Steady agronomic and genetic interventions are essential for sustaining productivity in intensive rice cropping.

Intensive systems with two or three rice (Oryza sativa L.) crops per year account for about 50% of the harvested area for irrigated rice in Asia. Any reduction in productivity or sustainability of these systems has serious implications for global food security. Rice yield trends in the world's longest-running long-term continuous cropping experiment (LTCCE) were evaluated to investigate consequences of intensive cropping and to draw lessons for sustaining production in Asia. Annual production was sustained at a steady level over the 50-y period in the LTCCE through continuous adjustment of management practices and regular cultivar replacement. Within each of the three annual cropping seasons (dry, early wet, and late wet), yield decline was observed during the first phase, from 1968 to 1990. Agronomic improvements in 1991 to 1995 helped to reverse this yield decline, but yield increases did not continue thereafter from 1996 to 2017. Regular genetic and agronomic improvements were sufficient to maintain yields at steady levels in dry and early wet seasons despite a reduction in the yield potential due to changing climate. Yield declines resumed in the late wet season. Slower growth in genetic gain after the first 20 y was associated with slower breeding cycle advancement as indicated by pedigree depth. Our findings demonstrate that through adjustment of management practices and regular cultivar replacement, it is possible to sustain a high level of annual production in irrigated systems under a changing climate. However, the system was unable to achieve further increases in yield required to keep pace with the growing global rice demand.

New cycle, same old mistakes? Overlapping vs. discrete generations in long-term recurrent selection.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent selection is a foundational breeding method for quantitative trait improvement. It typically features rapid breeding cycles that can lead to high rates of genetic gain. Usually, generations are discrete in recurrent selection, which means that breeding candidates are evaluated and considered for selection for only one cycle. Alternately, generations can overlap, with breeding candidates considered for selection as parents for multiple cycles. With recurrent genomic selection but not phenotypic selection, candidates can be re-evaluated by using genomic estimated breeding values without additional phenotyping of the candidates themselves. Therefore, it may be that candidates with true high breeding values discarded in one cycle due to underestimation of breeding value could be identified and selected in subsequent cycles. The consequences of allowing generations to overlap in recurrent selection are unknown. We assessed whether maintaining overlapping and discrete generations led to differences in genetic gain for phenotypic, genomic truncation, and genomic optimum contribution recurrent selection by stochastic simulation. RESULTS: With phenotypic selection, overlapping generations led to decreased genetic gain compared to discrete generations due to increased selection error bias. Selected individuals, which were in the upper tail of the distribution of phenotypic values, tended to also have high absolute error relative to their true breeding value compared to the overall population. Without repeated phenotyping, these individuals erroneously believed to have high value were repeatedly selected across cycles, leading to decreased genetic gain. With genomic truncation selection, overlapping and discrete generations performed similarly as updating breeding values precluded repeatedly selecting individuals with inaccurately high estimates of breeding values in subsequent cycles. Overlapping generations did not outperform discrete generations in the presence of a positive genetic trend with genomic truncation selection, as individuals from previous breeding cycles typically had truly lower breeding values than candidates from the current generation. With genomic optimum contribution selection, overlapping and discrete generations performed similarly, but overlapping generations slightly outperformed discrete generations in the long term if the targeted inbreeding rate was extremely low. CONCLUSION: Maintaining discrete generations in recurrent phenotypic selection leads to increased genetic gain, especially at low heritabilities, by preventing selection error bias. With genomic truncation selection and genomic optimum contribution selection, genetic gain does not differ between discrete and overlapping generations assuming non-genetic effects are not present. Overlapping generations may increase genetic gain in the long term with very low targeted rates of inbreeding in genomic optimum contribution selection.

Genetic Trends in Fusarium Head Blight Resistance from 20 Years of Winter Wheat Breeding and Cooperative Testing in the Northern U.S.A.

