Evidence that an intervention weakens the relationship between adolescent electronic cigarette use and tobacco smoking: a 24-month prospective study.

BACKGROUND: The electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use to subsequent smoking relationship in adolescents has received much attention. Whether an intervention to reduce smoking initiation attenuated this relationship was assessed. METHOD: Data were from 3994 adolescent never smokers (aged 13-14 years at baseline) as part of a cluster randomised controlled trial. Self-report measures of smoking, e-cigarette use and covariates were assessed and used to predict ever smoked cigarettes, any recent tobacco smoking and regularly smoked cigarettes at 24-month follow-up. RESULTS: Baseline ever use of e-cigarettes was associated with ever smoked cigarettes (OR=4.03, 95% CI 3.33 to 4.88; controlling for covariates, OR=2.78, 95% CI 2.20 to 3.51), any recent tobacco smoking (OR=3.38, 95% CI 2.72 to 4.21; controlling for covariates, OR=2.17, 95% CI 1.76 to 2.69) and regularly smoked cigarettes (OR=3.60, 95% CI 2.35 to 5.51; controlling for covariates, OR=1.27, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.39) at follow-up. For ever smoked cigarettes only, the impact of e-cigarette use was attenuated in the intervention (OR=1.83) compared with control (OR=4.53) condition. For ever smoked cigarettes and any recent tobacco smoking, the impact of e-cigarette use was attenuated among those with friends who smoked (OR=2.05 (ever smoked); 1·53 (any tobacco use)) compared with those without friends who smoked (OR=3.32 (ever smoked); 2·17 (any tobacco use)). CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the first studies to show that e-cigarette use was robustly associated with measures of smoking over 24 months and the first to show an intervention to attenuate the relationship. Further research with a broader age range of adolescents is required.

Cefiderocol for treating severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections: technology evaluation to inform a novel subscription-style payment model.

Background: To limit the use of antimicrobials without disincentivising the development of novel antimicrobials, there is interest in establishing innovative models that fund antimicrobials based on an evaluation of their value as opposed to the volumes used. The aim of this project was to evaluate the population-level health benefit of cefiderocol in the NHS in England, for the treatment of severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections when used within its licensed indications. The results were used to inform the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance in support of commercial discussions regarding contract value between the manufacturer and NHS England. Methods: The health benefit of cefiderocol was first derived for a series of high-value clinical scenarios. These represented uses that were expected to have a significant impact on patients' mortality risks and health-related quality of life. The clinical effectiveness of cefiderocol relative to its comparators was estimated by synthesising evidence on susceptibility of the pathogens of interest to the antimicrobials in a network meta-analysis. Patient-level costs and health outcomes of cefiderocol under various usage scenarios compared with alternative management strategies were quantified using decision modelling. Results were reported as incremental net health effects expressed in quality-adjusted life-years, which were scaled to 20-year population values using infection number forecasts based on data from Public Health England. The outcomes estimated for the high-value clinical scenarios were extrapolated to other expected uses for cefiderocol. Results: Among Enterobacterales isolates with the metallo-beta-lactamase resistance mechanism, the base-case network meta-analysis found that cefiderocol was associated with a lower susceptibility relative to colistin (odds ratio 0.32, 95% credible intervals 0.04 to 2.47), but the result was not statistically significant. The other treatments were also associated with lower susceptibility than colistin, but the results were not statistically significant. In the metallo-beta-lactamase Pseudomonas aeruginosa base-case network meta-analysis, cefiderocol was associated with a lower susceptibility relative to colistin (odds ratio 0.44, 95% credible intervals 0.03 to 3.94), but the result was not statistically significant. The other treatments were associated with no susceptibility. In the base case, patient-level benefit of cefiderocol was between 0.02 and 0.15 quality-adjusted life-years, depending on the site of infection, the pathogen and the usage scenario. There was a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the benefits of cefiderocol across all subgroups. There was substantial uncertainty in the number of infections that are suitable for treatment with cefiderocol, so population-level results are presented for a range of scenarios for the current infection numbers, the expected increases in infections over time and rates of emergence of resistance. The population-level benefits varied substantially across the base-case scenarios, from 896 to 3559 quality-adjusted life-years over 20 years. Conclusion: This work has provided quantitative estimates of the value of cefiderocol within its areas of expected usage within the NHS. Limitations: Given existing evidence, the estimates of the value of cefiderocol are highly uncertain. Future work: Future evaluations of antimicrobials would benefit from improvements to NHS data linkages; research to support appropriate synthesis of susceptibility studies; and application of routine data and decision modelling to assess enablement value. Study registration: No registration of this study was undertaken. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment Policy Research Programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR135591), conducted through the Policy Research Unit in Economic Methods of Evaluation in Health and Social Care Interventions, PR-PRU-1217-20401, and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 28. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

