Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater.

Meltwater from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is projected to cause up to one metre of sea-level rise by 2100 under the highest greenhouse gas concentration trajectory (RCP8.5) considered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, the effects of meltwater from the ice sheets and ice shelves of Antarctica are not included in the widely used CMIP5 climate models, which introduces bias into IPCC climate projections. Here we assess a large ensemble simulation of the CMIP5 model 'GFDL ESM2M' that accounts for RCP8.5-projected Antarctic Ice Sheet meltwater. We find that, relative to the standard RCP8.5 scenario, accounting for meltwater delays the exceedance of the maximum global-mean atmospheric warming targets of 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius by more than a decade, enhances drying of the Southern Hemisphere and reduces drying of the Northern Hemisphere, increases the formation of Antarctic sea ice (consistent with recent observations of increasing Antarctic sea-ice area) and warms the subsurface ocean around the Antarctic coast. Moreover, the meltwater-induced subsurface ocean warming could lead to further ice-sheet and ice-shelf melting through a positive feedback mechanism, highlighting the importance of including meltwater effects in simulations of future climate.

The environmental context for the origins of modern human diversity: a synthesis of regional variability in African climate 150,000-30,000 years ago.

We synthesize African paleoclimate from 150 to 30 ka (thousand years ago) using 85 diverse datasets at a regional scale, testing for coherence with North Atlantic glacial/interglacial phases and northern and southern hemisphere insolation cycles. Two major determinants of circum-African climate variability over this time period are supported by principal components analysis: North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variations and local insolation maxima. North Atlantic SSTs correlated with the variability found in most circum-African SST records, whereas the variability of the majority of terrestrial temperature and precipitation records is explained by local insolation maxima, particularly at times when solar radiation was intense and highly variable (e.g., 150-75 ka). We demonstrate that climates varied with latitude, such that periods of relatively increased aridity or humidity were asynchronous across the northern, eastern, tropical and southern portions of Africa. Comparisons of the archaeological, fossil, or genetic records with generalized patterns of environmental change based solely on northern hemisphere glacial/interglacial cycles are therefore imprecise. We compare our refined climatic framework to a database of 64 radiometrically-dated paleoanthropological sites to test hypotheses of demographic response to climatic change among African hominin populations during the 150-30 ka interval. We argue that at a continental scale, population and climate changes were asynchronous and likely occurred under different regimes of climate forcing, creating alternating opportunities for migration into adjacent regions. Our results suggest little relation between large scale demographic and climate change in southern Africa during this time span, but strongly support the hypothesis of hominin occupation of the Sahara during discrete humid intervals ~135-115 ka and 105-75 ka. Hominin populations in equatorial and eastern Africa may have been buffered from the extremes of climate change by locally steep altitudinal and rainfall gradients and the complex and variable effects of increased aridity on human habitat suitability in the tropics. Our data are consistent with hominin migrations out of Africa through varying exit points from ~140-80 ka.

Measurements of 129I in the Pacific Ocean at Scripps Pier and Pacific Northwest sites: A search for effects from the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident and Hanford.

Radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant were released directly into the ocean as a result of the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. This material became entrained in surface ocean currents and subsequently transported for great distances. In June 2011, a few months after the disaster, we began a surface ocean 129I monitoring program, with samples from Scripps Pier, La Jolla, California, USA, with the expectation that surface currents originating off the east coast of Japan would eventually carry radionuclides to the La Jolla site. After 7 years of ocean transport, a distinct signal has not yet arrived at Scripps Pier. We have however, recorded an interesting systematic seasonal 129I time series record that stems from surface circulation variations along the California coast. To provide a more comprehensive picture of the 129I budget in coastal surface waters off the west coast of the U.S., we also include 129I data from the Columbia River, and offshore sites along the coast of Washington State. Anthropogenic nuclides are carried by the Columbia River into the Pacific Ocean from the vicinity of the decommissioned Hanford nuclear facility. We find highly elevated 129I/127I values in the Columbia River, downstream from the Hanford site, but this anthropogenic 129I becomes significantly diluted once it reaches the Pacific Ocean. Nonetheless, its imprint persists in surface seawater off the west coast of the U.S. that has significantly higher 129I/127I levels than other surface sites in the Pacific Ocean.

Reconstructing surface ocean circulation with 129I time series records from corals.

The long-lived radionuclide 129I (half-life: 15.7 × 106 yr) is well-known as a useful environmental tracer. At present, the global 129I in surface water is about 1-2 orders of magnitude higher than pre-1960 levels. Since the 1990s, anthropogenic 129I produced from industrial nuclear fuels reprocessing plants has been the primary source of 129I in marine surface waters of the Atlantic and around the globe. Here we present four coral 129I time series records from: 1) Con Dao and 2) Xisha Islands, the South China Sea, 3) Rabaul, Papua New Guinea and 4) Guam. The Con Dao coral 129I record features a sudden increase in 129I in 1959. The Xisha coral shows similar peak values for 129I as the Con Dao coral, punctuated by distinct low values, likely due to the upwelling in the central South China Sea. The Rabaul coral features much more gradual 129I increases in the 1970s, similar to a published record from the Solomon Islands. The Guam coral 129I record contains the largest measured values for any site, with two large peaks, in 1955 and 1959. Nuclear weapons testing was the primary 129I source in the Western Pacific in the latter part of the 20th Century, notably from testing in the Marshall Islands. The Guam 1955 peak and Con Dao 1959 increases are likely from the 1954 Castle Bravo test, and the Operation Hardtack I test is the most likely source of the 1959 peak observed at Guam. Radiogenic iodine found in coral was carried primarily through surface ocean currents. The coral 129I time series data provide a broad picture of the surface distribution and depth penetration of 129I in the Pacific Ocean over the past 60 years.