Opportunities for behavioral rescue under rapid environmental change.

Laboratory measurements of physiological and demographic tolerances are important in understanding the impact of climate change on species diversity; however, it has been recognized that forecasts based solely on these laboratory estimates overestimate risk by omitting the capacity for species to utilize microclimatic variation via behavioral adjustments in activity patterns or habitat choice. The complex, and often context-dependent nature, of microclimate utilization has been an impediment to the advancement of general predictive models. Here, we overcome this impediment and estimate the potential impact of warming on the fitness of ectotherms using a benefit/cost trade-off derived from the simple and broadly documented thermal performance curve and a generalized cost function. Our framework reveals that, for certain environments, the cost of behavioral thermoregulation can be reduced as warming occurs, enabling behavioral buffering (e.g., the capacity for behavior to ameliorate detrimental impacts) and "behavioral rescue" from extinction in extreme cases. By applying our framework to operative temperature and physiological data collected at an extremely fine spatial scale in an African lizard, we show that new behavioral opportunities may emerge. Finally, we explore large-scale geographic differences in the impact of behavior on climate-impact projections using a global dataset of 38 insect species. These multiple lines of inference indicate that understanding the existing relationship between thermal characteristics (e.g., spatial configuration, spatial heterogeneity, and modal temperature) is essential for improving estimates of extinction risk.

Analysis of pelagic species decline in the upper San Francisco Estuary using multivariate autoregressive modeling (MAR).

Four species of pelagic fish of particular management concern in the upper San Francisco Estuary, California, USA, have declined precipitously since ca. 2002: delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), longfin smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys), striped bass (Morone saxatilis), and threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). The estuary has been monitored since the late 1960s with extensive collection of data on the fishes, their pelagic prey, phytoplankton biomass, invasive species, and physical factors. We used multivariate autoregressive (MAR) modeling to discern the main factors responsible for the declines. An expert-elicited model was built to describe the system. Fifty-four relationships were built into the model, only one of which was of uncertain direction a priori. Twenty-eight of the proposed relationships were strongly supported by or consistent with the data, while 26 were close to zero (not supported by the data but not contrary to expectations). The position of the 2 per thousand isohaline (a measure of the physical response of the estuary to freshwater flow) and increased water clarity over the period of analyses were two factors affecting multiple declining taxa (including fishes and the fishes' main zooplankton prey): Our results were relatively robust with respect to the form of stock-recruitment model used and to inclusion of subsidiary covariates but may be enhanced by using detailed state-space models that describe more fully the life-history dynamics of the declining species.

Split between two worlds: automated sensing reveals links between above- and belowground social networks in a free-living mammal.

Many animals socialize in two or more major ecological contexts. In nature, these contexts often involve one situation in which space is more constrained (e.g. shared refuges, sleeping cliffs, nests, dens or burrows) and another situation in which animal movements are relatively free (e.g. in open spaces lacking architectural constraints). Although it is widely recognized that an individual's characteristics may shape its social life, the extent to which architecture constrains social decisions within and between habitats remains poorly understood. Here we developed a novel, automated-monitoring system to study the effects of personality, life-history stage and sex on the social network structure of a facultatively social mammal, the California ground squirrel (Otospermophilus beecheyi) in two distinct contexts: aboveground where space is relatively open and belowground where it is relatively constrained by burrow architecture. Aboveground networks reflected affiliative social interactions whereas belowground networks reflected burrow associations. Network structure in one context (belowground), along with preferential juvenile-adult associations, predicted structure in a second context (aboveground). Network positions of individuals were generally consistent across years (within contexts) and between ecological contexts (within years), suggesting that individual personalities and behavioural syndromes, respectively, contribute to the social network structure of these free-living mammals. Direct ties (strength) tended to be stronger in belowground networks whereas more indirect paths (betweenness centrality) flowed through individuals in aboveground networks. Belowground, females fostered significantly more indirect paths than did males. Our findings have important potential implications for disease and information transmission, offering new insights into the multiple factors contributing to social structures across ecological contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches for uncovering the impacts of architecture on collective behaviour'.

Error management in plant allocation to herbivore defense.

Herbivores can greatly reduce plant fitness. Error management theory (EMT) predicts the evolution of adaptive plant defensive strategies that err towards making less-costly errors so as to avoid making rare, costly errors. EMT provides a common framework for understanding observed levels of variation in plant defense among and within species.