This project tested new methods for estimating the value to the NHS of an antimicrobial, cefiderocol, so its manufacturer could be paid fairly even if very little drug is used in order to reduce the risk of bacteria becoming resistant to the product. Clinicians said that the greatest benefit of cefiderocol is when used for complicated urinary tract infections and pneumonia acquired within hospitals caused by two types of bacteria (called Enterobacterales and Pseudomonas aeruginosa), with a resistance mechanism called metallo-beta-lactamase. Because there were no relevant clinical trial data, we estimated how effective cefiderocol and alternative treatments were by doing a systematic literature review of studies that grew bacteria from infections in the laboratory and tested the drugs on them. We linked this to data estimating the long-term health and survival of patients. Some evidence was obtained by asking clinicians detailed questions about what they thought the effects would be based on their experience and the available evidence. We included the side effects of the alternative treatments, some of which can cause kidney damage. We estimated how many infections there would be in the UK, whether they would increase over time and how resistance to treatments may change over time. Clinicians told us that they would also use cefiderocol to treat intra-abdominal and bloodstream infections, and some infections caused by another bacteria called Stenotrophomonas. We estimated how many of these infections there would be, and assumed the same health benefits as for other types of infections. The total value to the NHS was calculated using these estimates. We also considered whether we had missed any additional elements of value. We estimated that the value to the NHS was £18­71 million over 20 years. This reflects the maximum the NHS could pay for use of cefiderocol if the health lost as a result of making these payments rather than funding other NHS services is not to exceed the health benefits of using this antimicrobial. However, these estimates are uncertain due to limitations with the evidence used to produce them and assumptions that had to be made.

Concomitant health benefits package design and research prioritisation: development of a new approach and an application to Malawi.

Health benefits packages (HBPs) are increasingly used in many countries to guide spending priorities on the path towards universal health coverage. Their design is, however, informed by an uncertain evidence base but research funds available to address this are limited. This gives rise to the question of which piece of research relating to the cost-effectiveness of interventions would most contribute to improving resource allocation. We propose to incorporate research prioritisation as an integral part of HBP design. We have, therefore, developed a framework and a freely available companion stand-alone tool, to quantify in terms of net disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, the value of research for the interventions considered for inclusion in a package. Using the tool, the framework can be implemented using sensitivity analysis results typically reported in cost-effectiveness studies. To illustrate the framework, we applied the tool to the evidence base that informed the Malawi Health Sector Strategic Plan 2017-2022. Out of 21 interventions considered, 8 investment decisions were found to be uncertain and three showed strong potential for research to generate large health gains: 'male circumcision', 'community-management of acute malnutrition in children' and 'isoniazid preventive therapy in HIV +individuals', with a potential to avert up to 65 762, 36 438 and 20 132 net DALYs, respectively. Our work can help set research priorities in resource-constrained settings so that research funds are invested where they have the largest potential to impact on the population health generated via HBPs.

