Predicting adolescent depression and anxiety from multi-wave longitudinal data using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: This study leveraged machine learning to evaluate the contribution of information from multiple developmental stages to prospective prediction of depression and anxiety in mid-adolescence. METHODS: A community sample (N = 374; 53.5% male) of children and their families completed tri-annual assessments across ages 3-15. The feature set included several important risk factors spanning psychopathology, temperament/personality, family environment, life stress, interpersonal relationships, neurocognitive, hormonal, and neural functioning, and parental psychopathology and personality. We used canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to reduce the large feature set to a lower dimensional space while preserving the longitudinal structure of the data. Ablation analysis was conducted to evaluate the relative contributions to prediction of information gathered at different developmental periods and relative to previous disorder status (i.e. age 12 depression or anxiety) and demographics (sex, race, ethnicity). RESULTS: CCA components from individual waves predicted age 15 disorder status better than chance across ages 3, 6, 9, and 12 for anxiety and 9 and 12 for depression. Only the components from age 12 for depression, and ages 9 and 12 for anxiety, improved prediction over prior disorder status and demographics. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that screening for risk of adolescent depression can be successful as early as age 9, while screening for risk of adolescent anxiety can be successful as early as age 3. Assessing additional risk factors at age 12 for depression, and going back to age 9 for anxiety, can improve screening for risk at age 15 beyond knowing standard demographics and disorder history.

World Trade Center responders in their own words: predicting PTSD symptom trajectories with AI-based language analyses of interviews.

BACKGROUND: Oral histories from 9/11 responders to the World Trade Center (WTC) attacks provide rich narratives about distress and resilience. Artificial Intelligence (AI) models promise to detect psychopathology in natural language, but they have been evaluated primarily in non-clinical settings using social media. This study sought to test the ability of AI-based language assessments to predict PTSD symptom trajectories among responders. METHODS: Participants were 124 responders whose health was monitored at the Stony Brook WTC Health and Wellness Program who completed oral history interviews about their initial WTC experiences. PTSD symptom severity was measured longitudinally using the PTSD Checklist (PCL) for up to 7 years post-interview. AI-based indicators were computed for depression, anxiety, neuroticism, and extraversion along with dictionary-based measures of linguistic and interpersonal style. Linear regression and multilevel models estimated associations of AI indicators with concurrent and subsequent PTSD symptom severity (significance adjusted by false discovery rate). RESULTS: Cross-sectionally, greater depressive language (ß = 0.32; p = 0.049) and first-person singular usage (ß = 0.31; p = 0.049) were associated with increased symptom severity. Longitudinally, anxious language predicted future worsening in PCL scores (ß = 0.30; p = 0.049), whereas first-person plural usage (ß = -0.36; p = 0.014) and longer words usage (ß = -0.35; p = 0.014) predicted improvement. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to demonstrate the value of AI in understanding PTSD in a vulnerable population. Future studies should extend this application to other trauma exposures and to other demographic groups, especially under-represented minorities.

Estimating geographic subjective well-being from Twitter: A comparison of dictionary and data-driven language methods.

Researchers and policy makers worldwide are interested in measuring the subjective well-being of populations. When users post on social media, they leave behind digital traces that reflect their thoughts and feelings. Aggregation of such digital traces may make it possible to monitor well-being at large scale. However, social media-based methods need to be robust to regional effects if they are to produce reliable estimates. Using a sample of 1.53 billion geotagged English tweets, we provide a systematic evaluation of word-level and data-driven methods for text analysis for generating well-being estimates for 1,208 US counties. We compared Twitter-based county-level estimates with well-being measurements provided by the Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index survey through 1.73 million phone surveys. We find that word-level methods (e.g., Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count [LIWC] 2015 and Language Assessment by Mechanical Turk [LabMT]) yielded inconsistent county-level well-being measurements due to regional, cultural, and socioeconomic differences in language use. However, removing as few as three of the most frequent words led to notable improvements in well-being prediction. Data-driven methods provided robust estimates, approximating the Gallup data at up to r = 0.64. We show that the findings generalized to county socioeconomic and health outcomes and were robust when poststratifying the samples to be more representative of the general US population. Regional well-being estimation from social media data seems to be robust when supervised data-driven methods are used.

Regional personality assessment through social media language.

