Furthering climate-smart farming with the introduction of floating agriculture in Bangladeshi wetlands: Successes and limitations of an innovation transfer.

Although floating farming, a climate-smart practice, is a response to climate change challenges facing agriculture in wetland areas, the adoption of floating agriculture in Bangladesh wetland areas (also known as Haor) is slow. The purpose of our study was to identify the factors that motivate and barriers that inhibit the adoption of floating agriculture in the Haor region in Bangladesh's Kishoreganj district. To achieve our purpose, we used Roger's five-stage innovation-decision theory. We collected data from a sample of 120 Haor rural farmers using a quantitative questionnaire answered via a personal interview. We used a binary logistic regression to identify the factors that predict farmers' motivational actions in adopting floating agriculture. In addition, we rank ordered the data to identify the obstacles that prohibit farmers from implementing floating agriculture. The results demonstrate that education, training related to floating agriculture, credit received, communication behavior, trialability and observability, and complexity in practicing floating agriculture motivate farmers to adopt floating agriculture. The results also show that climatic factors (e.g., high waves and excessive rainfall, aquatic plant scarcity) and non-climatic factors (e.g., inadequate demonstration plots, conflict, and political power abuse) inhibit adoption of floating agriculture. Our study provides suggestions for increasing farmers' adoption of floating agriculture in wetland areas.

Evaluating and expanding the European Union's protected-area network toward potential post-2020 coverage targets.

The Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) strategic plan will expire in 2020, but biodiversity loss is ongoing. Scientists call for more ambitious targets in the next agreement. The nature-needs-half movement, for example, has advocated conserving half of Earth to solve the biodiversity crisis, which has been translated to protecting 50% of each ecoregion. We evaluated current protection levels of ecoregions in the territory of one of the CBD's signatories, the European Union (EU). We also explored the possible enlargement of the Natura 2000 network to implement 30% or 50% ecoregion coverage in the EU member states' protected area (PA) network. Based on the most recent land-use data, we examined whether ecoregions have enough natural area left to reach such high coverage targets. We used a spatially explicit mixed integer programing model to estimate the least-cost expansion of the PA network based on 3 scenarios that put different emphasis on total conservation cost, ecological representation of ecosystems, or emphasize an equal share of the burden among member states. To realize 30% and 50% ecoregion coverage, the EU would need to add 6.6% and 24.2%, respectively, of its terrestrial area to its PA network. For all 3 scenarios, the EU would need to designate most recommended new PAs in seminatural forests and other semi- or natural ecosystems. Because 15 ecoregions did not have enough natural area left to implement the ecoregion-coverage targets, some member states would also need to establish new PAs on productive land, allocating the largest share to arable land. Thirty percent ecoregion coverage was met by protecting remaining natural areas in all ecoregions except 3, where productive land would also need to be included. Our results support discussions of higher ecoregions protection targets for post-2020 biodiversity frameworks.

Evaluación y Expansión de la Red de Áreas Protegidas de la Unión Europea hacia Objetivos Potenciales de Cobertura Post 2020 Resumen El plan estratégico del Convenio sobre la Diversidad Biológica (CBD) expirará en 2020, pero la pérdida de la biodiversidad continúa. Los científicos exigen objetivos más ambiciosos para el siguiente acuerdo. Por ejemplo, la corriente la-naturaleza-necesita-la-mitad ha abogado por la conservación de la mitad del planeta para resolver la crisis de la biodiversidad, lo que se ha traducido a la protección del 50% de cada ecoregión. Evaluamos los niveles actuales de protección de las ecoregiones en el territorio de uno de los signatarios de la CBD, la Unión Europea (UE). También exploramos el posible crecimiento de la red Natura 2000 para implementar una cobertura del 30% o 50% de las ecoregiones en la red de áreas protegidas (AP) de los estados miembros de la UE. Con base en los datos más recientes de uso de suelo, examinamos si las ecoregiones todavía tienen suficiente área natural como para alcanzar tales objetivos tan altos de cobertura. Usamos un modelo de programación entera mixta espacialmente explícito para estimar la expansión más asequible de la red de AP con base en tres escenarios que colocan un énfasis diferente sobre el costo total de la conservación, la representación ecológica de los ecosistemas o que enfaticen un porcentaje equitativo de la carga entre los estados miembros. Para alcanzar una cobertura del 30% y 50% de las ecoregiones, la UE necesitaría añadir 6.6% y 24.2%, respectivamente, de su área terrestre a la red de AP. Para los tres escenarios, la UE necesitaría designar la mayoría de las nuevas AP recomendadas en bosques seminaturales y en otros ecosistemas semi- o totalmente naturales. Debido a que 15 ecoregiones no tenían ya suficiente área natural para implementar los objetivos de cobertura de ecoregiones, algunos estados miembros también necesitarían establecer nuevas AP en suelo productivo, asignando la proporción mayor al suelo arable. La cobertura del 30% de las ecoregiones se alcanzó con la protección de las áreas naturales permanecientes en todas las ecoregiones salvo tres, en donde el suelo productivo también necesitaría estar incluido. Nuestros resultados respaldan las discusiones sobre objetivos más altos de protección de ecoregiones para los marcos de trabajo post 2020 para la biodiversidad.

