Visualization for epidemiological modelling: challenges, solutions, reflections and recommendations.

We report on an ongoing collaboration between epidemiological modellers and visualization researchers by documenting and reflecting upon knowledge constructs-a series of ideas, approaches and methods taken from existing visualization research and practice-deployed and developed to support modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Structured independent commentary on these efforts is synthesized through iterative reflection to develop: evidence of the effectiveness and value of visualization in this context; open problems upon which the research communities may focus; guidance for future activity of this type and recommendations to safeguard the achievements and promote, advance, secure and prepare for future collaborations of this kind. In describing and comparing a series of related projects that were undertaken in unprecedented conditions, our hope is that this unique report, and its rich interactive supplementary materials, will guide the scientific community in embracing visualization in its observation, analysis and modelling of data as well as in disseminating findings. Equally we hope to encourage the visualization community to engage with impactful science in addressing its emerging data challenges. If we are successful, this showcase of activity may stimulate mutually beneficial engagement between communities with complementary expertise to address problems of significance in epidemiology and beyond. See https://ramp-vis.github.io/RAMPVIS-PhilTransA-Supplement/. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.

Rethinking map legends with visualization.

This design paper presents new guidance for creating map legends in a dynamic environment. Our contribution is a set of guidelines for legend design in a visualization context and a series of illustrative themes through which they may be expressed. These are demonstrated in an applications context through interactive software prototypes. The guidelines are derived from cartographic literature and in liaison with EDINA who provide digital mapping services for UK tertiary education. They enhance approaches to legend design that have evolved for static media with visualization by considering: selection, layout, symbols, position, dynamism and design and process. Broad visualization legend themes include: The Ground Truth Legend, The Legend as Statistical Graphic and The Map is the Legend. Together, these concepts enable us to augment legends with dynamic properties that address specific needs, rethink their nature and role and contribute to a wider re-evaluation of maps as artifacts of usage rather than statements of fact. EDINA has acquired funding to enhance their clients with visualization legends that use these concepts as a consequence of this work. The guidance applies to the design of a wide range of legends and keys used in cartography and information visualization.

Configuring hierarchical layouts to address research questions.

We explore the effects of selecting alternative layouts in hierarchical displays that show multiple aspects of large multivariate datasets, including spatial and temporal characteristics. Hierarchical displays of this type condition a dataset by multiple discrete variable values, creating nested graphical summaries of the resulting subsets in which size, shape and colour can be used to show subset properties. These 'small multiples' are ordered by the conditioning variable values and are laid out hierarchically using dimensional stacking. Crucially, we consider the use of different layouts at different hierarchical levels, so that the coordinates of the plane can be used more effectively to draw attention to trends and anomalies in the data. We argue that these layouts should be informed by the type of conditioning variable and by the research question being explored. We focus on space-filling rectangular layouts that provide data-dense and rich overviews of data to address research questions posed in our exploratory analysis of spatial and temporal aspects of property sales in London. We develop a notation ('HiVE') that describes visualisation and layout states and provides reconfiguration operators, demonstrate its use for reconfiguring layouts to pursue research questions and provide guidelines for this process. We demonstrate how layouts can be related through animated transitions to reduce the cognitive load associated with their reconfiguration whilst supporting the exploratory process.

Interactive visual exploration of a large spatio-temporal dataset: reflections on a geovisualization mashup.

Exploratory visual analysis is useful for the preliminary investigation of large structured, multifaceted spatio-temporaldatasets. This process requires the selection and aggregation of records by time, space and attribute, the ability to transform data and the flexibility to apply appropriate visual encodings and interactions. We propose an approach inspired by geographical 'mashups' in which freely-available functionality and data are loosely but flexibly combined using de facto exchange standards. Our case study combines MySQL, PHP and the LandSerf GIS to allow Google Earth to be used for visual synthesis and interaction with encodings described in KML. This approach is applied to the exploration of a log of 1.42 million requests made of a mobile directory service. Novel combinations of interaction and visual encoding are developed including spatial 'tag clouds', 'tag maps', 'data dials' and multi-scale density surfaces. Four aspects of the approach are informally evaluated: the visual encodings employed, their success in the visual exploration of the dataset, the specific tools used and the 'mashup' approach. Preliminary findings will be beneficial to others considering using mashups for visualization. The specific techniques developed may be more widely applied to offer insights into the structure of multifarious spatio-temporal data of the type explored here.

