Demand-side consequences of unemployment and horizontal skill mismatches across national contexts: An employer-based factorial survey experiment.

With growing flexibilization in the labour market, continuous and consistent career trajectories have become less the norm, and workers facing unemployment may need to look for employment opportunities outside the occupation they are trained in. But what are their employment chances? And what are the chances of returning to the occupation they were trained in after having worked in a different occupation? Despite much research on how employers evaluate job candidates with vertical skill mismatches (e.g. over-qualification and under-qualification) and unemployment, there is little research to investigate how employers view horizontal mismatch in comparison to unemployment, and whether a combination of both generates multiplicative negative effects. Using data gathered from an employer survey experiment in Switzerland and Greece, we find that in Switzerland both unemployment and horizontal mismatch significantly reduce employment chances, but the scarring effect of horizontal mismatch is much stronger. In contrast, in Greece horizontal mismatch significantly reduces employment chances but unemployment does not. Furthermore, we found that horizontal mismatch scarring is significantly stronger in Switzerland than in Greece. These findings suggest that the scarring effects of both unemployment and horizontal mismatch vary across contexts. Further analyses show that, rather than experiencing multiplicative scarring effects, unemployment does not add further disadvantages to mismatched candidates in either country, highlighting the importance of occupational specificity of skills in labour market matching. Overall, these findings facilitate a more nuanced understanding of demand-side labour market processes, highlighting the distinct interactive effects of unemployment and horizontal mismatch across national contexts.

The future(s) of unpaid work: How susceptible do experts from different backgrounds think the domestic sphere is to automation?

The future of work has become a prominent topic for research and policy debate. However, the debate has focused entirely on paid work, even though people in industrialized countries on average spend comparable amounts of time on unpaid work. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) to expand the future of work debate to unpaid domestic work and (2) to critique the main methodology used in previous studies. To these ends, we conducted a forecasting exercise in which 65 AI experts from the UK and Japan estimated how automatable are 17 housework and care work tasks. Unlike previous studies, we applied a sociological approach that considers how experts' diverse backgrounds might shape their estimates. On average our experts predicted that 39 percent of the time spent on a domestic task will be automatable within ten years. Japanese male experts were notably pessimistic about the potentials of domestic automation, a result we interpret through gender disparities in the Japanese household. Our contributions are providing the first quantitative estimates concerning the future of unpaid work and demonstrating how such predictions are socially contingent, with implications to forecasting methodology.

How unemployment scarring affects skilled young workers: evidence from a factorial survey of Swiss recruiters.

We ask how employers contribute to unemployment scarring in the recruitment process in the German-speaking part of Switzerland. By drawing on recruitment theories, we aim to better understand how recruiters assess different patterns of unemployment in a job candidate's CV and how this affects the chances of young applicants being considered for a vacancy. We argue that in contexts with tight school-work linkage and highly standardised Vocational Education and Training systems, the detrimental effect of early unemployment depends on how well the applicant's profile matches the requirements of the advertised position. To test this assumption, we surveyed Swiss recruiters who were seeking to fill positions during the time of data collection. We employed a factorial survey experiment that tested how the (un)employment trajectories in hypothetical young job applicants' CV affected their chances of being considered for a real vacancy. Our results show that unemployment decreases the perceived suitability of an applicant for a specific job, which implies there is a scarring effect of unemployment that increases with the duration of being unemployed. But we also found that these effects are moderated by how well the applicant's profile matches the job's requirements. Overall, the worse the match between applicant's profile and the job profile, the smaller are the scarring effects of unemployment. In sum, our findings contribute to the literature by revealing considerable heterogeneity in the scarring effects of unemployment. Our findings further suggest that the scarring effects of unemployment need to be studied with regard to country-specific institutional settings, the applicants' previous education and employment experiences, and the job characteristics.