Farmer Perceptions of Climate Change, Observed Trends and Adaptation of Agriculture in Pakistan.

Farmers' willingness and ability to adapt agricultural systems depend on their knowledge about changes in climate and perceived risks of extreme events. Using cross-sectional data of 450 farmers collected from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, this study investigates farmer perceptions of climate change and their agreement with observed climatic trends. In addition, this study explores the correlation between different adaptation stages (perceptions, intentions, and adaptation) and their key drivers using a Multivariate Probit Model. This study also explores the adaptation measures adopted by farmers. The results of the study show that the perceptions of increasing mean temperature match well with locally recorded data. However, a discrepancy is found in some cases between farmer perceptions of rainfall changes and local climate records. Moreover, education, experience, land tenure, land holdings, extension, cooperation, access to weather forecasting, and marketing information are the factors influencing the three adaptation stages. A strong association is found among the three adaptation stages. Particularly, the study confirms the hypothesis that accurate perceptions lead to stronger adaptation intentions compared to underestimated or no perceptions. Further, farmers prefer basic adaptation measures including changing crop varieties, input use and planting dates over advanced measures, such as planting shade trees, soil conservation, and crop diversification. The study recommends providing farmers, especially small landholders and tenants, easy access to information, institutional services and training on the use of advanced measures to reduce negative impacts of climate change at the farm level.

Pesticide risk assessment in European agriculture: Distribution patterns, ban-substitution effects and regulatory implications.

This study estimates the risks of agricultural pesticides on non-target organisms and the environment by combining detailed pesticide application data for 2015 with the Danish risk indicator Pesticide Load. We quantify and map the pesticide load of 59 pesticides on 28 crops and pastures in the EU. Furthermore, we investigate how recent bans on 14 pesticides in the EU could reduce pesticide use and load. Key findings show that the highest pesticide loads per hectare occur in Cyprus and the Netherlands due to high application rates and a high proportion of vegetable production. Chlorpyrifos caused the highest pesticide load per hectare on more than half of the assessed crops before its ban. The ban of 14 pesticides between 2018 and 2023 potentially reduced pesticide loads by 94%, but unobserved substitution effects could offset pesticide load reductions. Although bans on active substances are justified to control certain endpoint risks, our results highlight the potential weaknesses of bans that merely shift risks. These findings contribute to the ongoing scientific and societal discourse on efficiently mitigating pesticides' impacts on non-target organisms and the environment. However, to improve the evaluation of pesticide use, it is vital to enhance the reporting on detailed pesticide use for individual crop-pesticide combinations.

A stakeholders' pathway towards a future land use and food system in Germany.

Food systems contribute considerably to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and influence land use. In Germany, many strategies have been proposed by policy-makers to reduce negative impacts and make the food system more sustainable. It is unclear how close the suggested policies, when bundled, will bring the food and land use system towards the targeted goals; and what stakeholders from non-policy-making organizations consider realistic changes in the German food system. We thus surveyed different stakeholder groups on their opinions about realistic changes in the food and land use system in Germany up to 2050, developed four stakeholder pathways, and used an accounting tool to determine the effect of each pathway on indicators such as land use, GHG emissions, and biodiversity conservation potential. The assessment showed that GHG emissions from agricultural activities and land use are reduced from 66 to - 2-22 TgCO2e by 2050, while the area where natural processes predominate increases from 19 to 27-32%, and the resilience of the food system is not negatively influenced. The change is caused mainly by a diet-change-induced reduction of livestock production and agricultural area transformation into areas with higher carbon sequestration rates. If followed, the common stakeholder pathway (based on all stakeholder responses) would thus lead towards a sustainable food and land use system, but only if the underlying assumption of a drastic diet change towards more plant-based products comes true. Stakeholders from the academic and public sectors were more likely to assume that such a change was realistic than stakeholders from the private sector.

Sustainable livelihood capital and climate change adaptation in Pakistan's agriculture: Structural equation modeling analysis in the VIABLE framework.

