Synthetic Controls for Implementation Science: Opportunities for HIV Program Evaluation Using Routinely Collected Data.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: HIV service delivery programs are some of the largest funded public health programs in the world. Timely, efficient evaluation of these programs can be enhanced with methodologies designed to estimate the effects of policy. We propose using the synthetic control method (SCM) as an implementation science tool to evaluate these HIV programs. RECENT FINDINGS: SCM, introduced in econometrics, shows increasing utility across fields. Key benefits of this methodology over traditional design-based approaches for evaluation stem from directly approximating pre-intervention trends by weighting of candidate non-intervention units. We demonstrate SCM to evaluate the effectiveness of a public health intervention targeting HIV health facilities with high numbers of recent infections on trends in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) enrollment. This test case demonstrates SCM's feasibility for effectiveness evaluations of site-level HIV interventions. HIV programs collecting longitudinal, routine service delivery data for many facilities, with only some receiving a time-specified intervention, are well-suited for evaluation using SCM.

Survival and HIV-Free Survival Among Children Aged ≤3 Years - Eight Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2017.

Although mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is preventable through antiretroviral treatment (ART) during pregnancy and postpartum, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates that 160,000 new HIV infections occurred among children in 2018 (1). Child survival and HIV-free survival rates* are standard measures of progress toward eliminating MTCT† (2). Nationally representative Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA)§ survey data, pooled from eight sub-Saharan African countries¶ were used to calculate survival probability among children aged ≤3 years by maternal HIV status during pregnancy and HIV-free survival probability among children aged ≤3 years born to women with HIV infection, stratified by maternal ART** status during pregnancy. Survival probability was significantly lower among children born to women with HIV infection (94.7%) than among those born to women without HIV infection (97.6%). HIV-free survival probability of children born to women with HIV infection differed significantly by the timing of initiation of maternal ART: 93.0% among children whose mothers received ART before pregnancy, 87.8% among those whose mothers initiated ART during pregnancy, and 53.4% among children whose mothers did not receive ART during pregnancy. Focusing on prevention of HIV acquisition and, among women of reproductive age with HIV infection, on early diagnosis of HIV infection and ART initiation when applicable, especially before pregnancy, can improve child survival and HIV-free survival.

Status of HIV Epidemic Control Among Adolescent Girls and Young Women Aged 15-24 Years - Seven African Countries, 2015-2017.

In 2016, an estimated 1.5 million females aged 15-24 years were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in Eastern and Southern Africa, where the prevalence of HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women (3.4%) is more than double that for males in the same age range (1.6%) (1). Progress was assessed toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 2020 targets for adolescent girls and young women in sub-Saharan Africa (90% of those with HIV infection aware of their status, 90% of HIV-infected persons aware of their status on antiretroviral treatment [ART], and 90% of those on treatment virally suppressed [HIV viral load <1,000 HIV RNA copies/mL]) (2) using data from recent Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys in seven countries. The national prevalence of HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years, the percentage who were aware of their status, and among those persons who were aware, the percentage who had achieved viral suppression were calculated. The target for viral suppression among all persons with HIV infection is 73% (the product of 90% x 90% x 90%). Among all seven countries, the prevalence of HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women was 3.6%; among those in this group, 46.3% reported being aware of their HIV-positive status, and 45.0% were virally suppressed. Sustained efforts by national HIV and public health programs to diagnose HIV infection in adolescent girls and young women as early as possible to ensure rapid initiation of ART should help achieve epidemic control among adolescent girls and young women.

Attrition From Human Immunodeficiency Virus Treatment Programs in Africa: A Longitudinal Ecological Analysis Using Data From 307 144 Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy Between 2005 and 2010.

