the new GHS in Cyprus call for adequate training and support of the medical workforce, transparent and safer quality of care provision through the implementation of clinical guidelines and capacity-building infrastructure.

The Impact of Pre- and Post-Stroke Statin Use on Stroke Severity and Long-Term Outcomes: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of statins on stroke incidence is well known. However, data on the relationship between pre- and post-stroke statin use, recurrence, and survival outcomes are limited. We aim to investigate the short- and long-term relationships between statin prescription, stroke recurrence, and survival in patients with first-ever ischemic stroke. METHODS: Data were collected from the population-based South London Stroke Register for the years 1995-2015. Patients were assessed at the time of first ever stroke, 3 months, and annually thereafter. Data on vascular risk factors, treatments prescribed, sociodemographic characteristics, stroke subtype, survival, and stroke recurrence were collected. Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to assess the relationship of statin prescriptions pre- and post-stroke on stroke severity, long-term recurrence and survival. RESULTS: Patients prescribed statins both pre- and post-stroke showed a 24% reduction in mortality (adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] 0.76, 0.60-0.97), those who were prescribed statins pre-stroke and then stopped post-stroke showed greater risk of mortality (aHR 1.85, 1.10-3.12) and stroke recurrence (aHR 3.25, 1.35-7.84) compared to those that were not prescribed statins at any time. No associations were observed between pre-stroke statin and severity of the initial stroke overall, though a protective effect against moderate/severe stroke (Glasgow Coma Scale ≤12) was observed in those aged 75+ years (aOR 0.70, 0.52-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: Statins play a significant role in improving the survival rates after a stroke. Adherence to the National Guidelines that promote statin treatment, primary and secondary prevention of stroke should be monitored and a focus for quality improvement programs.

Endovascular thrombectomy in anterior circulation stroke and clinical value of bridging with intravenous thrombolysis.

BACKGROUND: Bridging treatment with intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) before endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in acute ischemic stroke is applied under the assumption of benefits for patients with large vessel occlusion (LVO). However, the benefit of this additional step has not yet been proven. PURPOSE: To compare procedural parameters (procedural time, number of attempts), complications, and clinical outcome in patients receiving EVT vs. patients with bridging treatment. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In this prospective study all patients had acute anterior cerebral circulation occlusion and were treated with EVT. All patients were selected for treatment based on clinical criteria, multimodal computed tomography (CT) imaging. Eighty-four patients were treated with bridging IVT followed by EVT; 62 patients were treated with EVT only. RESULTS: Bridging therapy did not influence endovascular procedure time ( P = 0.71) or number of attempts needed ( P = 0.63). Bleeding from any site was more common in the bridging group (27, 32%) vs. the EVT group (12, 19%) ( P = 0.09). Functional independence modified Rankin Scale after 90 days was slightly higher in the bridging group (44%) vs. the EVT group (42%) ( P = 0.14). Mortality did not differ significantly at 90 days: 17% in the bridging group vs. 21% in EVT alone ( P = 0.57). Both treatment methods showed high recanalization rates: 94% in the bridging group and 89% for EVT alone. CONCLUSION: Bridging treatment in LVO did not show benefits or elevated risks of complications in comparison to EVT only. The bridging group did not show significantly better neurological outcome or significant impact on procedural parameters vs. EVT alone.

Reducing the severity of stroke.

Stroke remains one of the most important causes of death and disability worldwide. Effective prevention could reduce the burden of stroke dramatically. The management of stroke has undergone a revolution over the last few decades, particularly with the development of techniques for revascularisation of patients with ischaemic stroke. Advanced imaging able to identify potentially salvageable brain is further increasing the potential for effective acute treatment. However, the majority of stroke patients won't benefit from these treatments and will need effective specialist stroke care and ongoing rehabilitation to overcome impairments and adapt to living with a disability. There are still many unanswered questions about the most effective way of delivering rehabilitation. Likewise, research into how to manage primary intracerebral haemorrhage has yet to transform care.

