The rationale for South Africa to prioritise mental health care as a critical aspect of overall health care.

BACKGROUND: The publication of South Africa's National Mental Health Policy Framework and Strategic Plan 2023-2030 and the proposed National Health Insurance (NHI) make it timely to review that state of mental health services in the country, and to emphasize the importance of prioritising mental health as a pivotal component of holistic healthcare. METHOD: We searched the published literature on mental health using Google Scholar, Pubmed, and Bing Chat, focusing on these words: epidemiology of mental health disorders, depression and anxiety disorders, mental health services, mental health facilities, human resources, financing and impact of COVID-19 on mental health in South Africa and beyond. We also searched the grey literature on mental health policy that is publicly available on Google. RESULTS: We provided information on the epidemiology and economic impact of mental health disorders, the availability of mental health services, enabling policies, human resources, financing, and the infrastructure for mental health service delivery in South Africa. We detail the high lifetime prevalence rates of common mental disorders, as well as the profound impact of socioeconomic determinants such as poverty, unemployment, and trauma on mental health disorders. We note the exacerbating effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, and emphasize the pressing need for a robust mental health care system. CONCLUSION: In addition to outlining the challenges, such as limited mental health service availability, a shortage of mental health professionals, and financial constraints, the review proposes potential solutions, including task-sharing, telehealth, and increasing the production of mental health professionals. The paper underscores the necessity of crafting a comprehensive NHI package of mental health services tailored to the local context. This envisioned package would focus on evidence-based interventions, early identification, and community-based care. By prioritising mental health and addressing its multifaceted challenges, South Africa can aspire to render accessible and equitable mental health services for all its citizens within the framework of the National Health Insurance.

Antiretroviral Treatment and Sexual Risk Behavior in South Africa.

The sexual behavior of individuals living with HIV determines the onward transmission of HIV. With the understanding that antiretroviral therapy (ART) prevents transmission of HIV, the sexual behaviors of the individuals not on ART with unsuppressed viral loads becomes of the greatest importance in elucidating transmission. We assessed the association between being on ART and sexual risk behavior among those living with HIV in a nationally representative population-based cross-sectional survey of households in South Africa that was conducted in 2012. Of 2237 adults (aged 15-49) who tested HIV-seropositive, 667 (29.8 %) had detectable antiretroviral drugs in their blood specimens. Among males, 77.7 % of those on ART reported having had sex in the past year contrasted with 88.4 % of those not on ART (p = 0.001); among females, 72.2 % of those on ART reported having had sex in the past year while 80.3 % of those not on ART did (p < 0.001). For males and females, the odds of reporting consistent condom use and condom use at last sex were statistically significantly higher for individuals on ART compared to those not on ART (males: consistent condom use aOR 2.8, 95 % CI 1.6-4.9, condom use at last sex aOR 2.6, 95 % CI 1.5-4.6; females: consistent condom use aOR 2.3, 95 % CI 1.7-3.1, condom use at last sex aOR 2.3, 95 % CI 1.7-3.1), while there were no statistically significant differences in odds of reporting multiple sexual partners in the past year. In this nationally representative population-based survey of South African adults, we found evidence of less risky sexual risk behavior among people living with HIV on ART compared to those not on ART.

Does marital status matter in an HIV hyperendemic country? Findings from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey.

South Africa has experienced declining marriage rates and the increasing practice of cohabitation without marriage. This study aims to improve the understanding of the relationship between marital status and HIV in South Africa, an HIV hyperendemic country, through an analysis of findings from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. The nationally representative population-based cross-sectional survey collected data on HIV and socio-demographic and behavioural determinants in South Africa. This analysis considered respondents aged 16 years and older who consented to participate in the survey and provided dried blood spot specimens for HIV testing (N = 17,356). After controlling for age, race, having multiple sexual partners, condom use at last sex, urban/rural dwelling and level of household income, those who were married living with their spouse had significantly reduced odds of being HIV-positive compared to all other marital spouses groups. HIV incidence was 0.27% among respondents who were married living with their spouses; the highest HIV incidence was found in the cohabiting group (2.91%). Later marriage (after age 24) was associated with increased odds of HIV prevalence. Our analysis suggests an association between marital status and HIV prevalence and incidence in contemporary South Africa, where odds of being HIV-positive were found to be lower among married individuals who lived with their spouses compared to all other marital status groups. HIV prevention messages therefore need to be targeted to unmarried populations, especially cohabitating populations. As low socio-economic status, low social cohesion and the resulting destabilization of sexual relationships may explain the increased risk of HIV among unmarried populations, it is necessary to address structural issues including poverty that create an environment unfavourable to stable sexual relationships.