BACKGROUND: As access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa has increased dramatically, concerns have been raised regarding patient attrition, an important measure of program quality. METHODS: We examined aggregate data from 307144 patients initiating ART in 5638 successive cohorts at 638 facilities in 9 African countries from 2005 to 2010, a period characterized by massive treatment expansion. Poisson regression assessed trends in 6- and 12-month cohort attrition (ie, the proportion of patients in each cohort no longer receiving ART at their initiating facility) over calendar time and as ART services matured, and identified factors associated with attrition. RESULTS: Across all 9 countries, 6- and 12-month cohort attrition was 21% and 29%, respectively, with no decrease over calendar time (6-month P = .8735; 12-month P = .5717) or as ART services matured (6-month P = .3005; 12-month P = .2277). Additionally, attrition remained stable or decreased across both measures in nearly all countries. Initiating ART in facilities with more documented transfers and fewer women on ART, and in cohorts with poor CD4 count documentation and lower median CD4 count at ART initiation was associated with increased 6-month attrition. Increased 12-month attrition was observed in semiurban facilities and those with more documented transfers, and in cohorts with poor CD4 count documentation, whereas higher patient load was associated with decreased attrition. CONCLUSIONS: Stable or decreasing trends in attrition for ART patients were observed in most countries, suggesting programs can be expanded without compromising quality. However, further reductions in attrition are needed to maximize individual and population benefits of ART.

A Qualitative Evaluation of the Acceptability of an Interactive Voice Response System to Enhance Adherence to Isoniazid Preventive Therapy Among People Living with HIV in Ethiopia.

Interactive voice response (IVR) is increasingly used to monitor and promote medication adherence. In 2014, we evaluated patient acceptability toward IVR as part of the ENRICH Study, aimed to enhance adherence to isoniazid preventive therapy for tuberculosis prevention among HIV-positive adults in Ethiopia. Qualitative interviews were completed with 30 participants exposed to 2867 IVR calls, of which 24 % were completely answered. Individualized IVR options, treatment education, and time and cost savings facilitated IVR utilization, whereas poor IVR instruction, network and power malfunctions, one-way communication with providers, and delayed clinic follow-up inhibited utilization. IVR acceptability was complicated by HIV confidentiality, mobile phone access and literacy, and patient-provider trust. Incomplete calls likely reminded patients to take medication but were less likely to capture adherence or side effect data. Simple, automated systems that deliver health messages and triage clinic visits appear to be acceptable in this resource-limited setting.

Prevalence, patterns, and correlates of HIV disclosure among TB-HIV patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Lesotho.

Disclosure of HIV-positive status has important implications for patient outcomes and preventing HIV transmission, but has been understudied in TB-HIV patients. We assessed disclosure patterns and correlates of non-disclosure among adult TB-HIV patients initiating ART enrolled in the START Study, a mixed-methods cluster-randomized trial conducted in Lesotho, which evaluated a combination intervention package (CIP) versus standard of care. Interviewer-administered questionnaire data were analyzed to describe patterns of disclosure. Patient-related factors were assessed for association with non-disclosure to anyone other than a health-care provider and primary partners using generalized linear mixed models. Among 371 participants, 95% had disclosed their HIV diagnosis to someone other than a health-care provider, most commonly a spouse/primary partner (76%). Age, TB knowledge, not planning to disclose TB status, greater perceived TB stigma, and CIP were associated with non-disclosure in unadjusted models (p < .1). In adjusted models, all point estimates were similar and greater TB knowledge (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.90) and CIP (aOR 0.20, 95% CI 0.05-0.79) remained statistically significant. Among 220 participants with a primary partner, 76% had disclosed to that partner. Significant correlates of partner non-disclosure (p < .1) in unadjusted analyses included being female, married/cohabitating, electricity at home, not knowing if partner was HIV-positive, and TB knowledge. Adjusted point estimates were largely similar, and being married/cohabitating (aOR 0.03, 95% CI 0.01-0.12), having electricity at home (aOR 0.38, 95% CI 0.17-0.85) and greater TB knowledge (aOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.59-0.98) remained significant. In conclusion, although nearly all participants reported disclosing their HIV status to someone other than a health-care provider at ART initiation, nearly a quarter of participants with a primary partner had not disclosed to their partner. Additional efforts to support HIV disclosure (e.g., counseling) may be needed for TB-HIV patients, particularly for women and those unaware of their partners' status.