Non-invasive imaging software to assess the functional significance of coronary stenoses: a systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: QAngio® XA 3D/QFR® (three-dimensional/quantitative flow ratio) imaging software (Medis Medical Imaging Systems BV, Leiden, the Netherlands) and CAAS® vFFR® (vessel fractional flow reserve) imaging software (Pie Medical Imaging BV, Maastricht, the Netherlands) are non-invasive technologies to assess the functional significance of coronary stenoses, which can be alternatives to invasive fractional flow reserve assessment. OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of all evidence on QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR, including diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness, implementation and economic analyses. We searched MEDLINE and other databases to January 2020 for studies where either technology was used and compared with fractional flow reserve in patients with intermediate stenosis. The risk of bias was assessed with quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies. Meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy were performed. Clinical and implementation outcomes were synthesised narratively. A simulation study investigated the clinical impact of using QAngio XA 3D/QFR. We developed a de novo decision-analytic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR relative to invasive fractional flow reserve or invasive coronary angiography alone. Scenario analyses were undertaken to explore the robustness of the results to variation in the sources of data used to populate the model and alternative assumptions. RESULTS: Thirty-nine studies (5440 patients) of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and three studies (500 patients) of CAAS vFFR were included. QAngio XA 3D/QFR had good diagnostic accuracy to predict functionally significant fractional flow reserve (≤ 0.80 cut-off point); contrast-flow quantitative flow ratio had a sensitivity of 85% (95% confidence interval 78% to 90%) and a specificity of 91% (95% confidence interval 85% to 95%). A total of 95% of quantitative flow ratio measurements were within 0.14 of the fractional flow reserve. Data on the diagnostic accuracy of CAAS vFFR were limited and a full meta-analysis was not feasible. There were very few data on clinical and implementation outcomes. The simulation found that quantitative flow ratio slightly increased the revascularisation rate when compared with fractional flow reserve, from 40.2% to 42.0%. Quantitative flow ratio and fractional flow reserve resulted in similar numbers of subsequent coronary events. The base-case cost-effectiveness results showed that the test strategy with the highest net benefit was invasive coronary angiography with confirmatory fractional flow reserve. The next best strategies were QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR (without fractional flow reserve). However, the difference in net benefit between this best strategy and the next best was small, ranging from 0.007 to 0.012 quality-adjusted life-years (or equivalently £140-240) per patient diagnosed at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. LIMITATIONS: Diagnostic accuracy evidence on CAAS vFFR, and evidence on the clinical impact of QAngio XA 3D/QFR, were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Quantitative flow ratio as measured by QAngio XA 3D/QFR has good agreement and diagnostic accuracy compared with fractional flow reserve and is preferable to standard invasive coronary angiography alone. It appears to have very similar cost-effectiveness to fractional flow reserve and, therefore, pending further evidence on general clinical benefits and specific subgroups, could be a reasonable alternative. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of CAAS vFFR are uncertain. Randomised controlled trial evidence evaluating the effect of quantitative flow ratio on clinical and patient-centred outcomes is needed. FUTURE WORK: Studies are required to assess the diagnostic accuracy and clinical feasibility of CAAS vFFR. Large ongoing randomised trials will hopefully inform the clinical value of QAngio XA 3D/QFR. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154575. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 56. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Stable angina is a type of chest pain; left untreated, it can lead to heart failure, heart attack and sudden death. To avoid these outcomes, patients may require surgical intervention to open obstructed arteries, known as 'revascularisation'. Patients who might need revascularisation undergo tests to identify blocked arteries. The last line of testing is called invasive fractional flow reserve assessment. This is an invasive measurement of blood flow that involves inserting a wire into an artery after the patient has taken drugs to dilate the artery. It carries some risks and may have side effects. Non-invasive tests have been proposed to precede or replace invasive fractional flow reserve assessments. These include QAngio^® XA 3D/QFR^® (three-dimensional/quantitative flow ratio) (Medis Medical Imaging Systems BV, Leiden, the Netherlands) and CAAS^® vFFR^® (vessel fractional flow reserve) (Pie Medical Imaging BV, Maastricht, the Netherlands) imaging software. This project investigated whether or not these technologies can provide accurate assessments of blood pressure, and if they are a reasonable use of NHS resources. A thorough review of all the literature on the technologies was performed. All data were combined and re-analysed to determine whether or not the tests accurately predict the need for revascularisation and to consider their clinical benefits. An economic analysis was conducted to investigate whether or not using either of these technologies is economically viable. The project found that QAngio XA 3D/QFR can accurately measure blood flow, may be a reasonable alternative to fractional flow reserve, pending more evidence on benefits to patients' health, and is a reasonable use of NHS resources. The current evidence for CAAS vFFR is too limited to draw any firm conclusions.