Small Multiples with Gaps.

Small multiples enable comparison by providing different views of a single data set in a dense and aligned manner. A common frame defines each view, which varies based upon values of a conditioning variable. An increasingly popular use of this technique is to project two-dimensional locations into a gridded space (e.g. grid maps), using the underlying distribution both as the conditioning variable and to determine the grid layout. Using whitespace in this layout has the potential to carry information, especially in a geographic context. Yet, the effects of doing so on the spatial properties of the original units are not understood. We explore the design space offered by such small multiples with gaps. We do so by constructing a comprehensive suite of metrics that capture properties of the layout used to arrange the small multiples for comparison (e.g. compactness and alignment) and the preservation of the original data (e.g. distance, topology and shape). We study these metrics in geographic data sets with varying properties and numbers of gaps. We use simulated annealing to optimize for each metric and measure the effects on the others. To explore these effects systematically, we take a new approach, developing a system to visualize this design space using a set of interactive matrices. We find that adding small amounts of whitespace to small multiple arrays improves some of the characteristics of 2D layouts, such as shape, distance and direction. This comes at the cost of other metrics, such as the retention of topology. Effects vary according to the input maps, with degree of variation in size of input regions found to be a factor. Optima exist for particular metrics in many cases, but at different amounts of whitespace for different maps. We suggest multiple metrics be used in optimized layouts, finding topology to be a primary factor in existing manually-crafted solutions, followed by a trade-off between shape and displacement. But the rich range of possible optimized layouts leads us to challenge single-solution thinking; we suggest to consider alternative optimized layouts for small multiples with gaps. Key to our work is the systematic, quantified and visual approach to exploring design spaces when facing a trade-off between many competing criteria-an approach likely to be of value to the analysis of other design spaces.

Map LineUps: Effects of spatial structure on graphical inference.

Fundamental to the effective use of visualization as an analytic and descriptive tool is the assurance that presenting data visually provides the capability of making inferences from what we see. This paper explores two related approaches to quantifying the confidence we may have in making visual inferences from mapped geospatial data. We adapt Wickham et al.'s 'Visual Line-up' method as a direct analogy with Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) and propose a new approach for generating more credible spatial null hypotheses. Rather than using as a spatial null hypothesis the unrealistic assumption of complete spatial randomness, we propose spatially autocorrelated simulations as alternative nulls. We conduct a set of crowdsourced experiments (n=361) to determine the just noticeable difference (JND) between pairs of choropleth maps of geographic units controlling for spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I statistic) and geometric configuration (variance in spatial unit area). Results indicate that people's abilities to perceive differences in spatial autocorrelation vary with baseline autocorrelation structure and the geometric configuration of geographic units. These results allow us, for the first time, to construct a visual equivalent of statistical power for geospatial data. Our JND results add to those provided in recent years by Klippel et al. (2011), Harrison et al. (2014) and Kay & Heer (2015) for correlation visualization. Importantly, they provide an empirical basis for an improved construction of visual line-ups for maps and the development of theory to inform geospatial tests of graphical inference.

Visualizing Multiple Variables Across Scale and Geography.

Comparing multiple variables to select those that effectively characterize complex entities is important in a wide variety of domains - geodemographics for example. Identifying variables that correlate is a common practice to remove redundancy, but correlation varies across space, with scale and over time, and the frequently used global statistics hide potentially important differentiating local variation. For more comprehensive and robust insights into multivariate relations, these local correlations need to be assessed through various means of defining locality. We explore the geography of this issue, and use novel interactive visualization to identify interdependencies in multivariate data sets to support geographically informed multivariate analysis. We offer terminology for considering scale and locality, visual techniques for establishing the effects of scale on correlation and a theoretical framework through which variation in geographic correlation with scale and locality are addressed explicitly. Prototype software demonstrates how these contributions act together. These techniques enable multiple variables and their geographic characteristics to be considered concurrently as we extend visual parameter space analysis (vPSA) to the spatial domain. We find variable correlations to be sensitive to scale and geography to varying degrees in the context of energy-based geodemographics. This sensitivity depends upon the calculation of locality as well as the geographical and statistical structure of the variable.

Attribute Signatures: Dynamic Visual Summaries for Analyzing Multivariate Geographical Data.