HIV retesting among people living with HIV in Lesotho in 2022.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread HIV testing in sub-Saharan Africa, regular testing among at-risk populations is crucial for effective prevention. However, reports increasingly indicate retesting among people living with HIV (PLHIV), a group that would not require additional testing since they would already have received a confirmed diagnosis. We describe the demographic characteristics of PLHIV retesters in Lesotho, report the average number of HIV tests post-diagnosis among PLHIV, and share motivations for retesting. METHODS: In August 2022, a nationally representative cohort in Lesotho participated in a cell phone survey about their HIV status and testing history. Study participants were recruited from a face-to-face survey conducted in 2020, Lesotho Population Based HIV Impact Assessment survey. RESULTS: Of the 1523 participants called, 1111 participants responded (72.9%) and 266 reported living with HIV. We found 18.8% of people living with HIV (PLHIV) reported retesting at least once for HIV, and 58% of PLHIV who reported retesting were likely or very likely to retest for HIV in the coming year. The main reason PLHIV reported retesting was because a health care worker offered the test (61.7%) followed by self-initiated testing to confirm their status (29.1%). Among male PLHIV who had a history of retesting, 92.0% were very likely or likely to retest, compared to only 30.6% of female PLHIV. CONCLUSION: We found almost a fifth of PLHIV in Lesotho reported a history of retesting for HIV, and 58% of PLHIV were likely or very likely to retest for HIV in the coming year. Educating providers and men living with HIV could reduce retesting among PLHIV.

Brief Report: Self-Reported HIV-Positive Status but Subsequent HIV-Negative Test Results in Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Survey Participants-11 Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2015-2018.

BACKGROUND: HIV testing is a critical step to accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART) because early diagnosis can facilitate earlier initiation of ART. This study presents aggregated data of individuals who self-reported being HIV-positive but subsequently tested HIV-negative during nationally representative Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment surveys conducted in 11 countries from 2015 to 2018. METHOD: Survey participants aged 15 years or older were interviewed by trained personnel using a standard questionnaire to determine HIV testing history and self-reported HIV status. Home-based HIV testing and counseling using rapid diagnostic tests with return of results were performed by survey staff according to the respective national HIV testing services algorithms on venous blood samples. Laboratory-based confirmatory HIV testing for all participants identified as HIV-positives and self-reported positives, irrespective of HIV testing results, was conducted and included Geenius HIV-1/2 and DNA polymerase chain reaction if Geenius was negative or indeterminate. RESULTS: Of the 16,630 participants who self-reported as HIV-positive, 16,432 (98.6%) were confirmed as HIV-positive and 198 (1.4%) were HIV-negative by subsequent laboratory-based testing. Participants who self-reported as HIV-positive but tested HIV-negative were significantly younger than 30 years, less likely to have received ART, and less likely to have received a CD4 test compared with participants who self-reported as HIV-positive with laboratory-confirmed infection. CONCLUSIONS: A small proportion of self-reported HIV-positive individuals could not be confirmed as positive, which could be due to initial misdiagnosis, deliberate wrong self-report, or misunderstanding of the questionnaire. As universal ART access is expanding, it is increasingly important to ensure quality of HIV testing and confirmation of HIV diagnosis before ART initiation.

Point of Care CD4 Testing in National Household Surveys - Results and Quality Indicators from Eleven Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) Surveys.