Practical metrics for establishing the health benefits of research to support research prioritisation.

INTRODUCTION: We present practical metrics for estimating the expected health benefits of specific research proposals. These can be used by research funders, researchers and healthcare decision-makers within low-income and middle-income countries to support evidence-based research prioritisation. METHODS: The methods require three key assessments: (1) the current level of uncertainty around the endpoints the proposed study will measure; (2) how uncertainty impacts on the health benefits and costs of healthcare programmes and (3) the health opportunity costs imposed by programme costs. Research is valuable because it can improve health by informing the choice of which programmes should be implemented. We provide a Microsoft Excel tool to allow readers to generate estimates of the health benefits of research studies based on these three assessments. The tool can be populated using existing studies, existing cost-effectiveness models and expert opinion. Where such evidence is not available, the tool can quantify the value of research under different assumptions. Estimates of the health benefits of research can be considered alongside research costs, and the consequences of delaying implementation until research reports, to determine whether research is worthwhile. We illustrate the method using a case study of research on HIV self-testing programmes in Malawi. This analysis combines data from the literature with outputs from the HIV synthesis model. RESULTS: For this case study, we found a costing study that could be completed and inform decision making within 1 year offered the highest health benefits (67 000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted). Research on outcomes improved population health to a lesser extent (12 000 DALYs averted) and only if carried out alongside programme implementation. CONCLUSION: Our work provides a method for estimating the health benefits of research in a practical and timely fashion. This can be used to support accountable use of research funds.

Brodalumab for the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Plaque Psoriasis: An Evidence Review Group Evaluation of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