Growing inequities in maternal health in South Africa: a comparison of serial national household surveys.

BACKGROUND: Rates of maternal mortality and morbidity vary markedly, both between and within countries. Documenting these variations, in a very unequal society like South Africa, provides useful information to direct initiatives to improve services. The study describes inequalities over time in access to maternal health services in South Africa, and identifies differences in maternal health outcomes between population groups and across geographical areas. METHODS: Data were analysed from serial population-level household surveys that applied multistage-stratified sampling. Access to maternal health services and health outcomes in 2008 (n = 1121) were compared with those in 2012 (n = 1648). Differences between socio-economic quartiles were quantified using the relative (RII) and slope (SII) index of inequality, based on survey weights. RESULTS: High levels of inequalities were noted in most measures of service access in both 2008 and 2012. Inequalities between socio-economic quartiles worsened over time in antenatal clinic attendance, with overall coverage falling from 97.0 to 90.2 %. Nationally, skilled birth attendance remained about 95 %, with persistent high inequalities (SII = 0.11, RII = 1.12 in 2012). In 2012, having a doctor present at childbirth was higher than in 2008 (34.4 % versus 27.8 %), but inequalities worsened. Countrywide, levels of planned pregnancy declined from 44.6 % in 2008 to 34.7 % in 2012. The RII and SII rose over this period and in 2012, only 22.4 % of the poorest quartile had a planned pregnancy. HIV testing increased substantially by 2012, though remains low in groups with a high HIV prevalence, such as women in rural formal areas, and from Gauteng and Mpumalanga provinces. Marked deficiencies in service access were noted in the Eastern Cape ad North West provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Though some population-level improvements occurred in access to services, inequalities generally worsened. Low levels of planned pregnancy, antenatal clinic access and having a doctor present at childbirth among poor women are of most concern. Policy makers should carefully balance efforts to increase service access nationally, against the need for programs targeting underserved populations.

New insights into HIV epidemic in South Africa: key findings from the National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey, 2012.

This article presents key findings from the 2012 HIV prevalence, incidence and behaviour survey conducted in South Africa and explores trends in the HIV epidemic. A representative household based survey collected behavioural and biomedical data among people of all ages. Chi-squared test for association and formal trend tests (2002, 2005, 2008 and 2012) were used to test for associations and trends in the HIV epidemic across the four surveys. In 2012 a total of 38 431 respondents were interviewed from 11 079 households; 28 997 (67.5%) of 42 950 eligible individuals provided blood specimens. HIV prevalence was 12.2% [95% CI: 11.4-13.1] in 2012 with prevalence higher among females 14.4% than males 9.9%. Adults aged 25-49 years were most affected, 25.2% [95% CI: 23.2-27.3]. HIV prevalence increased from 10.6% [95%CI: 9.8-11.6] in 2008 to 12.2% [95% CI: 11.4-13.1] in 2012 (p < 0.001). Antiretroviral treatment (ART) exposure doubled from 16.6% in 2008 to 31.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001). HIV incidence in 2012 among persons 2 years and older was 1.07% [95% CI: 0.87-1.27], with the highest incidence among Black African females aged 20-34 years at 4.5%. Sexual debut before 15 years was reported by 10.7% of respondents aged 15-24 years, and was significantly higher among male youth than female (16.7% vs. 5.0% respectively, p < 0.001). Reporting of multiple sexual partners in the previous 12 months increased from 11.5% in 2002 to 18.3% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Condom use at last sex dropped from 45.1% in 2008 to 36.2% in 2012 (p < 0.001). Levels of accurate HIV knowledge about transmission and prevention were low and had decreased between 2008 and 2012 from 31.5% to 26.8%. South Africa is on the right track with scaling up ART. However, there have been worrying increases in most HIV-related risk behaviours. These findings suggest that there is a need to scale up prevention methods that integrate biomedical, behavioural, social and structural prevention interventions to reverse the tide in the fight against HIV.

