Development and validation of a prediction model for histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are at risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We developed a model to predict histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic BE (NDBE). METHODS: A longitudinal study in three referral centers was performed between January 2010 and December 2019. As progression to low-grade dysplasia (LGD) can be considered an indication for ablative therapy, the study end-point was histopathologic progression to LGD, high-grade dysplasia, or EAC at 3 years after diagnosis. We used logistic regression to create the model. Seventy percent of the cohort were used to stem the model and the remaining 30% for internal validation. RESULTS: A total of 542 patients were included, 69.4% of whom were male, mean age 62.2 years. Long-segment BE at index endoscopy was diagnosed in 20.8% of the patients. After a mean follow-up of 6.7 years, 133 patients (24.5%) had histologic progression. Our model identified a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio [OR] 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.77-2.32, P < 0.001), BE length (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.36, P < 0.001), age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.05, P = 0.02), smoking (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.09-2.75, P = 0.04), and renal failure (OR 1.51, 95% CI 0.93-2.43, P = 0.07) as predictors of histologic progression at 3 years. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of this model were 0.88 and 0.76 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSION: This novel, internally validated model may predict histologic progression, even in patients with NDBE who generally have low rates of progression over time, and may contribute to enhanced patient selection for more intense surveillance programs.

Reduction in Serum Triglyceride Levels in Diabetic Patients May Result in Decreased Insulin Dependence and Disease Regression.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a multifactorial disease in which genetic susceptibility and environmental factors induce pancreatic ß-cell dysfunction and insulin resistance. Additional factors such as hyperglycemia and hyperlipidemia have roles in ß-cell dysfunction and disease progression. The phenomenon of lipid-induced pancreatic ß-dysfunction, designated as lipotoxicity, has been observed in several in vitro and in vivo experiments; however, there is still no solid evidence for the occurrence of this event in humans. The toxic effect of high lipid levels on ß-cell function consists of impaired insulin gene expression, apoptosis, and reduced glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the importance of treating hypertriglyceridemia in reducing glucose intolerance and the need for insulin therapy in hospitalized diabetic patients. METHODS: We evaluated five clinical case reports and conducted a detailed literature review via the PubMed search engine. RESULTS: Reduction in elevated blood triglyceride and glucose levels in hospitalized diabetic patients resulted in a rapid decline in glucose levels and in the need for insulin therapy. CONCLUSIONS: A decrease in high triglyceride levels in "lipotoxic" diabetic patients may improve insulin intolerance and glucose homeostasis and reduce the need for insulin therapy.

Multi-focal dysplasia is associated with high recurrence rates after successful ablation of dysplastic Barrett's esophagus.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Barrett's esophagus (BE) might recur after complete eradication of intestinal metaplasia (CEIM). We investigated  factors associated with recurrence of BE after successful Radiofrequency ablation (RFA). METHODS: A longitudinal study of BE patients with dysplasia treated with RFA from 2014 to 2021 in two large referral centers. Recurrence was identified in histologic specimens. Factors associated with post-RFA recurrence were analyzed using Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 728 patients with BE were identified, 118 had underwent RFA, and 113 had sufficient follow up time. Mean age was 63.7 (±11.7) years, 73.5% were males, 59.3% had long segment of BE, and 30.1% had multifocal dysplasia. During 340.8 patient-years of follow-up, 15 patients (13.3%) had recurrence of BE, which represent an incidence rate of 4.41% per patient-year. Incidence rate of recurrence with dysplasia was 1.17% per patient-year. Multifocal dysplasia, number of RFA sessions, and endoscopic resection before RFA were associated with risk of recurrence in univariate analysis. However, in cox regression analysis only multifocal dysplasia (HR 10.99; 95% CI 2.83-22.62, p = 0.001) was associated with post-RFA recurrence. CONCLUSION: Total recurrence rates after CEIM are low, and multifocal dysplasia before the ablative therapy is significantly associated with BE recurrence after CEIM. Patients with multifocal dysplasia should be monitored rigorously after successful ablation.

Predictors of poor outcome following liver biopsy for the investigation of new hepatic space occupying lesion/s.

BACKGROUND: Ultrasound-guided percutaneous liver biopsy (UPLB) is currently performed mainly to determine if new hepatic space occupying lesions (SOL) represent benign, primary malignant, or metastatic disease. This study sought to investigate the outcome of UPLB in this setting. METHODS: In a retrospective study, patients with a new hepatic SOL who underwent UPLB during 1/2006-12/2016 were included and followed to 12/2018. Clinical data and pathology reports were reviewed. Mortality within 60 days and no change in patients' management following UPLB were defined as medically futile. RESULTS: Included 140 patients, 50% male, mean age 68.8 ± 11.5 years; 112 patients died, all of malignant disease. 32 patients (23%) died within 60 days of UPLB. Median post-UPLB survival was 151 days. Survival was significantly shorter in patients with >1 hepatic lesion (n = 108) or an extrahepatic malignant lesion (n = 77) (p = 0.0082, p = 0.0301, respectively). On Cox Proportional Hazards analysis, significant predictors of mortality within 60 days of UPLB were: age as a continuous variable, (HR 1.070, 95% CI 1.011-1.131, p = 0.018), serum albumin <2.9 g/dL, (HR 4.822 95% CI 1.335-17.425, p = 0.016) and serum LDH >1500 U/L (HR 9.443, 95% CI 3.404-26.197, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with these features or with disseminated disease, liver biopsy should be carefully reconsidered.