Population-based HIV Impact Assessments (PHIAs) are national household (HH) surveys that provide HIV diagnosis and CD4 testing with an immediate return of results. Accurate CD4 results improve HIV-positive participants' clinical care and inform the effectiveness of HIV programs. Here, we present CD4 results from the PHIA surveys that were conducted in 11 countries in sub-Saharan Africa between 2015 and 2018. All of the HIV-positive participants and 2 to 5% of the HIV-negative participants were offered Pima CD4 (Abbott, IL, USA) point-of-care (POC) tests. The quality of the CD4 test was ensured by conducting instrument verification, comprehensive training, quality control, a review of testing errors and an analysis of unweighted CD4 data by HIV status, age, gender, and antiretroviral (ARV) treatment status. Overall, CD4 testing was completed for 23,085 (99.5%) of the 23,209 HIV-positive and 7,329 (2.7%) of the 270,741 negative participants in 11 surveys. The instrument error rate was 11.3% (range, 4.4% to 15.7%). The median CD4 values among HIV-positive and HIV-negative participants (aged 15+) were 468 cells/mm3 (interquartile range [IQR], 307 to 654) and 811 cells/mm3 (IQR, 647 to 1,013), respectively. Among the HIV-positive participants (aged 15+), those with detectable ARVs had higher CD4 values (508 cells/mm3) than those with undetectable ARVs (385.5 cells/mm3). Among the HIV-positive participants (aged 15+), 11.4% (2,528/22,253) had a CD4 value of less than 200 cells/mm3, and approximately half of them (1,225/2,528 = 48.5%) had detectable ARVs, whereas 51.5% (1,303/2,528) had no detectable ARVs (P < 0.0001). We successfully implemented high quality POC CD4 testing using Pima instruments. Our data come from nationally representative surveys in 11 countries and provide unique insights regarding the CD4 distribution among HIV-positive individuals as well as the baseline CD4 values among HIV-negative individuals. IMPORTANCE The manuscript describes CD4 levels among HIV-positive individuals and baseline CD4 levels among HIV-negative individuals from 11 sub-Saharan countries, thereby highlighting the importance of CD4 markers in the context of the HIV epidemic. Despite increased ARV access in each country, advanced HIV disease (CD4 < 200 cells/mm3) persists among approximately 11% of HIV-positive individuals. Therefore, it is important that our findings are shared with the scientific community to assist with similar implementations of point-of-care testing and to conduct a review of HIV programmatic gaps.

Correcting for selection bias in HIV prevalence estimates: an application of sample selection models using data from population-based HIV surveys in seven sub-Saharan African countries.

INTRODUCTION: Population-based biomarker surveys are the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence but are susceptible to substantial non-participation (up to 30%). Analytical missing data methods, including inverse-probability weighting (IPW) and multiple imputation (MI), are biased when data are missing-not-at-random, for example when people living with HIV more frequently decline participation. Heckman-type selection models can, under certain assumptions, recover unbiased prevalence estimates in such scenarios. METHODS: We pooled data from 142,706 participants aged 15-49 years from nationally representative cross-sectional Population-based HIV Impact Assessments in seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa, conducted between 2015 and 2018 in Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini. We compared sex-stratified HIV prevalence estimates from unadjusted, IPW, MI and selection models, controlling for household and individual-level predictors of non-participation, and assessed the sensitivity of selection models to the copula function specifying the correlation between study participation and HIV status. RESULTS: In total, 84.1% of participants provided a blood sample to determine HIV serostatus (range: 76% in Malawi to 95% in Uganda). HIV prevalence estimates from selection models diverged from IPW and MI models by up to 5% in Lesotho, without substantial precision loss. In Tanzania, the IPW model yielded lower HIV prevalence estimates among males than the best-fitting copula selection model (3.8% vs. 7.9%). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how HIV prevalence estimates from selection models can differ from those obtained under missing-at-random assumptions. Further benefits include exploration of plausible relationships between participation and outcome. While selection models require additional assumptions and careful specification, they are an important tool for triangulating prevalence estimates in surveys with substantial missing data due to non-participation.

Prevalence of and factors associated with late diagnosis of HIV in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe: Results from population-based nationally representative surveys.