Determinants of multiple sexual partnerships in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: This paper aims to examine determinants of multiple sexual partnerships (MSPs) among South African men and women using a nationally representative sample. METHODS: Quantitative and qualitative data from a 2008 population-based cross-sectional survey were used. The analysis focused on the 6990 (33.6% of total sample) who were 15 years and older and reported sexual activity in the prior 12 months. The qualitative component consisted of 15 focus group interviews investigating values underlying MSP behaviors. RESULTS: Predictors of MSP common across gender were race, having a history of STI, being in a short relationships (<1 year) and suspecting the current partner of infidelity. MSP among men enjoyed greater community acceptance and was mainly done for social status. Furthermore, men reporting MSP were mostly younger (15-24 years old) and use condom at last sex. Among women, determinants of MSP included economic vulnerability, younger age at sexual debut and living in formal urban rather than formal rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: The data presented in this paper reinforces the importance of MSP as a risk factor for HIV and outline factors that should strongly be considered in strengthening condom use promotion and of partner reduction programs messaging in South Africa.

Determinants of psychological distress among individuals who are aware of their HIV serostatus in South Africa: findings from the 2017 national HIV prevalence, incidence, behavior, and communication survey.

Introduction: Psychological distress is a growing public health challenge among people living with HIV. This study investigated the prevalence of psychological distress among individuals who know their HIV positive or negative serostatus in South Africa using 2017 data from a nationwide cross-sectional household-based population survey. Methods: The data for this secondary analysis was collected using a multi-stage stratified cluster randomized sampling design. Multivariable backward stepwise generalized linear regression models were fitted to determine factors associated with psychological distress as measured by the Kessler Scale (K10) among HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals who know their serostatus in South Africa. Results: Of 18,662 participants, psychological distress was 27.4% (95% CI: 25.3-29.7) among those HIV-positive and 20.1% (95% C: 18.8-21.4) among those HIV-negative. The odds of psychological distress were significantly higher among HIV-positive individuals who rated their health as fair/poor [AOR = 1.22 (95% CI: 1.09-1.35), p < 0.001], and the odds were lower among those residing in rural formal/farm areas [AOR = 0.85 (95% CI: 0.78-0.93), p < 0.001], and those with tertiary education level [AOR = 0.88 (95% CI: 0.78-0.99), p = 0.033]. The odds of psychological distress in HIV-negative individuals were significantly higher among females than males [AOR = 1.09 (95% CI: 1.05-1.14), p < 0.001], high-risk alcohol drinkers [AOR = 1.26 (95% CI: 1.02-1.57), p = 0.035] and hazardous alcohol drinkers [AOR = 1.09 (95% CI: 1.01-1.18), p = 0.028] than abstainers and those who rated their health as fair/poor rather than excellent/good [AOR = 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10-1.26), p < 0.001]. Conclusion: The study underscores the importance of addressing, alcohol misuse and socio-structural inequalities linked to gender and race-based disparities, such as low educational attainment and unemployment, as critical factors associated with psychological distress in the study population.

Is There Risk Compensation among HIV Infected Youth and Adults 15 Years and Older on Antiretroviral Treatment in South Africa? Findings from the 2017 National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, Behaviour and Communication Survey.

In this paper, risk compensation among individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART), using the 2017 South African national survey on HIV, is explored. A multi-stage stratified cluster random sampling approach was used to realize 11,130 participants 15 years and older. Logistic regression analysis assessed the association between multiple sexual partners, condom use at last sexual encounter, consistency of condom usage and potential explanatory variables using HIV status and ART exposure as a mediator variable. HIV positive participants who were aware and on ART were less likely to have multiple sexual partners, and less likely not to use a condom at last sex compared to HIV positive participants who were aware but not on ART. The odds of reporting multiple sexual partners were significantly lower among older age groups, females, non-Black Africans, and rural settings, and higher among those with tertiary level education, and risky alcohol users. The odds of no condom use at last sexual encounter were more likely among older age groups, females, other race groups, and less likely among those with secondary level education. The odds of inconsistent condom use were more likely among older age groups, females, and other race groups, and less likely among those with tertiary level education, high risk and hazardous alcohol users. Risk compensation is not apparent among HIV infected adults who are on ART. Risk groups that should receive tailored interventions to reduced risky sexual behaviours were identified.