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a devastating disease of wheat and barley. In the U.S.A., a significant long-term investment in breeding FHB-resistant cultivars began after the 1990s. However, to this date, no study has been performed to understand and monitor the rate of genetic progress in FHB resistance as a result of this investment. Using 20 years of data (1998 to 2018) from the Northern Uniform and Preliminarily Northern Uniform winter wheat scab nurseries that consisted of 1,068 genotypes originating from nine different institutions, we studied the genetic trends in FHB resistance within the northern soft red winter wheat growing region using mixed model analyses. For the FHB resistance traits incidence, severity, Fusarium-damaged kernels, and deoxynivalenol content, the rate of genetic gain in disease resistance was estimated to be 0.30 ± 0.1, 0.60 ± 0.09, and 0.37 ± 0.11 points per year, and 0.11 ± 0.05 parts per million per year, respectively. Among the five FHB-resistance quantitative trait loci assayed for test entries from 2012 to 2018, the frequencies of favorable alleles from Fhb 2DL Wuhan1 W14, Fhb Ernie 3Bc, and Fhb 5A Ning7840 were close to zero across the years. The frequency of the favorable at Fhb1 and Fhb 5A Ernie ranged from 0.08 to 0.33 and 0.06 to 0.20, respectively, across years, and there was no trend in changes in allele frequencies over years. Overall, this study showed that substantial genetic progress has been made toward improving resistance to FHB. It is apparent that today's investment in public wheat breeding for FHB resistance is achieving results and will continue to play a vital role in reducing FHB levels in growers' fields.

Establishment method affects rice root plasticity in response to drought and its relationship with grain yield stability.

By responding to the variable soil environments in which they are grown, the roots of rice crops are likely to contribute to yield stability across a range of soil moistures, nutrient levels, and establishment methods. In this study, we explored different approaches to quantification of root plasticity and characterization of its relationship with yield stability. Using four different statistical approaches (plasticity index, slope, AMMI, and factor analytic) on a set of 17 genotypes including several recently-developed breeding lines targeted to dry direct-seeding, we identified only very few direct relationships between root plasticity and yield stability. However, genotypes identified as having combined yield stability and root plasticity showed higher grain yields across trials. Furthermore, root plasticity was expressed to a greater degree in puddled transplanted trials rather than under dry direct-seeding. Significant interactions between nitrogen and water resulted in contrasting relationships between nitrogen-use efficiency and biomass stability between puddled-transplanted and direct-seeded conditions. These results reflect the complex interaction between nitrogen, drought, and even different types of drought (as a result of the establishment method) on rice root growth, and suggest that although rice root plasticity may confer stable yield across a range of environments, it might be necessary to more narrowly define the targeted environments to which it will be most beneficial.

Enhancing the rate of genetic gain in public-sector plant breeding programs: lessons from the breeder's equation.

KEY MESSAGE: The integration of new technologies into public plant breeding programs can make a powerful step change in agricultural productivity when aligned with principles of quantitative and Mendelian genetics. The breeder's equation is the foundational application of quantitative genetics to crop improvement. Guided by the variables that describe response to selection, emerging breeding technologies can make a powerful step change in the effectiveness of public breeding programs. The most promising innovations for increasing the rate of genetic gain without greatly increasing program size appear to be related to reducing breeding cycle time, which is likely to require the implementation of parent selection on non-inbred progeny, rapid generation advance, and genomic selection. These are complex processes and will require breeding organizations to adopt a culture of continuous optimization and improvement. To enable this, research managers will need to consider and proactively manage the, accountability, strategy, and resource allocations of breeding teams. This must be combined with thoughtful management of elite genetic variation and a clear separation between the parental selection process and product development and advancement process. With an abundance of new technologies available, breeding teams need to evaluate carefully the impact of any new technology on selection intensity, selection accuracy, and breeding cycle length relative to its cost of deployment. Finally breeding data management systems need to be well designed to support selection decisions and novel approaches to accelerate breeding cycles need to be routinely evaluated and deployed.

High-throughput phenotyping platforms enhance genomic selection for wheat grain yield across populations and cycles in early stage.

Genomic selection (GS) models have been validated for many quantitative traits in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding. However, those models are mostly constrained within the same growing cycle and the extension of GS to the case of across cycles has been a challenge, mainly due to the low predictive accuracy resulting from two factors: reduced genetic relationships between different families and augmented environmental variances between cycles. Using the data collected from diverse field conditions at the International Wheat and Maize Improvement Center, we evaluated GS for grain yield in three elite yield trials across three wheat growing cycles. The objective of this project was to employ the secondary traits, canopy temperature, and green normalized difference vegetation index, which are closely associated with grain yield from high-throughput phenotyping platforms, to improve prediction accuracy for grain yield. The ability to predict grain yield was evaluated reciprocally across three cycles with or without secondary traits. Our results indicate that prediction accuracy increased by an average of 146% for grain yield across cycles with secondary traits. In addition, our results suggest that secondary traits phenotyped during wheat heading and early grain filling stages were optimal for enhancing the prediction accuracy for grain yield.