OBJECTIVE: We explore the personality of counties as assessed through linguistic patterns on social media. Such studies were previously limited by the cost and feasibility of large-scale surveys; however, language-based computational models applied to large social media datasets now allow for large-scale personality assessment. METHOD: We applied a language-based assessment of the five factor model of personality to 6,064,267 U.S. Twitter users. We aggregated the Twitter-based personality scores to 2,041 counties and compared to political, economic, social, and health outcomes measured through surveys and by government agencies. RESULTS: There was significant personality variation across counties. Openness to experience was higher on the coasts, conscientiousness was uniformly spread, extraversion was higher in southern states, agreeableness was higher in western states, and emotional stability was highest in the south. Across 13 outcomes, language-based personality estimates replicated patterns that have been observed in individual-level and geographic studies. This includes higher Republican vote share in less agreeable counties and increased life satisfaction in more conscientious counties. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that regions vary in their personality and that these differences can be studied through computational linguistic analysis of social media. Furthermore, these methods may be used to explore other psychological constructs across geographies.

Linguistic predictors from Facebook postings of substance use disorder treatment retention versus discontinuation.

Background: Early indicators of who will remain in - or leave - treatment for substance use disorder (SUD) can drive targeted interventions to support long-term recovery.Objectives: To conduct a comprehensive study of linguistic markers of SUD treatment outcomes, the current study integrated features produced by machine learning models known to have social-psychology relevance.Methods: We extracted and analyzed linguistic features from participants' Facebook posts (N = 206, 39.32% female; 55,415 postings) over the two years before they entered a SUD treatment program. Exploratory features produced by both Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count (LIWC) and Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic modeling and the features from theoretical domains of religiosity, affect, and temporal orientation via established AI-based linguistic models were utilized.Results: Patients who stayed in the SUD treatment for over 90 days used more words associated with religion, positive emotions, family, affiliations, and the present, and used more first-person singular pronouns (Cohen's d values: [-0.39, -0.57]). Patients who discontinued their treatment before 90 days discussed more diverse topics, focused on the past, and used more articles (Cohen's d values: [0.44, 0.57]). All ps < .05 with Benjamini-Hochberg False Discovery Rate correction.Conclusions: We confirmed the literature on protective and risk social-psychological factors linking to SUD treatment in language analysis, showing that Facebook language before treatment entry could be used to identify the markers of SUD treatment outcomes. This reflects the importance of taking these linguistic features and markers into consideration when designing and recommending SUD treatment plans.

Facebook language predicts depression in medical records.

Depression, the most prevalent mental illness, is underdiagnosed and undertreated, highlighting the need to extend the scope of current screening methods. Here, we use language from Facebook posts of consenting individuals to predict depression recorded in electronic medical records. We accessed the history of Facebook statuses posted by 683 patients visiting a large urban academic emergency department, 114 of whom had a diagnosis of depression in their medical records. Using only the language preceding their first documentation of a diagnosis of depression, we could identify depressed patients with fair accuracy [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.69], approximately matching the accuracy of screening surveys benchmarked against medical records. Restricting Facebook data to only the 6 months immediately preceding the first documented diagnosis of depression yielded a higher prediction accuracy (AUC = 0.72) for those users who had sufficient Facebook data. Significant prediction of future depression status was possible as far as 3 months before its first documentation. We found that language predictors of depression include emotional (sadness), interpersonal (loneliness, hostility), and cognitive (preoccupation with the self, rumination) processes. Unobtrusive depression assessment through social media of consenting individuals may become feasible as a scalable complement to existing screening and monitoring procedures.

Bots and Misinformation Spread on Social Media: Implications for COVID-19.

As of March 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been responsible for over 115 million cases of COVID-19 worldwide, resulting in over 2.5 million deaths. As the virus spread exponentially, so did its media coverage, resulting in a proliferation of conflicting information on social media platforms-a so-called "infodemic." In this viewpoint, we survey past literature investigating the role of automated accounts, or "bots," in spreading such misinformation, drawing connections to the COVID-19 pandemic. We also review strategies used by bots to spread (mis)information and examine the potential origins of bots. We conclude by conducting and presenting a secondary analysis of data sets of known bots in which we find that up to 66% of bots are discussing COVID-19. The proliferation of COVID-19 (mis)information by bots, coupled with human susceptibility to believing and sharing misinformation, may well impact the course of the pandemic.

Natural Language Analysis and the Psychology of Verbal Behavior: The Past, Present, and Future States of the Field.

Throughout history, scholars and laypeople alike have believed that our words contain subtle clues about what we are like as people, psychologically speaking. However, the ways in which language has been used to infer psychological processes has seen dramatic shifts over time and, with modern computational technologies and digital data sources, we are on the verge of a massive revolution in language analysis research. In this article, we discuss the past and current states of research at the intersection of language analysis and psychology, summarizing the central successes and shortcomings of psychological text analysis to date. We additionally outline and discuss a critical need for language analysis practitioners in the social sciences to expand their view of verbal behavior. Lastly, we discuss the trajectory of interdisciplinary research on language and the challenges of integrating analysis methods across paradigms, recommending promising future directions for the field along the way.