Long-Term Survival After Intravenous Thrombolysis for Ischemic Stroke: A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort With up to 10-Year Follow-Up.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase is one of the few approved treatments for acute ischemic stroke; nevertheless, little is known about its long-term effects on survival and recovery because clinical trials follow-up times are limited. METHODS: Patients registered between January 2005 and December 2015, to the population-based South London Stroke Register of first-ever strokes. Propensity score was used to match thrombolyzed and control cases to a 1:2 ratio by demographical and clinical covariates. The primary outcome was survival up to 10 years using Kaplan-Meier estimates, Cox proportional hazards, and restricted mean survival time. Secondary outcomes included stroke recurrence and functional status (Barthel Index and Frenchay Activities Index scores) at 5 years. RESULTS: From 2052 ischemic strokes, 246 treated patients were matched to 492 controls. Median follow-up time 5.45 years (interquartile range, 4.56). Survival was higher in the treatment group (median, 5.72 years) compared with control group (4.98 years, stratified log-rank test <0.001). The number needed to treat to prevent 1 death at 5 years was 12 and 20 at 10 years. After Cox regression analysis, thrombolysis reduced risk of mortality by 37% (hazard ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.48-0.82) at 10 years; however, after introducing a multiplicative interaction term into the model, mortality risk reduction was 42% (hazard ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.40-0.82) at 10 years for those arriving within 3 hours to the hospital. On average, in a 10-year period, treated patients lived 1 year longer than controls. At 5 years, thrombolysis was associated with independence (Barthel Index≥90; odds ratio, 3.76; 95% CI, 1.22-13.34) and increased odds of a higher Frenchay Activities Index (proportional odds ratio, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.16-4.91). There was no difference in stroke recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Thrombolysis with intravenous alteplase is associated with improved long-term survival and functional status after ischemic stroke.

Associations Between 30-Day Mortality, Specialist Nursing, and Daily Physician Ward Rounds in a National Stroke Registry.

Background and Purpose- Well-organized stroke care is associated with better patient outcomes, but the most important organizational factors are unknown. Methods- Data were extracted from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme of adults with acute stroke treated in stroke hospitals in England and Wales between April 2013 and March 2015. Multilevel models with random intercepts for hospitals were used to estimate the association of each variable with 30-day mortality to estimate the impact of admission to differently organized hospitals. Results- Of the 143 578 patients with acute stroke admitted to 154 hospitals, 14.4% died within 30 days of admission. In adjusted analyses, admission to hospitals with higher ratios of nurses trained in swallow screening was associated with reduced odds of death ( P=0.004), and admission to hospitals with daily physician ward rounds was associated with 10% lower odds of mortality compared with less-frequent ward rounds (95% CI, 0.82-0.98; P=0.013). Number of stroke admissions and overall ratio of registered nurses on duty at weekends were not found to be independently associated with mortality after adjustment for other factors. Conclusions- If these associations are causal, an extra 1332 deaths annually in England and Wales could be saved by hospitals providing care associated with a ratio of nurses trained in swallow screening of at least 3 per 10 beds and daily stroke physician ward rounds.

Long-term trends in incidence and risk factors for ischaemic stroke subtypes: Prospective population study of the South London Stroke Register.