As part of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence single technology appraisal process, brodalumab was assessed to determine the clinical and cost effectiveness of its use in the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis. The Centre for Reviews and Dissemination and the Centre for Health Economics Technology Assessment Group at the University of York were commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group. This article provides a summary of the Evidence Review Group's review of the company's submission, the Evidence Review Group report and the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Appraisal Committee's subsequent guidance issued in March 2018. The main clinical effectiveness data were derived from three well-conducted, multicentre, double-blind randomised controlled trials. The trials demonstrated that brodalumab statistically significantly reduced the severity of psoriasis and its impact on health-related quality of life, compared with placebo, at 12 weeks. In comparison with ustekinumab, statistically significantly more patients taking brodalumab had reduced psoriasis severity at 12 weeks. Psoriasis severity and quality of life also appeared improved at 52 weeks, although statistical significance was not assessed. Withdrawal rates were comparable to drug survival rates of other biological therapies and rates of adverse events were similar between brodalumab and ustekinumab. A network meta-analysis was presented, comparing brodalumab with other therapies available at the same point in the treatment pathway (i.e. in patients for whom standard systemic therapy or phototherapy is inadequately effective, not tolerated or contraindicated). The network meta-analysis ranked treatments in order of effectiveness, in terms of achieving different levels of Psoriasis Area and Severity Index response. The results indicated that brodalumab had a similar probability of response to ixekizumab, secukinumab and infliximab and a higher probability of response than ustekinumab, adalimumab, etanercept, apremilast, dimethyl fumarate and placebo. The company's economic model compared nine treatment sequences that included three lines of active therapy, consisting of brodalumab and other comparators recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, followed by best supportive care. The sequence with brodalumab in the first-line position dominated sequences that started with adalimumab, infliximab, secukinumab and ustekinumab. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the brodalumab sequence compared to less effective and non-dominated sequences ranged from £7145 (vs. the etanercept sequence) to £13,353 (vs. the dimethyl fumarate sequence) per quality-adjusted life-year gained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the more costly and effective ixekizumab sequence was £894,010 per quality-adjusted life-year gained compared to the brodalumab sequence. At a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, the brodalumab sequence had the highest probability of being cost effective (96%). The main limitation of the company's economic model was the restrictive nature of the sequences compared. Twelve separate scenarios based on key uncertainties were explored by the Evidence Review Group. The only scenarios where brodalumab was ranked lower than first were not considered to be more appropriate or plausible than the assumptions or scenarios included in the company's base case. The treatment rankings identified in the Evidence Review Group's alternative base case were identical to those derived from the company's base case model. At the first National Institute for Health and Care Excellence Appraisal Committee meeting, the Committee concluded that brodalumab appears to be as effective as other anti-interleukin-17 agents and is cost effective, based on the discount agreed in the patient access scheme. Brodalumab is recommended as an option for treating adults with severe plaque psoriasis (defined by a total Psoriasis Area and Severity Index score of 10 or more and a Dermatology Life Quality Index score of more than 10) who have not responded to other systemic non-biological therapies. Brodalumab should be stopped at 12 weeks if the psoriasis has not responded adequately.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of repeated implementation intention formation on adolescent smoking initiation: A cluster randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: Forming implementation intentions (if-then plans) about how to refuse cigarette offers plus antismoking messages was tested for reducing adolescent smoking. METHOD: Cluster randomized controlled trial with schools randomized (1:1) to receive implementation intention intervention and messages targeting not smoking (intervention) or completing homework (control). Adolescents (11-12 years at baseline) formed implementation intentions and read messages on 8 occasions over 4 years meaning masking treatment allocation was not possible. Outcomes were: follow-up (48 months) ever smoking, any smoking in last 30 days, regular smoking, and breath carbon monoxide levels. Analyses excluded baseline ever smokers, controlled for clustering by schools and examined effects of controlling for demographic variables. Economic evaluation (incremental cost effectiveness ratio; ICER) was conducted. Trial is registered (ISRCTN27596806). RESULTS: Schools were randomly allocated (September-October 2012) to intervention (n = 25) or control (n = 23). At follow-up, among 6,155 baseline never smokers from 45 retained schools, ever smoking was significantly lower (RR = 0.83, 95% CI [0.71, 0.97], p = .016) in intervention (29.3%) compared with control (35.8%) and remained so controlling for demographics. Similar patterns observed for any smoking in last 30 days. Less consistent effects were observed for regular smoking and breath carbon monoxide levels. Economic analysis yielded an ICER of $134 per ever smoker avoided at age 15-16 years. CONCLUSIONS: This pragmatic trial supports the use of repeated implementation intentions about how to refuse the offer of a cigarette plus antismoking messages as an effective and cost-effective intervention to reduce smoking initiation in adolescents. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Patterns and predictors of e-cigarette, cigarette and dual use uptake in UK adolescents: evidence from a 24-month prospective study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To assess prevalence and predictors of e-cigarettes/cigarettes patterns of use in adolescents in England. DESIGN: Prospective study with 24-month follow-up of e-cigarette/cigarette ever/regular use with data from an intervention evaluation. SETTING: Forty-five schools in England (Staffordshire and Yorkshire). PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3210 adolescents who, at baseline, were aged 13-14 years and had never used e-cigarettes/cigarettes. MEASUREMENTS: Based on e-cigarette/cigarette ever use at follow-up, six groups were created: (a) never user, (b) e-cigarette only, (c) cigarette only, (d) dual use-order of use unclear, (e) dual use-e-cigarettes used first and (f) dual use-cigarettes used first. Baseline measures were: gender, ethnicity, socio-economic status, impulsivity, family plus friend smoking and smoking-related beliefs (attitude and perceived behavioural control). FINDINGS: In groups (a) to (f), there were 71.5, 13.3, 3.3, 5.7, 2.9 and 3.4% adolescents, respectively. Among groups using cigarettes, regular smoking was more prevalent in group (f) (dual use-cigarettes used first) [17.6%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 10.4, 24.8] than in groups (c), (d) and (e) combined (7.3%, 95% CI = 4.7, 9.9). Among groups using e-cigarettes, regular use was less prevalent in group (b) (e-cigarette only) (1.9%, 95% CI = 0.6, 3.2) than in groups (d), (e) and (f) combined (12.2%, 95% CI = 8.9, 15.5). Higher impulsivity plus friends and family smoking were predictive of being in groups (b) to (f) compared with group (a) (never users). Males were more likely to be in group (b) compared to group (a); females were more likely to be in groups (c) to (f) compared to group (a). CONCLUSIONS: Regular use of e-cigarettes/cigarettes varies across groups defined by ever use of e-cigarettes/cigarettes. Interventions targeted at tackling impulsivity or adolescents whose friends and family members smoke may represent fruitful avenues for future research.