Genomic and pedigree-based prediction for leaf, stem, and stripe rust resistance in wheat.

KEY MESSAGE: Genomic prediction for seedling and adult plant resistance to wheat rusts was compared to prediction using few markers as fixed effects in a least-squares approach and pedigree-based prediction. The unceasing plant-pathogen arms race and ephemeral nature of some rust resistance genes have been challenging for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding programs and farmers. Hence, it is important to devise strategies for effective evaluation and exploitation of quantitative rust resistance. One promising approach that could accelerate gain from selection for rust resistance is 'genomic selection' which utilizes dense genome-wide markers to estimate the breeding values (BVs) for quantitative traits. Our objective was to compare three genomic prediction models including genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP), GBLUP A that was GBLUP with selected loci as fixed effects and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces-markers (RKHS-M) with least-squares (LS) approach, RKHS-pedigree (RKHS-P), and RKHS markers and pedigree (RKHS-MP) to determine the BVs for seedling and/or adult plant resistance (APR) to leaf rust (LR), stem rust (SR), and stripe rust (YR). The 333 lines in the 45th IBWSN and the 313 lines in the 46th IBWSN were genotyped using genotyping-by-sequencing and phenotyped in replicated trials. The mean prediction accuracies ranged from 0.31-0.74 for LR seedling, 0.12-0.56 for LR APR, 0.31-0.65 for SR APR, 0.70-0.78 for YR seedling, and 0.34-0.71 for YR APR. For most datasets, the RKHS-MP model gave the highest accuracies, while LS gave the lowest. GBLUP, GBLUP A, RKHS-M, and RKHS-P models gave similar accuracies. Using genome-wide marker-based models resulted in an average of 42% increase in accuracy over LS. We conclude that GS is a promising approach for improvement of quantitative rust resistance and can be implemented in the breeding pipeline.

Implementing multi-trait genomic selection to improve grain milling quality in oats (Avena sativa L.).

Oats (Avena sativa L.) provide unique nutritional benefits and contribute to sustainable agricultural systems. Breeding high-value oat varieties that meet milling industry standards is crucial for satisfying the demand for oat-based food products. Test weight, thins, and groat percentage are primary traits that define oat milling quality and the final price of food-grade oats. Conventional selection for milling quality is costly and burdensome. Multi-trait genomic selection (MTGS) combines information from genome-wide markers and secondary traits genetically correlated with primary traits to predict breeding values of primary traits on candidate breeding lines. MTGS can improve prediction accuracy and significantly accelerate the rate of genetic gain. In this study, we evaluated different MTGS models that used morphometric grain traits to improve prediction accuracy for primary grain quality traits within the constraints of a breeding program. We evaluated 558 breeding lines from the University of Illinois Oat Breeding Program across 2 years for primary milling traits, test weight, thins, and groat percentage, and secondary grain morphometric traits derived from kernel and groat images. Kernel morphometric traits were genetically correlated with test weight and thins percentage but were uncorrelated with groat percentage. For test weight and thins percentage, the MTGS model that included the kernel morphometric traits in both training and candidate sets outperformed single-trait models by 52% and 59%, respectively. In contrast, MTGS models for groat percentage were not significantly better than the single-trait model. We found that incorporating kernel morphometric traits can improve the genomic selection for test weight and thins percentage.

Multi-trait genomic selection can increase selection accuracy for deoxynivalenol accumulation resulting from fusarium head blight in wheat.