INTRODUCTION: Late diagnosis of HIV (LD) increases the risk of morbidity, mortality, and HIV transmission. We used nationally representative data from population-based HIV impact assessment (PHIA) surveys in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (2015-2016) to characterize adults at risk of LD and to examine associations between LD and presumed HIV transmission to cohabiting sexual partners. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of LD, defined as CD4 count <350 cells/µL, among adults newly diagnosed with HIV during the surveys and odds ratios for associated factors. We linked newly diagnosed adults (index cases) to their household sexual partners and calculated adjusted odds ratios for associations between LD of the index case, viral load of the index case, and duration of HIV exposure in the relationship, and the HIV status of the household sexual partner. RESULTS: Of 1,804 adults who were newly diagnosed with HIV in the surveys, 49% (882) were diagnosed late. LD was associated with male sex, older age, and almost five times the odds of having an HIV-positive household sexual partner (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 4.65 [95% confidence interval: 2.56-8.45]). Longer duration of HIV exposure in a relationship and higher viral load of the index case were both independently associated with higher odds of having HIV-positive household sexual partners. Individuals with HIV exposure of more than 5 years had more than three times (aOR 3.42 [95% CI: 1.63-7.18]) higher odds of being HIV positive than those with less than 2 years HIV exposure. The odds of being HIV positive were increased in individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of 400-3499 copies/mL (aOR 4.06 [95% CI 0.45-36.46]), 3,500-9,999 copies/mL (aOR 11.32 [95% CI: 4.08-31.39]), 10,000-49,999 copies/mL (aOR 17.07 [95% CI: 9.18-31.72]), and ≥50,000 copies/mL (aOR 28.41 [95% CI: 12.18-66.28]) compared to individuals who were in a relationship with an index case with a viral load of <400 copies/mL. CONCLUSIONS: LD remains a challenge in Southern Africa and is strongly associated with presumed HIV transmission to household sexual partners. Our study underscores the need for earlier HIV diagnosis, particularly among men and older adults, and the importance of index testing.

Evaluating Nonresponse Weighting Adjustment for the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment Surveys on Incorporating Survey Outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The nonresponse weighting adjustment of the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys uses the weighting class method in combination with a tree analysis to identify predictors significant to response propensity. Variable selection for this type of nonresponse adjustment identifies auxiliary variables correlated with response propensity alone and produces 1 set of weights applicable for all analyses of the survey data. An alternative approach identifies auxiliary variables correlated to both the response probability and selected key outcome variables. This approach may identify a different set of variables for the nonresponse adjustments and may produce more efficient estimates for the key outcome variables. SETTING: The PHIA surveys from 2016 to 2017. METHODS: Weighting class, joint-classification, and two-step modeling. RESULTS: There was little difference among estimates produced by the alternative weighting methods and the PHIA estimates. The joint-classification method produced more efficient estimates (ie, smaller design effects) compared with the PHIA method, while the two-step method was inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: The efficiency of the estimates produced by the PHIA weighting method closely resembles those specifically targeted at key survey outcomes and serves well as a multipurpose weight.

DEALING WITH INACCURATE MEASURES OF SIZE IN TWO-STAGE PROBABILITY PROPORTIONAL TO SIZE SAMPLE DESIGNS: APPLICATIONS IN AFRICAN HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS.

The units at the early stages of multi-stage area samples are generally sampled with probabilities proportional to their estimated sizes (PPES). With such a design, an overall equal probability (EP) sample design would yield a constant number of final stage units from each final stage cluster if the measures of size used in the PPES selection at each sampling stage were directly proportional to the number of final stage units. However, there are often sizable relative differences between the measures of size used in the PPES selections and the number of final stage units. Two common approaches for dealing with these differences are: (1) to retain a self-weighting sample design, allowing the sample sizes to vary across the sampled primary sampling units (PSUs) and (2) to retain the fixed sample size in each PSU and to compensate for the unequal selection probabilities by weighting adjustments in the analyses. This article examines these alternative designs in the context of two-stage sampling in which PSUs are sampled with PPES at the first stage, and an equal probability sample of final stage units is selected from each sampled PSU at the second stage. Two-stage sample designs of this type are used for household surveys in many countries. The discussion is illustrated with data from the Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys that were conducted using this design in several African countries.