Birds of a Feather Do Flock Together.

Friends and spouses tend to be similar in a broad range of characteristics, such as age, educational level, race, religion, attitudes, and general intelligence. Surprisingly, little evidence has been found for similarity in personality-one of the most fundamental psychological constructs. We argue that the lack of evidence for personality similarity stems from the tendency of individuals to make personality judgments relative to a salient comparison group, rather than in absolute terms (i.e., the reference-group effect), when responding to the self-report and peer-report questionnaires commonly used in personality research. We employed two behavior-based personality measures to circumvent the reference-group effect. The results based on large samples provide evidence for personality similarity between romantic partners ( n = 1,101; rs = .20-.47) and between friends ( n = 46,483; rs = .12-.31). We discuss the practical and methodological implications of the findings.

Living in the Past, Present, and Future: Measuring Temporal Orientation With Language.

Temporal orientation refers to individual differences in the relative emphasis one places on the past, present, or future, and it is related to academic, financial, and health outcomes. We propose and evaluate a method for automatically measuring temporal orientation through language expressed on social media. Judges rated the temporal orientation of 4,302 social media messages. We trained a classifier based on these ratings, which could accurately predict the temporal orientation of new messages in a separate validation set (accuracy/mean sensitivity = .72; mean specificity = .77). We used the classifier to automatically classify 1.3 million messages written by 5,372 participants (50% female; ages 13-48). Finally, we tested whether individual differences in past, present, and future orientation differentially related to gender, age, Big Five personality, satisfaction with life, and depressive symptoms. Temporal orientations exhibit several expected correlations with age, gender, and Big Five personality. More future-oriented people were older, more likely to be female, more conscientious, less impulsive, less depressed, and more satisfied with life; present orientation showed the opposite pattern. Language-based assessments can complement and extend existing measures of temporal orientation, providing an alternative approach and additional insights into language and personality relationships.

Correction: Seeing the "Big" Picture: Big Data Methods for Exploring Relationships Between Usage, Language, and Outcome in Internet Intervention Data.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/jmir.5725.].

Variations in Facebook Posting Patterns Across Validated Patient Health Conditions: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Social media is emerging as an insightful platform for studying health. To develop targeted health interventions involving social media, we sought to identify the patient demographic and disease predictors of frequency of posting on Facebook. OBJECTIVE: The aims were to explore the language topics correlated with frequency of social media use across a cohort of social media users within a health care setting, evaluate the differences in the quantity of social media postings across individuals with different disease diagnoses, and determine if patients could accurately predict their own levels of social media engagement. METHODS: Patients seeking care at a single, academic, urban, tertiary care emergency department from March to October 2014 were queried on their willingness to share data from their Facebook accounts and electronic medical records (EMRs). For each participant, the total content of Facebook posts was extracted. Using the latent Dirichlet allocation natural language processing technique, Facebook language topics were correlated with frequency of Facebook use. The mean number of Facebook posts over 6 months prior to enrollment was then compared across validated health outcomes in the sample. RESULTS: A total of 695 patients consented to provide access to their EMR and social media data. Significantly correlated language topics among participants with the highest quartile of posts contained health terms, such as "cough," "headaches," and "insomnia." When adjusted for demographics, individuals with a history of depression had significantly higher posts (mean 38, 95% CI 28-50) than individuals without a history of depression (mean 22, 95% CI 19-26, P=.001). Except for depression, across prevalent health outcomes in the sample (hypertension, diabetes, asthma), there were no significant posting differences between individuals with or without each condition. CONCLUSIONS: High-frequency posters in our sample were more likely to post about health and to have a diagnosis of depression. The direction of causality between depression and social media use requires further evaluation. Our findings suggest that patients with depression may be appropriate targets for health-related interventions on social media.

Action Tweets Linked to Reduced County-Level HIV Prevalence in the United States: Online Messages and Structural Determinants.

HIV is uncommon in most US counties but travels quickly through vulnerable communities when it strikes. Tracking behavior through social media may provide an unobtrusive, naturalistic means of predicting HIV outbreaks and understanding the behavioral and psychological factors that increase communities' risk. General action goals, or the motivation to engage in cognitive and motor activity, may support protective health behavior (e.g., using condoms) or encourage activity indiscriminately (e.g., risky sex), resulting in mixed health effects. We explored these opposing hypotheses by regressing county-level HIV prevalence on action language (e.g., work, plan) in over 150 million tweets mapped to US counties. Controlling for demographic and structural predictors of HIV, more active language was associated with lower HIV rates. By leveraging language used on social media to improve existing predictive models of geographic variation in HIV, future targeted HIV-prevention interventions may have a better chance of reaching high-risk communities before outbreaks occur.

