The socio-spatial determinants of COVID-19 diffusion: the impact of globalisation, settlement characteristics and population.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is an emergent infectious disease that has spread geographically to become a global pandemic. While much research focuses on the epidemiological and virological aspects of COVID-19 transmission, there remains an important gap in knowledge regarding the drivers of geographical diffusion between places, in particular at the global scale. Here, we use quantile regression to model the roles of globalisation, human settlement and population characteristics as socio-spatial determinants of reported COVID-19 diffusion over a six-week period in March and April 2020. Our exploratory analysis is based on reported COVID-19 data published by Johns Hopkins University which, despite its limitations, serves as the best repository of reported COVID-19 cases across nations. RESULTS: The quantile regression model suggests that globalisation, settlement, and population characteristics related to high human mobility and interaction predict reported disease diffusion. Human development level (HDI) and total population predict COVID-19 diffusion in countries with a high number of total reported cases (per million) whereas larger household size, older populations, and globalisation tied to human interaction predict COVID-19 diffusion in countries with a low number of total reported cases (per million). Population density, and population characteristics such as total population, older populations, and household size are strong predictors in early weeks but have a muted impact over time on reported COVID-19 diffusion. In contrast, the impacts of interpersonal and trade globalisation are enhanced over time, indicating that human mobility may best explain sustained disease diffusion. CONCLUSIONS: Model results confirm that globalisation, settlement and population characteristics, and variables tied to high human mobility lead to greater reported disease diffusion. These outcomes serve to inform suppression strategies, particularly as they are related to anticipated relocation diffusion from more- to less-developed countries and regions, and hierarchical diffusion from countries with higher population and density. It is likely that many of these processes are replicated at smaller geographical scales both within countries and within regions. Epidemiological strategies must therefore be tailored according to human mobility patterns, as well as countries' settlement and population characteristics. We suggest that limiting human mobility to the greatest extent practical will best restrain COVID-19 diffusion, which in the absence of widespread vaccination may be one of the best lines of epidemiological defense.

Enhancing the adaptive capacity for urban sustainability: A bottom-up approach to understanding the urban social system in China.

Solutions that effectively promote sustainable development in urban environments require an understanding of the complexity of human-environment interactions. This paper adopted a systems-based framework to understanding how social, organisational, and environmental factors interact within an urban system in China. Drawing upon a case study from the industrial city of Jinchang, it applied a qualitative bottom-up approach to understand these key factors operating from three perspectives: the commitment of stakeholders, institutional development and personal development of social systems. It revealed that decision-making mechanisms play a key role in improving the sustainability of governance, and that public-private cooperation and public participation are critical for innovative knowledge-based strategies. The key for improving institutional development is to reform the evaluation system of governance thus enhancing the capacities of decision and policy makers, and consequently improve the process of decision-making. Cultural and personal development are important soft power components that influence individual pro-environmental behaviour and performance toward sustainability. The results demonstrated how, in a Chinese context, the urban social system can be understood and urban sustainability can be promoted through environmental adaptation supported by joint efforts from governments, businesses, society and individuals. In this, China does not differ from other nations in spite of significant differences in cultural and political systems. This study contributed to a better understanding of complex urban systems, providing a bottom-up approach and knowledge for enhancing the adaptive capacity toward urban sustainability.

The role of visa class in the location choices of immigrants in Australia at the regional and neighbourhood scales.

Australia's pro-immigration policies have played a vital role in national population growth, serving to address what would otherwise be chronic labour shortages and population ageing. While migrants to Australian have shown a clear preference for cities and tend to locate with co-ethnics, variations by visa class-employment, family reunification, and asylum-have yet to be fully explored. This paper aims to identify variations in settlement patterns of immigrants in Australia by visa types and the factors underpinning these choices, paying particular attention to ethnic networks and employment opportunities. We apply a series of negative binomial regressions to aggregate census data linked to visa status. At the suburb level, our results show the importance of the presence of compatriots in shaping the location choices of family migrants, with the exception of skilled and humanitarian immigrants from China, Malaysia and Thailand. At the regional level, skilled migrants, including skilled regional migrants, respond to employment opportunities to a greater extent than family and humanitarian migrants.

Socio-spatial relations observed in the global city network of firms.

One of the prevailing approaches to the study of the global economy is the analysis of global city networks based on the activities of multinational firms. Research in this vein generally conceptualises cities as nodes, and the intra-firm relations between them as ties, forming the building blocks for globally scaled interurban networks. While such an approach has provided a valuable heuristic for understanding how cities are globally connected, and how the global economy can be conceived of as a network of cities, there is a lack of understanding as to how and why cities are connected, and which factors contribute to the existence of ties between cities. Here, we explain how five distinct socio-spatial dimensions contribute to global city network structure through their diverse effects on interurban dyads. Based on data from 13,583 multinational firms with 163,821 international subsidiary locations drawn from 208 global securities exchanges, we hypothesise how regional, linguistic, industrial, developmental, and command & control relations may contribute to network structure. We then test these by applying an exponential random graph model (ERGM) to explain how each dimension may contribute to cities' embeddedness within the overall network. Though all are shown to shape interurban relations to some extent, we find that two cities sharing a common industrial base are more likely to be connected. The ERGM also reveals a strong core-periphery structure in that cities in middle- and low-income countries are more reliant on connectivity than those in high-income countries. Our findings indicate that, despite claims seeking to de-emphasise the top-heavy organisational structure of the global urban economic network, interurban relations are characterised by uneven global development in which socio-spatial embeddedness manifests through a combination of similarity (homophily) and difference (heterophily) as determined by heterogeneous power relationships underlying global systems of production, exchange and consumption.

The structural architecture of international industry networks in the global economy.

Globalisation continuously produces novel economic relationships mediated by flows of goods, services, capital, and information between countries. The activity of multinational corporations (MNCs) has become a primary driver of globalisation, shaping these relationships through vast networks of firms and their subsidiaries. Extensive empirical research has suggested that globalisation is not a singular process, and that variation in the intensity of international economic interactions can be captured by 'multiple globalisations', however how this differs across industry sectors has remained unclear. This paper analyses how sectoral variation in the 'structural architecture' of international economic relations can be understood using a combination of social network analysis (SNA) measures based on firm-subsidiary ownership linkages. Applying an approach that combines network-level measures (Density, Clustering, Degree, Assortativity) in ways yet to be explored in the spatial networks literature, a typology of four idealised international network structures is presented to allow for comparison between sectors. All sectoral networks were found to be disassortative, indicating that international networks based on intraorganisational ties are characterised by a core-periphery structure, with professional services sectors such as Banks and Insurance being the most hierarchically differentiated. Retail sector networks, including Food & Staples Retailing, are the least clustered while the two most clustered networks-Materials and Capital Goods-have also the highest average degree, evidence of their extensive globalisations. Our findings suggest that the multiple globalisations characterising international economic interactions can be better understood through the 'structural architecture' of sectoral variation, which result from the advantages conferred by cross-border activity within each.