Data Architecture to Support Real-Time Data Analytics for the Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments.

BACKGROUND AND SETTING: Electronic data capture facilitates timely use of data. Population-based HIV impact assessments (PHIAs) were led by host governments, with funding from the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, technical assistance from the Centers for Disease Control, and implementation support from ICAP at Columbia University. We described data architectures, code-based processes, and resulting data volume and quality for 14 national PHIA surveys with concurrent timelines and varied country-level data governance (2015-2020). METHODS: PHIA project data were collected through tablets, point-of-care and laboratory testing instruments, and inventory management systems, using open-source software, vendor solutions, and custom-built software. Data were securely uploaded to the PHIA data warehouse daily or weekly and then used to populate survey-monitoring dashboards and return timely laboratory-based test results on an ongoing basis. Automated data processing allowed timely reporting of survey results. RESULTS: Fourteen data architectures were successfully established, and data from more than 450,000 participants in 30,000 files across 13 countries with completed PHIAs, and blood draws producing approximately 6000 aliquots each week per country, were securely collected, transmitted, and processed by 17 full-time equivalent staff. More than 25,600 viral load results were returned to clinics of participants' choice. Data cleaning was not needed for 98.5% of household and 99.2% of individual questionnaires. CONCLUSION: The PHIA data architecture permitted secure, simultaneous collection and transmission of high-quality interview and biomarker data across multiple countries, quick turnaround time of laboratory-based biomarker results, and rapid dissemination of survey outcomes to guide President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief epidemic control.

Improving Sampling Efficiency for Determining Pediatric HIV Prevalence in National Surveys: Evidence From 8 Sub-Saharan African Countries.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of mother-to-child HIV transmission through population-based surveys requires large sample sizes because of low HIV prevalence among children. We estimate potential improvements in sampling efficiency resulting from a targeted sample design. SETTING: Eight countries in sub-Saharan Africa with completed Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (PHIA) surveys as of 2017. METHODS: The PHIA surveys used a geographically stratified 2-stage sample design with households sampled from randomly selected census enumeration areas. Children (0-14 years of age) were eligible for HIV testing within a random subsample of households (usually 50%). Estimates of child HIV prevalence in each country were calculated using jackknife replicate weights. We compared sample sizes and precision achieved using this design with a 2-phase disproportionate sample design applied to strata defined by maternal HIV status and mortality. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among children ranged from 0.4% (95% confidence interval: 0.2 to 0.6) in Tanzania to 2.8% (95% confidence interval: 2.2 to 3.4) in Eswatini with achieved relative standard errors between 11% and 21%. The expected precision improved in the targeted design in all countries included in the analysis, with proportionate reductions in mean squared error ranging from 27% in Eswatini to 61% in Tanzania, assuming an equal sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Population-based surveys of adult HIV prevalence that also measure child HIV prevalence should consider targeted sampling of children to reduce required sample size, increase precision, and increase the number of positive children tested. The findings from the PHIA surveys can be used as baseline data for informing future sample designs.

Opportunities for Closing the Gap in HIV Diagnosis, Treatment, and Viral Load Suppression in Children in Malawi: Results From a 2015-2016 Population-based HIV Impact Assessment Survey.