Multi-trait genomic prediction (MTGP) can improve selection accuracy for economically valuable 'primary' traits by incorporating data on correlated secondary traits. Resistance to Fusarium head blight (FHB), a fungal disease of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), is evaluated using four genetically correlated traits: incidence (INC), severity (SEV), Fusarium damaged kernels (FDK), and deoxynivalenol content (DON). Both FDK and DON are primary traits; DON evaluation is expensive and usually requires several months for wheat breeders to get results from service laboratories performing the evaluations. We evaluated MTGP for DON using three soft red winter wheat breeding datasets: two diversity panels from the University of Illinois (IL) and Purdue University (PU) and a dataset consisting of 2019-2020 University of Illinois breeding cohorts. For DON, relative to single-trait (ST) genomic prediction, MTGP including phenotypic data for secondary traits on both validation and training sets, resulted in 23.4 and 10.6% higher predictive abilities in IL and PU panels, respectively. The MTGP models were advantageous only when secondary traits were included in both training and validation sets. In addition, MTGP models were more accurate than ST models only when FDK was included, and once FDK was included in the model, adding additional traits hardly improved accuracy. Evaluation of MTGP models across testing cohorts indicated that MTGP could increase accuracy by more than twofold in the early stages. Overall, we show that MTGP can increase selection accuracy for resistance to DON accumulation in wheat provided FDK is evaluated on the selection candidates.

Association mapping and gene-gene interaction for stem rust resistance in CIMMYT spring wheat germplasm.

The recent emergence of wheat stem rust Ug99 and evolution of new races within the lineage threatens global wheat production because they overcome widely deployed stem rust resistance (Sr) genes that had been effective for many years. To identify loci conferring adult plant resistance to races of Ug99 in wheat, we employed an association mapping approach for 276 current spring wheat breeding lines from the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT). Breeding lines were genotyped with Diversity Array Technology (DArT) and microsatellite markers. Phenotypic data was collected on these lines for stem rust race Ug99 resistance at the adult plant stage in the stem rust resistance screening nursery in Njoro, Kenya in seasons 2008, 2009 and 2010. Fifteen marker loci were found to be significantly associated with stem rust resistance. Several markers appeared to be linked to known Sr genes, while other significant markers were located in chromosome regions where no Sr genes have been previously reported. Most of these new loci colocalized with QTLs identified recently in different biparental populations. Using the same data and Q + K covariate matrices, we investigated the interactions among marker loci using linear regression models to calculate P values for pairwise marker interactions. Resistance marker loci including the Sr2 locus on 3BS and the wPt1859 locus on 7DL had significant interaction effects with other loci in the same chromosome arm and with markers on chromosome 6B. Other resistance marker loci had significant pairwise interactions with markers on different chromosomes. Based on these results, we propose that a complex network of gene-gene interactions is, in part, responsible for resistance to Ug99. Further investigation may provide insight for understanding mechanisms that contribute to this resistance gene network.

Heterosis and Hybrid Crop Breeding: A Multidisciplinary Review.

Although hybrid crop varieties are among the most popular agricultural innovations, the rationale for hybrid crop breeding is sometimes misunderstood. Hybrid breeding is slower and more resource-intensive than inbred breeding, but it allows systematic improvement of a population by recurrent selection and exploitation of heterosis simultaneously. Inbred parental lines can identically reproduce both themselves and their F1 progeny indefinitely, whereas outbred lines cannot, so uniform outbred lines must be bred indirectly through their inbred parents to harness heterosis. Heterosis is an expected consequence of whole-genome non-additive effects at the population level over evolutionary time. Understanding heterosis from the perspective of molecular genetic mechanisms alone may be elusive, because heterosis is likely an emergent property of populations. Hybrid breeding is a process of recurrent population improvement to maximize hybrid performance. Hybrid breeding is not maximization of heterosis per se, nor testing random combinations of individuals to find an exceptional hybrid, nor using heterosis in place of population improvement. Though there are methods to harness heterosis other than hybrid breeding, such as use of open-pollinated varieties or clonal propagation, they are not currently suitable for all crops or production environments. The use of genomic selection can decrease cycle time and costs in hybrid breeding, particularly by rapidly establishing heterotic pools, reducing testcrossing, and limiting the loss of genetic variance. Open questions in optimal use of genomic selection in hybrid crop breeding programs remain, such as how to choose founders of heterotic pools, the importance of dominance effects in genomic prediction, the necessary frequency of updating the training set with phenotypic information, and how to maintain genetic variance and prevent fixation of deleterious alleles.

Genomic Prediction of Yield Traits in Single-Cross Hybrid Rice (Oryza sativa L.).