BACKGROUND: As the average life expectancy increases, more people are predicted to have strokes. Recent studies have shown an increasing incidence in certain types of cerebral infarction. We aimed to estimate time trends in incidence, prior risk factors, and use of preventive treatments for ischaemic stroke (IS) aetiological subtypes and to ascertain any demographic disparities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Population-based data from the South London Stroke Register (SLSR) between 2000 and 2015 were studied. IS was classified, based on the underlying mechanism, into large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), cardio-embolism (CE), small-vessel occlusion (SVO), other determined aetiologies (OTH), and undetermined aetiologies (UND). After calculation of age-, sex-, and ethnicity-specific incidence rates by subtype for the 16-year period, we analysed trends using Cochran-Armitage tests, Poisson regression models, and locally estimated scatterplot smoothers (loess). A total of 3,088 patients with first IS were registered. Between 2000-2003 and 2012-2015, the age-adjusted incidence of IS decreased by 43% from 137.3 to 78.4/100,000/year (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.57, 95% CI 0.5-0.64). Significant declines were observed in all subtypes, particularly in SVO (37.4-18; p < 0.0001) and less in CE (39.3-25; p < 0.0001). Reductions were recorded in males and females, younger (<55 years old) and older (≥55 years old) individuals, and white and black ethnic groups, though not significantly in the latter (144.6-116.2; p = 0.31 for IS). A 4-fold increase in prior-to-stroke use of statins was found (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 4.39, 95% CI 3.29-5.86), and despite the increasing prevalence of hypertension (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.21-1.96) and atrial fibrillation (OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.22-2.36), preventive use of antihypertensive and antiplatelet drugs was declining. A smaller number of participants in certain subgroup-specific analyses (e.g., black ethnicity and LAA subtype) could have limited the power to identify significant trends. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of ISs has been declining since 2000 in all age groups but to a lesser extent in the black population. The reported changes in medication use are unlikely to fully explain the reduction in stroke incidence; however, innovative prevention strategies and better management of risk factors may contribute further reduction.

20 years of researching stroke through audit.

Over the last 20 years, England, Wales and Northern Ireland have developed an audit programme that now encompasses nearly all patients admitted to hospital with a stroke. This article records and reviews some questions that have been answered using data from the audit: Is the rate of institutional care after rehabilitation a possible measure of outcome? Does stroke unit care in routine practice give the benefits shown in randomized controlled trials? How is the quality of stroke care affected by a patient's age and the time of their stroke? Do patient-reported measures match those obtained from the professionals recording of processes of care? How do the processes of care after stroke affect mortality? Is thrombolysis safe to use in patients over the age of 80? Do staffing levels matter? Does assessing the safety of swallowing really make a difference? Do clinicians make rational decisions about end-of-life care in patients with haemorrhage? Does socioeconomic status influence the risk of stroke, outcome after stroke and the quality of stroke care? How much does stroke really cost in England, Wales and Northern Ireland? The article concludes that this national audit has improved stroke care across the United Kingdom, has given answers to important questions that could not be answered in any other way and has shown that benefits found in research do generalize into real clinical benefits in day-to-day practice.

The potential role of cost-utility analysis in the decision to implement major system change in acute stroke services in metropolitan areas in England.

BACKGROUND: The economic implications of major system change are an important component of the decision to implement health service reconfigurations. Little is known about how best to report the results of economic evaluations of major system change to inform decision-makers. Reconfiguration of acute stroke care in two metropolitan areas in England, namely London and Greater Manchester (GM), was used to analyse the economic implications of two different implementation strategies for major system change. METHODS: A decision analytic model was used to calculate difference-in-differences in costs and outcomes before and after the implementation of two major system change strategies in stroke care in London and GM. Values in the model were based on patient level data from Hospital Episode Statistics, linked mortality data from the Office of National Statistics and data from two national stroke audits. Results were presented as net monetary benefit (NMB) and using Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis (PBMA) to assess the costs and benefits of a hypothetical typical region in England with approximately 4000 strokes a year. RESULTS: In London, after 90 days, there were nine fewer deaths per 1000 patients compared to the rest of England (95% CI -24 to 6) at an additional cost of £770,027 per 1000 stroke patients admitted. There were two additional deaths (95% CI -19 to 23) in GM, with a total costs saving of £156,118 per 1000 patients compared to the rest of England. At a £30,000 willingness to pay the NMB was higher in London and GM than the rest of England over the same time period. The results of the PBMA suggest that a GM style reconfiguration could result in a total greater health benefit to a region. Implementation costs were £136 per patient in London and £75 in GM. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of major system change in acute stroke care may result in a net health benefit to a region, even one functioning within a fixed budget. The choice of what model of stroke reconfiguration to implement may depend on the relative importance of clinical versus cost outcomes.