BACKGROUND: Control of the pediatric HIV epidemic is hampered by gaps in diagnosis and linkage to effective treatment. The 2015-2016 Malawi Population-based HIV impact assessment data were analyzed to identify gaps in pediatric HIV diagnosis, treatment, and viral load suppression. METHODS: In half of the surveyed households, children ages ≥18 months to <15 years were tested using the national HIV rapid test algorithm. Children ≤18 months reactive by the initial rapid test underwent HIV total nucleic acid polymerase chain reaction confirmatory testing. Blood from HIV-positive children was tested for viral load (VL) and presence of antiretroviral drugs. HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment (ART) use were defined using guardian-reporting or antiretroviral detection. RESULTS: Of the 6166 children tested, 99 were HIV-positive for a prevalence of 1.5% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.1-1.9) and 8.0% (95% CI: 5.6-10.5) among HIV-exposed children. The prevalence of 1.5% was extrapolated to a national estimate of 119,501 (95% CI: 89,028-149,974) children living with HIV (CLHIV), of whom, 30.7% (95% CI: 20.3-41.1) were previously undiagnosed. Of the 69.3% diagnosed CLHIV, 86.1% (95% CI: 76.8-95.6) were on ART and 57.9% (95% CI: 41.4-74.4) of those on ART had suppressed VL (<1000 HIV RNA copies/mL). Among all CLHIV, irrespective of HIV diagnosis or ART use, 57.7% (95% CI: 45.0-70.5) had unsuppressed VL. CONCLUSIONS: Critical gaps in HIV diagnosis in children persist in Malawi. The large proportion of CLHIV with unsuppressed VL reflects gaps in diagnosis and need for more effective first- and second-line ART regimens and adherence interventions.

Progress Toward the 90-90-90 HIV Targets in Zimbabwe and Identifying Those Left Behind.

OBJECTIVE: We present findings from the nationally representative Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment that characterize Zimbabwe's progress toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 targets. DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional household survey. METHODS: Consenting adults and children in the household were eligible to participate in Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (October 2015-August 2016). Participants completed face-to-face interviews and provided blood for HIV, CD4, viral load, and syphilis testing. Viral load suppression (VLS) was defined as HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL. HIV-positive specimens were tested for the presence of selected antiretroviral drugs. Data were weighted. Analysis was restricted to HIV-positive adults aged 15-64 years. RESULTS: We enrolled 11,098 men and 14,033 women aged 15-64 years. HIV prevalence was 14.1%. Of those living with HIV, 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 74.9 to 78.7) were aware of their HIV status or had detectable antiretroviral levels. Of these, 88.4% (95% CI: 87.1 to 89.7) were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART), and of these people, 85.3% (95% CI: 83.4 to 87.1) had VLS. Male sex age 15-34 years and having 1 or more sexual partners were associated with being unaware of one's HIV-positive status. Age <50 years and not taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being less likely to be being both aware and taking ART. Male sex, age <50 years, and taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being on ART but not having VLS. CONCLUSIONS: Zimbabwe has made great strides toward epidemic control. Focusing resources on case finding, particularly among men, people aged <35 years, and sexually active individuals can help Zimbabwe attain 90-90-90 targets.

Successful Use of Near Point-of-Care Early Infant Diagnosis in NAMPHIA to Improve Turnaround Times in a National Household Survey.

BACKGROUND: In the population-based HIV impact assessment surveys, early infant diagnosis (EID) was provided to infants <18 months without a prior diagnosis. For the Namibia population-based HIV impact assessment (NAMPHIA), the GeneXpert platform was assessed for the feasibility of near POC EID testing compared with the standard Roche COBAS AmpliPrep/COBAS TaqMan (CAP/CTM) platform. Quality assurance measures and turnaround time were compared to improve EID results reporting. METHODS: NAMPHIA participants were screened for HIV exposure using Determine HIV-1/2 rapid test; samples reactive on Determine received EID testing on the GeneXpert instrument and Xpert HIV-1 Qual assay using whole blood. Results were confirmed at the Namibia Institute of Pathology using dried blood spots on the Roche CAP/CTM platform per national guidelines. RESULTS: Of the 762 screened infants, 61 (8.0%) were Determine-reactive and considered HIV-exposed. Of the 61 exposed infants, 2 were found to be HIV-infected whereas 59 were negative on both GeneXpert and Roche platforms, achieving 100% concordance. Average turnaround time was 3.4 days for the Xpert HIV-1 Qual assay, and average time from collection to testing was 1.0 days for GeneXpert compared with 10.7 days for Roche. No samples failed using GeneXpert whereas 1 sample failed using Roche and was repeated. CONCLUSION: Quality POC EID testing is feasible in a national survey through extensive training and external quality assurance measures. The use of decentralized POC EID for national testing would provide rapid diagnosis and improve TATs which may prevent loss to follow-up, ensure linkage to care, and improve clinical outcomes for infants.