Hybrid rice varieties can outyield the best inbred varieties by 15 - 30% with appropriate management. However, hybrid rice requires more inputs and management than inbred rice to realize a yield advantage in high-yielding environments. The development of stress-tolerant hybrid rice with lowered input requirements could increase hybrid rice yield relative to production costs. We used genomic prediction to evaluate the combining abilities of 564 stress-tolerant lines used to develop Green Super Rice with 13 male sterile lines of the International Rice Research Institute for yield-related traits. We also evaluated the performance of their F1 hybrids. We identified male sterile lines with good combining ability as well as F1 hybrids with potential further use in product development. For yield per plant, accuracies of genomic predictions of hybrid genetic values ranged from 0.490 to 0.822 in cross-validation if neither parent or up to both parents were included in the training set, and both general and specific combining abilities were modeled. The accuracy of phenotypic selection for hybrid yield per plant was 0.682. The accuracy of genomic predictions of male GCA for yield per plant was 0.241, while the accuracy of phenotypic selection was 0.562. At the observed accuracies, genomic prediction of hybrid genetic value could allow improved identification of high-performing single crosses. In a reciprocal recurrent genomic selection program with an accelerated breeding cycle, observed male GCA genomic prediction accuracies would lead to similar rates of genetic gain as phenotypic selection. It is likely that prediction accuracies of male GCA could be improved further by targeted expansion of the training set. Additionally, we tested the correlation of parental genetic distance with mid-parent heterosis in the phenotyped hybrids. We found the average mid-parent heterosis for yield per plant to be consistent with existing literature values at 32.0%. In the overall population of study, parental genetic distance was significantly negatively correlated with mid-parent heterosis for yield per plant (r = -0.131) and potential yield (r = -0.092), but within female families the correlations were non-significant and near zero. As such, positive parental genetic distance was not reliably associated with positive mid-parent heterosis.

Identification of an Elite Core Panel as a Key Breeding Resource to Accelerate the Rate of Genetic Improvement for Irrigated Rice.

Rice genetic improvement is a key component of achieving and maintaining food security in Asia and Africa in the face of growing populations and climate change. In this effort, the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) continues to play a critical role in creating and disseminating rice varieties with higher productivity. Due to increasing demand for rice, especially in Africa, there is a strong need to accelerate the rate of genetic improvement for grain yield. In an effort to identify and characterize the elite breeding pool of IRRI's irrigated rice breeding program, we analyzed 102 historical yield trials conducted in the Philippines during the period 2012-2016 and representing 15,286 breeding lines (including released varieties). A mixed model approach based on the pedigree relationship matrix was used to estimate breeding values for grain yield, which ranged from 2.12 to 6.27 t·ha-1. The rate of genetic gain for grain yield was estimated at 8.75 kg·ha-1 year-1 (0.23%) for crosses made in the period from 1964 to 2014. Reducing the data to only IRRI released varieties, the rate doubled to 17.36 kg·ha-1 year-1 (0.46%). Regressed against breeding cycle the rate of gain for grain yield was 185 kg·ha-1 cycle-1 (4.95%). We selected 72 top performing lines based on breeding values for grain yield to create an elite core panel (ECP) representing the genetic diversity in the breeding program with the highest heritable yield values from which new products can be derived. The ECP closely aligns with the indica 1B sub-group of Oryza sativa that includes most modern varieties for irrigated systems. Agronomic performance of the ECP under multiple environments in Asia and Africa confirmed its high yield potential. We found that the rate of genetic gain for grain yield found in this study was limited primarily by long cycle times and the direct introduction of non-improved material into the elite pool. Consequently, the current breeding scheme for irrigated rice at IRRI is based on rapid recurrent selection among highly elite lines. In this context, the ECP constitutes an important resource for IRRI and NAREs breeders to carefully characterize and manage that elite diversity.

1k-RiCA (1K-Rice Custom Amplicon) a novel genotyping amplicon-based SNP assay for genetics and breeding applications in rice.