Weekly variation in health-care quality by day and time of admission: a nationwide, registry-based, prospective cohort study of acute stroke care.

BACKGROUND: Studies in many health systems have shown evidence of poorer quality health care for patients admitted on weekends or overnight than for those admitted during the week (the so-called weekend effect). We postulated that variation in quality was dependent on not only day, but also time, of admission, and aimed to describe the pattern and magnitude of variation in the quality of acute stroke care across the entire week. METHODS: We did this nationwide, registry-based, prospective cohort study using data from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme. We included all adult patients (aged >16 years) admitted to hospital with acute stroke (ischaemic or primary intracerebral haemorrhage) in England and Wales between April 1, 2013, and March 31, 2014. Our outcome measure was 30 day post-admission survival. We estimated adjusted odds ratios for 13 indicators of acute stroke-care quality by fitting multilevel multivariable regression models across 42 4-h time periods per week. FINDINGS: The study cohort comprised 74,307 patients with acute stroke admitted to 199 hospitals. Care quality varied across the entire week, not only between weekends and weekdays, with different quality measures showing different patterns and magnitudes of temporal variation. We identified four patterns of variation: a diurnal pattern (thrombolysis, brain scan within 12 h, brain scan within 1 h, dysphagia screening), a day of the week pattern (stroke physician assessment, nurse assessment, physiotherapy, occupational therapy, and assessment of communication and swallowing by a speech and language therapist), an off-hours pattern (door-to-needle time for thrombolysis), and a flow pattern whereby quality changed sequentially across days (stroke-unit admission within 4 h). The largest magnitude of variation was for door-to-needle time within 60 min (range in quality 35-66% [16/46-232/350]; coefficient of variation 18·2). There was no difference in 30 day survival between weekends and weekdays (adjusted odds ratio 1·03, 95% CI 0·95-1·13), but patients admitted overnight on weekdays had lower odds of survival (0·90, 0·82-0·99). INTERPRETATION: The weekend effect is a simplification, and just one of several patterns of weekly variation occurring in the quality of stroke care. Weekly variation should be further investigated in other health-care settings, and quality improvement should focus on reducing temporal variation in quality and not only the weekend effect. FUNDING: None.

The association between delays in screening for and assessing dysphagia after acute stroke, and the risk of stroke-associated pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: There is no robust evidence that screening patients with acute stroke for dysphagia reduces the risk of stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP), or of how quickly it should be done after admission. We aimed to identify if delays in bedside dysphagia screening and comprehensive dysphagia assessments by a speech and language therapist (SALT) were associated with patients' risk of SAP. METHODS: Nationwide, registry-based, prospective cohort study of patients admitted with acute stroke in England and Wales. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression models were fitted, adjusting for patient variables and stroke severity. The exposures were time from (1) admission to bedside dysphagia screen, and (2) admission to comprehensive dysphagia assessment. RESULTS: Of 63 650 patients admitted with acute stroke, 55 838 (88%) had a dysphagia screen, and 24 542 (39%) a comprehensive dysphagia assessment. Patients with the longest delays in dysphagia screening (4th quartile adjusted OR 1.14, 1.03 to 1.24) and SALT dysphagia assessment (4th quartile adjusted OR 2.01, 1.76 to 2.30) had a higher risk of SAP. The risk of SAP increased in a dose-response manner with delays in SALT dysphagia assessment, with an absolute increase of pneumonia incidence of 1% per day of delay. CONCLUSIONS: Delays in screening for and assessing dysphagia after stroke, are associated with higher risk of SAP. Since SAP is one of the main causes of mortality after acute stroke, early dysphagia assessment may contribute to preventing deaths from acute stroke and could be implemented even in settings without access to high-technology specialist stroke care.