Seeing the "Big" Picture: Big Data Methods for Exploring Relationships Between Usage, Language, and Outcome in Internet Intervention Data.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the efficacy of Internet interventions that are already in the market introduces both challenges and opportunities. While vast, often unprecedented amounts of data may be available (hundreds of thousands, and sometimes millions of participants with high dimensions of assessed variables), the data are observational in nature, are partly unstructured (eg, free text, images, sensor data), do not include a natural control group to be used for comparison, and typically exhibit high attrition rates. New approaches are therefore needed to use these existing data and derive new insights that can augment traditional smaller-group randomized controlled trials. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to demonstrate how emerging big data approaches can help explore questions about the effectiveness and process of an Internet well-being intervention. METHODS: We drew data from the user base of a well-being website and app called Happify. To explore effectiveness, multilevel models focusing on within-person variation explored whether greater usage predicted higher well-being in a sample of 152,747 users. In addition, to explore the underlying processes that accompany improvement, we analyzed language for 10,818 users who had a sufficient volume of free-text response and timespan of platform usage. A topic model constructed from this free text provided language-based correlates of individual user improvement in outcome measures, providing insights into the beneficial underlying processes experienced by users. RESULTS: On a measure of positive emotion, the average user improved 1.38 points per week (SE 0.01, t122,455=113.60, P<.001, 95% CI 1.36-1.41), about an 11% increase over 8 weeks. Within a given individual user, more usage predicted more positive emotion and less usage predicted less positive emotion (estimate 0.09, SE 0.01, t6047=9.15, P=.001, 95% CI .07-.12). This estimate predicted that a given user would report positive emotion 1.26 points (or 1.26%) higher after a 2-week period when they used Happify daily than during a week when they didn't use it at all. Among highly engaged users, 200 automatically clustered topics showed a significant (corrected P<.001) effect on change in well-being over time, illustrating which topics may be more beneficial than others when engaging with the interventions. In particular, topics that are related to addressing negative thoughts and feelings were correlated with improvement over time. CONCLUSIONS: Using observational analyses on naturalistic big data, we can explore the relationship between usage and well-being among people using an Internet well-being intervention and provide new insights into the underlying mechanisms that accompany it. By leveraging big data to power these new types of analyses, we can explore the workings of an intervention from new angles, and harness the insights that surface to feed back into the intervention and improve it further in the future.

The 2013 US Government Shutdown (#Shutdown) and health: an emerging role for social media.

In October 2013, multiple United States (US) federal health departments and agencies posted on Twitter, "We're sorry, but we will not be tweeting or responding to @replies during the shutdown. We'll be back as soon as possible!" These "last tweets" and the millions of responses they generated revealed social media's role as a forum for sharing and discussing information rapidly. Social media are now among the few dominant communication channels used today. We used social media to characterize the public discourse and sentiment about the shutdown. The 2013 shutdown represented an opportunity to explore the role social media might play in events that could affect health.

Beyond rating scales: With targeted evaluation, large language models are poised for psychological assessment.

In this narrative review, we survey recent empirical evaluations of AI-based language assessments and present a case for the technology of large language models to be poised for changing standardized psychological assessment. Artificial intelligence has been undergoing a purported "paradigm shift" initiated by new machine learning models, large language models (e.g., BERT, LAMMA, and that behind ChatGPT). These models have led to unprecedented accuracy over most computerized language processing tasks, from web searches to automatic machine translation and question answering, while their dialogue-based forms, like ChatGPT have captured the interest of over a million users. The success of the large language model is mostly attributed to its capability to numerically represent words in their context, long a weakness of previous attempts to automate psychological assessment from language. While potential applications for automated therapy are beginning to be studied on the heels of chatGPT's success, here we present evidence that suggests, with thorough validation of targeted deployment scenarios, that AI's newest technology can move mental health assessment away from rating scales and to instead use how people naturally communicate, in language.

Characterizing empathy and compassion using computational linguistic analysis.