Prevalence of self-reported HIV testing and associated factors among adolescent girls and young women in South Africa: Results from a 2017 nationally representative population-based HIV survey.

Objectives: This article estimated the prevalence of self-reported HIV testing and identified associated factors among sexually active adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), aged 15-24 years, in South Africa. Study design: This is a secondary data analysis of a nationally representative population-based cross-sectional multi-stage cluster survey of households in South Africa conducted in 2017. Methods: Descriptive statistics were used to describe AGYW characteristics and the multivariable logistic regression model was used to determine factors associated with HIV testing. All analyses were adjusted for unequal sampling probabilities using survey weights. Results: From the 1360 AGYW analysed (70.3% aged 20-24 years, 89.0% Black African, 95.5% unmarried, 88.7% unemployed), 1154 (estimate 85.8% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 83.0 to 88.1)) had ever tested for HIV. In adjusted analysis, AGYW who had been pregnant in the past 24 months (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 3.67, 95%CI: 1.68 to 8.02), were older (20-24 years: aOR 3.13, 95%CI: 1.86 to 5.28), or did not use condoms consistently compared to using them every time (almost every time: aOR 3.31, 95%CI: 1.07 to 10.22; sometimes: aOR 2.54, 95%CI: 1.29 to 4.98) had significantly higher odds of ever testing for HIV. Conclusions: This research identified an unmet need for HIV testing among AGYW and increasing awareness of HIV counselling and testing among AGYW in South Africa is recommended.

Stigma, Culture, and HIV and AIDS in the Western Cape, South Africa: An Application of the PEN-3 Cultural Model for Community-Based Research.

HIV- and AIDS-related stigma has been reported to be a major factor contributing to the spread of HIV. In this study, the authors explore the meaning of stigma and its impact on HIV and AIDS in South African families and health care centers. They conducted focus group and key informant interviews among African and Colored populations in Khayelitsha, Gugulethu, and Mitchell's Plain in the Western Cape province. The audio-recorded interviews were transcribed and coded using NVivo. Using the PEN-3 cultural model, the authors analyzed results showing that participants' shared experiences ranged from positive/nonstigmatizing, to existential/unique to the contexts, to negative/stigmatizing. Families and health care centers were found to have both positive nonstigmatizing values and negative stigmatizing characteristics in addressing HIV/AIDS-related stigma. The authors conclude that a culture-centered analysis, relative to identity, is central to understanding the nature and contexts of HIV/AIDS-related stigma in South Africa.

Barriers to prevention of HIV transmission from mother to child (PMTCT) in a resource poor setting in the Eastern Cape, South Africa.

The aim of this study was to investigate knowledge of PMTCT and to describe potential barriers that might affect acceptability of interventions for PMTCT in a resource poor setting in South Africa. The sample included 1534 pregnant women recruited at first antenatal care visit from 5 clinics implementing PMTCT (61%) and from 5 communities around the 5 clinic areas (39%). In addition, the mothers or mothers-in-law (70.9%) and husbands or partners (58.2%) of the pregnant women were interviewed at their homes. Results indicate that major potential barriers in implementing PMTCT programmes in a resource poor setting included physical access to the health facility, PMTCT knowledge, stigma and support, HIV testing, and delivery preference.

The science of Durban, AIDS 2016.