Does Admission to Hospital Affect Trends in Survival and Dependency After Stroke Using the South London Stroke Register?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Despite guidelines for specialist assessment in hospital for stroke, it is important to identify patient characteristics, trends, and outcome in patients not admitted to hospital compared with patients admitted to hospital. METHODS: Population-based stroke register of first in a life time strokes between 1995 and 2012 were examined. Baseline data included admission or nonadmission, case mix, stroke subtype, and risk factors before stroke. Survival curves were estimated with Kaplan-Meier methods. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with poor outcome (dead and dependency: Barthel index, <15) at 3 months and 1 year. RESULTS: Three thousand four hundred sixty-four patients were admitted to hospital for stroke. Patients admitted were more likely have more severe impairments (P<0.001). There was a significant trend for increasing admission over time; 1995 to 2000 (82%), 2001 to 2006 (90%), and 2007 to 2012 (94%); P<0.001. When survival analysis was stratified according to Barthel index ≥15 at day 7, there were no significant differences in survival curves between admission and nonadmission groups in 1995 to 2000 (P=0.15) or 2001 to 2006 (P=0.06), but there was a significant trend for higher survival rates for nonadmission in the 2007 to 2012 cohort (P=0.025). Admission to hospital (stroke unit) compared with nonadmission was also associated with poor outcome in the 2001 to 2006 time period (odds ratio, 2.66; confidence interval, 1.17-6.04) and the 2007 to 2012 time period (odds ratio, 5.26; confidence interval, 1.27-21.81). CONCLUSION: There is a survival advantage from 2007 onward and lower levels of dependency from 2001 onward after adjusting for case mix for those patients who are not admitted to hospital, which requires further explanation.

Differences in the distribution of stroke subtypes in a UK black stroke population - final results from the South London Ethnicity and Stroke Study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke incidence is increased in Black individuals but the reasons for this are poorly understood. Exploring the differences in aetiological stroke subtypes, and the extent to which they are explained by conventional and novel risk factors, is an important step in elucidating the underlying mechanisms for this increased stroke risk. METHODS: Between 1999 and 2010, 1200 black and 1200 white stroke patients were prospectively recruited from a contiguous geographical area in South London in the UK. The Trial of Org 10172 (TOAST) classification was used to classify stroke subtype. Age- and sex-adjusted comparisons of socio-demographics, traditional vascular risk factors and stroke subtypes were performed between black and white stroke patients and between Black Caribbean and Black African stroke patients using age-, sex-, and social deprivation-adjusted univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Black stroke patients were younger than white stroke patients (mean (SD) 65.1 (13.7) vs. 74.8 (13.7) years). There were significant differences in the distribution of stroke subtypes. Small vessel disease stroke was increased in black patients versus white patients (27 % vs. 12 %; OR, 2.74; 95 % CI, 2.19-3.44), whereas large vessel and cardioembolic stroke was less frequent in black patients (OR, 0.59; 95 % CI, 0.45-0.78 and OR, 0.61; 95 % CI, 0.50-0.74, respectively). These associations remained after controlling for traditional vascular risk factors and socio-demographics. Black Caribbean patients appeared to have an intermediate risk factor and stroke subtype profile between that found in Black African and white stroke patients. Cardioembolic stroke was more strongly associated with Black Caribbean ethnicity versus Black African ethnicity (OR, 1.48; 95 % CI, 1.04-2.10), whereas intracranial large vessel disease was less frequent in Black Caribbean patients versus Black African subjects (OR, 0.44; 95 % CI, 0.24-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: Clear differences exist in stroke subtype distribution between black and white stroke patients, with a marked increase in small vessel stroke. These could not be explained by differences in the assessed traditional risk factors. Possible explanations for these differences might include variations in genetic susceptibility, differing rates of control of vascular risk factors, or as yet undetermined environmental risk factors.