BACKGROUND: While a multitude of genotyping platforms have been developed for rice, the majority of them have not been optimized for breeding where cost, turnaround time, throughput and ease of use, relative to density and informativeness are critical parameters of their utility. With that in mind we report the development of the 1K-Rice Custom Amplicon, or 1k-RiCA, a robust custom sequencing-based amplicon panel of ~ 1000-SNPs that are uniformly distributed across the rice genome, designed to be highly informative within indica rice breeding pools, and tailored for genomic prediction in elite indica rice breeding programs. RESULTS: Empirical validation tests performed on the 1k-RiCA showed average marker call rates of 95% with marker repeatability and concordance rates of 99%. These technical properties were not affected when two common DNA extraction protocols were used. The average distance between SNPs in the 1k-RiCA was 1.5 cM, similar to the theoretical distance which would be expected between 1,000 uniformly distributed markers across the rice genome. The average minor allele frequencies on a panel of indica lines was 0.36 and polymorphic SNPs estimated on pairwise comparisons between indica by indica accessions and indica by japonica accessions were on average 430 and 450 respectively. The specific design parameters of the 1k-RiCA allow for a detailed view of genetic relationships and unambiguous molecular IDs within indica accessions and good cost vs. marker-density balance for genomic prediction applications in elite indica germplasm. Predictive abilities of Genomic Selection models for flowering time, grain yield, and plant height were on average 0.71, 0.36, and 0.65 respectively based on cross-validation analysis. Furthermore the inclusion of important trait markers associated with 11 different genes and QTL adds value to parental selection in crossing schemes and marker-assisted selection in forward breeding applications. CONCLUSIONS: This study validated the marker quality and robustness of the 1k-RiCA genotypic platform for genotyping populations derived from indica rice subpopulation for genetic and breeding purposes including MAS and genomic selection. The 1k-RiCA has proven to be an alternative cost-effective genotyping system for breeding applications.

Hyperspectral Reflectance-Derived Relationship Matrices for Genomic Prediction of Grain Yield in Wheat.

Hyperspectral reflectance phenotyping and genomic selection are two emerging technologies that have the potential to increase plant breeding efficiency by improving prediction accuracy for grain yield. Hyperspectral cameras quantify canopy reflectance across a wide range of wavelengths that are associated with numerous biophysical and biochemical processes in plants. Genomic selection models utilize genome-wide marker or pedigree information to predict the genetic values of breeding lines. In this study, we propose a multi-kernel GBLUP approach to genomic selection that uses genomic marker-, pedigree-, and hyperspectral reflectance-derived relationship matrices to model the genetic main effects and genotype × environment (G × E) interactions across environments within a bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding program. We utilized an airplane equipped with a hyperspectral camera to phenotype five differentially managed treatments of the yield trials conducted by the Bread Wheat Improvement Program of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) at Ciudad Obregón, México over four breeding cycles. We observed that single-kernel models using hyperspectral reflectance-derived relationship matrices performed similarly or superior to marker- and pedigree-based genomic selection models when predicting within and across environments. Multi-kernel models combining marker/pedigree information with hyperspectral reflectance phentoypes had the highest prediction accuracies; however, improvements in accuracy over marker- and pedigree-based models were marginal when correcting for days to heading. Our results demonstrate the potential of using hyperspectral imaging to predict grain yield within a multi-environment context and also support further studies on the integration of hyperspectral reflectance phenotyping into breeding programs.

Combining High-Throughput Phenotyping and Genomic Information to Increase Prediction and Selection Accuracy in Wheat Breeding.

Genomics and phenomics have promised to revolutionize the field of plant breeding. The integration of these two fields has just begun and is being driven through big data by advances in next-generation sequencing and developments of field-based high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) platforms. Each year the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) evaluates tens-of-thousands of advanced lines for grain yield across multiple environments. To evaluate how CIMMYT may utilize dynamic HTP data for genomic selection (GS), we evaluated 1170 of these advanced lines in two environments, drought (2014, 2015) and heat (2015). A portable phenotyping system called 'Phenocart' was used to measure normalized difference vegetation index and canopy temperature simultaneously while tagging each data point with precise GPS coordinates. For genomic profiling, genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) was used for marker discovery and genotyping. Several GS models were evaluated utilizing the 2254 GBS markers along with over 1.1 million phenotypic observations. The physiological measurements collected by HTP, whether used as a response in multivariate models or as a covariate in univariate models, resulted in a range of 33% below to 7% above the standard univariate model. Continued advances in yield prediction models as well as increasing data generating capabilities for both genomic and phenomic data will make these selection strategies tractable for plant breeders to implement increasing the rate of genetic gain.

Multitrait, Random Regression, or Simple Repeatability Model in High-Throughput Phenotyping Data Improve Genomic Prediction for Wheat Grain Yield.