Many scholars have proposed that feeling what we believe others are feeling-often known as "empathy"-is essential for other-regarding sentiments and plays an important role in our moral lives. Caring for and about others (without necessarily sharing their feelings)-often known as "compassion"-is also frequently discussed as a relevant force for prosocial motivation and action. Here, we explore the relationship between empathy and compassion using the methods of computational linguistics. Analyses of 2,356,916 Facebook posts suggest that individuals (N = 2,781) high in empathy use different language than those high in compassion, after accounting for shared variance between these constructs. Empathic people, controlling for compassion, often use self-focused language and write about negative feelings, social isolation, and feeling overwhelmed. Compassionate people, controlling for empathy, often use other-focused language and write about positive feelings and social connections. In addition, high empathy without compassion is related to negative health outcomes, while high compassion without empathy is related to positive health outcomes, positive lifestyle choices, and charitable giving. Such findings favor an approach to moral motivation that is grounded in compassion rather than empathy. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Tapping into alcohol use during COVID: Drinking correlates among bartenders and servers.

The COVID pandemic placed a spotlight on alcohol use and the hardships of working within the food and beverage industry, with millions left jobless. Following previous studies that have found elevated rates of alcohol problems among bartenders and servers, here we studied the alcohol use of bartenders and servers who were employed during COVID. From February 12-June 16, 2021, in the midst of the U.S. COVID national emergency declaration, survey data from 1,010 employed bartender and servers were analyzed to quantify rates of excessive or hazardous drinking along with regression predictors of alcohol use as assessed by the 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Findings indicate that more than 2 out of 5 (44%) people surveyed reported moderate or high rates of alcohol problem severity (i.e., AUDIT scores of 8 or higher)-a rate 4 to 6 times that of the heavy alcohol use rate reported pre- or mid-pandemic by adults within and outside the industry. Person-level factors (gender, substance use, mood) along with the drinking habits of one's core social group were significantly associated with alcohol use. Bartenders and servers reported surprisingly high rates of alcohol problem severity and experienced risk factors for hazardous drinking at multiple ecological levels. Being a highly vulnerable and understudied population, more studies on bartenders and servers are needed to assess and manage the true toll of alcohol consumption for industry employees.

Large language models could change the future of behavioral healthcare: a proposal for responsible development and evaluation.

Large language models (LLMs) such as Open AI's GPT-4 (which power ChatGPT) and Google's Gemini, built on artificial intelligence, hold immense potential to support, augment, or even eventually automate psychotherapy. Enthusiasm about such applications is mounting in the field as well as industry. These developments promise to address insufficient mental healthcare system capacity and scale individual access to personalized treatments. However, clinical psychology is an uncommonly high stakes application domain for AI systems, as responsible and evidence-based therapy requires nuanced expertise. This paper provides a roadmap for the ambitious yet responsible application of clinical LLMs in psychotherapy. First, a technical overview of clinical LLMs is presented. Second, the stages of integration of LLMs into psychotherapy are discussed while highlighting parallels to the development of autonomous vehicle technology. Third, potential applications of LLMs in clinical care, training, and research are discussed, highlighting areas of risk given the complex nature of psychotherapy. Fourth, recommendations for the responsible development and evaluation of clinical LLMs are provided, which include centering clinical science, involving robust interdisciplinary collaboration, and attending to issues like assessment, risk detection, transparency, and bias. Lastly, a vision is outlined for how LLMs might enable a new generation of studies of evidence-based interventions at scale, and how these studies may challenge assumptions about psychotherapy.

The LEADING Guideline: Reporting Standards for Expert Panel, Best-Estimate Diagnosis, and Longitudinal Expert All Data (LEAD) Studies.

Accurate assessments of symptoms and diagnoses are essential for health research and clinical practice but face many challenges. The absence of a single error-free measure is currently addressed by assessment methods involving experts reviewing several sources of information to achieve a more accurate or best-estimate assessment. Three bodies of work spanning medicine, psychiatry, and psychology propose similar assessment methods: The Expert Panel, the Best-Estimate Diagnosis, and the Longitudinal Expert All Data (LEAD). However, the quality of such best-estimate assessments is typically very difficult to evaluate due to poor reporting of the assessment methods and when it is reported, the reporting quality varies substantially. Here we tackle this gap by developing reporting guidelines for such studies, using a four-stage approach: 1) drafting reporting standards accompanied by rationales and empirical evidence, which were further developed with a patient organization for depression, 2) incorporating expert feedback through a two-round Delphi procedure, 3) refining the guideline based on an expert consensus meeting, and 4) testing the guideline by i) having two researchers test it and ii) using it to examine the extent previously published articles report the standards. The last step also demonstrates the need for the guideline: 18 to 58% (Mean = 33%) of the standards were not reported across fifteen randomly selected studies. The LEADING guideline comprises 20 reporting standards related to four groups: The Longitudinal design; the Appropriate data; the Evaluation - experts, materials, and procedures; and the Validity group. We hope that the LEADING guideline will be useful in assisting researchers in planning, reporting, and evaluating research aiming to achieve best-estimate assessments.