This study aims to assess the role of sustainable livelihood capital, the mediation of investments and farming purposes, and the moderation of climatic and non-climatic factors in the adaptation process, particularly in the aspects of Crop, Farm, Irrigation, and Economic Management. Moreover, guided by the VIABLE (Values and Investments for Agent-Based Interaction and Learning in Environmental Systems) framework, we analyze stakeholders' actions, priorities, and goals in the climate change adaptation process. A structured questionnaire was designed based on a five-point Likert scale covering the concepts of livelihood capital, climate change adaptation, investment priorities, farming constraints, and farmers' decision-making factors. Field data were collected from 800 farmers during December 2021 to February 2022 in the irrigated agricultural regions in the Indus Plain of the Punjab and Sindh provinces, Pakistan. We employed the Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling approach to the VIABLE framework (VIABLE-SEM) to analyze the collected data. The results confirm livelihood capital as the most significant determinant (beta = 0.57, effect size = 0.503) for farmers' adaptation strategies in the Indus plain. Other variables, such as the principal purpose of farming, available investment options, natural and human constraints, appear less important. We identified 13 significant viability pathways that show investment priorities, farming purposes, and constraints faced by the farmers in climate change adaptation. The study also found that non-climatic factors negatively influence (beta = -0.156) the relationship between capital and adaptation, while climatic factors positively influence (beta = 0.050) this relationship. Interestingly, the presence of these influencing factors increases the adaptive capacity of farmers. These findings have important implications for policymakers and researchers in designing and implementing effective climate change adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector of Pakistan.

Exploring the benefits of inoculated cowpeas under different climatic conditions in Namibia.

Cowpeas (Vigna uniculata L. Walp) are grown by many smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa for food and their ability to fix nitrogen even under stress. Their performance depends on the indigenous rhizobial strains that live in symbiotic association with the roots; it can be enhanced if the seeds are inoculated with more effective ones. Data of the effectiveness of the technique under a variety of climatic conditions is rare. Here, we thus use a model to upscale two field experiments conducted in Namibia to include different climate change scenarios. The simulations show that non-inoculated cowpeas have mean yields of 0.5 t/ha and inoculated cowpeas 1 t/ha. If climatic conditions are favorable (cool and wet), estimated yield differences increase to over 1 t/ha. In dry years (< 200 mm), the average yield difference is only 0.1 t/ha. In the far future (2080-2100), instances of dry and hot years will increase. Using inoculated cowpea seeds instead of non-inoculated ones thus does not benefit farmers as much then as in the near future (2030-2050). In conclusion, using cowpea seeds inoculated with an efficient rhizobial strain can significantly increase yields under varying climatic conditions, but yield advantages decrease markedly in very dry and hot years.

Assessing the long-term effectiveness of Nature-Based Solutions under different climate change scenarios.

Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) have been gaining importance in many European cities to reduce floods' impacts. However, evidence of their effectiveness in reducing the impacts of droughts in rural areas are scarce. Besides, ignoring future climate conditions or the specific socio-economic context in which NBS is applied could decrease their long-term effectiveness. This study aims to stress the importance of developing scientifically-based and customised information on climate change impacts as a precondition for designing and implementing NBS. For that, a System Dynamic model was developed to analyse and understand the dynamic behaviour of NBS responding to different scenarios of climate change and socio-economic contexts. This article recognises the proactive involvement at all societal levels as an essential component to enhance and maintain ecosystem resilience and, therefore, NBS1effectiveness. Thus, participatory modelling activities were carried out to engage stakeholders in the model development process to obtain relevant bottom-up information and organise stakeholders' collective knowledge in a graphical structure that captures the system's main dynamics. The Medina del Campo Groundwater Body was used as a frame for the analysis. The study results highlight the need for developing scientifically-based and customised information on the impacts of climate change on NBS as an essential precondition to maintain their long-term effectiveness.

Increasing social welfare by taxing pesticide externalities in the Indian cotton sector.

BACKGROUND: Pesticide use in the Indian cotton industry has decreased with the introduction of Bt cotton, but rates are still high in comparison with other countries. The adoption of alternative strategies, such as integrated pest management, has been slow, even though benefits are potentially high, more so if the full costs of the external effects of the technologies are taken into account. In order to estimate true societal benefits of different strategies, we compare their external costs and economic performance under external cost taxation, using a state-of-the-art partial equilibrium model of the Indian agricultural sector. RESULTS: Pesticide externalities lower social welfare in the Indian cotton sector by $US 400-2200 million, depending on the technologies employed. A full internalisation reduces producer revenues by $US 100 ha-1 if only Bt cotton is used, and by $US 30 ha-1 if IPM is another option. Consumers do not start to lose surplus until 20-70% are internalised, and losses are smaller if all technologies are available. CONCLUSION: External pesticide costs can be internalised partially without substantially affecting consumer surplus while still increasing social welfare, but producers need to have access to and the knowledge to employ all available cotton production technologies to minimise losses. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.