High-throughput phenotyping (HTP) platforms can be used to measure traits that are genetically correlated with wheat ( L.) grain yield across time. Incorporating such secondary traits in the multivariate pedigree and genomic prediction models would be desirable to improve indirect selection for grain yield. In this study, we evaluated three statistical models, simple repeatability (SR), multitrait (MT), and random regression (RR), for the longitudinal data of secondary traits and compared the impact of the proposed models for secondary traits on their predictive abilities for grain yield. Grain yield and secondary traits, canopy temperature (CT) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), were collected in five diverse environments for 557 wheat lines with available pedigree and genomic information. A two-stage analysis was applied for pedigree and genomic selection (GS). First, secondary traits were fitted by SR, MT, or RR models, separately, within each environment. Then, best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of secondary traits from the above models were used in the multivariate prediction models to compare predictive abilities for grain yield. Predictive ability was substantially improved by 70%, on average, from multivariate pedigree and genomic models when including secondary traits in both training and test populations. Additionally, (i) predictive abilities slightly varied for MT, RR, or SR models in this data set, (ii) results indicated that including BLUPs of secondary traits from the MT model was the best in severe drought, and (iii) the RR model was slightly better than SR and MT models under drought environment.

Single-Step Genomic and Pedigree Genotype × Environment Interaction Models for Predicting Wheat Lines in International Environments.

Genomic prediction models have been commonly used in plant breeding but only in reduced datasets comprising a few hundred genotyped individuals. However, pedigree information for an entire breeding population is frequently available, as are historical data on the performance of a large number of selection candidates. The single-step method extends the genomic relationship information from genotyped individuals to pedigree information from a larger number of phenotyped individuals in order to combine relationship information on all members of the breeding population. Furthermore, genomic prediction models that incorporate genotype × environment interactions (G × E) have produced substantial increases in prediction accuracy compared with single-environment genomic prediction models. Our main objective was to show how to use single-step genomic and pedigree models to assess the prediction accuracy of 58,798 CIMMYT wheat ( L.) lines evaluated in several simulated environments in Ciudad Obregon, Mexico, and to predict the grain yield performance of some of them in several sites in South Asia (India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh) using a reaction norm model that incorporated G × E. Another objective was to describe the statistical and computational challenges encountered when developing the pedigree and single-step models in such large datasets. Results indicate that the genomic prediction accuracy achieved by models using pedigree only, markers only, or both pedigree and markers to predict various environments in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh is higher (0.25-0.38) than prediction accuracy of models that use only phenotypic prediction (0.20) or do not include the G × E term.

Comparison of Models and Whole-Genome Profiling Approaches for Genomic-Enabled Prediction of Septoria Tritici Blotch, Stagonospora Nodorum Blotch, and Tan Spot Resistance in Wheat.

The leaf spotting diseases in wheat that include Septoria tritici blotch (STB) caused by , Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB) caused by , and tan spot (TS) caused by pose challenges to breeding programs in selecting for resistance. A promising approach that could enable selection prior to phenotyping is genomic selection that uses genome-wide markers to estimate breeding values (BVs) for quantitative traits. To evaluate this approach for seedling and/or adult plant resistance (APR) to STB, SNB, and TS, we compared the predictive ability of least-squares (LS) approach with genomic-enabled prediction models including genomic best linear unbiased predictor (GBLUP), Bayesian ridge regression (BRR), Bayes A (BA), Bayes B (BB), Bayes Cπ (BC), Bayesian least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (BL), and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces markers (RKHS-M), a pedigree-based model (RKHS-P) and RKHS markers and pedigree (RKHS-MP). We observed that LS gave the lowest prediction accuracies and RKHS-MP, the highest. The genomic-enabled prediction models and RKHS-P gave similar accuracies. The increase in accuracy using genomic prediction models over LS was 48%. The mean genomic prediction accuracies were 0.45 for STB (APR), 0.55 for SNB (seedling), 0.66 for TS (seedling) and 0.48 for TS (APR). We also compared markers from two whole-genome profiling approaches: genotyping by sequencing (GBS) and diversity arrays technology sequencing (DArTseq) for prediction. While, GBS markers performed slightly better than DArTseq, combining markers from the two approaches did not improve accuracies. We conclude that implementing GS in breeding for these diseases would help to achieve higher accuracies and rapid gains from selection.