The visual analysis of geographically referenced datasets with a large number of attributes is challenging due to the fact that the characteristics of the attributes are highly dependent upon the locations at which they are focussed, and the scale and time at which they are measured. Specialized interactive visual methods are required to help analysts in understanding the characteristics of the attributes when these multiple aspects are considered concurrently. Here, we develop attribute signatures-interactively crafted graphics that show the geographic variability of statistics of attributes through which the extent of dependency between the attributes and geography can be visually explored. We compute a number of statistical measures, which can also account for variations in time and scale, and use them as a basis for our visualizations. We then employ different graphical configurations to show and compare both continuous and discrete variation of location and scale. Our methods allow variation in multiple statistical summaries of multiple attributes to be considered concurrently and geographically, as evidenced by examples in which the census geography of London and the wider UK are explored.

Creative user-centered visualization design for energy analysts and modelers.

We enhance a user-centered design process with techniques that deliberately promote creativity to identify opportunities for the visualization of data generated by a major energy supplier. Visualization prototypes developed in this way prove effective in a situation whereby data sets are largely unknown and requirements open - enabling successful exploration of possibilities for visualization in Smart Home data analysis. The process gives rise to novel designs and design metaphors including data sculpting. It suggests: that the deliberate use of creativity techniques with data stakeholders is likely to contribute to successful, novel and effective solutions; that being explicit about creativity may contribute to designers developing creative solutions; that using creativity techniques early in the design process may result in a creative approach persisting throughout the process. The work constitutes the first systematic visualization design for a data rich source that will be increasingly important to energy suppliers and consumers as Smart Meter technology is widely deployed. It is novel in explicitly employing creativity techniques at the requirements stage of visualization design and development, paving the way for further use and study of creativity methods in visualization design.

Exploring uncertainty in geodemographics with interactive graphics.

Geodemographic classifiers characterise populations by categorising geographical areas according to the demographic and lifestyle characteristics of those who live within them. The dimension-reducing quality of such classifiers provides a simple and effective means of characterising population through a manageable set of categories, but inevitably hides heterogeneity, which varies within and between the demographic categories and geographical areas, sometimes systematically. This may have implications for their use, which is widespread in government and commerce for planning, marketing and related activities. We use novel interactive graphics to delve into OAC--a free and open geodemographic classifier that classifies the UK population in over 200,000 small geographical areas into 7 super-groups, 21 groups and 52 sub-groups. Our graphics provide access to the original 41 demographic variables used in the classification and the uncertainty associated with the classification of each geographical area on-demand. It also supports comparison geographically and by category. This serves the dual purpose of helping understand the classifier itself leading to its more informed use and providing a more comprehensive view of population in a comprehensible manner. We assess the impact of these interactive graphics on experienced OAC users who explored the details of the classification, its uncertainty and the nature of between--and within--class variation and then reflect on their experiences. Visualization of the complexities and subtleties of the classification proved to be a thought-provoking exercise both confirming and challenging users' understanding of population, the OAC classifier and the way it is used in their organisations. Users identified three contexts for which the techniques were deemed useful in the context of local government, confirming the validity of the proposed methods.

BallotMaps: detecting name bias in alphabetically ordered ballot papers.

The relationship between candidates' position on a ballot paper and vote rank is explored in the case of 5000 candidates for the UK 2010 local government elections in the Greater London area. This design study uses hierarchical spatially arranged graphics to represent two locations that affect candidates at very different scales: the geographical areas for which they seek election and the spatial location of their names on the ballot paper. This approach allows the effect of position bias to be assessed; that is, the degree to which the position of a candidate's name on the ballot paper influences the number of votes received by the candidate, and whether this varies geographically. Results show that position bias was significant enough to influence rank order of candidates, and in the case of many marginal electoral wards, to influence who was elected to government. Position bias was observed most strongly for Liberal Democrat candidates but present for all major political parties. Visual analysis of classification of candidate names by ethnicity suggests that this too had an effect on votes received by candidates, in some cases overcoming alphabetic name bias. The results found contradict some earlier research suggesting that alphabetic name bias was not sufficiently significant to affect electoral outcome and add new evidence for the geographic and ethnicity influences on voting behaviour. The visual approach proposed here can be applied to a wider range of electoral data and the patterns identified and hypotheses derived from them could have significant implications for the design of ballot papers and the conduct of fair elections.