INTRODUCTION: The science presented at the 21st International AIDS Conference in Durban, South Africa, in July 2016, addressed the state of the field across basic, clinical, prevention, law and policy and implementation science. METHODS AND RESULTS: The AIDS response has seen remarkable achievements in scientific advances, in translation of those advances into prevention, treatment and care for affected individuals and communities, and in large scale implementation - reaching 18 million people with antiviral therapy by mid-year 2016. Yet incident HIV infections in adults remain stubbornly stable and are increasing in some regions and among adolescents and adults in some key populations, challenging current science, policy and programming. There have been important advances in both preventive vaccines and in cure research, but both areas require ongoing investment and innovation. Clinical research has flourished with new agents, regimens, delivery modes and diagnostics but has been challenged by aging and increasingly complex patient populations, long-term adherence challenges, co-infections and co-morbidities, and unresolved issues in TB management and epidemic control. It is an extraordinary period of innovation in prevention, yet the promise of new tools and combination approaches have yet to deliver epidemic HIV control. CONCLUSIONS: Proven interventions, most notably pre-exposure prophylaxis, PrEP, have been limited in rollout and impact. Treatment as prevention has the promise to improve clinical outcomes but remains uncertain as a prevention tool to reduce population-level HIV incidence. The improvement of legal, policy and human rights environments for those most at risk for HIV acquisition and most at risk for lack of access to essential services; sexual and gender minorities, sex workers of all genders, people who inject drugs, and prisoners and detainees remain among the greatest unmet needs in HIV/AIDS. Failure to do better for these individuals and communities could undermine the HIV response.

Assessing the spatial nonstationarity in relationship between local patterns of HIV infections and the covariates in South Africa: A geographically weighted regression analysis.

Beyond the structural drivers such as distance from the road, rural/urban divide or demographic profiles, not much is known about the spatial relationship between HIV and social covariates. Spatial relations between social covariates and HIV infection of persons above 15 years were explored and mapped using geographically weighted regression model using data from a national HIV household survey conducted in 2008 and comprising 23 369 individuals from approximately 1000 enumeration areas that were randomly selected from the national census. The maps show spatial non-stationarity in relationship between local patterns of HIV prevalence and the social covariates across South Africa. The high prevalence districts have very homogeneous population defined by the following characteristics: Black origin, unfavorable sex ratio (high proportion of females), low socioeconomic status, being single or low marriage rates, multiple sexual partners and intergenerational sex. Markedly, intergenerational sex compounds the risk of acquiring HIV infection for females in poor districts. Identification of key social drivers of HIV and how they vary from location to location can help to effectively guide and focus intervention programs to areas of particular need.

Age-disparate sex and HIV risk for young women from 2002 to 2012 in South Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Age-disparate sex has long been considered a factor that increases HIV risk for young women in South Africa. However, recent studies from specific regions in South Africa have found conflicting evidence. Few studies have assessed the association between age-disparate partnerships (those involving an age gap of 5 years or more) and HIV risk at the national level. This study investigates the relationship between age-disparate sex and HIV status among young women aged 15-24 in South Africa. METHODS: Nationally representative weighted data from the 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2012 South African National HIV Surveys were analysed for young women aged 15-24 years using bivariate analyses and multiple logistic regressions. RESULTS: After conducting multiple logistic regression analyses and controlling for confounders, young women with age-disparate partners had greater odds of being HIV positive in every survey year: 2002 (aOR = 1.74, 95%CI: 0.81-3.76, p = 0.16); 2005 (aOR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.22-3.66, p < 0.01); 2008 (aOR = 2.02, 95%CI: 1.24-3.29, p < 0.01); 2012 (aOR = 1.53, 95%CI: 0.92-2.54, p < 0.1). The odds of being HIV positive increased for each year increase in their male partner's age in 2002 (aOR = 1.10, 95%CI: 0.98-1.22, p = 0.11), 2005 (aOR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.03-1.17, p < 0.01), 2008 (aOR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.01-1.15, p < 0.05), and 2012 (aOR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.01-1.16, p < 0.05). Findings were statistically significant (p < 0.1) for the years 2005, 2008, and 2012. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that age-disparate sex continues to be a risk factor for young women aged 15-24 in South Africa at a national level. These results may reflect variation in HIV risk at the national level compared to the differing results from recent studies in a demographic surveillance system and trial contexts. In light of recent contradictory study results, further research is required on the relationship between age-disparate sex and HIV for a more nuanced understanding of young women's HIV risk.