HIV incidence, viremia, and the national response in Eswatini: Two sequential population-based surveys.

With the highest HIV incidence and prevalence globally, the government of Eswatini started a substantial scale-up of HIV treatment and prevention services in 2011. Two sequential large population-based surveys were conducted before and after service expansion to assess the impact of the national response. Cross-sectional, household-based, nationally representative samples of adults, ages 18 to 49 years, were sampled in 2011 and 2016. We measured HIV prevalence, incidence (recent infection based on limiting antigen ≤1.5 optical density units and HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL), viral load suppression (HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL among all seropositive adults) and unsuppressed viremia (HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL among all, regardless of HIV status) and assessed for temporal changes by conducting a trend analysis of the log ratio of proportions, using a Z statistic distribution. HIV prevalence remained stable from 2011 to 2016 [32% versus 30%, p = 0.10]. HIV incidence significantly declined 48% [2.48% versus 1.30%, p = 0.01]. Incidence remained higher among women than men [2011: 3.16% versus 1.83%; 2016: 1.76% versus 0.86%], with a smaller but significant relative reduction among women [44%; p = 0.04] than men [53%; p = 0.09]. The proportion of seropositive adults with viral load suppression significantly increased from 35% to 71% [p < .001]. The proportion of the total adult population with unsuppressed viremia decreased from 21% to 9% [p < .001]. National HIV incidence in Eswatini decreased by nearly half and viral load suppression doubled over a five-year period. Unsuppressed viremia in the total population decreased 58%. These population-based findings demonstrate the national impact of expanded HIV services in a hyperendemic country.

Population-Based HIV Impact Assessments Survey Methods, Response, and Quality in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: The population-based HIV impact assessment (population-based HIV impact assessments) surveys are among the first to estimate national adult HIV incidence, subnational prevalence of viral load suppression, and pediatric HIV prevalence. We summarize the survey methods implemented in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia, as well as response rates and quality metrics. METHODS: Each cross-sectional, household-based survey used a 2-stage cluster design. Survey preparations included sample design, questionnaire development, tablet programming for informed consent and data collection, community mobilization, establishing a network of satellite laboratories, and fieldworker training. Interviewers collected demographic, behavioral, and clinical information using tablets. Blood was collected for home-based HIV testing and counseling (HBTC) and point-of-care CD4+ T-cell enumeration with results immediately returned. HIV-positive blood samples underwent laboratory-based confirmatory testing, HIV incidence testing, RNA polymerase chain reaction (viral load), DNA polymerase chain reaction (early infant diagnosis), and serum antiretroviral drug detection. Data were weighted for survey design, and chi square automatic interaction detection-based methods were used to adjust for nonresponse. RESULTS: Each survey recruited a nationally representative, household-based sample of children and adults over a 6-10-month period in 2015 and 2016. Most (84%-90%) of the 12,000-14,000 eligible households in each country participated in the survey, with 77%-81% of eligible adults completing an interview and providing blood for HIV testing. Among eligible children, 59%-73% completed HIV testing. Across the 3 surveys, 97.8% of interview data were complete and had no errors. CONCLUSION: Conducting a national population-based HIV impact assessment with immediate return of HIV and other point-of-care test results was feasible, and data quality was high.