Economic Evaluation of Environmental Interventions: Reflections on Methodological Challenges and Developments.

Evaluation of the costs and outcomes associated with environmental policies and interventions is often required to inform public policy and allocate scarce resources. Methods to conduct assessments of cost-effectiveness have been developed in the context of pharmaceuticals, but have more recently been applied in public health, diagnostics, and other more complex interventions. The suitability of existing economic evaluation methodology has been explored in many contexts, however, this is yet to be undertaken for interventions and policies pertaining to the natural environment, such as urban green spaces and strategies to reduce indoor and outdoor air pollution. To make significant inroads into the evaluation of interventions and policies relating to the natural environment requires an understanding of the challenges faced in this context. Many of these challenges may be practical (data-related), however, a number are also methodological, and thus have implications for the appropriate framework for economic evaluation. This paper considers some of the challenges faced when conducting cost-effectiveness analyses in this context and explores what solutions have been proposed thus far. The intention is to help pave the way for consideration of which existing framework is most appropriate for the evaluation of natural environment (NE) interventions, or if a distinct framework is required. Environmental policies and interventions relating to the built environment, for example, housing, are not explicitly included here.

An intervention to support stroke survivors and their carers in the longer term (LoTS2Care): study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled feasibility trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite the evidence that many stroke survivors report longer term unmet needs, the provision of longer term care is limited. To address this, we are conducting a programme of research to develop an evidence-based and replicable longer term care strategy. The developed complex intervention (named New Start), which includes needs identification, exploration of social networks and components of problem solving and self-management, was designed to improve quality of life by addressing unmet needs and increasing participation. METHODS/DESIGN: A multicentre, cluster randomised controlled feasibility trial designed to inform the design of a possible future definitive cluster randomised controlled trial (cRCT) and explore the potential clinical and cost-effectiveness of New Start. Ten stroke services across the UK will be randomised on a 1:1 basis either to implement New Start or continue with usual care only. New Start will be delivered by trained facilitators and will be offered to all stroke survivors within the services allocated to the intervention arm. Stroke survivors will be eligible for the trial if they are 4-6 months post-stroke and residing in the community. Carers (if available) will also be invited to take part. Invitation to participate will be initiated by post and outcome measures will be collected via postal questionnaires at 3, 6 and 9 months after recruitment. Outcome data relating to perceived health and disability, wellbeing and quality of life as well as unmet needs will be collected. A 'study within a trial' (SWAT) is planned to determine the most acceptable format in which to provide the postal questionnaires. Details of health and social care service usage will also be collected to inform the economic evaluation. The feasibility of recruiting services and stroke survivors to the trial and of collecting postal outcomes will be assessed and the potential for effectiveness will be investigated. An embedded process evaluation (reported separately) will assess implementation fidelity and explore and clarify causal assumptions regarding implementation. DISCUSSION: This feasibility trial with embedded process evaluation will allow us to gather important and detailed data regarding methodological and implementation issues to inform the design of a possible future definitive cRCT of this complex intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN38920246 . Registered 22 June 2016.

Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review.

The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies) or Asia (seven studies), whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies), closely followed by flooding (six studies). No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events.

A pharmacoeconomic approach to assessing the costs and benefits of air quality interventions that improve health: a case study.

OBJECTIVE: This paper explores the use of pharmacoeconomic methods of valuation to health impacts resulting from exposure to poor air quality. In using such methods, interventions that reduce exposure to poor air quality can be directly compared, in terms of value for money (or cost-effectiveness), with competing demands for finite resources, including other public health interventions. DESIGN: Using results estimated as part of a health impact assessment regarding a West Yorkshire Low Emission Zone strategy, this paper quantifies cost-saving and health-improving implications of transport policy through its impact on air quality. DATA SOURCE: Estimates of health-related quality of life and the National Health Service (NHS)/Personal Social Services (PSS) costs for identified health events were based on data from Leeds and Bradford using peer-reviewed publications or Office for National Statistics releases. POPULATION: Inhabitants of the area within the outer ring roads of Leeds and Bradford. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: NHS and PSS costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: Averting an all-cause mortality death generates 8.4 QALYs. Each coronary event avoided saves £28 000 in NHS/PSS costs and generates 1.1 QALYs. For every fewer case of childhood asthma, there will be NHS/PSS cost saving of £3000 and a health benefit of 0.9 QALYs. A single term, low birthweight birth avoided saves £2000 in NHS/PSS costs. Preventing a preterm birth saves £24 000 in NHS/PSS costs and generates 1.3 QALYs. A scenario modelled in the West Yorkshire Low Emission Zone Feasibility Study, where pre-EURO 4 buses and HGVs are upgraded to EURO 6 by 2016 generates an annual benefit of £2.08 million and a one-off benefit of £3.3 million compared with a net present value cost of implementation of £6.3 million. CONCLUSIONS: Interventions to improve air quality and health should be evaluated and where improvement of population health is the primary objective, cost-effectiveness analysis using a NHS/PSS costs and QALYs framework is an appropriate methodology.

Capturing ecosystem services, stakeholders' preferences and trade-offs in coastal aquaculture decisions: a Bayesian belief network application.

Aquaculture activities are embedded in complex social-ecological systems. However, aquaculture development decisions have tended to be driven by revenue generation, failing to account for interactions with the environment and the full value of the benefits derived from services provided by local ecosystems. Trade-offs resulting from changes in ecosystem services provision and associated impacts on livelihoods are also often overlooked. This paper proposes an innovative application of Bayesian belief networks - influence diagrams - as a decision support system for mediating trade-offs arising from the development of shrimp aquaculture in Thailand. Senior experts were consulted (n = 12) and primary farm data on the economics of shrimp farming (n = 20) were collected alongside secondary information on ecosystem services, in order to construct and populate the network. Trade-offs were quantitatively assessed through the generation of a probabilistic impact matrix. This matrix captures nonlinearity and uncertainty and describes the relative performance and impacts of shrimp farming management scenarios on local livelihoods. It also incorporates export revenues and provision and value of ecosystem services such as coastal protection and biodiversity. This research shows that Bayesian belief modeling can support complex decision-making on pathways for sustainable coastal aquaculture development and thus contributes to the debate on the role of aquaculture in social-ecological resilience and economic development.