Prevalence of tobacco use among adults in South Africa: Results from the first South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

BACKGROUND: Data on tobacco use have informed the effectiveness of South Africa (SA)'s tobacco control strategies over the past 20 years. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of tobacco use in the adult SA population according to certain demographic variables, and identify the factors influencing cessation attempts among current smokers. METHODS: A multistage disproportionate nationally representative stratified cluster sample of households was selected for the South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, conducted in 2012. A sample of 10 000 households from 500 census enumerator areas was visited. A detailed questionnaire was administered to all consenting adults in each consenting household. RESULTS: Of adult South Africans, 17.6% (95% confidence interval (CI) 6.3 - 18.9) currently smoke tobacco. Males (29.2%) had a prevalence four times that for females (7.3%) (odds ratio 5.20, 95% CI 4.39 - 6.16; p<0.001). The provinces with the highest current tobacco smoking prevalence were the Western Cape (32.9%), Northern Cape (31.2%) and Free State (27.4%). Among current tobacco smokers, 29.3% had been advised to quit smoking by a healthcare provider during the preceding year, 81.4% had noticed health warnings on tobacco packages, and 49.9% reported that the warning labels had led them to consider quitting. CONCLUSION: A large proportion of adult South Africans continue to use tobacco. While considerable gains have been made in reducing tobacco use over the past 20 years, tobacco use and its determinants need to be monitored to ensure that tobacco control strategies remain effective.

The case for expanding the definition of 'key populations' to include high-risk groups in the general population to improve targeted HIV prevention efforts.

BACKGROUND: Two additional key populations within the general population in South Africa (SA) that are at risk of HIV infection are black African women aged 20 - 34 years and black African men aged 25 - 49 years. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the social determinants of HIV serostatus for these two high-risk populations. METHODS: Data from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence, and Behaviour Survey were analysed for black African women aged 20 - 34 years and black African men aged 25 - 49 years. RESULTS: Of the 6.4 million people living with HIV in SA in 2012, 1.8 million (28%) were black women aged 20 - 34 years and 1.9 million (30%) black men aged 25 - 49 years. In 2012, they constituted 58% of the total HIV-positive population and 48% of the newly infected population. Low socioeconomic status (SES) was strongly associated (p<0.001) with being HIV-positive among black women aged 20 - 34 years, and was marginally significant among black men aged 25 - 49 years (p<0.1). CONCLUSION: Low SES is a critical social determinant for HIV infection among the high-risk groups of black African women aged 20 - 34 years and black African men aged 25 - 49 years. Targeted interventions for these key populations should prioritise socioeconomic empowerment, access to formal housing and services, access to higher education, and broad economic transformation.

A Comparison of South African National HIV Incidence Estimates: A Critical Appraisal of Different Methods.

BACKGROUND: The interpretation of HIV prevalence trends is increasingly difficult as antiretroviral treatment programs expand. Reliable HIV incidence estimates are critical to monitoring transmission trends and guiding an effective national response to the epidemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a range of methods to estimate HIV incidence in South Africa: (i) an incidence testing algorithm applying the Limiting-Antigen Avidity Assay (LAg-Avidity EIA) in combination with antiretroviral drug and HIV viral load testing; (ii) a modelling technique based on the synthetic cohort principle; and (iii) two dynamic mathematical models, the EPP/Spectrum model package and the Thembisa model. Overall, the different incidence estimation methods were in broad agreement on HIV incidence estimates among persons aged 15-49 years in 2012. The assay-based method produced slightly higher estimates of incidence, 1.72% (95% CI 1.38 - 2.06), compared with the mathematical models, 1.47% (95% CI 1.23 - 1.72) in Thembisa and 1.52% (95% CI 1.43 - 1.62) in EPP/Spectrum, and slightly lower estimates of incidence compared to the synthetic cohort, 1.9% (95% CI 0.8 - 3.1) over the period from 2008 to 2012. Among youth aged 15-24 years, a declining trend in HIV incidence was estimated by all three mathematical estimation methods. CONCLUSIONS: The multi-method comparison showed similar levels and trends in HIV incidence and validated the estimates provided by the assay-based incidence testing algorithm. Our results confirm that South Africa is the country with the largest number of new HIV infections in the world, with about 1 000 new infections occurring each day among adults aged 15-49 years in 2012.